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Austria and Central Europe
ReseaRch yeaRbook 2009

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AQ Research
Austria and Central Europe
RESEARCH YEARBOOK 2009
ACE REPORT 2009.indd 1 23/2/09 13:41:36
Published by: AQ Research Ltd
40 Bowling Green Lane,
London EC1R 0NE
Tel: +44 (0)20 7689 8765
Fax: +44 (0)20 7415 7058
Email: info@aqresearch.com
www.aqresearch.com
Managing Director: William Russell-Smith
Contributor: David O’Hara
Technical Director: Peter Linnell
Data Team Leader: Vanessa Clarke
Research Director: Albert Alonzo
Administration: Roy Wilson
Design: Forshaw Design Ltd
Printed by: DG3, London
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be
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recording, or otherwise, without the prior permission of AQ
Research. Although AQ Research has made every effort to
ensure the accuracy of this publication, it cannot accept any
legal responsibility for consequences that may arise from errors
or omissions or any opinions or advice given. The publication is
not a substitute for professional advice on a specific transaction.
ISSN: 1462-379X.
©2009 AQ Research Ltd.
AUSTRIA
AND CENTRAL
EUROPE
ReseaRch yeaRbook 2009
INTRODUCTION ........................................... 4
AQ METhODOLOgy ..................................... 5
AUSTRIA ......................................................... 7
CROATIA/CZECh REPUBLIC.................... 11
hUNgARy .................................................... 12
POLAND ........................................................ 13
contents
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009
3

4
introDuction
Research tested in
turbulent times
Markets across the world were subject to some of
the most volatile trading in working memory during
our review period. this climaxed in the fourth
quarter following the demise of lehman brothers
in the usa. in austria and central europe, the
focus of this report, markets that only recently
reached maturity were hit hard by the collapse in
confidence and outright panic that followed. These
markets were previously the darlings of western
european and overseas investors, looking for the
winners from globalisation and increasingly affluent
local populations. however, the trials of 2008
precipitated huge declines in the region’s main
indices. Worst affected was the austrian atX,
which recorded a catastrophic 61.2% decline during
the review period. the hungarian cthX was off
by 55%. poland’s WiG 20 fell 48%.
During this time normal market conditions and
behaviour disappeared. if international investors
perceive company investments in central and eastern
europe riskier than domestic opportunities, the
possibility for a quick recovery is limited. one thing
this crisis has made apparent is that willingness to
take a risk is becoming rarer across all industries. the
panic and retrenchment amongst investors resulted
in share price movements that reflected nothing
of the company’s underlying fundamentals. We
do not believe that in these circumstances an rQ
(recommendation) analysis would provide a useful
indication of the quality of research that has been
performed. hence aQ research’s austria and central
europe research yearbook has been prepared using
an aQ analysis, our measure of the accuracy and
reliability of broker forecasts.
This is also the first yearbook report created
using our outperformance measure. here we have
scored each research provider for accuracy on a
Overall
best by average accuracy: 3 eligible
AQ No of No of
Rank/Broker Outperformance Forecasts Top AQs
Erste Group 7.0 61 29
Raiffeisen 6.3 47 10
sentiment index - Overall
-0.5
Dec-07
Scale range -2 (strong sell) to +2 (strong buy)
stock under coverage and compared that accuracy
(aQ) score against the average of other brokers on
that stock. We have ranked brokers on this measure
of outperformance.
another change to our report this year is our
treatment of croatia. since our last report this has
become a thinner research market, making a broker
results table less meaningful. We have highlighted the
winning analysts on researched croatian companies
however and have incorporated croatian research
into our overall results.
erste Group’s consistency in the quality of their
coverage has earned the regional specialist first
place in this analysis of financial research in Austria,
croatia, czech republic, hungary and poland. not
only does erste have a large research coverage
across the region, its team managed to seal either
first or second place for the quality of its research in
each country in this report. this strong performance
carries over to our analyst table where four of the
region’s best analysts are erste staff. remarkably,
Günter hohberger managed six top scores on just
seven stocks included in this analysis, with each of
cOuntry winners
Country Winner
Austria UniCredit Global Research
Czech Republic Raiffeisen
Hungary Erste Group
Poland BRE Bank Securities
austria & central europe ReseaRch yeaRbook 2009 AQ Research
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
Jun-08
All analysts
Positive RQ analysts
Dec-08

AQ Research
www.erstegroup.com
aQ MethoDoloGy
aQ Methodology
The AQ measure is designed to measure the accuracy of an analyst’s financial forecast. We use the eps as the benchmark
measure because that is what is used by the investment research industry. Eps itself is an awkward figure, as there can be
different opinions at what level to take the earnings, and how many shares to consider. to get around this problem, we take
the so-called headline eps, the figure that by convention the company reports and the figure that is used in compiling the
consensus.
the new aQ methodology for determining the accuracy of earnings estimates was launched at the beginning of 2007,
following consultations with the industry. The significant change is that it looks at the “error” of the analyst, as expressed by
the shaded area on the eps chart below to identify the best forecasting analysts.
the default values are used in the publications. When used in aQ online, the customer can set their own values not only
for the annual weightings but also for any estimate, e.g. to highlight analysts who have better early forecasting accuracy during
any particular period.
aQ scores are in the range 0-100. they can be interpreted as follows:
>60: small deviations in actual eps vs. the spread of forecasts
(generally below 5%) for the past 2 years
40-60: Forecasts falling into this range indicate either
deviations of actual eps vs. forecasts up to 10% over past 2 years
20-40: Deviations of actual vs. forecast eps typically between
10% and 15%, possibly for one of past 2 years. analysts who have
initiated within past 2 years can also have low scores

6
introDuction
these being covered by at least one other analyst.
erste’s insurance specialist christoph schultes
finished runner-up to his colleague, performing
better than the analyst average on each company
under his examination.
as we make our way into 2009, market
observers are left pondering whether the markets
will continue to worsen and if there is any catalyst
that will bring back growth. Michał Marczak is
head of research with poland specialist bre bank
securities and attributes recent market falls to
a number of key issues. “Without doubt a lot of
investors are afraid of the sovereign debt situation
in central europe. We think that because poland has
a smaller share of its debts denominated in foreign
currencies it is better placed than hungary, lithuania
and the Ukraine.” Secondly, investor attitudes to the
risk have damaged share prices. “Company earnings
here have fallen on average between thirty and
forty percent but share prices are down seventy
percent. Most investors do not look at fundamentals
and earnings now but are focused on possible
Overall cOnsensus beaters
future scenarios and it is very easy to construct a
very negative scenario. Foreign investors seem to be
discounting a 1% contraction in poland’s GDp this
year.” If the withdrawal of foreign capital has led to
the declines we have seen in these markets, what
would have to change for them to return? “There
are two important factors here” says Marczak.
“First, the strength of the German economy and
secondly the government debt markets. countries
in this region need to demonstrate they can repay
their debts.” In a market where volumes are low
and company fundamentals have little influence
on investor behaviour, what value can be added
through research? “Investors are less interested in
company research now and there is a real focus on
macro research. they like to read big stories, such
as ‘poland is bad or good’ and trade based on their
conclusions.”
With markets making new multi-year lows
around the world, the opportunity for research is
enormous. however, if fund managers do not value
and pay for research, will it be produced?
Analysts who have, on average, beaten the average score on the stocks they cover by the largest margin.
Score Analyst Broker Estimates Top
21.9 Günter Hohberger Erste Group 7 6
18.1 Christoph Schultes Erste Group 4 3
14.5 Peter Bauernfried UniCredit Global Research 7 4
14.5 Alfred Reisenberger Cheuvreux 5 2
11.9 Hugo Swann Credit Suisse 5 0
11.8 Istvan Mate-Toth Credit Suisse 3 1
10.7 Gernot Jany Erste Group 5 2
10.3 Bernd Maurer Raiffeisen 4 2
10.2 Teresa Schinwald Raiffeisen 3 1
10.1 Gerald Walek Erste Group 7 3
9.4 Franz Hoerl Erste Group 5 0
8.9 Kamil Kliszcz BRE Bank Securities 7 3
8.9 Marta Jezewska BRE Bank Securities 8 4
7.4 Michal Marczak BRE Bank Securities 7 4
6.9 Tamas Pletser ING Financial Markets 6 3
6.9 Daniel Lion Erste Group 4 2
6.5 Anna Bossong UniCredit Global Research 4 2
6.0 Bartosz Orzechowski ING Financial Markets 7 5
5.3 Vladimira Urbankova Erste Group 8 5
5.3 Tomasz Czyz ING Financial Markets 4 2
5.2 Ákos Herczenik Raiffeisen 4 0
5.0 Piotr Palenik ING Financial Markets 12 4
4.8 Peter Fazakas Buda Cash 3 1
4.6 Piotr Lopaciuk Erste Group 6 5
4.2 Robert Kerekes ING Financial Markets 3 0
austria & central europe ReseaRch yeaRbook 2009 AQ Research

aUstRIa
l Peter bauernfried excelled with research on
Palfinger, BWT, Semperit and ktM Power
sports. On Palfinger, his 2007 forecast was much
closer to the final result throughout our review
while other analysts were far more positive
early on about the company’s prospects. his win
on semperit was assisted by the quality of his
forecast made on the 2006 financial year, which
was easily more accurate than his peers’.
l Unicredit global Research topped our table for
both the best forecasts and the most company
winners. after a number of years amalgamating
a european research operation, unicredit has
established itself as a leading research provider
on the continent. unicredit analysts managed a
superb haul of twenty top aQ scores on their
coverage of twenty-eight.
l Vladimira Urbankova of erste group managed
two top aQ scores, delivering the best forecasts
on Intercell and sanochemia Pharmazeutika.
Despite managing a large score, gerald Walek
managed only second place on bWt, though
he will take some comfort from his win on
Schoeller-Bleckmann Oilfield.
l unicredit also received top marks on austria’s
tOp aQ brOkers: 5 eligible
AQ No of No of
Rank/Broker Outperformance Forecasts Top AQs
UniCredit Global Res 9.88 28 20
Erste Group 5.62 23 5
Raiffeisen 4.54 26 5
cOnsensus beaters - austria
AQ Research
sentiment index - austria
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
Dec-07
Jun-08
All analysts
Positive RQ analysts
Scale range -2 (strong sell) to +2 (strong buy)
Dec-08
two most heavily researched companies, oMV and
telekom austria. Robert Réthy’s win on oMV
was thanks in part to a collection of forecasts
on the 2007 results, issued in the second half
of 2006. these later proved far more accurate
than the competition. harald Weghofer won on
telekom austria thanks to a collection of very
accurate forecasts ten percent lower than the
consensus.
l erste Group is second placed in this year’s
forecast analysis, following a win in last year’s
recommendation examination. unicredit, (fourth
place in 2008) is winner on the forecast metric.
l bernd Maurer of raiffeisen scored well on
constantia Verpackungen and Mayr-melnhof
karton. Maurer also produced accurate
estimates on Flughafen Wien, thanks to a strong
early estimate that was well ahead of consensus
and very close to the final result.
Analysts who have, on average, beaten the average score on the stocks they cover by the largest margin.
Score Analyst Broker Estimates Top
18.1 Christoph Schultes Erste Group 4 3
14.5 Peter Bauernfried UniCredit Global Research 7 4
14.5 Alfred Reisenberger Cheuvreux 5 2
10.3 Bernd Maurer Raiffeisen 4 2
10.1 Gerald Walek Erste Group 7 3
9.4 Franz Hoerl Erste Group 5 0
3.3 Peter Szopo Oppenheim Research 6 1
2.5 Roland Rapelius Berenberg Bank 8 2
2.3 Harald Weghofer UniCredit Global Research 7 2
1.0 Kai Malte Klose Ciia Dresdner Kleinwort 3 0
0.7 Christine Reitsamer Oppenheim Research 6 0
austria
Christoph
Schultes
Peter
Bauernfried
Gerald Walek
Christine
Reitsamer
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009
7

l A unique concept created with and for
brokers
l Exponential growth for 8 years
l 4 partner Stock Exchanges
l 42 European partner Brokers
l 13,000 one-to-one meetings organised
in 2008
l Covering the whole of Europe
l With 800 listed European companies
participating in 2008
For Brokers:
l A way to extend their client base in Europe
l Reinforce relationships with issuers,introducing
new investors.
For Investors:
l Meet a large number of companies of potential
interest.
For 2009:
l 20 Midcap Events planned in Europe
l New markets : Latin America, Israel and Russia
So ME TESTIMonY o F THE v A luE WE
Brokers/Stock Exchanges
‘The Small & Midcap Events are a rare opportunity to
gather and meet with our clients and prospects, listed
companies and institutional investors.
To invited companies and partner brokers, these biannual
events enhance our position among growth companies
and allow us to showcase our team and our know-how.’
AVENIR FINANCE
‘Thank you for your collaboration on this event.
Companies are very happy with the organization of the
forum and the one-to-one meetings.
Thanks for everything. We look forward to working
together in the future.’
BolsA dE MAdRId
‘The event has met our expectations and we would like to
thank you and your team.’
BANEsTo BolsA s.V.B. sA
‘Thanks a lot and ‘bravo’! Most particularly this year in
these very difficult markets!’
INVEsT sECURITIEs
‘I would like to take this opportunity to thank you for the
well organised event of last week...I greatly appreciate all
of your efforts and look forward to our next event!’
TEB YATIRIM
‘I am very grateful and want to thank you and all your
team for organising this successful event.’
NATIoNAl P&K sECURITIEs - NBGI
‘Thanks for the event, successful as usual!’
EURoMoBIlIARE
‘Everything went very smoothly!’
INTERMoNTE
MIn IMu M oF TIME, I n A SInglE vE nuE - In A MIn IMu M oF TIME, I n A SInglE vE nuE -

ADD Fo R ouR PARTn ERS
Listed Companies in Europe
‘Thank you for the great organization of the event. We
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HEAd oF INVEsToR RElATIoNs
‘an excellent way to optimise a day of investor relations.
An event very useful for initial meetings, it complements
roadshows perfectly.’
CoMMUNICATIoN dIRECToR
‘Thank you for including us in your well-organised event,
which we found useful, particularly with respect to our
objective of meeting new prospective investors. We look
forward to future events.’
CodERE
‘This event has enabled us to meet with many
professionals we may have been unable to meet
elsewhere, over a short space of time and all in one
place.’
GUY MAMoU-MANI – CEo oF GRoUP oPEN
‘The meetings organised for the Midcap Events help
develop a strong relationship with our former and future
investors. The expected outcome is reached.’
KATHlEEN ClARK – dIRECToR, INVEsToR RElATIoNs
soPRA GRoUP
‘I can tell you that the main criterion for SWoRD gRouP
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‘It has been our pleasure to attend this event. We were
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had the chance of meeting and we really look forward to
participating in further seminars with you in the future.
Many thanks!’
NATRA
Institutional Investors
‘I particularly appreciate the principle of the MidCap
Events which enables me to meet, in a well scheduled
programme, with a large number of companies that I did
not have time to meet during the year.’
JEAN BERRUYER – PREsIdENT oF FINANCIèRE
ARBEVEl
‘An efficient way of meeting lots of existing and potential
investments. I think your events are brilliant. Thanks!’
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‘The CF&B Communication ‘MidCap Events’ enables
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value a good knowledge of management.’
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CHAMPlAIN
‘The MidCap Events enable us to meet, in a minimum
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Contact us for more information
www.midcapevents.com
CF&B Communication
37 boulevard Haussmann
75008 PARIS
info@midcapevents.com
Caroline Gilliume
+33 (0)1 44 51 76 05
c.gilliume@cfbcom.fr
In A MIn IMu M oF TIME, I n A SInglE vE nuE - In A MIn IMu M oF TIME, I n A SInglE vE n

10
austria
Dirk Schlamp
Christian
Ludwig
Daniel Lion
Felix Ellmann
l gerald Walek’s win on schoeller-bleckmann
Oilfield came thanks to estimates that remained
consistently ahead of the consensus opinion
which for the whole of the 2007 year was well
below the final outcome. Forecasts on the
company were very closely bunched around the
consensus and brokers scored similarly. however,
research from the trio of erste Group, raiffeisen
and unicredit stood out from the rest of the
pack at the top end of our analysis.
average analyst’s
cOmpany aQ scOre analyst tOp firm aQ scOre
Agrana Beteiligungs-Aktienges 27.1 Klaus Ofner Raiffeisen 43.8
Andritz Group 53.7 Harald Weghofer UniCredit Global Research 72.0
AT&S Austria Technologie & Sys 53.8 Dirk Schlamp DZ Bank 78.4
Austriamicrosystems 20.4 Michael Foeth Bank Vontobel 26.8
Austrian Airlines 2.9 Paul Wessely UniCredit Global Research 3.6
Betandwin.com Interactive 12.4 Paul Hoffmann Oppenheim Research 17.6
Brain Force Holding 19.8 Felix Ellmann SES Research / M.M. Warburg 19.8
BWT 52.3 Peter Bauernfried UniCredit Global Research 75.2
Ca Immobilien Anlagen 17.5 Alexander Hodosi UniCredit Global Research 17.5
Constantia Verpackungen 31.3 Christian Ludwig Berenberg Bank 32.3
Conwert Immobilien Invest Ag 37.7 Alexander Hodosi UniCredit Global Research 37.7
DO & CO Restaurants & Catering 16.8 Paul Wessely UniCredit Global Research 16.8
Erste Oesterreichischen Bank 55.5 Paul Wessely UniCredit Global Research 83.6
EVN 53.4 Christoph Schultes Erste Group 64.3
FLUGHAFEN WIEN 61.4 Paul Wessely UniCredit Global Research 84.6
Immoeast Immobilien Anlagen 4.9 Alexander Hodosi UniCredit Global Research 13.4
Immofinanz Immobilien Anlagen 5.8 Remi Antonini Exane BNP Paribas 8.9
Intercell 16.0 Vladimira Urbankova Erste Group 22.3
KTM Power Sports 16.1 Bauernfried/Kastenberger UniCredit Global Research 21.8
Lenzing 19.5 Roland Rapelius Berenberg Bank 19.5
Mayr-melnhof Karton 77.0 Weghofer/Kastenberger UniCredit Global Research 83.8
OMV 46.5 Robert Réthy UniCredit Global Research 68.1
Palfinger 51.9 Peter Bauernfried UniCredit Global Research 67.9
Pankl Racing Systems 37.4 Weghofer/Kastenberger UniCredit Global Research 46.6
Raiffeisen International Bank 42.5 Paul Wessely UniCredit Global Research 57.4
RHI 47.9 Alexander Hodosi UniCredit Global Research 65.4
Rosenbauer International 41.4 Alexander Stieger Raiffeisen 50.2
S&T System Integration And Te 3.7 Daniel Lion Erste Group 7.5
Sanochemia Pharmazeutika 1.2 Vladimira Urbankova Erste Group 2.4
Schoeller-bleckmann Oilfield 47.5 Gerald Walek Erste Group 56.1
Semperit Holding 74.5 Peter Bauernfried UniCredit Global Research 89.4
Telekom Austria 57.8 Harald Weghofer UniCredit Global Research 72.6
Uniqa Versicherungen 27.2 Not Available Raiffeisen 40.7
Update Software Ag 30.5 Felix Ellmann SES Research / M.M. Warburg 30.5
Verbund 53.8 Teresa Schinwald Raiffeisen 77.0
Vienna Insurance Group 63.3 Paul Wessely UniCredit Global Research 76.4
Voest-alpine Stahl 28.0 Lepine/Brunet Exane BNP Paribas 42.2
Wienerberger Baustoff 53.0 Peter Bauernfried UniCredit Global Research 75.3
Wolford 19.1 Natalia Frey Raiffeisen 26.1
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009 AQ Research

cRoatIa
l research coverage in croatia declined since our
last report and our forecast measure is more
exclusive than the recommendation metric.
l erste group won for both companies we
performed forecast analysis on, ericsson Nikola
cZech RePUblIc
l erste group provided the largest research
coverage in the czech republic, aQ research
scored their forecast accuracy on five companies.
This year we have scores for just five Czech
companies. that said, all but Zentiva have a
decent research following.
l Komercni Bank, CEZ and cesky telecom each
have six analysts producing profit forecasts in
their research. Unipetrol was covered by four
houses in our analysis.
l last year’s country winner, erste Group slips to
second place and Raiffeisen advances to first.
the two regional specialists battled it out over
cesky telecom. Jindrich svatek’s score of 68.1
took him only narrowly ahead of erste Group’s
thomas Unger, in second place with 64.0. the
marginal difference between the two can be
attributed to the 2007 Fy.
l on komercni bank, the regionals won again for
the accuracy of their forecasts, with erste and
raiffeisen dominating. the research of erste’s
günter hohberger won out this time however,
edging svatek into second place. hohberger had
higher estimates in place for much of the year on
the company, which announced results well ahead
of the level consensus had been at any time.
l teresa schinwald secured a very narrow win
over oppenheim Research’s Matthias heck
on cez. schinwald’s win was secured by the
narrowest of margins, thanks to a lower volatility
of forecasts for future years.
AQ Research
croatia/czech republic
tesla and Podravka. Vladimira Urbankova took
the win on podravka and davor spoljar won for
ericsson nikola tesla. both stocks were contested
but research was thin, with only two firms issuing
forecasts on each company.
sentiment index - czech republic
l as no analysts covered our minimum three or
more of the czech republic’s listed companies, we
have not included an analyst table for the country.
l our forecast score (aQ) requires a more
comprehensive history than our recommendation
score (rQ). For this reason, we have more
company research scored for recommendations. a
recommendation report would have brought Philip
Morris CR, Cinema City International and ecM
Real estate INVestMeNts into this analysis.
average analyst’s
cOmpany aQ scOre analyst tOp firm aQ scOre
Cesky Telecom 39.6 Jindrich Svatek Raiffeisen 68.1
CEZ 39.8 Teresa Schinwald Raiffeisen 61.8
Komercni Banka 49.7 Günter Hohberger Erste Group 79.3
Unipetrol 2.1 Robert Réthy UniCredit Global Research 4.4
Zentiva NV 51.6 Vladimira Urbankova Erste Group 51.6
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
-0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
Dec-07
All analysts
Positive RQ analysts
Jun-08
Scale range -2 (strong sell) to +2 (strong buy)
tOp aQ brOkers: 3 eligible
Dec-08
AQ No of No of
Rank/Broker Outperformance Forecasts Top AQs
Raiffeisen 18.6 4 2
Erste Group 14.1 5 2
Credit Suisse 1.0 3 0
Vladimira
Urbankova
Teresa
Schinwald
Robert Réthy
Günter
Hohberger
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009
11

12
hunGary
Gernot Jany
Jakub Zidon
Zoltán Réczey
Attila Gyurcsik
hUNgaRy
l erste group won thanks to an impressive
coverage record on hungarian stocks. of
the eight companies eligible for scoring, erste
produced either the most accurate or secondmost
accurate forecasts on each. this included a
remarkable six company wins.
l Winning forecasts were distributed across the
research team at erste, with no individual analyst
making more than one of the broker’s top scores.
erste Group’s biggest outperformance came
from gernot Jany’s research on National savings
and commercial bank. here, Jany carried over
a large score on the 2006 financial year and
followed up with accurate work again for 2007.
tOp aQ brOkers: 8 eligible
AQ No of No of
Rank/Broker Outperformance Forecasts Top AQs
Erste Group 13.7 8 6
Credit Suisse 10.5 4 0
Concorde Securities Ltd 9.0 7 1
Raiffeisen 6.1 5 1
Buda Cash 2.6 7 1
cOnsensus beaters - hungary
l local specialist concorde securities managed to
consistently outperform and add value through
recommendation accuracy. Duo attila Vágó and
attila gyurcsik managed to outperform on an
impressive six of seven companies aQ research
scored concorde on, with Gyurcsik making the
best forecast on Raba Jarmuipari.
l some of Ákos herceznik’s best research came
on richter gedeon Vegyeszeti gya and national
savings and commercial bank.
l on Mol, hungary’s most heavily-researched
company, erste group’s Jakub Zidon won thanks
to a 2006 estimate far more reliable than the
consensus and 2007 forecasts also ahead of
consensus and closer to the final result. Nine
different analysts covered this stock, including
local, regional and global players. second placed
credit suisse were consistently 20% ahead of
consensus opinion with their 2007 estimate and
were proved justified by the outcome.
l thomas Unger won on Magyar telekom thanks
to a final estimate that was within a whisker
of the outcome. this followed consistent
downgrades of his 2007 estimate.
Analysts who have, on average, beaten the average score on the stocks they cover by the largest margin.
Score Analyst Broker Estimates Top
8.0 Attila Gyurcsik Concorde Securities Ltd 5 3
5.2 Ákos Herczenik Raiffeisen 4 0
4.8 Peter Fazakas Buda Cash 3 1
1.1 Attila Vágó Concorde Securities Ltd 7 1
0.5 Zoltán Réczey Buda Cash 3 1
average analyst’s
cOmpany aQ scOre analyst tOp firm aQ scOre
Danubius Hotels Rt. 1.5 Gergely Gabler Erste Group 3.0
Egis Gyogyszergyar 29.4 Peter Fazakas Buda Cash 35.8
FHB Land Credit And Mortgage 22.4 Gernot Jany Erste Group 46.4
Linamar Hungary Autoipari Es 9.1 Janos Kocsi ING Financial Markets 9.1
Magyar Telekom 31.8 Thomas Unger Erste Group 47.1
MOL Hungarian Oil & Gas Co 28.9 Jakub Zidon Erste Group 48.0
National Savings And Comm 50.2 Ákos Herczenik Raiffeisen 83.9
Pannonplast Muanyagipary Rt 12.4 Jozsef Miro Erste Group 12.4
Raba Jarmuipari Holding Rt. 3.4 Attila Gyurcsik Concorde Securities Ltd 6.7
Richter Gedeon Vegyeszeti Gya 32.3 Vladimira Urbankova Erste Group 53.5
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009 AQ Research

PolaNd
l local-specialist bRe bank securities edges out
erste group to take first place in Poland. Of
the 22 stocks under their coverage, bre bank
securities’ forecasts were less accurate than
average on only four companies, proving more
reliable than others brokers on the rest.
l top analyst günter hohberger delivered some
of erste Group’s best polish research. hohberger
scored well on Bank PKO, Bank Polski, Bank
Zachodni and bank bPh.
l Much of bre bank securities’ success was due to
the forecasts produced by Marta Jezewska and
kamil kliszcz. Jezewska produced the broker’s
two best forecasts, winning on ING Bank Śląski
and beating the competition on bank zachodni.
kamil kliszcz excelled with recommendations
tOp aQ brOkers: 6 eligible
AQ No of No of
Rank/Broker Outperformance Forecasts Top AQs
BRE Bank Securities 8.6 22 12
Erste Group 7.0 23 17
Dom Maklerski BZ WBK -1.4 20 5
ING Financial Markets -1.5 21 5
cOnsensus beaters - pOland
AQ Research
sentiment index - pOland
on eurocash and Polish oil & gas, where his
forecast for 2007 was exactly correct for much
of the time it was in issue.
l Piotr Palenik and bartosz orzechowski each
produced a pair of INg Financial Markets’
winning scores. orzechowski’s biggest win
came on lPP, where the consensus amongst
other analysts was far more optimistic than the
reality warranted. on getin, palenik was one of
the first analysts to upgrade significantly in the
third quarter, resulting in the top aQ (forecast
Analysts who have, on average, beaten the average score on the stocks they cover by the largest margin.
Score Analyst Broker Estimates Top
22.8 Günter Hohberger Erste Group 4 4
9.4 Hugo Swann Credit Suisse 3 0
8.9 Kamil Kliszcz BRE Bank Securities 7 3
8.9 Marta Jezewska BRE Bank Securities 8 4
7.5 Daniel Lion Erste Group 3 1
7.4 Michal Marczak BRE Bank Securities 7 4
6.0 Bartosz Orzechowski ING Financial Markets 7 5
5.3 Tomasz Czyz ING Financial Markets 4 2
5.0 Piotr Palenik ING Financial Markets 12 4
4.6 Piotr Lopaciuk Erste Group 6 5
3.3 Pawel Puchalski Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 6 2
3.0 P Sawala-Uryasz UniCredit Global Research 5 3
2.9 Jakub Zidon Erste Group 3 0
2.1 Flawiusz Pawluk Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 4 0
2.0 Artur Iwanski Erste Group 8 6
1.9 Grzegorz Litynski KBC Securities 5 0
1.8 Magdalena Jagodzinska Erste Group 3 2
0.7 Marek Juras Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 6 0
0.5 Peter Tordai KBC Securities 3 1
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.1
-0.1
-0.3
-0.5
Dec-07
Jun-08
All analysts
Positive RQ analysts
Scale range -2 (strong sell) to +2 (strong buy)
Dec-08
polanD
Artur Iwanski
Marta
Jezewska
Michal
Marczak
P Sawala-
Uryasz
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009
13

14
polanD
Piotr Lopaciuk
Tomasz Czyz
Bartosz
Orzechowski
Kamil Kliszcz
average analyst’s
cOmpany aQ scOre analyst tOp firm aQ scOre
Agora 21.0 Dominik Niszcz Raiffeisen 32.1
Apator S.A. 11.8 Piotr Lopaciuk Erste Group 11.8
Asseco Poland SA 19.9 Daniel Lion Erste Group 37.6
Astarta Holding 12.8 Piotr Palenik ING Financial Markets 12.8
Bank BPH 11.9 Marek Juras Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 14.6
Bank Handlowy W Warszawie 31.3 Marta Jezewska BRE Bank Securities 46.1
Bank Millennium 30.8 Marta Jezewska BRE Bank Securities 45.6
Bank Polska Kasa Opieki 48.5 Günter Hohberger Erste Group 74.5
Bank Zachodni Wbk 42.2 Jovan Sikimic Raiffeisen 64.6
Bioton S.A. 0.8 Vladimira Urbankova Erste Group 0.8
BRE Bank 30.5 Günter Hohberger Erste Group 56.6
Budimex 9.7 Tomasz Czyz ING Financial Markets 12.5
CCC S.A. 11.9 Magdalena Jagodzinska Erste Group 18.9
Central European Distribution Corp 24.6 Artur Iwanski Erste Group 32.9
Ceramika Nowa Gala S.A. 23.6 Artur Iwanski Erste Group 33.9
Cersanit-Krasnystaw Sa 17.9 Pawel Puchalski Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 31.6
Comarch 17.4 Pawel Puchalski Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 40.1
Eldorado S.A. 30.6 Kamil Kliszcz BRE Bank Securities 30.6
Elektrobudowa Sa 24.5 Maciej Stoklosa BRE Bank Securities 24.5
Elstar Oil Sa 3.0 Grzegorz Litynski KBC Securities (Polish) 3.0
Eurocash S.A. 34.6 Kamil Kliszcz BRE Bank Securities 51.8
Fabryki Mebli Forte S.A. 1.5 Andrzej Szymanski Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 1.5
Frantschach Swiecie 40.3 Michal Marczak BRE Bank Securities 40.3
Getin Holding S.A. 21.1 Piotr Palenik ING Financial Markets 25.8
Globe Trade Centre 3.7 Robert Keller KBC Securities (Polish) 4.2
Graal S.A. 26.4 Artur Iwanski Erste Group 26.4
Grupa Lotos S.A. 19.8 Jakub Zidon Erste Group 35.8
Ing Bank Slaski S.A. - Capital Grp 42.6 Marta Jezewska BRE Bank Securities 67.0
Inter Cars 14.5 Bartosz Orzechowski ING Financial Markets 14.5
Jutrzenka Sa 17.3 Artur Iwanski Erste Group 17.3
KGHM Polska Miedz 25.8 Michal Marczak BRE Bank Securities 48.6
Kredyt Bank Sa 27.3 Marta Jezewska BRE Bank Securities 47.8
LPP 12.9 Bartosz Orzechowski ING Financial Markets 23.5
Netia Holding 2.7 Anna Bossong UniCredit Global Research 9.9
Orbis 6.4 Grzegorz Litynski KBC Securities (Polish) 9.2
PBG S.A. 32.6 Piotr Lopaciuk Erste Group 51.4
Pfleiderer Grajewo S.A. 19.1 Andrzej Szymanski Dom Maklerski BZ WBK 31.2
Polimex - Mostostal Siedlce S.a. 29.1 Maciej Stoklosa BRE Bank Securities 49.1
Polish Oil & Gas 24.6 Kamil Kliszcz BRE Bank Securities 54.1
Polska Grupa Farmaceutyczna 8.5 P Sawala-Uryasz UniCredit Global Research 8.5
Polski Konsern Naftowy Orlen 29.5 Leveau/Pumir/Laurent/Bouali Natixis Securities 49.2
Powszechna Kasa Oszczednosci 50.5 Jovan Sikimic Raiffeisen 65.5
Sygnity 2.9 Daniel Lion Erste Group 6.1
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009 AQ Research

accuracy) on the stock.
l hugo swann of credit suisse takes second place
in the country thanks to his research on poland’s
banks. suprisingly, swann did not manage any top
scores on the stocks under his coverage but did
beat the average analyst on each stock under his
examination.
l bre bank securities’ Michał Marczak also scored
highly, making very good scores on four different
companies in the analysis. Marczak’s best work
came on Agora, WSIP, KGHM Polska Miedz
AQ Research
and Frantschach swiecie. on agora, one of the
most heavily researched stocks in this analysis,
Marczak has had two consecutively accurate
years forecasting the company’s earnings and this
consistency earned him a big score.
l orlen as always was one of the most heavily
researched companies on the polish market.
the Natixis securites team delivered the most
reliable forecasts, thanks chiefly to sticking with a
forecast well ahead of consensus but very close
to the final result for 2007.
average analyst’s
cOmpany aQ scOre analyst tOp firm aQ scOre
Synthos 9.6 Tomasz Kasowicz Erste Group 13.1
Telekomunikacja Polska 21.7 Thomas Unger Erste Group 39.9
TVN Sp. Z O.o. 7.3 Dominik Niszcz Raiffeisen 11.1
W.Kruk S.A. 33.0 Piotr Lopaciuk Erste Group 33.0
WSIP SA 9.6 Piotr Grzybowski BRE Bank Securities 9.6
Zaklady Metali Lekkich Kety S 35.9 Dominik Niszcz Raiffeisen 52.7
Zaklady Miesne Duda Sp. Z O.o. 20.4 Artur Iwanski Erste Group 20.4
polanD
Tomasz
Kasowicz
Dominik Niszcz
Efficient procurement of equities research services
www.europa-investors.com
austria & central europe research yearbook 2009
xx
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15

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