عرض عام - World Bank's annual World Development Report

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عرض عام - World Bank's annual World Development Report

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2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗﻭ ﹼ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﻖﺒﺴﻣ ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻬﻧ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺔﻌﺿﺎﺧ ﺖﻟﺍﺯﺎﻣ ،ﺔﻘﺒﺴﻣ ﺔﻌﺒﻃ

(ﻝﻭﻷﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺸﺗ/ﺮﺑﻮﺘﻛﺃ ﺮﺧﺍﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺪﺼﻳ ﻲﺋﺎﻬﻨﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ)

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ

ﺔﻤﺻﺎﻌﻟﺍ ،ﻦﻄﻨﺷﺍﻭ


ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ/ﺮﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺀﺎﺸﻧﻺﻟ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ 2009©

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ﺔﻇﻮﻔﺤﻣ ﻕﻮﻘﳊﺍ ﻊﻴﻤﺟ

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ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻦﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ .2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻥﺍﻮﻨﻌﺑ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻴﺛﻮﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺰﺟﻮﺗ

ﺕﺍﺮﻴﺴﻔﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﺗ ﻻ .ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ/ﺮﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺀﺎﺸﻧﻺﻟ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻔﻇﻮﻣ

ﻚﻨﺒﻠﻟ ﲔﻳﺬﻴﻔﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﻳﺪﳌﺍ ﺲﻠﺠﻣ ﺮﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻬﺟﻭ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺎﺑ ﺪﱠﻠ ﹸﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺩﺭﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﺘﻨﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ

.ﺎﻬﻧﻮﻠﺜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﻮﻟﻷﺍﻭ ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﺗ ﻻﻭ .ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺎﻬﻨ ﹼ ﻤﻀﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔ ﹼﻗﺩ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻤﻀﻳ ﻻ

ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﻦﻣ ﹴﻢﻜ ﹸ ﺣ ﻱﺃ ﺏﺎﺘﻜﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻄﻳﺮﺧ ﺔﻳﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻨ ﹼ ﻴﺒﹸﳌﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴ ﹼ ﻤﺴﹸﳌﺍﻭ

.ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻩﺬﻬﻟ ﻝﻮﺒﻗ ﻭﺃ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺗ ﻭﺃ ﻢﻴﻠﻗﺇ ﻱﻷ ﻲﻧﻮﻧﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﻥﻭﺫﻷﺍﻭ ﻕﻮﻘﳊﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺀﺍﺰﺟﺃ ﺮﺸﻧ ﻭﺃ/ﻭ ﻊﺒﻃ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗ ﺪﻗﻭ .ﺮﺸﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﻊﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﻕﻮﻘﳊ ﺔﻋﻮﺒﻄﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺤﻣ ﻊﻀﺨﺗ

/ﺮﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺀﺎﺸﻧﻺﻟ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺎﻓ .ﺓﺬﻓﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﲔﻧﺍﻮﻘﻠﻟ ﺔﻔﻟﺎﺨﻣ ﻥﺫﺇ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺎﻬ ﹼﻠﻛ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻋﻮﺒﻄﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ

.ﻪﺗﺎﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺍﺰﺟﺃ ﻊﺒﻃ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﻹ ﺭﻮﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﺫﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﺢﻨﳝﻭ ﻪﺗﺎﻔﻟﺆﻣ ﺮﺸﻧ ﻊﺠﺸﻳ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ

ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻊﻣ ﺐﻠﻃ ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺇ ﻰﺟﺮﻳ ،ﺔﻋﻮﺒﻄﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺰﺟ ﻱﺃ ﻊﺒﻃ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﻭﺃ ﺦﺴﻨﺑ ﻥﺫﻹﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻟ

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ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺤﻣ ﺱﺮﻬﻓ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﺌﻃﻮﺗ

ﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗﻭ ﺮﻜﺷ

ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﺮﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺕﺎﺤﻠﻄﺼﳌﺍ ﺩﺮﺴﻣ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﲔﺑ ﻂﺑﺍﻭﺮﻟﺍ ﻢﻬﻓ 1

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ :ﺃ ﺰﻴﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ

ﻝﻭﻷﺍ ﺀﺰﳉﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﻣ :ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺽ ﹼ ﺮﻌﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ 2

ﻢﻬﺴﻔﻧﺃ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧﻭ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ :ﺏ ﺰﻴﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ

ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺘﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣﻭ ،ﺺﺨﺷ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ ﺔﻌﺴﺗ ﻡﺎﻌﻃﻹ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ 3

ﺔﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻹﺍ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺔﻳﻮﻘﺗ 4

ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺀﺰﳉﺍ

ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺝﺎﻣﺩﺇ 5

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗﻭ ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ :ﺝ ﺰﻴﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﺤﻣ


ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷ ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ 6

ﻊﻣ ﻒﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﺸﻧﻭ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﻰﻄﺧ ﻞﻴﺠﻌﺗ 7

ﺔﻴﻛﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺍﻮﳉﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻯﻮﻗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﹼﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ 8

ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ

(ﻊﺑﺎﺗ) ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﶈﺍ ﺱﺮﻬﻓ iv

ﺔﻴﻓﺍﺮﻏﻮﻴﻠﺒﻴﺑ ﺓﺮﻛﺬﻣ

ﺕﺎﺤﻠﻄﺼﳌﺍ ﺩﺮﺴﻣ

ﺓﺭﺎﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺷﺆﻣ

ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺤﻤﻠﻟ ﻉﻮﺟﺮﻟﺍ ﺱﺮﻬﻓ


v

ﺔﺌﻃﻮﺗ

ﺪﻠﺑ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ .ﻪﺘﻳﺍﺪﺑ ﺬﻨﻣ ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺑﺍﺮﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻠﻟ ﻱ ﹼ ﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻩﺩﺮﻔﲟ ﺪﻠﺑ ﻱﻷ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻﻭ .ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺪﺿ ﺔﻧﺎﺼﳊﺎﺑ ﻊﺘﻤﺘﻣ

ﺐﻗﺍﻮﻋﻭ ،ﻎﻟﺎﺑ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ ،ﻝﺪﺠﻠﻟ ﺓﺮﻴﺜﻣ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ : ﹰﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﺜﻳ

.ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻋ

ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻭ ﺙﻭﺪﺣ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﻳﻭ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﻝﻮﻄﻫ ﻁﺎﳕﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻝ ﹼ ﻮﲢ ﺮﻬﻈﻳ ،ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻊﻣ

ﺪﻘﻔﻴﺳ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻖﺋﺍﺮﺣ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﺮﺗﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺤﻧﺍ :ﻞﺜﻣ ،ﺓ ﹼ ﺪﳊﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ

ﻢﻬﻨﻛﺎﺴﻣ ﺔﻳﺮﻳﺰﳉﺍ ﻝﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻈﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺸﻴﻌﻳ ﻦﳑ ﲔﻳﻼﳌﺍ

:ﻕﺎﻓﺁ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻤﻫﺮﻴﻏﻭ ﺎﻴﺳﺁﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻪﺟﺍﻮﻳﻭ .ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻊﻣ

ﻉﻮﳉﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍﻭ ،ﻲﺳﺂﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﺎﻣﻭ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﺎﻔﺧﺇ

.ﺽﺮﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺴﻳﺮﻓ ﻉﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﻮﺳﻭ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﺘﻟﺎﺳﺭ ﻞﺜﻤﺘﺗ ﻑﺍﺮﻃﻷﺍ ﺓﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﺔﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻲﻫ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻥﺃ ﺎﲟﻭ

ﺕﺎﻜﺑﺎﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺾﻌﺑ ﺢﻴﺿﻮﺘﻟ ﻲﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﻣ ﺎﻬﻘﺗﺎﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻊﻘﺗ ،ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﺘﺷﻻﺍ

ﻡﻮﻠﻋﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻡﻮﻠﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ — ﺕﺎﺼﺼﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺩﺎﻴﻣ ﲔﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺕﺎﻄﺑﺍﺮﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻪﺟﺍﻮﺗﻭ .ﺔﻤﻛﻮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓﻭ ،ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ

ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻣﻮﻳ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ — ﺔﻟﻭﺩ 186 ﺎﻫﺩﺪﻋ ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻀﻋﻷﺍ ﻝﻭﺪﻟﺍﻭ — ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻲﻧﺪﳌﺍ ﻊﻤﺘﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﻈﻨﻣﻭ ،ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻦﻳﺎﺒﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻝﻭﺩ :ﲔﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺎﻗﺇ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺛﺎﳌﺍ

ﺔﻠﺴﻠﺳ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺛﻼﺜﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﻮﻫﻭ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻰﻌﺴﻳﻭ .ﻙﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻊﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﻠﺳ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ

ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻧﺮﺘﻘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻖﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ

.ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﹰﺎﻣ ﹸ ﺪ ﹸﻗ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻊﻓﺩ

ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ ﺎﻬﻟﺬﺑ ﺀﺎﻨﺛﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻰﺘﺣ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﺀﺐﻋ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻖﺗﺎﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻊﻘﻴﺳ

ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ،ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑﻭ .ﻡﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻊﻓﺩﻭ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻠﻟ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﺳﺎﻜﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺀﺎﻀﻘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍﻭ ﻒﻌﻀﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻖﻴﻤﻌﺗ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﺑ ﺭﺬﻨﻳ ﹰﺍﺮﻄﺧ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ

ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﺔﺑﻮﻌﺻ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻕﺎﻓﻵ ﻱ ﹼ ﺪﳉﺍ ﺾﻳﻮﻘﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻞﻳﻮﻃ ﺀﺎﻨﻋ ﺪﻌﺑ ﺖﻘﻘﲢ

ﻲﻓﻭ .2015 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻡﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﻥﻮﻣﺄﳌﺍ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﺿﻭ — ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺔﻴﻔﻟﻸﻟ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳕﻹﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺎﺑ

ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﳊﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﻮﻋﺩ ﺔﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺸﺨﻳ ،ﻪﺴﻔﻧ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ

ﹰﺍﺀﺪﺑ — ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻖﻨﺨﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺲﺳﺃﻭ ﺪﻋﺍﻮﻗ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ

. ﹼ ﺮﳊﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺎﺑ ﺀﺎﻬﺘﻧﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺎﺑ

.ﲔﻳﺩﺎﻋ ﺮﻴﻏ ﹰﺎﻧﻭﺎﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺎﻋﺍﺪﺑﺇ ﺩﺎﻌﺑﻷﺍ ﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣﻭ ﻞﺋﺎﻫ ﺪﲢ ﻮﻫﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ

ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﻳ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻥﺈﻓ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻊﻣﻭ ،ﺎﻧﺮﺼﻋ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻜﳑ "ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻰﻨﻌ ﹸ ﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ" ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺎﻓ

.ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ ﹰﺎﻌﻣﻭ ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ — ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻝﻮﻘﻳ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ —

ﺭ ﹼ ﺮﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﳋﺍﻭ ﺪﻐﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺪﺤﻳ ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﻧ ﺎﻣ ﻥﻷ ،ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺰﺠﺘﲢ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺭﺪﺼﹸﻧ ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻦﺤﻨﻓ .ﺎﻨﻠﺒﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ

ﺩﻭﺪﺳﻭ ،ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻛ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻄﺤﻣ :ﺀﺎﻨﺒﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﻧﻭ .ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻭﺮﻗ ﻰﺘﺣﻭ ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﺓﺪﳌ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ

ﻭﺃ ﺔﻨﺳ ﲔﺴﻤﺧ ﻡﻭﺪﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺪﻣﻭ ،ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﻣﻭ ﻞﻘﻧ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷﻭ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃﻭ ،ﻦﻛﺎﺴﻣﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻨﻳﺰﺨﺗ

ﺩﺪﲢ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺎﻬﺒﻳﺮﺠﺘﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﻧ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃﻭ ﺓﺮﻜﺘﺒﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﺮﺜﻛﺃ

ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺺﺨﺷ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 3 ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺎﺑ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻠﻟ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻞﻜﺷ

.2050 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻣ ﻞﺣ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻﻭ .ﺕﺎﻋﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﺏﺮﻀﺗ ﺔﻣﺯﺃ ﻮﻫ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻷ ،ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﲔﺴﲢ :ﻲﻓ ﻲﳌﺎﻋ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺗ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ


ﻦﻣ ﺔﻓﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ” ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ” ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺎﻴﳊﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋﻭ .ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺜﻌﺒﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻠﻟ ﺎﻬﺻﺎﺼﺘﻣﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺙﻮﻠﺘﻟﺍ

ﺖﺠﺘﻧﺃ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺎﻓ .ﺔﻔﺼﻨﻣﻭ ﺓﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﻣ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﺑ ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋﻭ .ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ .ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺎﻬﻴﻓ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍﻭ ،ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ

ﺰﻔﺣﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﻳ ﺎﳌ ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ :ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﺴﳌﺍ ﺩﻮﻘﺗ ﻥﺃ

ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﻻ ﻞﺋﺍﺪﺑ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﻮﺜﻌﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻣﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﺝﺎﺘﺤﺘﺳﻭ .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﻦﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺘﺳ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻤﺘﺗ ﻲﻜﻟ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻘﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻭ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

ﺭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﳊﺇ ﻥﻭﺩ — ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻀﳌﺍ

ﹼ ﺪﺑ ﻻ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺟﺎﺤﺑ ﻲﻫﻭ .ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻗﺎﻓﺂﺑ

.ﺎﻬﻨﻣ

ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻂﻴﻄﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻨﻜﳝ ﻻ ﻪﻧﻷ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳﻭ

:ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺎﻗﺇ ﺎ ﹼﻨﻣ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺘﺳ ﺪﻐﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺎﻓ .ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻸﻟ ﺩﻭﺪﶈﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ،ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﳌﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻄﺘﲟ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ ﺔﻣﻭﺎﻘﻣ

ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﺘﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺪﻣﻹﺍ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ

ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺔﻠﻜﻴﻫ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍ ﻊﻣ

:ﻁﺎﳕﺃ ﺕﺍﺮ ﱡ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﺗ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺗ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻉﺍﻮﻧﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﻝﻮﻄﻫﻭ ،ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﻲﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﺣ ﻒﻴﺜﻜﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣﻭ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

.ﺔﺌﻳﺮﳉﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺭﺎﻜﻓﻷﺍ ﻉﻼﻄﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺓﺪﻋﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ

ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻞ ﹼ ﺻﻮﺗ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻐﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻢﺧﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺝﺎﺘﺤﻧﻭ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺞﻣﺪﻳ ﺎﲟ ﻝﻭﻷﺍ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻛ/ﺮﺒﻤﺴﻳﺩ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻏﺎﻬﻨﺑﻮﻛ

ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﻣ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺓﺪﻋ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺕﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ

ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﺑﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻲﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺮﻳ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﻟ

ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺔﻠﻴﺳﻮﻛ ﺎﻫﻮﳕ ﺮﻤﺘﺴﻳ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑﻭ ﻖﻳﺩﺎﻨﺻ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺒﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺍ ﻪﺗﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ

ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺍ ﻰﻌﺴﺗﻭ .ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﱟﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ

ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻒﻴﻛ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟ

ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﻱﺩﺎﻔﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﻹ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﻵﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺎﻣ ﺡﻭﺍﺮﺘﻳ ﺎﲟ — ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ

ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻊﻤﲡ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺒﳌﺍﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺗ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍﻭ

،ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻬﺑﻭ .ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ

ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇﻭ ﺕﺍﻮﻄﺧ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

.ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻄﺒﺜﳌﺍﻭ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻁﺎﺒﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ،ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺸﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﺿﻭ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺈﺑ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻤﻠﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻠﻟ ﻥﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗﻭ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑ ﻢﻴﻋﺪﺗ ﻲﻓ

.ﹰﺎﻣﺎﲤ ﺎﻬﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺎﻳﺎﻀﻗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺀﺪﺑ ﻰﻟﺇ 2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻮﻋﺪﻳ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺪﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﳊﺍ ﺹﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺢﻨﺴﺘﺳ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ ﹰﺎﻌﻣﻭ ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻯﺮﺟ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ

.ﺔﳌﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻤﺘﺷﺍ ﺪﻧﺎﺴﻳ ﺎﲟ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻚﻴﻟﻭﺯ .ﺏ ﺕﺮﺑﻭﺭ

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺲﻴﺋﺭ

ﺔﺌﻃﻮﺗ vi


vii

ﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗﻭ ﺮﻜﺷ

:ﻦﻣ ﹰﻼﻛ ﻢﻀﻳ ﻮﻫﻭ Marianne Fay ﻭ Rosina Bierbaum ﺔﺳﺎﺋﺮﺑ ﻲﺳﺎﺳﺃ ﻖﻳﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺈﺑ ﻡﺎﻗ

Andrea ﻭ Andreas Kopp ﻭ Kirk Hamilton ﻭ Ricardo Fuentes ﻭ Samuel Fankhauser ﻭ Julia Bucknall

Xiaodong ﻭ Mark Rosegrant ﻭ Jean-Louis Racine ﻭ Ian Noble ﻭ Alexander Lotsch ﻭ Liverani

Arun Agrawal :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺎﻤﻫﺎﺴﻣ ﻡ ﹼ ﺪﻗﻭ .Michael Ian Westphal ﻭ Xueman Wang ﻭ Wang

Kseniya ﻭ Jean-Charles Hourcade ﻭ Calestous Juma ﻭ Elliot Diringer ﻭ Philippe Ambrosi ﻭ

:ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻖﻳﺮﻔﻠﻟ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻡﺪﻗﻭ .Michael Toman ﻭ Alan Miller ﻭ Muthukumara Mani ﻭ Lvovsky

ﻭ Hilary Gopnik ﻭ Nate Engle ﻭ Sandy Chang ﻭ Nicola Cenacchi ﻭ Doina Cebotari ﻭ Rachel Block

.Jon Strand ﻭ Lidvard Gronnevet :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﺕﺎﻤﻫﺎﺴﻣ ﻡ ﹼ ﺪﻗ ﺎﻤﻛ .Hrishikesh Patel

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻂﺋﺍﺮﳋﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺓﺪﺣﻭ ﺖﻣﺎﻗﻭ .ﺮﻳﺮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺳﺎﺋﺭ ﺔﻤﻬﻣ Bruce Ross-Larson ﻰﻟﻮﺗﻭ

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﺷﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺐﺘﻜﻣ ﺡﺎﺗﺃﻭ .Jeff Lecksell ﻦﻣ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗﻭ ﻑﺍﺮﺷﺈﺑ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻂﺋﺍﺮﺧ ﻊﺿﻮﺑ

ﻭ Stephen McGroarty ﻭ Mary Fisk :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻑﺍﺮﺷﺈﺑ ﺔﻋﺎﺒﻄﻟﺍﻭ ﺐﻴﺗﺮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﺮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ

.Andrés Meneses

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ 2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺔﻳﺎﻋﺭ ﻲﻓ ﺖﻛﺮﺘﺷﺍ

Justin Yifu ﻦﻣ ﻡﺎﻋ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺘﺑ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻯﺮﺟﻭ .(SDN) ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻜﺒﺷﻭ (DEC)

ﻡﺎﻗ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻜﺒﺷ ﻦﻣ Katherine Sierra ﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ Lin

ﺔﻀﻴﻔﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﻮﺸﳌﺍ ﱘﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﻡﺎﻗﻭ .Alan H. Gelb ﻭ Warren Evans :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﺕﺎﻬﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﱘﺪﻘﺘﺑ

ﻭ Zhou Dadi ﻭ Neil Adger :ﻦﻣ ﹰﻼﻛ ﻢﺿ ﻦﻳﺭﺎﺸﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻓ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺯﺎﺘﻤﳌﺍﻭ

Jean-Charles ﻭ (2008 ﻝﻭﻷﺍ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻛ/ﺮﺒﻤﺴﻳﺩ ﻰﺘﺣ) John Holdren ﻭ Geoffrey Heal ﻭ Rashid Hassan

John ﻭ Carlos Nobre ﻭ Nebojša Nakićenović ﻭ Calestous Juma ﻭ Saleemul Huq ﻭ Hourcade

.John Weyant ﻭ Robert Watson ﻭ Schellnhuber

.Robert B. Zoellick ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺲﻴﺋﺭ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻢﻬﺳﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺖﻤﻬﺳﺃﻭ .ﺕﺎﺣﺍﺮﺘﻗﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻘﻴﻠﻌﺘﺑ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺝﺭﺎﺧﻭ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻭﺮﺧﺁ ﻥﻭﺪﻳﺪﻋ ﻢﻬﺳﺃ

ﺕﺍﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﱘﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﺖﻣﺎﻗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻫﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺎﺑ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻖﺤﻠﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﱘﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ

.ﺓﺭﺎﺘﺍ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﻞﻤﻋ ﺕﺎﻘﻠﺣﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﰎ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺕﺍﺭﻭﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﻖﻳﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻢ ﹼﻠﻌﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻜﺒﺸﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ) ﻮﻳﺪﻴﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﻋ ﺔﻟﻮﻘﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﲤﺆﳌﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻭﺃ ﹰﺎﻴﻠﺤﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻠﻗﺇ

ﺎﻨﻴﻛﺭﻮﺑﻭ ،ﺎﻧﺍﻮﺴﺗﻮﺑﻭ ،ﲍﺑﻭ ،ﺎﻜﻴﺠﻠﺑﻭ ،ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑﻭ ،ﲔﺘﻨﺟﺭﻷﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ (ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ

،ﺍﺪﻨﻠﻨﻓﻭ ،ﺎﻴﺑﻮﻴﺛﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻜﻴﻨﻴﻣﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻬﻤﳉﺍﻭ ،ﻙﺮﳕﺍﺪﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺭﺍﻮﻔﻳﺩ ﺕﻮﻛﻭ ،ﺎﻜﻳﺭﺎﺘﺳﻮﻛﻭ ،ﲔﺼﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻮﺻﺎﻓ

،ﺍﻮﻏﺍﺭﺎﻜﻴﻧﻭ،ﺍﺪﻨﻟﻮﻫﻭ،ﻖﻴﺒﻣﺍﺯﻮﻣﻭ ،ﻚﻴﺴﻜﳌﺍﻭ،ﺖﻳﻮﻜﻟﺍﻭ،ﺎﻴﻨﻴﻛﻭ،ﺎﻴﺴﻴﻧﻭﺪﻧﺇﻭ،ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍﻭ،ﺎﻧﺎﻏﻭ،ﺎﻴﻧﺎﳌﺃﻭ،ﺎﺴﻧﺮﻓﻭ

،ﺲﻧﻮﺗﻭ ،ﻮﻏﻮﺗﻭ ،ﺪﻨﻠﻳﺎﺗﻭ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺍﺰﻨﺗﻭ ،ﺪﻳﻮﺴﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﺏﻮﻨﺟﻭ ،ﻝﺎﻐﻨﺴﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺍﺪﻨﻟﻮﺑﻭ ،ﲔﺒﻠﻔﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻭﺮﻴﺑﻭ ،ﺞﻳﻭﺮﻨﻟﺍﻭ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻠﺣ ﻲﻓ ﻙﺭﺎﺷ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺮﻜﺷ ﻖﻳﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻳﻭ .ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻜﻠﻤﳌﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﻹﺍﻭ ،ﺍﺪﻨﻏﻭﺃﻭ

ﲔﻟﻭﺆﺴﻣﻭ ،ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﲔﺜﺣﺎﺑﻭ ،ﲔﻴﳝﺩﺎﻛﺃ :ﻥﻮﻤﻀﻳ ﻢﻫﻭ ،ﻮﻳﺪﻴﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﻋ ﺔﻟﻮﻘﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﲤﺆﳌﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﻚﻠﺗ

.ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻧﺪﳌﺍ ﻊﻤﺘﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﻈﻨﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﺣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﻤﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﻔﻇﻮﻣﻭ ،ﲔﻴﻣﻮﻜﺣ

،ﺞﻳﻭﺮﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﻮﻜﺣ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻫﺎﻘﻠﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺨﺴﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻤﻠﻟ ﻩﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺏﺍﺮﻋﻹﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻳ ،ﹰﺎﻣﺎﺘﺧ

ﺔﻴﻧﺎﳌﻷﺍ ﺔﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻴﻧﺎﳌﺃ ﺔﻣﻮﻜﺣﻭ ،ﻙﺮﳕﺍﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﻮﻜﺣﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻄﻳﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺯﻭﻭ

ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ/ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﻮﻜﺣﻭ ،(GDTZ) ﻲﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻠﻟ

،(TFESSD) ﹰﺎﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍﻭ ﹰﺎﻴﺌﻴﺑ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻠﻟ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺌﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺼﻟﺍﻭ ،(SwedBio) ﻱﺪﻳﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ

.(KCP) ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑﻭ ،ﺔﺤﻧﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻬﳉﺍ ﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺒﻠﻟ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺌﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺼﻟﺍﻭ

Jason Victor ﻭ Sonia Joseph ﺖﻟﻮﺗﻭ ،ﻖﻳﺮﻔﻠﻟ ﻰﻟﻭﻷﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻤﻬﲟ Rebecca Sugui ﺖﻣﺎﻗ

ﺔﻤﻬﻣ Evangeline Santo Domingo ﺖﻟﻮﺗ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ ،ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺸﻟ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻤﻬﻣ Bertha Medina ﻭ

.ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻥﻭﺆﺸﻟ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ


:ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﺮﻟﺍ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ

ﺕﺎﻳﻮﻟﻭﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻻﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢﻭ ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺗ

:ﺮﻘﺘﻔﻳﻭ .ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ 1.25 ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺶﻴﻌﻳ ﺔﻳﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﺑﺭ ﻝﺍﺯﺎﻣ .ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻑﺮﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻰﻟﺇﻭ ،ﺺﺨﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 1.6 ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇﻭ ،ﺺﺨﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺏﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ

.ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﻮﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻔﻃﺃ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻊﺑﺭ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﻳﻭ .ﺺﺨﺷ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 3 ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻲﺤﺼﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﻤﻠﻟﻭ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﻟﻭﺃ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻚﻠﺘﺑ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﻈﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺳ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ ﺔﺑﻮﻌﺻ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺘﺳ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻙﺍﺭﺩﺇ ﻊﻣ — ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳕﻹﺍ

ﺔﻓﺎﻜﻟ ﹰﺍﺪﻳﺪﻬﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﻞﺟﺎﻋ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻊﻣ ﺐﺠﻳ

ﺪﻴﻔﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺎﻓ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺎﻓ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 80-75 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻞ ﹼ ﻤﺤﺘﺘﺳ ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺑ

ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺓﺪﺋﺎﺳ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻋ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺪﺑ ﻮﻟﻭ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ — ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻩﺪﻬﺸﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻰﻧﺩﻷﺍ ﺪﳊﺍ ﻮﻫﻭ — ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﺮﻘﺘﻔﻳﻭ .ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﺏﻮﻨﺟﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﻷ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 5-4 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﻹ ﻢﺋﺍﺩ

.ﺓﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟ ﺥﺎﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻲﻫﻭ

.ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺸﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺘﻟ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺔﻌﺿﺎﺧ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﻮﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺪﻣ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻤﻈﻌﻣ ﻊﻘﻳﻭ .ﺔﻫﺎﻓﺮﻟﺍﻭ

ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻠﻟ ﻲﻔﻜﻳ ﺎﲟ ﹰﺎﻔﺼﻨﻣ ﻭﺃ ﹰﺎﻌﻳﺮﺳ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻩﺪﺣﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ

.ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺔﻋﺮﺳ ﺩﺍﺯﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻒﻴﺜﻛ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻞﻇ ﺍﺫﺇ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﲔﺑﻭ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺭﺎﻴﺨﻛ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ،ﺍﺬﻟ

ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺰﻳﺰﻌﺗ :ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﻰﻨﻌﹸﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﺳ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝ ﹼ ﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲤﻭ ،ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍﻭ ﻒﻌﻀﻟﺍ

ﺎﻤﻋ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ ﹰﺎﻌﻣﻭ ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻨﻤﻗ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻝﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺐﻳﺮﻗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻰﻨﻌﹸﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

:ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺎﻛ

ﻞﺒﺳ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻙﻮﻠﺳ ﻊﻣ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺩﺍﺩﺯﺍﻭ ﺔﻨﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﳋﺍ ﺖﻔﺘﺧﺍ ﻻﺇﻭ ،ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ •

ﻪﻔﻗﻭ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﺎﻣﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻣﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ ﺮﻄﺨﻠﻟ ﺽ ﹼ ﺮﻌﻳ ﻞﻌﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﺬﺧﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﻓ .ﻩﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﺲﻜﻋﻭ

ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺈﻓ .ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺔﻴﻔﻟﻸﻟ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳕﻹﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺎﺑ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﺸﻴﻌﳌﺍ

ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ — ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻕﻮﻓ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻗ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺓﺭﻮﺛ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ — ﻪﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻣ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻖﻘﲢ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺓﺮﻓﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻠﻟ ﻱﺭﻮﻔﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﳉﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻤﺨﺿ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻣ ﻥﺍﺮﺘﻗﻻﺎﺑ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺎﻬﻧﻭﺪﺑ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻪﻔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻓ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ

.ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﻤﻠﻟ ﺩﺍﺪﻌﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ

ﻝﺎﻌﻓ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺮﺼﻨﻌﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ •

ﺃﺪﺒﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳﻭ .ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟ

viii


ix 2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ :ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﺮﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺔﺌﻳﺮﺟ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺎﺑ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﺋﺎﻔﻟ " ﺚﻳﻮﻠﺘﻟﺍ ﺰ ﹼ ﻴﺣ "ﺾﻌﺑ ﺮﻳﺮﲢ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﻜﻟ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﺰﻔﺤﻴﺳ ﻪﻧﺃ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻫﻷﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺔﺟﺭﺪﺑ ﺮﻘﺘﺴﻣﻭ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻠﻟ ﻕﻮﺳ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﻴﺳ ﻪﻧﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻊﻳﺮﺳ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻫﺪﻴﻌﺼﺗ

ﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝ ﹼ ﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﻜﲤ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺎﻤﺳﺎﺣ ﻥﺍﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﻥﺍﺬﻬﻓ .ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻛ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻋﺮﺴﺑ ﺎﻬﻟﻮﺼﺣ ﻊﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗ ﻦﻤﻀﻳ

ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺎﻬﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﱘﺪﻘﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻮﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﺟﺃ

ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻓ — ﺓﻭﺎﺴﻗ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺔﺌﻴﺑ ﻲﻓ ﻡﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺓﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻊﻓﺩ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﺣ

ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌﺍﻭ .ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻗ ﻕﻮﻔﻴﺳ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ

ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﺮﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺎﻔﻌﺿ ﺪﺷﻷﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ :ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍﻭ

ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﻝﺩﺎﺒﺗ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺗﻭ ،ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﻘﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﺒﻴﺗﺮﺗ ﻊﺿﻭﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ

.ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﻢﻟﺎﻋ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺘﻟ ﻡﺯﻻ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ •

ﺾﻔﺨﻨﺗ ﻲﻜﻟ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﻞﻜﺷ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻴﻠﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 80-50 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

.ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻭ ﻡﻭﺎﻘﺗ ﺎﻬﻠﻌﺠﻳ ﺎﲟ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺎﻗﺇ ﺐﺠﻳ

ﺪﻳﺰﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺾﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺺﺨﺷ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 3 ﻡﺎﻌﻃﺇ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﻜﻟﻭ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻺﻟ ﻻﺇ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻﻭ .ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﺳﺍﻭﻭ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻃ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﳌﺍ ﻂﻴﻄﺨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﻜﺘﳌﺍ

ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ :ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﳌﺍ

ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺻ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇﻭ ،ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ

.ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺎﻬﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺔﻟﻮﻠﻴﳊﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺓﺪﺻﺭﺃ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇﻭ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺬﺧﺄﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻳﻮﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﻻﺎﻓ

ﺲﻴﻟﻭ — ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﺯﺰﻌﺗﻭ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺪﺑ ﻻ ﺔﻟﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺎﻓ ." ﻞﺜﻣﺃ " ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﺔﺒﻛﺍﻮﻣ ﺩ ﹼ ﺮﺠﻣ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺗ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺔﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺓﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺎﻌﻴﻤﺟ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﺭﻮﻣﺃ ﻩﺬﻫﻭ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

.(ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻃﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻣﻭ ﺔﻳﺮﺸﺑ)

: ﹼ ﺮﻘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳﻭ .ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻝﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﻒﺼﻨﳌﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﲔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺗﺪﻋﺎﺴﻣﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻮﻌﻣﻭ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ

ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﺼﺣ ﺓﺮﻴﺳﺃ ﺎﻬﺋﺎﻘﺑ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻥﺎﻤﺿﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻡﺎﻣﺃ ﺓﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻠﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻠﻟ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺙﻭﺪﺣ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ ﺀﺎﺸﻧﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻢﻈﻌﻤﻓ .ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻊﻓﺪﻳ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺑﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻧﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﺘﻤﺼﺑ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﻑﻮﺳ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻋﺮﺴﺑ ﻮﻤﻨﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﻬﺗﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍﻭ ،ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﺼﺑ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﱘﺪﻘﺗ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳﻭ .ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﳑ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 5 ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺎﻓ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺺﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﺳ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﹰﺎﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ

.ﺓﺮﻜﺘﺒﳌﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ

ﲔﻨﻃﺍﻮﻣ ﻢﻬﺘﻔﺼﺑ — ﺩﺍﺮﻓﻷﺍ .ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻱﺃﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢﻭ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻒﻗﻮﺘﻳ ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ

ﺹﺎﺨﺷﻷﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺗ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ .ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺩﺪﺤﻳ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻫ — ﲔﻜﻠﻬﺘﺴﻣﻭ

ﻢﻬﻨﻣ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﻟﺎﻓ ،ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﺑ ﻥﻮﻨﻣﺆﻳﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻣ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻮﻓﺮﻌﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ

.ﺔﺻﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻢﻬﻟ ﺢﻨﺴﺗ ﲔﺣ ﻞﻤﻋ ﻱﺄﺑ ﻥﻮﻣﻮﻘﻳ ﻻ ﻢﻬﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻢﻬﺗﺎﻳﻮﻟﻭﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﻮﻠﻌﺠﻳ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﳕﺃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﻦﻤﻜﻳ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ

— ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ — ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ

.ﲔﻨﻃﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﻸﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺫﺎﺟ ﻖﻴﻘﲢﻭ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ


2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ :ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﺮﻟﺍ x

ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﻊﻘﻳﻭ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﻬﻘﻠﺨﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻸﻟ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺃ ﺽﺮﻌﺘﺗ :1 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺎﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺮﻄﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ ،ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺹﺎﺨﺷﻷﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﹰﺍﺭﺍﺪﺻﺇ ﻞﻗﺃ ﺀﺍﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺢﺒﺼﻳ ﻢﻟ

ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺬﺨﺘﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺎﻓ :ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋﻭ .ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺩﺪﲢﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻛ ﻲﻓ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻲﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﻮﻣﻷﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻭ .ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻯﺪﻣﻭ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﻴﺟﺄﺘﻓ :ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻴﻠﻋﻭ .ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ 5 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻒﻋﺎﻀﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﺎﻨﻠﻤﻋ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﲤ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ ﻢﺘﺗ ﻢﻟ ﺎﻣ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻲﻫ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺒﺗﺮﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﹰﺎﻌﻣﻭ ﻥﻵﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷﺍ ﺀﻮﺿ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺮﻳﺮﺒﺗ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ

،ﹰﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍﻭ ﹰﺎﻳﺩﺎﻣ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻁﻮﻐﺿ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻴﺳ ﻮﻫﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻔﻣ ﻻ :2 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﻂﻴﻄﺨﺘﻟﺍ — ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺓﻮﻗ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳﻭ .ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻃ ﺔﻴﻨﻣﺯ ﺓﺪﳌ

ﺔﺒﻠﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻸﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍﻭ

ﺾﻌﺑ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗ ﺐﺟﻮﺘﻴﺳﻭ .ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﺮﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺎﻔﻌﺿ ﺪﺷﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺸﻟﺍﻭ

ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺮﺧﻵﺍ ﺾﻌﺒﻟﺍﻭ — ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍﻭ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺨﻛ — ﺔﺨﺳﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺈﻓ .ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﻂﻴﻄﺨﺘﻛ — ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻪﺑ

ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻘﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ﺭﻮﻬﻈﻟﺎﺑ ﺓﺪﻋﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺕﺬﺧﺃﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻮﻟﻭ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ

.ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍﻭ ،ﻉﺍﺪﺑﻹﺍﻭ ،ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍﻭ ،ﻝﺍﻮﻣﻷﺍ :ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻴﺳ

ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻔﻜﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺔﺑﻮﻌﺻ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﹼ ﻱﺩﺆﻴﺳ :3 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻋﻮﻧﻭ ﺮﻓﻮﺗ ﻯﺪﻣﻭ ﺖﻴﻗﻮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﻴﺳ ﹼ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻢﻫﺩﺪﻋ ﺬﺧﻵﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺎﺑ

،ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﺪﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻔﺘﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﺐﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ ﻝﺪﻌﻣ ﺔﻔﻋﺎﻀﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻌﺘﻴﺳ ﹼ

ﺎﻬﻟﺎﻤﻫﺇ ﰎ ﺔﻓﻭﺮﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ :ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ ﺲﻳﺮﻜﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻚﻟﺬﻟ

ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻊﻳﻮﻨﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺼﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﻭﺎﻘﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺪﻳﺪﲢﻭ ،ﺎﻬﻠﻫﺎﲡﻭ

ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ،ﻙﺎﻤﺳﻷﺍ ﺪﺋﺎﺼﻣﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻔﻳﺮﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻕﺯﺮﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﻛ

ﺓﺭﺎﲡ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻌﺘﻴﺳﻭ ﹼ .ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ

ﺭﻮﻬﻈﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﺤﻴﺤﺻ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻢﻬﹸﳌﺍ ﹼ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺒﻓ .ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺘﺳ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ

ﺔﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳﻹﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻼﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌ ﻲﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻢﻋﺪﻟﺍ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﺃ ﻊﻔﻨﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﺠﺷﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ

.ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻓ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺈﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻣ ﻞﺣ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ :4 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﻊﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﻝ ﹼ ﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟ ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﲔﺴﺤﺘﻟﺍ — ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷ ﻱﺭﺬﳉﺍ

ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻳﻭﻮﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺎﲟﺭﻭ ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻩﺎﲡﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗﻭ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﻷ

ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﺗﻭ ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺭ ﹼ ﺪﺼﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ :ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ

ﻝ ﹼ ﻮﲢ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍﻭ ،ﻕﺍﻮﺳﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻝﺍﺰﻧﺇﻭ ،2050 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 80

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﺤﻠﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﺋﺎﻗ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻨﻤﻴﻫ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﻘﺒﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻔﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻥﻵﺍ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺀﺎﻐﻟﺇ :ﻞﺜﻣ — ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻠﻟﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟ ﺓﺪﻴﺟ — ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻫﻮﺸﺗ

.ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﺪﺣ


xi 2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ :ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﺮﻟﺍ

ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻖﻴﺴﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﹼ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻤﻛ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﳌﺍ :5 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺤﻳ ،ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ .ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻒﻗﻮﺘﻳ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻻﺇ .ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻨﺛ" ﻦﻣ ﺕﻼﻓﻹﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺎﲟ ،ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻤﺘﻫﻻﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻜﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺩﺪﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ ."ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ

ﻕﺮﻃ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ - ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﻯﺮﺧﺃﻭ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻭﺃ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺃ ﻊﻣ —

.ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻯﺪﻣ ﺱﺎﻴﻗﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇﻭ ﺕﺍﻮﻄﺧ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻌﺘﻳﻭ ﹼ ؛ﹰﺎﻣﺪﹸ ﹸﻗ ﻲﻀﹸﳌﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﹼ ﻊﻣ ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﹼ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﲔﻤﻀﺗ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻌﺘﻳ ﹼ ﺎﻤﻛ

.ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻖﻴﻓﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻸﻟ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺢﻴﺘﻳ :6 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻲﻓ

ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻸﻟ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ — ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻦﻋ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﻞﻘﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ،ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 10 ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﻡ ﹼ ﺪﻘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 400 ﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻢﻠﻗﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒ ﹼ ﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 75 ﺔﻐﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ

ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ

،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻕﺍﻮﺳﺃ ﺡﻼﺻﺇ ﺓﻮﺠﻔﻟﺍ ﺪﺳ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳﻭ .2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﺽﺮﻓ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ

ﺭﺍﺪﺻﺇ ﻕﻮﻘﺣ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺗﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﻼﻳﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻸﻟ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺗﻭ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺔﻗﺎﻋﺇ ﻱﺮﲡ ﻻ ﻲﻜﻟ ﻥﺎﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺪﻴﻴﻘﺗ ﻪﻴﻓ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻢﻟﺎﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ

ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼ ﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺎﺑ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ :7 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻬﺠﻠﻟ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺸﻋ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ — ﺹﺎﳋﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻ ﺩﺎﳊﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻲﻔﻜﺗ ﻦﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﺕﺍﺭﻻﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺌﻣ ﺓﺪﻋ ﻰﻟﺇ — ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻻﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﻞﺑ .ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﺋﺎﻘﻟﺍ "ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻓﺪﻟﺍ"

ﺹﺎﳋﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺎﻄﻘﻠﻟ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ "ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺫﺎﺟ" ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺎﻬﻠﺑﺎﻘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

.ﺔﻠﻤﺘﶈﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻜﺘﺒﻣ ﻝﻮﻠﺣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﻮﺜﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺮﳊﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻣ :ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺍﺰﻴﻬﲡﻭ ﺕﺍﺪﻌﻣ ﻦﺤﺷ ﺩﺮﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻰﻨﻌﹸﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳﻭ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺪﻗ ﺰﻳﺰﻌﺗﻭ ﺏﺎﻌﻴﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻗ ﺀﺎﻨﺑ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻮﻬﻓ :ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺰﻫﺎﺟ

.ﹰﺔﻣﺀﻼﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗﻭ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺹﺎﳋﺍﻭ

ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻌﺑﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹼ ﻲﻀﳌﺍ ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻠﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ :8 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

،ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺴﻔﻨﻟﺍ :ﺰﺟﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﺔﳉﺎﻌﻣ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﺭ ﹼ ﻮﺼﺗ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ :ﻦﻣ ﺰﺟﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻊﺒﻨﺗﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﻻ ﺔﻘﻴﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍﻭ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﳌﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻃﺍﺮﻗﻭﺮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﻷﺍ ﻞﻤﻋ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃﻭ ،ﺎﻬﺑ ﻢﻫﺮﻴﻜﻔﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﳌ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳﻭ .ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺩﺪﲢ

ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻖﻳﻮﺴﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣﻭ ﻢﻬﻓ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻤﳉﺍ ﻑﻭﺎﺨﻣﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻤﺘﻫﺍ ﺔﻤﺟﺮﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻛﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍﻭ

.ﻦﻜﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﻦﻃﻮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺀﺪﺑ — ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻢﻬﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﺟﺮﺗ ﹼ ﻢﺛ


ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻣ ﻕﻮﻓ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ

ﺐ ﹼﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻪﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

.ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﻼﻳﺪﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺎﻔ ﹼﻴﻜﺗ

ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳﻭ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺈﺑ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺀﻞﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﻻﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﻴﻏﻭ ﺔﻔﺼﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺔﺒﺴﻧ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻉﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ ﺚﻠﺛ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

ﻊ ﹼﺳﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺝﺎﺘﲢ ،(1 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ) ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ

،ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ :ﻲﻓ ﻞﺋﺎﻬﻟﺍ

ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍﻭ ،ﺔﹼﻳﺮﻀﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺸﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷﺍﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻪﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ .ﻲﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻲﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺑﻭ - ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﻯﺮﺟ ﺍﺫﺇ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻧﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻓﺎﺜﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺩﹼﺮﺠﻣ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﹰﺍﺫﺇ ﺔﻟﺄﺴﳌﺎﻓ .ﺔﻳﺪﻴﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ

ﻞﺑ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﺎﲡ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ

ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﻲﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻲﻫ

3 ."ﺮﻴﻄﺧ" ﻲﺧﺎﻨﻣ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺙﺍﺪﺣﺇ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻫﺩﺯﻻﺍﻭ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻤﻜﺗ ﺔﻄﻴﺴﺑ ﺔﻠﻀﻌﻣ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻮﳕ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﲟ ﻢﻟﺎﻋ ﲔﺑ

ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻮﳕ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﲟ ﻢﻟﺎﻋﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ

ﺔﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻭﺃ - ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍﻭ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﻻﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻄﻴﺴﺑ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻜﻟﺎﻓ .ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ

ﻪﺟﻭﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻧ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ 4 .ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻞﻀﻓﺃﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻠﻟ

ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﲔﺑ ﺎﻣ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇﻭ ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 30 ﻭ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 20

ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻠﻟﻭ 5 .ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﻭﺩ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺃ ـ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮــﺟﺇ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻑﺪﻬﺘﺴﺗ

ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ


ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻥﺎﻛ ،ﺔﻨﺳ ﲔﺛﻼﺛ ﻞﺑ

ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺸﻴﻌﻳ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ

ﻚﻠﺘﻓ ،ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﺎﻣﺃ - ﻊﻗﺪﳌﺍ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ

ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ 1 .ﻊﺑﹼﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﻮﺳ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻌﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻔﻃﻷﺍ

ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺮﻐﺻﺃ ﺮ ﹼﻜﺒﹸﳌﺍ ﺕﻮﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎ ﻥﻮﺿﺮﻌﻣ ﻢﻫﻭ

ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﺎﻣﺃ .ﻖﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﳑ

ﻲﻬﻓ ﺔﺜﻳﺪﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﻒﻋﺎﻀﺗﻭ .ﹰﺍﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﻊﺳﻭﺃ ﻥﻵﺍ

ﻉﻮﻓﺪﳌﺍ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻮﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ

،ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ ﺡﻼﺻﺇﻭ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺎﺑ

،ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ

ﺯﺍﺮﺣﻹ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﺣ ﺮﻣﺃ ﻮﻫﻭ

ﻊﻣ ،ﺔﻠﺋﺎﻫ ﺖﻟﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻡ ﹼﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ

ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺺﺨﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﳌﺍ ﻉﺎﻴﳉﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻲﻄﺨﺗ

ﻚﻟﺫ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻊﻣﻭ 2 .ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻣ ﻝﻭﻷ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﻝﺍﺯﺎﻣ ،ﻉﻮﳉﺍﻭ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﻌﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﻮﻟﻭﻷﺍ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﺣ ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ

.ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ

ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﻌﺠﻳ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺬﺧﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺃ ،ﹰﻻﻭﺃ .ﹰﺍﺪﻴﻘﻌﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ

ﺱﺎﺒﺤﻧﺍ :ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻰﻠﺠﺘﻳ ﻮﻫﻭ ﺭﻮﻬﻈﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

،ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﺓ ﹼﺪـﺷﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ

ﺩﺍﺮﻓﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺎﺌﺒﻋ ﻞﻜﺸﻳ ﺎﳑ - ﹼﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﻮﻣﻭ

ﺩﺎﻌﺑﺇ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﹸﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻛﺮﺸﻟﺍﻭ

ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ،ﹰﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ .ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻦﻋ ﺩﺭﺍﻮـﳌﺍ

ﺮﻴﺜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺔﻨﻫﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﹼﺪﻌﳌﺎﺑ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻡﺎﻣﺃ ﺓ ﹼﺪ ﹺﺸﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﲢ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺔﻳﺎﻬﻧ ﻰﺘﺣﻭ

ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ 5 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ

ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺘﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ

ﻑﻼﺘﺧﻻﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﹰﺎﳌﺎﻋ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

ﺓﺪﺷ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺮﺻﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﺎﻨﳌﺎﻋ ﻦﻋ

ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﻻﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﺣﻭ

ﺮ ﹾﻤ ﹶﻏﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺗﺎﺒﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻧﺍﻮﻴﳊﺍ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﻋﺃ ﻲﻓ

ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺎﻬﻠﻣﺎﻜﺑ ﺔﹼﻳﺮﻳﺰﺟ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟ ﺭﺎﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ

ﺎﻬﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺎﻨﻨﻜﳝ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﺡﺎﳒ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﹼﻞﻘﻳ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻱﺃ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺘﻟ


ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﺡﻭﺍﺭ ،ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ (RD&D)

ﻦﻣ ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﺬﻨﻣ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 10

ﺔﻣﺯﺃ ﺐﻘﻋ ﺓﺪﳌﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﺼﻗ ﺓﺰﻔﻗ ﺍﺪﻋﺎﻣ ،ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 4 ﻯﻮﺳ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ﻻﻭ .ﻂﻔﻨﻟﺍ

ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﺇ ﺎﻣﺃ .ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 60-40 ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 0.5 ﻯﻮﺳ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ﻼﻓ ،ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺀﺰﺟ - ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺮﻳﺇ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻛ ﺔﻋﺪﺒﹸﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣ

(ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 8) ﺔﻴﻜﻠﺳﻼﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻜﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﺼﺗﻻﺍ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ (ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 15) ﺔﻴﻧﻻﺪﻴﺼﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ

10 .ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻢﻟﺎﻋ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺔﻠ ﹼﻤﻜﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﻹﺍﻭ

ﺎﻬﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ﺔﺌﻳﺮﺟ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻓ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺈﺑ ﺃﺪﺒﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺘﻟ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻠﺑﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻉﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺑ ﺮﻳﺮﲢ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﺄﺷ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻮﻫ ﺎﳑ .(2 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ)

ﺍﺫ ﹰﺎﻣﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ

ﺰﻔﺤﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﺩﺎﺣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﻗﺍﺪﺼﻣ

ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

،ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ :ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍﻭ

ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺔﻠﻳﺪﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻡﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ

ﺎﻬﺗﺭﺪﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﻳﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻱﺭﻮﻔﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺔﺴﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺔﻴﺤﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺡﺎﻤﺟ ﺢﺒﻛ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻻﺇ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺎﺑ

.ﺔﺼﻴﺧﺭ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺄﺑ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﹰﺍﺭﺍﺪﺻﺇ ﹼﻞﻗﺃ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﹼﻮﺤﺘﻠﻟ

- ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻦﻣ ﺹﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻒﻗﻮﺘﻳﻭ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻳ ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴ ﹼﻨﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻯﺪﻣ

ﺕﺍﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳﻭ .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ

ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻘﺴﺘﻣﻭ) ﺔﻔﺼﻨﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺮﺒﹸﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺎﻓ :(1992 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺱﺪﺳ ﺎﻬﻧﺎﻜﺳ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻎﻠﺒﻳ

ﻲﺜﻠﺛ ﺰﻫﺎﻨﺗ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﺻﺇ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻟﻭﺆﺴﻣ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ .(3 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ) ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻮﻟﺍ :ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ

ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺗ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻋ

ﺎﻬﻠﺣﺍﺮﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺪﻴﻴﺸﺗ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ - ﻰﻟﻭﻷﺍ

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻛﺎﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 2

ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ :ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ 1 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

2005 ،ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣﻭ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟ ﺪﻠﺒﻟ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ

ﻲﺿﻷ ﺎﻣﺪﺨﺘﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ

ﻲﺿﻷ ﺎﻣﺪﺨﺘﺳ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺑ

ﺮ ﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ

ﻲﺿﻷ ﺎﻣﺪﺨﺘﺳ

ﺮﺧﻷ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ

ﺪﻠﺒﻟ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ

ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ـ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺤﺼﻟﺍ :ﺕﻻﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻮﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﺍﻭ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺹﺮﻓ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﺑ ﺔﻄﺒﺗﺮﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

،ﺎﻬﺘﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﺍ ﻖﻘﺤﻳ ﺎﲟ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﻛ) ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍﻭ

ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ

ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷﻭ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﻖﻠﺧﻭ ،(ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺓﻮﻘﺑ ﺎﻫﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ

،ﺍﺬﻜﻫﻭ .ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺮﻀﳊﺍ ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺓﺪﻨﺟﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻘﻓﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﻞﺛﺎﳑ ﺔﻴﻨﻴﺗﻼﻟﺍ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍﻭ 6 .ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

7 .ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻮﻫ ﺎﳌ

ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﻻ ﺭﺎـــﻫﺩﺯﻻﺍﻭ ﺓﻭﺮﺜﻟﺍ ﺩﺎــﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻪﺘﻌﻴﺒﻄﺑ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻘﻓﺍﺮﺗ ﺎﻤﻬﻧﺃ ﻮﻟﻭ - ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍﻭ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻁﺎﳕﺃ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﻮﻟ ﻰﺘﺣﻭ .ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺩﺎــﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆـﺗ

ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﻂﻔﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﺠﺘﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻧﺪﻌﺒﺘﺳﺍ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﺎﻨﻃﺃ 7 ﻦﻣ :ﻝﺎﺜﻣﺃ ﺔﻌﺑﺭﺄﺑ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﺗ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ

8 (CO 2e) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻨﻃ 27 ﻰﻟﺇ ﺍﺮﺴﻳﻮﺳ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

9 .ﻍﺭﻮﺒﻤﺴﻜﻟﻭ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺃ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣﻭ

،ﻪﻳﺩﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ﹰﺍﺮﻣﺃ ﻱﺭﻮﻔﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ

ﻦﻋ ﺚﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﺔﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻌﻟ ﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ

ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻋﻹﺍ ﺰﻫﺎﻨﺗ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒﻓ .ﻞﺋﺍﺪﺑ

150 ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻄﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺠﺘﻨﳌﺍ

(ﺎﻨﻃ) ﺮﻔﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ

16

ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻠﺒﻟ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺪﻠﺒﻟ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟ

ﻦﻣ ﺓﺫﻮﺧﺄﻣ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﻊﻣ (WRI 2008) ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺪﻬﻌﻣ ؛World Bank 2008c :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

.Houghton 2009

(N 2O) ﲔﺟﻭﺮﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃﻭ ،(CH 4) ﻥﺎﺜﻴﳌﺍﻭ ،(CO 2) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ :ﻞﻤﺸﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺏﺍﺮﻋﻹﺍ ﻢﺘﻳ ،ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻤﺟﺈﺑ ﺎﻫﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﻜﻟﻭ .(F-gases) ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣﻹﺍ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺔﻴﻤﻛ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻛ ﺲﻴﻘﻳ ﻮﻫﻭ ،(CO 2e) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﺚﻴﺣ

ﻊﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺏﺎﺴﺣ ﻢﺘﻳ .ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﳌﺍ ﺲﻔﻧ ﺐﺒﺴﺗ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ،2005 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑﻭ

.ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺔﻠﻴﺌﺿ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0


3 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

2005 ﺎﻌﻟ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺿﺎﳌ ﻲﻓ ،ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟ

ﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌ ﺎﻐﻟ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧ

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧ ﻮﻤﺠﻣ

،ﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ :2005 ﺎﻌﻟ ﻲﻓ ﺮﳊ :2005 ﺎﻌﻟ ﻲﻓ ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ

:1850 ﺎﻌﻟ ﺬﻨﻣ ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ

ﻲﺿﻷ ﺎﻣﺪﺨﺘﺳ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟ ﺎﻄﻗ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟ ﺎﻄﻗ

%6

%3

%2

%38

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻫﺪﺣﻭ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻝﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ :ﻥﺯﺍﻮﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ 2 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﻪﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺮﶈﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﺗ ﺏﺎﻛﺭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺳ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ (SUVs) ﺔﻴﺿﺎﻳﺮﻟﺍ

ﺺﺨﺷ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 1.6 ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ

(ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻨﻃﻷ ﲔﻳﻼﻣ) ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ

350

ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 1.6 ﺪﻳﺰﺘﺑ ﺰﺗ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ

ﺪﻘﻟ ﻢﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﻦﳑ ﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺎﺑ

ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻮﺼﳊ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﳑ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻢﻬﺴﺗ ﻝﺍﺰﺗ ﺎﻣﻭ ﺖﻤﻬﺳﺃ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ 3 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

%47

%56

(ﺺﺨﺷ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 4.2) ﻞﺧﺪﻟ ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺪﻠﺑ

ﺎﻜﺴﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺎﺳﺎﻴﻗ ﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻ ﺮﻓ

ﺎﻴﺴﻟ ﻮﻄﺳ ﻞﻳﻮﺤﺘﺑ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻲﻓ ﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﻣ ﻰﻟ ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷ ﺔﻴﺿﺎﻳﺮﻟ

ﻲﺑﻷ ﺎﲢﻻ ﺎﻫﺪﻤﺘﻋ ﻲﺘﻟ ﻮﻗﻮﻟ ﺪﺨﺘﺳ

.BTS 2008 ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻓ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﺴﺣ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﻞﻴﻣ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 480 ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺎﻣ ﺮﻴﺴﺗ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺿﺎﻳﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 40 ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﻚﻟﺫ ﻚﻠﻬﺘﺴﻳ ،ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻟﺎﻐﻠﻟ ﹰﻼﻴﻣ 18 ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻠﻟ ﺩﻭﺩﺮﻣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻊﻣ .ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ (ﺓﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﻴﺴﻠﻟ ﻞﻴﻣ 12000 ﺽﺍﺮﺘﻓﺎﺑ)

ﻝﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺎﻓ .ﻥﻮﻟﺎﻏ ﻞﻜﻟ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻡﺍﺮﻏ 2421 ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺭﺪﺼﻳﻭ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻦﻳﺰﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻟﺎﻏ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 27 ﺩﺪﻌﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﻟﺎﻐﻠﻟ ﹰﻼﻴﻣ 45) ﻲﺑﻭﺭﻭﻷﺍ ﺩﺎﲢﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻉﺎﺒﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﻛﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺳ ﻪﺤﻴﺘﺗ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺩﻮﻗﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺳ ﻰﻟﺇ

(ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 39) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 142 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ (ICCT 2007 ﺮﻈﻧﺃ ،ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺺﺨﺸﻠﻟ ﺔﻋﺎﺳ/ﻁﺍﻭﻮﻠﻴﻛ 170 ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﺳﻷﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ .ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 160 ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳ ﺎﻣ ،ﺔﻋﺎﺳ/ﻁﺍﻭﻮﻠﻴﻛ ﻞﻜﻟ ﻡﺍﺮﻏ 160 ﺔﻐﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻛ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺽﺍﺮﺘﻓﺍ ﻊﻣ ،ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ ﺹﺎﺨﺷﻷﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻖﻓﺍﻮﻳ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﻳﺮﺧ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺋﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺰﻣﺮﻟﺍ ﻢﺠﺤﻓ .(ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 44) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ

.ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﻢﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ

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(ﺺﺨﺷ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 1.2) ﻞﺧﺪﻟ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺪﻠﺑ

(ﺺﺨﺷ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ) ﻞﺧﺪﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺪﻠﺑ

DOE 2009; World Bank 2008c; WRI 2008 augmented with land-use change emissions from :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

.Houghton 2009

ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺮﺸﻋ ﻊﺳﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻦﻋ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺮﻓﻮﺘﺗ ﻻﻭ .ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻠﻟ ﹰﺍﺪﻠﺑ 200 ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻄﻐﺗ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .ﺔﺒﻘﳊﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺕﺭﺪﺻﺃ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .ﺖﻨﻤﺳﻻﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇﻭ ،ﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻌﺷﺇﻭ ،ﻱﺭﻮﻔﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻕﺍﺮﺣﺇ :ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

.ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣﻹﺍ ﺕﺍﺫ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ،ﲔﺟﻭﺮﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃﻭ ،ﻥﺎﺜﻴﳌﺍ ﺯﺎﻏﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ :ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

.ﺕﺎﻳﺎﻔﻨﻟﺍﻭ ،(Houghton 2009 ﻦﻣ) ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ :ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ

؛ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺔﺌﻓﺎﻜﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﺤﻧﻻﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻣ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﹰﺎﺳﺎﻴﻗ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﺸﻣ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻁﺮﻓ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺖﻠﻜﺷ ،1850 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺬﻨﻣﻭ ؛ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 16 ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺖﻠ ﹼﻜﺷ ،2005 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻔﻓ

.ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 20 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

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ﻥﻷ ﻲﻔﻜﺗ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﻟ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻭ ﻲﻫ - ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ

11 .ﻊﻴﻤﺠﻠﻟ ﺔﺤﺿﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ

ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ - ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻚﻴﻫﺎﻧ - ﻊﺿﻭ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻼﻳﻮﲢ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﻮﻄﻨﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩ

.ﻞﻬﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻣﻷﺎﺑ ﺲﻴﻟ ﺔﻣﻮﻠﻌﻣﻭ ﺓﺮﻘﺘﺴﻣﻭ

ﺪﺷﻷﺍ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ - ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﺤﺘﺳ

ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﻵ ﹰﺎﺿﹼﺮﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺍﺮﻘﻓ

ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﻬﻓ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ

ﺕﺍﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺓ ﹼﺪﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﻥﻵﺍ

ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺎﻓ .(2 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ

ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ ﺔﻔﻴﻔﻃ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻮﻟﻭ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ

ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ :ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﻼﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﺐ ﹼﻠﻄﺘﻴﺳ

ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗﻭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷﺍﻭ ،ﻢﻬﻗﺍﺯﺭﻷ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﻛ

.ﻢﻬﻬﺟﺍﻮﺗ

ﺔ ﹼﺠﺣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺔﻣﺯﻷﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺯﻮﺠﻳ ﻻ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺔﻣﺯﻷﺎﻓ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻀﻗ ﺔﳉﺎﻌﻣ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺘﻟ

ﺮﻔﺴﺗﻭ ،ﲔﺘﻨﺳ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻡﻭﺪﺗ

ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 3 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﺧ ﻦﻋ

ﹰﺎﻘﺣﻻ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﺘﻳﻭ ،(GDP) ﻲﻠﶈﺍ

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻧﺎﻤﺛ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 20 ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ ﻮﻤﻨﺑ

ﺕﺎﻣﺯﻷﺍ ﻲﺗﺄﺗ ،ﺍﺬﻜﻫﻭ 12 .ﺭﺎﻫﺩﺯﻻﺍﻭ ﺵﺎﻌﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻫﺬﺗﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ

ﻝﺎﺣ ﻲﻫ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

؟ﺍﺫﺎﳌ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﳌﺍ ﺮﻄﳋﺍ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺮﺛﺄﻓ .ﺎﻨﺒﻧﺎﺟ ﻲﻓ ﺲﻴﻟ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ

ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﹰﺍﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻰﻘﺒﻳ ﻮﳉﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻖﻠﻄﻨﹸﳌﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻞﻌﺠﻳ ﺎﳑ 13 ،ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻑﻻﺁ ﻰﺘﺣﻭ ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﺓﺪﻌﻟ

."ﻥﻮﻣﺄﻣ" ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺩﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺐﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻓ

ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹼﺪﺤﻳ

ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﺿﺍﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ ﻦﻋ

14 .ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ

ﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﻲﻔﺘﺨﺗﻭ ،ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺮﺛﺃ ﺀﻮﺳ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻ

ﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﻴﺧﺮﻟﺍ ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ

ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺤﻧﻻ

- ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺓﺎﻴﳊﺍ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﺃﻭ

.ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ

ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻹ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻓ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻊﻣﻭ .ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻣ ﺏﺮﻗﺃ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﻮﻬﻓ ،ﹰﺎﺑﻮﻏﺮﻣ ﺲﻴﻟ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﳌﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﺃ

ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻣ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺀﺍﺮﺒﺧ ﲔﺑ ﻱﺃﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ .ﻪﺑ

ﺔﻬﺟﻭ ﻦﻣ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ

ﻁﺎﺳﻭﻷﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻌﻧﺎﺻ ﲔﺑ ﻱﺃﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺪﻨﻋ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ

ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺪﻳﺆﻳﻭ 15 .ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﳌﺎﺑ ﺭﻮﻌﺸﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ

،ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﻦﻤﻓ .ﻒﻗﻮﳌﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ

ﻮﻫ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻝﻮﺒﻘﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺔﻃﺎﺴﺒﺑ ﺮﻣﺃ

ﺕﻻﹼﻮﲢ :ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ


ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻲﻋﺍﻭﺩ

ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺩﺍﺩﺯﺍ

ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺍﺪﺑ ﺬﻨﻣ ﺓﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ

ﻊﺑﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﻤﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻘﻳﻭ .ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ

ﺖﻘﻔﺗﺍ ﺔﺳﺍﺭﺩ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ

ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻟﺎﻋ 2000 ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺀﺍﺭﺁ ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺸﺑ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ" :ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﻀﻋﻷﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻟﺎﻓ 16 "ﻪﻴﻓ ﺲﺒﻟ ﻻ ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ

ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻮﻫﻭ - ﻱﻮﳉﺍ

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 200 ﲔﺑ ﺖﺣﻭﺍﺮﺗ - ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻨﺳ 800000 ﺓﺪﳌ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 300 ﻭ

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 387 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﻌﻳﺮﺳ ﺖﻌﻔﺗﺭﺍ

ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ) ﺔﻴﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﲔﺴﻤﳋﺍﻭ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﻕﺮﺣ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﺓﺭﻮﺼﺑ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻢﳒﻭ ،(4

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ - ﻞﻗﺃ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﺑﻭ - ﻱﺭﻮﻔﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ

ﺪﻘﻋ ﹼﻲﻀ ﹸﻣ ﺪﻌﺑﻭ .ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗﻭ

ﹰﺍﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻮﺗﻮﻴﻛ ﻝﻮﻛﻮﺗﻭﺮﺑ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ

ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﺘﻓ ﻝﻭﺃ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﺧﺩ ﻊﻣﻭ -

ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﺔﻣﺭﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﺴﳊﺍ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺖﻟﺍﺯﺎﻣ - ﺎﻬﻨﻋ

ﺃﻮﺳﻷﺍﻭ .ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺬﺧﺁ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

17 .ﻉﺭﺎﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺬﺧﺁ ﺎﻫﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻝﺪﻌﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻣ

:ﺔﺌﻴﻫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺔﺤﺿﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ

،ﺕﺎﻄﻴﶈﺍﻭ ﺀﺍﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ

ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍﻭ ،ﺪﻴﻠﳉﺍﻭ ﺝﻮﻠﺜﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﺑﻭﺫ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍﻭ

ﺓﺩﺭﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻴﻠﻟﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﻳﻷﺍ ﺖﺤﺒﺻﺃﻭ .ﺭﺎﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ

.ﹼﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﻮﻣ ﺖﻋﺎﺷ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ ﹰﺎﺛﻭﺪﺣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻊﻴﻘﺼﻟﺍﻭ

ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﻁﻮﻘﺳ ﺩﺍﺩﺯﺍ ،ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ

ﻑﺎﻔﳉﺍ ﺓﺪﺣﻭ ﺕﺍﺮﺘﻓ ﺩﺎـﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

،ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺃ :ﻩﺪﻬﺸﺗ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺤﻧﺍﻭ

،ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺽﻮﺣﻭ ،ﻰﻄﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﺎﻴﺳﺁﻭ

ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﺏﺮﻏﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﻷﺍ ﻞﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣﻭ

ﺖﺤﺒﺻﺃﻭ .ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

،ﹰﺎﻋﻮﻴﺷ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﻳﺰﻐﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ

ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﺕﺩﺍﺩﺯﺍ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﺓﺪﺷ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺕﺩﺍﺩﺯﺍ ﺎﲟﺭﻭ - ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺪﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﺻﺎﻋﻷﺍﻭ

.ﺮﻴﺻﺎﻋﻷﺍﻭ ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ

،ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﺩﺪﻬﺘﻳ ﺮﻄﺧ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﺻﺎﺧ ﺓﺭﻮﺼﺑ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﹰﺍﺪﻳﺪﻬﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ

ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ 5 ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺄﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺎﻓ .ﻊﻴﻤﺠﻠﻟ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﻄﺧ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻮﻫﻭ - ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻕﺮﻔﻟﺍ 18 ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳ - ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ

ﺖﻠﺻﻭ ﲔﺣ ﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﻱﺪﻴﻠﳉﺍ ﺮﺼﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺏﺎﺘﻋﺃ ﺖﻐﻠﺑﻭ ﻰﻄﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﺎﺑﻭﺭﻭﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﻮﻤﳉﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻊﻗﻭ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻙﺭﻮﻳﻮﻴﻧ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ

ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺎﻣﺃ ،ﲔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻑﻻﺁ

،ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺮﻗ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﻮﻬﻓ ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻌﻓﺃ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﻻﻭ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺠﻤﻠﻟ ﻲﻄﻌﻳ ﻻ ﺎﳑ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻛﺬﹸﺗ ﺔﻴﻨﻣﺯ ﺓﺪـﻣ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 4

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺓﺭﻮﺛﻭ ،ﺓﺎﻴﳊﺍ ﺏﻮﻠﺳﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ

ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﻷ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ

ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻈﻴﺳﻭ .ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﻲــﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ

ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺎﻓ ،ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺗ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻗ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ

.ﻱﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺲﻨﳉﺍ ﺎﻬﺑ ﻢﻌﻨﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﺪﺑﻹﺍﻭ

ﻡﻮﻤﻋﻲﻓﺮﺸﺘﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍﺔﺛﻼﺜﻟﺍﺰﻴﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍﺭﻭﺎﺤﻣ

،ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ :ﻲﻫ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ

ﺰ ﹼﻴﲤ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺻﺎﳋﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻓ .ﻉﺍﺪﺑﻹﺍﻭ

ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻮﻫ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺛﺎﳌﺍ ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ

ﻮﻬﻓ ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍ ﺎﻣﺃ .ﻥﻵﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﻡﺰﻠﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ

ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﻮﺜﻌﻠﻟ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﺜﻟﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺓﺎﺳﺄﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻬﻟ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﻣ ﹼﻞﺣ

ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻮﻫ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻋﺎﺸﳌﺎﺑ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺪﻴﺣﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﳊﺍ ﻮﻫ ﻉﺍﺪﺑﻹﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﹰﺔﻳﻮﺳﻭ

ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﲔﺘﻬﺟﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻘﻌﻣ ﺔﻟﺄﺴﳌ

ﺎﻨﻟ ﻞ ﹼﻬﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺰﻴﳌﺍ - ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍﻭ

ﻲﻓ ﻞﻤﻌﻧ ﺎﻨﻛ ﺎﻤﻋ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻳ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﻞﻤﻌﻨﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻳﻮﺳ ﻞﻤﻌﻨﻟﻭ ،ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻨﻠﻓ .ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻄﳋﺍ ﻲﻫ ﻚﻠﺘﻓ - ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺐﻳﺮﻗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻞﻌﲡ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﹴﻉﺍﻭﺩ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﺑ ﻥﺎﳝﻹﺍ ﹰﻻﻭﺃ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻝﺎﻨﳌﺍ

.ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﻡﺰﻠﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﻻ

0

2100 ﺎﻌﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﻮﻳﺎﻨﻴﺳ

2100 ﺎﻌﻟ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﻮﻳﺎﻨﻴﺳ

2007 ﺎﻌﻟ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻫﺎﺸﳌ

100,000

200,000

300,000

ﻲﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﺳﺮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ 4 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

400,000

ﻵ ﻞﺒﻗ ﻮﻨﺴﻟ ﺪﻋ

500,000

(ﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺰﺟ) ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺰﻛﺮﺗ

1,000

600,000

700,000

800

600

400

200

0

800,000

.Lüthi and others 2008 :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﻨﺳ 800000 ﺬﻨﻣ ﻲﺑﻮﻨﳉﺍ ﺐﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻠﺟ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨﻴﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺰﺠﺘﶈﺍ ﺀﺍﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻘﻔﻟ ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﻖﺛﻮﻳ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺩﺃ ،ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻄﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ

ﺐﻌﻟ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺢﺿﻮﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 300-170 ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

387 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻨﻓ .ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻳﺰﻛﺮﻣ ﹰﺍﺭﻭﺩ

ﻦﻣ ﺢﻀﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ،ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻨﺳ 800000 ﻦﻋ ﻞﻘﻳ ﻻ ﺎﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 30 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ

.2100 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﲔﻌﻗﻮﺘﻣ ﲔﻨﺛﺍ ﲔﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳ


5 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺢﻴﻘﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻗ ﺔﻄﻳﺮﳋﺍ

ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎـﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ

ﻁﺎﳕﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﻮﻟﻭ

ﺐﻗﺍﻮﻋ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ

ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﺙﻭﺪﺣ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻴﺳ ﺎﳑﻭ .ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻋ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﺲﻜﻋﻭ ﺎﻬﻔﻗﻭ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ﺔﻴﺛﺭﺎﻛ

ﺓﺪﺣﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﺗﻭﻭ ،ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺗ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ

ﻲﻠﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺪﻤﻠﻟ ﺽﺮﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺸﻟﺍ ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻮﻟﺍ

ﺽﺮﻌﺘﻴﺳﻭ .ﺀﺎﺟﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻠﻟ ﺐﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ

ﺮﺧﺁ ﺺﺨﺷ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 400 ﻭ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 100 ﲔﺑ ﺎﻣ

ﲔﺑ ﺎﻣ ﻯﺪﻟ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻻ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ 22 .ﻉﻮﳉﺍ ﺮﻃﺎ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻔﻜﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺺﺨﺷ ﻱﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣﻭ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ

ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻛﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻢﻬﺗﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺪﺴﻟ

23 .ﻡﺎﻌﻄﻟﺍ ﻲﻬﻃﻭ ﺔﻴﺼﺨﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻸﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﺮﻌﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﻊﻘﻴﺳ .ﺎﻬﻫﺎﲡ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﻣ ﻞﻗﻷﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺎﻓ .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻢﺋﺍﺩ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ

ﻱﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 5-4 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ

24 ،ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﺏﻮﻨﺟﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻠﻴﺌﺿ ﺮﺋﺎﺴﺨﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ

ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍﻭ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ

ﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺪﺟﻮﺗ ﻻ

ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻌﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻄﹸﳋﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻳﺪﺸﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺄﺷ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺍﺬﻫ

ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺠﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻳﻮﻴﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ

ﺕﻮﻣ ﻥﺎﻜﻣﺇ :ﻞﺜﻣ - ﺎﻬﺗﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻘﻔﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺮﻴﻄﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺯﺎــﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻏ

،ﺎﻳﻻﺎﻤﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﺒﺟﻭ ﺰﻳﺪﻧﻷﺍ ﻝﺎﺒﺟ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﻮﻤﳉ

ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺚﻴﺤﺑ ﺕﺎﻄﻴﶈﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﺾ ﹼﻤﺤﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﺔﻳﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺏﺍﺮﻄﺿﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺔﻋﺮﺴﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺔﻴﻧﺎﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﺐﻌﺸﻟﺍ ﺕﻮـﻣﻭ

ﻲﻓ 50 ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺀﺎﻀﻘﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﺠﺣﻭ

ﻊﻔﺗﺮﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻉﺍﻮﻧﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ

ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺮﺘﻣ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃﻭ ﺺﺨﺷ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 60 ﺩﺪﻬﻳ ﺎﳑ 19،ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻝﻮﺻﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 200

ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﺢﺟﺮﹸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ 20 .ﺎﻫﺪﺣﻭ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ

ﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﰎ ﻮﻟ ﻰﺘﺣ ،ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺪﳌﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ -

ﺪﻗﻭ .ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻞﻛ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺺﺨﺷ ﲔﻳﻼﻣ ﺔﺛﻼﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺕﻮﳝ

21 .ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺘﻟﺍ IBRD 37088_F3.3 ﺀﻮﺴﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺔﻨﺳ

2050 ﺎﻌﻟ ﺮﺿﺎﳊ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻠﻐﻟ ﻲﻓ ﺮ ﻴﻐﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﳌ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟ

100 50 20 0 -20 -55

August 2009

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﺀﻮﺿ ﻲﻓ ،2050 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻏ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺩﺆﻴﺳ 1 ﺔﻄﻳﺮﳋﺍ

.Müller and others 2009; World Bank 2008c :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﺩﺎﺒﻋﻭ ،ﻲﻧﺍﺩﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻔﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺎﻳﻮﺼﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻓﻭ ،ﺓﻮﻠﳊﺍ ﺎﻃﺎﻄﺒﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺮﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺪﻨﻤﺷﻭ ،ﻝﻮﻘﳊﺍ ﺀﻻﺯﺎﺑﻭ ،ﻦﺧﺪﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺭﺬﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺯﺭﻷﺍﻭ ،ﺢﻤﻘﻟﺍ) ﹰﺎﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﹰﻻﻮﺼﺤﻣ 11 ﺔﻠﻏ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺔﻌﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﳌﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﻗﺮﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﲔﺒﻳ ﹼ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺰﻳﺰﻌﺗ) ﻲﻧﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﺐﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺽﺍﺮﺘﻓﺍ ﻊﻣ ،ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ ﺔﺴﻤﺧ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳ ﺔﺛﻼﺛ ﻂﻴﺳﻭ ﻲﻫ ﻢﹶﻴﻘﻟﺍﻭ .2005-1996 ﺓﺮﺘﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ 2055-2046 ﺓﺮﺘﻔﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ (ﺖﻔﻠﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺲﻤﺸﻟﺍ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻠﻐﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﻲﺒﻠﺳ ﺮﺛﺃ ﺙﻭﺪﺣ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ .(ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻄﻴﶈﺍ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛﻭ ﺕﺎﺗﺎﺒﻨﻟﺍ ﻮﻤﻨﻟ – ﻡﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﲟ – ﻦﻜﳑ

.ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ


ﻩﺎﲡ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺴﳊﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﺗ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ

ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻧﺎﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﺶﻴﻌﻳﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

.ﺓﺮﻄﺧ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃﻭ ﹰﺎﻴﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺔﻓﻮﺸﻜﻣ

ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺍﺭﺪﻗﻭ

ﺾﻌﺑ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻮﻌﻧﺎﺻ ﻩﻮﻨﻳﻭ .ﺓﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻪﻧﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮـﻏﻷ ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻧﺯﺍﻮﻣ

27 .ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﺉﺭﺍﻮﻃ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﺘﺳ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍﻭ .ﻝﺪﺘﻌﳌﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺎﺑ

ﺎﻬﻧﻷ ﺔﻴﻨﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺘﺳ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 6

ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺏﺎﺒﺳﻷ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺿﹼﺮﻌﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺫ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ 1 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﺐﻗﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﺎﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﺒﺸﻋ ﺽﺍﺭﺃ

ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﺎﲟﺭﻭ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﻴﺧﻭ

.ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻄﻘﻧ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﺗ

،ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻝﺎﻤﺷﻭ ﻂﺳﻭﻷﺍ ﻕﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ

.ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻸﻟ ﹰﻻﻮﻄﻫ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻲﻫﻭ

ﺎﻬﻴﻓ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻓﻮﺗ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﻣ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ

2050 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﻒﺼﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

ﻯﺪﻟ ﺖﺴﻴﻟﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺾﻐﺑ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻛﺬﹸﺗ ﺔﺑﺍﺬﺟ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 90 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻥﻷ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ

ﻒﻠﺧ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺔﻧﻭﺰﺨﻣ ﺔﺑﺬﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ

ﺎﻬﻧﺍﺮﺘﻗﺍﻭ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﺤﺷ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺩﻭﺪﺳ

،ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻸﻟ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺾﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺎﺑ

ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 85 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺫﻮﺤﺘﺴﺗ ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ

ﺎﳑﻭ .ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﺓﺪﺷ :ﻩﺬﻫ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍﻭ ﻒﻌﻀﻟﺍ ﻪﺟﻭﺃ ﻢﻗﺎﻔﻳ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻁﺎﺸﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺮﺗﻮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻠﻟ ﺔﺿﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ

ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ

.ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺔ ﹼﺤ ﹺﺸﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ

ﻦﻣ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﺏﻮﻨﺟ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﳉﺍ ﺎﻬﻋﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺕﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺍﺮﺘﻗﺍﻭ

ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﹸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ

ﺡﺎﻳﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻩﺮﺛﺃ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 70 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻲﺗﺄﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﺳﻮﳌﺍ

،ﺮﻬﺷﺃ ﺔﻌﺑﺭﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﺘﻓ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺎﻳﻻﺎﻤﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﺒﺟ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﻮﻤﺟ ﻥﺎﺑﻭﺫ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ

ﹰﺍﺭﺪﺼﻣ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺃ

،ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﻖﻠﻘﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺧﺁ

،ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻈﺘﻜﻣ ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻃ ﻞﺣﺍﻮﺳ :ﺕﺍﺫ ﻲﻬﻓ

ﺎﻬﻤﺤﺘﻘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺮﻄﳋ ﺔﺿﺮﻌﻣ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻝﻮﻬﺳﻭ

ﻲﻓﻭ .ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﻻﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺭﺰﺟﻭ ،ﺔﳊﺎﳌﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

،ﹰﺓﺪﺷ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳ

ﺮﻤﻏ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻱﺩﺆﻴﺳ

ﻲﻓ 18 ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﻕﺍﺮﻏﺇﻭ ﻒﻳﺪﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺭﺰﺟ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ

.ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﺔﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ

de la Torre, Fajnzylber, and Nash :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

2008; Fay, Block and Einger 2009; World

Bank 2007a; World Bank 2007c; World

.Bank2008b; World Bank 2009b

ﺕﺎﻳﺬﻐﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻓﻵﺍ ﺕﺍﺪﻴﺒﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺤﻄﺴﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻕﺮﺷ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺙﻭﺭﻮﳌﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻧ ﻰﻄﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﺎﻴﺳﺁﻭ ﺎﺑﻭﺭﻭﺃ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺀﻮﺳ :ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺘﻴﻴﻓﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺪﻬﻌﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﺃ ﻒﻌﺿﻭ ،ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ

ﺔﻠﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻰﻄﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻛ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍﻭ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻠ ﹼﺜﻤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﺛﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻗﺎﻔ ﹸﻣ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ) ﻝﺍﺭﺁ ﺮﺤﺑ ﻝﺍﻭﺯ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ

(ﻱﻭﺍﺮﺤﺻ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﻑﺎﳉﺍ ﻩﺮﻌﻗ ﻦﻣ ﺡﻼﻣﻷﺍﻭ ﻝﺎﻣﺮﻟﺍ ﺐﻬﺗ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ

،ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﻂﺳﻭ ﻲﻓ (ﺪﻴﻠﳉﺍ ﺭﺎﻬﻧﺃ) ﺕﺎﻳﺩﻮﻤﹸﳉﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻠﳉﺍ ﻥﺎﺑﻭﺫ ﻞ ﹼﺠﻌﻳ ﺎﳑ

ﻦﻛﺎﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺎﻓ .ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ

- ﺔﻧﺎﻴﺼﻟﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻴﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺳﻭ ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﺘﳌﺍ

ﺓﺪﻴﺸﳌﺍﻭ ﻲﺘﻴﻴﻓﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺪﻬﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺛﻭﺭﻮﳌﺍ

ﺮﻴﻏ - ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﺓﺮﺘﻓ ﻲﻓ

ﻭﺃ ﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﻮﻣﻭ ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﻞ ﹼﻤﺤﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ

.ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍ

ﻲﺒﻳﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﻴﺗﻼﻟﺍ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺗ ﺪﻬﺸﺗ

،ﹰﻻﻭﺃ .ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻠﻟ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ

ﻝﺎﺒﺟ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺪﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﻮﻤﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻭﺯ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻓﻮﺗ ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻛﻭ ﺖﻴﻗﻮﺗ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﺰﻳﺪﻧﻷﺍ

ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﺓﺪﻌﻟ

ﻲﻓ ﺺﺨﺷ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 77 ﻞﻗﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﺎﳌ

ﺾﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻊﻣ ،2020 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺐﻳﺮﻗ ﺪﻋﻮﻣ

ﺎﻬﻧﺃ ﺚﻴﺣ ﺮﻄﺨﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻣﻭﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺋﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺭﺪﺼﻣ

،ﹰﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ .ﺔﻴﺑﻮﻨﳉﺍ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺆﻴﺳ ﺎﻬﻀ ﹼﻤﲢﻭ ﺕﺎﻄﻴﶈﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ

ﺐﻌ ﹸﺸﻟﺍ ﺕﻮﻣ ﺎﲟﺭ ﻭﺃ ﺾ ﹼﻴﺒﺗ ﺮﺗﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

:ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻫﻭ ،ﻲﺒﻳﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﺟﺮﳌﺍ

ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 65 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺦﻳﺮﻔﺗ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻣ ﻦ ﹼﻤﻀﺘﺗ

،ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺽﻮﺣ ﻲﻓ ﻙﺎﻤﺳﻷﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻦﻣ

ﺀﺎﻨﺛﺃ ﺝﺍﻮﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﺢﻴﺘﺗﻭ

ﻝﻮﺻﻷﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗﻭ ،ﺀﺎﺟﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ

ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ،ﹰﺎﺜﻟﺎﺛ .ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﺣﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﺒﻃﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻴﺼﺘﺳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ

ﻞﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻚﻴﺴﻜﳌﺍ ﺞﻴﻠﺧ

ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﹰﺎﻌﺑﺍﺭ .ﹰﺍﺮﺗﺍﻮﺗﻭ ﺓﺪﺣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺮﻴﺻﺎﻋﻷ

ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﺓﺮﻴﻄﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺯﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﻮﳌﺍ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻌﺳﺎﺷ ﺕﺎﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﻝﹼﻮﲢ ﻊﻣ ﻲﺛﺭﺎﻛ ﺮﺛﺃ

ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 1 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳ ﺎﲟ

ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻢﺠﻨﺘﺳﻭ 25 .ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﹼﻡﺎﻫ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﻦﻋ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﺏﻮﻨﺟﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻ

.(1 ﺔﻄﻳﺮﳋﺍ) ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﺪﺣ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻔﺗ

- ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﻞ ﹼﻤﺤﺘﺘﺳ

ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺓﺪﻋ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫﻭ 26 .ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 80-75 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺎﻓ .(1 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﻚﻟﺫ ﺢﺿﻮﺗ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﳌﺍ ﺱﺃﺭﻭ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻌﺋﺎﺸﻟﺍ ﻞﻛﺎﺸﳌﺍ

ﻒﻌﺿﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ -

ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣ ﹰﺎﺑﺎﺒﺳﺃ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗ - ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ

ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺎﻬﺿﺮﻌﺗﻭ ﺎﻬﻔﻌﻀﻟ

ﺎﻬﺘﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﺟ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻧ ﺔ ﹼﻤﻬ ﹸﻣ ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ

.ﺎﻬﺨﻳﺭﺎﺗﻭ

ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﺀﺍﺮﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﺏﻮﻨﺟ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ

ﺀﺍﺮﺤﺻ ﺎﻬﺘﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﺎﺜﻠﺛ) ﺎﻬﺘﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻒﻌﺿ ﻦﻣ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ (ﺔﻠﺣﺎﻗ ﹴﺽﺍﺭﺃ ﻭﺃ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﻑﺎﻔﺠﻠﻟ ﺎﻬﺿﺮﻌﺗ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺔﻠﺘﻜﻟﺍ ﺢﻴﺘﺗﻭ .ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻻﺍ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺪﻣﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 80 ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻴﺣﻷﺍ

ﺔﻴﻠﻌﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻢﻬﺴﺗﻭ .ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ

ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 30 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 70 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﳊ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻓ ﺢﻴﺘﺗﻭ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻖﻴﻌﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻊﻣ ،ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

.ﺎﻫﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺓﺮﻓﻭ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ

،ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺗﺎﻗ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﺎﻳﺭﻼﳌﺍ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗﻭ

ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺬﺧﺁ ﻲﻫﻭ

.ﻖﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻨﻣﺁ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﹰﺎﻋﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ

،ﺉﺩﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﻂﻴﶈﺍﻭ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﻕﺮﺷ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍﻭ ﻒﻌﻀﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﺒﺳﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ

ﻝﻮﻃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﺸﻴﻌﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﺮﺒﻛ

ﺮﺜﻛﺃ - ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﻻﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﺭﺰﳉﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﻞﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ

ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣﻭ ﲔﺼﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺺﺨﺷ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 130 ﻦﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻭﺃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 40

ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﻫ ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺐﺒﺴﻟﺍ .ﻡﺎﻨﺘﻴﻴﻓ

ﺪﺷﻷﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ - ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻊﻣﻭ .ﹰﺍﺮﻘﻓ

ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣﻭ

ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗﻭ ﻱﺮﻀﳊﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ

ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﻊﻴﻨﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺮﺳ

ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺪﻴﻘﻌﺗ ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻭ ﺓﺪﺷﻭ

ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻎﻧﻮﻜﻴﳌﺍ ﺮﻬﻧ ﺽﻮﺣ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺎﻬﺗﺭﺍﺩﺇ

ﺓﺪﺣ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﻞﺼﻓ ﺪﻬﺸﻴﺳ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ

ﻦﻳﺮﻬﺷ ﻑﺎﻔﳉﺍ ﻞﺼﻓ ﻝﻮﻄﻳ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ ،ﺎﻬﻟﻮﻄﻫ

ﻩﺬﻫ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻮﻫ ﺚﻟﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺐﺒﺴﻟﺍ .ﻦﻳﺮﺧﺁ

ﺔﻳﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﳌﺍ

ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﻴﺟ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﺐﻌ ﹸﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ -

ﺎﻫﺪﺣﻭ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﺏﻮﻨﺟ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 13

ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ -

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺗﻭ ،ﻲﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺙﻮﻠﺘﻟﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ

ﻥﺎﻳﺮﳉﺍﻭ ،ﻙﺎﻤﺳﻷﺍ ﺪﻴﺻ ﻁﺮﻓﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ


7 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﹴﻑﺎﻛ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ - ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ 2 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﺮﻴﺻﺎﻋﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺭﺬﻨﻳ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻚﻠﺘﳝﻭ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﻳﻭ

ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻴﻔﺘﺴﻳ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﺍ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍﻭ

ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺎﻓ - ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺎﺑ ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ

.ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﹰﺍﺭﻻﻭﺩ 450 ﻮﻫ ﺎﻬﻴﻓ

ﺔﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻂﻄﺨﺗ ،ﻪﺴﻔﻧ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ 100 ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻ ﺔﻳﺪﻨﻟﻮﻬﻟﺍ

ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺪﻨﻟﻮﻫ ﻦﻃﺍﻮﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﺕﺃﺪﺑ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻡﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺘﻔﻟ ﺔﻨﺳ

ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﻎﻠﺒﻳﻭ - ﺍﺪﻨﻟﻮﻫ

ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﻒﻌﺿ 100 ﺎﻬﻴﻓ

ﻊﺿﻮﲤ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ - ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﻲﻓ

ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﻻﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺋﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ

ﺮﻣﺃ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﻷ

.ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﺭﻭﺪﻘﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻓ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

Guan and Hubacek :ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

(2008); Shalizi (2006); Xia and others

(2007); FAO (2007); Barbier and

Sathirathai (2004); Deltacommissie

(2008); Government of Bangladesh

.Karim and Mimura (2008) ;(2008)

ﻚﻠﺘﲤ ﺎﳑ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺔﻴﻨﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺘﲤ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻞﻀﻓﻷﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺃ

ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﻢﻫ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻋﻭ ﺔﺤﺻﻭ ﹰﺎﻤﻴﻠﻌﺗ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﺗﺍﺫ ﹰﺔﻧﻭﺮﻣ

ﺎﻤﻠﺜﻣ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﻗﺎﻔﺗ ﻥﺃ

ﻩﺎﻴﻤﻠﻟ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﺋﺍﺪﻟﺍ ﺝﺍﺮﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﻝﻮﺣ ﻑﺎﻔﺠﻠﻟ ﺔﺿﹼﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﻢﻴﻟﺎﻗﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺮﻘﺸﻏﺪﻣﻭ ﺎﻴﺴﻴﻧﻭﺪﻧﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻠﺜﻣﻭ ،ﲔﻜﺑ

ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺞﻴﻠﳋﺍ ﻞﺣﺎﺳﻭ ﺪﻧﻼﻳﺎﺗﻭ

ﻑﻭﺮﻐﻧﺎﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﺠﺷﺃ ﻊﻄﻗ ﰎ ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﺔﺣﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻣﺃ ﻝﺎﺍ ﺡﺎﺴﻓﻹ ﺔﻴﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍ

.ﺱﺪﻳﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺮﺗ ﻉﺭﺍﺰﻣﻭ

ﹰﺎﻌﻳﺮﺳ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﹸﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﹴﻑﺎﻛ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨ ﹼﻜ ﹸﳝ ﺎﲟ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ

ﺭﻭﺪﻘﲟ ﻲﻫ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ

ﺍﺪﻨﻟﻮﻫﻭ ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺒﻓ .ﺔﻴﻨﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﻻ ﹰﺎﺿﹼﺮﻌﺗ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻤﻫ

ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﺗﻭ .ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ

ﻒﻌﺿ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺎﻬﻧﺎﻜﺳ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻣﻭ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﻣ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﺮ ﹼﻜﺒﻣ ﺭﺍﺬﻧﺇ

ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺎﻫﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﺑ ﻥﺭﺎﻘﹸﺗ

ﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﺓﺪﻘﻌﻣ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﳌﺍ ،1 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻘﻳ

ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺓﺮﺜﻛ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ

ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻓﻮﺘﺘﺳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﺓﺭﺪﻗﻭ ،(ﺎﻬﺘﻔﻠﻜﺗﻭ)

ﻯﺪﻣﻭ ،(ﺮﻌﺳ ﻱﺄﺑﻭ) ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩﻭ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻞﺻﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﺪﳊﺍ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

Science ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻲﺛﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﺎﻫﺪﻌﺑ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ

ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﹰﺍﺪﻴﻘﻌﺗ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺗ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﳌﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .(Focus

ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ) ﻦﻣﺰﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﻋ ﻉﹼﺯﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻳﺎﻀﻘﻟ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻠﻟ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻞﻴﺟ ﻪﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﻳ

ﺾﻌﺑ) ﻦﻛﺎﻣﻷﺍﻭ (ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻝﺎﻴﺟﻷﺍ

ﻦﻛﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻔﻌﺿﻭ ﺔﺿﺮﻋ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﻷﺍ

ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻲﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﻯﺮـﺧﻷﺍ

ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺗ ﺎﻬﻧﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .(ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ

ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﺔﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺔﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﹰﺍﺪﻴﻘﻌﺗ

ﺕﺎﻣﺪﳋﺍﻭ ،ﻕﺯﺮﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﻛ ﻞﺒﺳﻭ ،ﺡﺍﻭﺭﻷﺍ :ﻥﺍﺪﻘﻓ

ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺨﻛ ﺔﻴﻗﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ

.ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ

ﺪﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟ ﺓﺩﺎــﻋ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺀﺍﺮﺒﺧ ﻰﻌﺳ

ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﻰﻠﺜﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ

ﺢﺿﻮﻳ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺿﺍﺮﺘﻓﺍ ﻩﺎﲡ ﺔﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ،3 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﻘﺑ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ

ﺎﻳﺎﻀﻘﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻴﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺨﻠﻟ

،ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﺋﺎﻔﺘﳌﺎﻓ) .ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﻉﹼﺯﻮﺘﻟﺍ

ﻊﺿﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻮﻫﻭ

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 16 ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﺗ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 25-20 ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﻞﻤﺤﺘﺘﺳ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ

ﻥﺃ ﻻﺇ .ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻗ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺎﻬﻠﻌﺠﺘﺳ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﻭﺮﺛ

ﺮﻔﺴﻴﺳ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻓ .ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ

ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ - ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻣﺩ ﻦﻋ

ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺓﻮﺠﻔﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺰﻴﺳ

.ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ

ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ

ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺘﻟ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ . ﹴﻑﺎﻛ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﻲﻓ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﺎﲡ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻢﻴﻤﺻ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﻞﳊﺍ ﻩﺪﺣﻮﻟ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﻌﻳﺮﺳ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﹸﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

،ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌ ﻲﻔﻜﺗ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﺑ

ﻦﻣ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ

ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .(2 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﺧﺃ

ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﻥﺎﻤﻀﻟ ﻲﻔﻜﺗ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﺑ ﹰﺎﻔﺼﻨﻣ

ﻡﺎﻴﻗ ﻦﻤﻀﻳ ﻻ ﻮﻫﻭ .ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﹼﺮﻌﺗ ﺪﺷﻷﺍﻭ

ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺪﻴﺟ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻔﺋﺎﻇﻮﺑ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺎﺑ ﺐﺒﺴﺘﻟﺍ ﻪﻧﺄﺷ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻒﻴﺜﻛ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ

ﻥﺄﺑ ﺩﺎﻘﺘﻋﻼﻟ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺪﺑ ﻻ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ

ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﻣ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺢﺋﺍﻮﻠﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺎﻓ :ﻱﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻞﺋﺎﻫ ﻥﺍﺪﻘﻔﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺬﲢ ﺎﻬﺘﻘﺒﺳ ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ

ﻢﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ - ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﻬﻧﺍﻭ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻓ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﺮﻴﻏ 28 .ﻞﻴﺒﻘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻦﻣ ﺀﻲﺷ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ

،ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﻠﺣﺮﳌﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺿﺍﻮﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

،ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ :ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺗﻭ ،ﻱﺮﻀﳊﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻥﺎﻜﺳﻹﺍﻭ

ﻱﺮﺠﻳ ﺎﻣ ﹰﺎﺒﻟﺎﻏ ﻥﺎﺘﻟﻮﻘﻣ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ .ﺔﻴﻔﻳﺮﻟﺍ

ﻩﺬﻫ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﻠﺣﺮﳌﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ :ﺎﻤﻬﻋﺎﻤﺳ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻼﻟﺔ ﹼﺤﻠﹸﳌﺍﺔﺟﺎﺤﻠﻟﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﺔﻟﻮﺒﻘﻣﺮﻴﻏ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃﻭ ،ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻔﻟﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ

ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻫﺎﻓﺮﺑ ﺔﻴﺤﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺓﺎﻋﺍﺮﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﹰﻰﻨﻏ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﺎﲟﺭ ﻝﺎﻴﺟﺃ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ

ﻰﻘﺒﺗ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻩﺭﺮﺒﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻪﻟ ﻖﻠﻗ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ

ﺡﺮﻃ ﺓﻮﻘﺑ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻫﻭ ﺔﻣﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﻘﻨﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻦﻋ ﻉﺎﻓﺪﻠﻟ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻬﺟﻭ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﺣﻮﻤﻃ

- ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻻﺍ

ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﺭﻭﺪﻘﻣ ﺮﻣﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻤﻬﻣ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻆﻫﺎﺑ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ

ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺘﻓ .ﺎﻫﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﺇ ﻲﻨﻌﻴﺳ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

:ﺭﺍﺮـﺿﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻝﻮﺒﻗﻭ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ

ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻓ


ﻡﺪﻋ ﻱﺃ) ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻮﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺃ

(ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﺔﻳﺄﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺎــﻋﺩ ﺎــﻣﺃ .ﺔـﺛﺭﺎـﻛ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻴﺳ

ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﻮﻠﺒﻘﻴﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﻲﺠﻳﺭﺪﺘﻟﺍ

ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻕﻮﻓ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ

ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻥﻮﺠﺘﻨﺘﺴﻳ ﻢﻫﻭ .ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ

ﺔﻴﻠﻛ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺾﻔﺧﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻱﺬـﻟﺍ -

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻱﺃ)

ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ - (ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻥﻮﻫﻮﻨﻳ ﻢﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ 30 .ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ 3 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻹ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ

ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻲﻫ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺏﺮﻗ

ﰋﺍﻮﻨﻟﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻮﻫ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ

ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﻻ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺛﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ

ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺭﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺽﺭﻷﺍ

ﻑﺪﻫ ﻰﻟﺇ C0 2e ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﺓﻭﺭﺬﻟ ﻝﺎﻋ ﻑﺪﻫ ﻦﻣ

ﲔﻣﺄﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ

ﺐﻏﺮﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺔﻫﺎﻓﺮﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ - ﻲﺧﺎﻨﻣ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻪﺑ ﺔﻴﺤﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﺣﻮﻳﻭ .ﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ

Hof, den Elzen and van Vuuren ﻪﺑ ﻡﺎﻗ

ﺐﺟﻮﲟ ﺔﻔﻴﻔﻃ ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻥﺄﺑ

ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺎﺿﺍﺮﺘﻓﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺓﺪﺣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗﻭ ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

800

Hof, den Elzen, and van Vuuren :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

.2008

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 8

ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺮﻣ ﻊﻣ ﻪﺛﻭﺪﺣ ﺽﺮﺘﻔﻳﻭ ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ

ﻲﻓ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﹰﺎﻤﺴﺣ ﻊﻀﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ

ﺔﻌﺿﺍﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺬﺒﺤﻳ ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ ،ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ

ﻢﺋﺎﺸﺘﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﺲﻜﻌﻟﺍﻭ .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺀﺍﺮﺒﺧ ﻞﺻﺍﻮﻳ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ .(ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺎﺑ

ﹰﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻐﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﹰﺎﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﺍﻭ

.ﺔﺌﺷﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻪﺟﻭﺃ ﺾﻌﺑ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﻗﺎﻓ ،ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ 2.5 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ

ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺎﺑ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻮﻟﻭ) ﻪﻔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﺎﻬﻌﻴﻤﺟ ﺺﻠﺨﺗﻭ 29 .(ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ

ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺤﺿﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍ

ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﺧ ﺕﺎﻴﻨﺤﻨﳌ ﱡﻲﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ ﹸﻦﺨﺜﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﻯﺭﺫ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺐﺴﺣ

ﺓﻭﺭﺫ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺎﻘﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﻚﻟﺬﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻨﻛﻭ .C02e ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 750 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ

ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﺧ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 550

ﺐﺴﺣ (ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 0.3) ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ

ﻥﺄﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﺗ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ .Nordhaus ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﻢﻴﻗ ﹴ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﻲﻃﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ

ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

.ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻲﻫ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 550

ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ،Stern ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﻢﻴ ﹺﻗ ﺐﺴﺣﻭ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 550

ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 0.5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻼﻟ

.ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 750 ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺎﺑ

ﺓﻭﺭﺬﺑ ﻑﺪﻫ ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﻻ ﺔﻳﻮﻘﻟﺍ ﻊﻓﺍﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ

ﺓﻭﺭﺫ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﺑ ﹰﺎﺳﺎﻴﻗ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﺧ :ﺕﻼﺿﺎﻔﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺎﺑ

C0 2e ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ

(%) ﻼﻬﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟ ﻲﻓﺎﺻ ﺎﻔﺨﻧ

4

Stern ﺐﺴﺣ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ

Nordhaus ﺐﺴﺣ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ

ﻞﺜﻣﻷ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ 3

750 700 650 600 550

(ﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺰﺟ) CO2e ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﻮﺘﺴﻣ

2

1

0

500

.3 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ،Hof, den Elzen, and van Vuuren 2008 ﻦﻣ ﻑﹼﺮﺼﺘﺑ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﻜﺘﺳ ﺎﲟ ﹰﺎﺳﺎﻴﻗ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﺨﻠﻟ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﳌﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻨﺤﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﺒﺗ ﹼ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﺐﺴﺣ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍﻭ “Stern” ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﺐﺴﺣ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﺸﻳ .C02e ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﺓﻭﺭﺫ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﳌﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﺔﹼﻟﺍﺪ ﹶﻛﻭ ،ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ

ﻰﻠﺜﹸﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻄﻌﳌﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﲔﺒﺗﻭ ﹼ .ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺺﻧ ﺎﻬﺣﺮﺸﻳ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ﺝﺫﻮﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺪﶈﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﻰﻟﺇ “Nordhaus”

ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﺧ ﻞﻠﻘﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺰﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍ ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﻊﺿﻭ ﻞﻜﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻞﺻﺎﺣ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ

“ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ” ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ 3 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

Hof, den Elzen, and van Vuuren ﻡﺎﻗ

ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻯﺪﻣ ﺺﺤﻔﺑ

ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﺿﺍﺮﺘﻓﻻ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣﻭ ،ﻲﻨﻣﺰﻟﺍ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﺔﻔﻋﺎﻀﳌ ﺐﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ

ﺓﺪﺋﺎﺳ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗﻭ ،(ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ

.ﻢﺴﳊﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻠﻤﺘﶈﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﻖﻴﺒﻄﺘﺑ ﺍﻮﻣﺎﻗ ،ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻲﻓﻭ

ﻊﻣ (FAIR) ﻢﻬﺑ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻜﺘﳌﺍ ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻢﹶﻴ ﹺﻗ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻊﻳﻮﻨﺗ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﻮﺸﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺍ ﻖﻓﻭ ﺝﺫﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺎﻬﻣﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻴﺑﺩﻷﺍ

Nicholas Stern :ﻥﺍﺭﻮﻬﺸﻣ ﻥﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻴﺒﺧ

،ﺔﺣﻮﻤﻄﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﻜﺒﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻮﻋﺪﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ

ﺞﻬﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺆﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ William Nordhaus ﻭ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺓﺪﺣ ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻲﺠﻳﺭﺪﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﻢﻬﺟﺫﻮﳕ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ،ﺏﺮﻐﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ

ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﻟ ﹰﺎﻌﺒﺗ ﹰﺎﻣﺎﲤ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻰﻠﺜﻣ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺃ

ﻥﻮﻌﻓﺍﺪﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ) .ﺔﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﳌﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ ﻪﻨﻋ

.(ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ) "Stern ﺎﻫﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻢﻴﻗ"

ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺥﺎﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﻦﻤﻀﺘﺗ

ﻢﺴﺣ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻊﻣ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻃ ﻲﻨﻣﺯ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻊﻣ

ﺮﻔﺴﺗ (ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗﻭ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﻦﻣ ﻰﻠﺜﻣ ﺓﻭﺭﺫ ﻦﻋ

ﺎﻣﺃ .ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 540 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ (CO2e) ﻲﺘﻟﺍ) "Nordhaus ﺎﻫﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻢﻴﻗ"

ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﺃﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺴﺣ ﺽﺮﺘﻔﺗ

ﻲﻬﻓ (ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﻢﺴﺣ ﺮﻌﺳﻭ ﺮﺼﻗﺃ ﻲﻨﻣﺯ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻊﻣ

ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 750 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﻰﻠﺜﻣ ﺓﻭﺭﺫ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ

ﺭﺍﺮﺿﺃ ﺔﻟﺍﺩ ﻦﻤﻀﺘﺗ ﲔﺘﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺎﺘﻠﻛ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ

.ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﹰﺎﻴﻨﻤﺿ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﲔﺒﻳﻭ ﹼ

ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 800-500 ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻦﻤﺿ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺎﻫﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻘﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ

ﲔﺑ ﻕﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻫﻭ) Nordhaus ﻭ Stern ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ

ﺝﺫﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺮﺿﺎﳊﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ

ﺎﻬﺑ ﻢﻌﻨﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﺿﺎﳊﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻗﻭ

ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣﻭ .(ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ


9 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻹ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ 1 ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ

ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻗ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ

ﻉﻮﻤ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ

2100 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺒﺴﻧ)

(ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

0.5

1.2

0.9

0.9

0.9

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

0.3

0.4

0.7

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.5

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ

2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

(ﺕﺍﺭﻻﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ)

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

137

600

168

675

395

384

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

310

900

375

257

1,215

611

375

ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ

ﺔﻠﻣﺎﻜﺘﳌﺍ

ﻂﻘﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

MESSAGE

IEA ETP

REMIND

MiniCAM

ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ

PAGE

"ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ" FAIR

DICE

McKinsey

ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ

ﻂﻴﺳﻮﻟﺍ

MESSAGE: IIASA 2009; IEA ETP: IEA 2008c; REMIND: Knopf and others, forthcoming; :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

MiniCAM: Edmonds and others 2008 and personal communications; PAGE: Hope 2009 and personal

communications; FAIR: Hof, den Elzen, and van Vuuren 2008; DICE: Nordhaus 2008 (estimated from

table 5.3 and figure 5.3); McKinsey: McKinsey Global Institute 2009 and personal communications

ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ IEA ETP .ﺀﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﺎﻬﺿﺮﻌﺘﺳﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ ,REMIND DICE, FAIR, MESSAGE, MiniCAM, PAGE :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﻲﻫ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ .ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻱﺰﻨﻛﺎﻣ ﺪﻬﻌﳌ ﺓﺪﺋﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﻟﺍ ﻮﻬﻓ McKinsey ﺎﻣﺃ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻛﻮﻟﺍ ﻪﺘﻌﺿﻭ

،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 450 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

Schaeffer) 2100 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻹ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 50-40 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺔﺻﺮﻓ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻪﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ

ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻤﻀﺘﻳ and others 2008a; Hare and Meinshausen 2006). MiniCAM

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻎﻠﺒﺘﻓ FAIR ﺝﺫﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻧ ﺎﻣﺃ .ﻂﻘﻓ ﻱﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻦ ﹼﻤﻀﺘﺗﻭ .ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻑﹼﺮﻌﺗ .(Hof, den Elzen, and van Vuuren 2008 ﻲﻓ 3 ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻢﻴﹺﻗ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺗ

.2009 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻨﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ 0.7 ﻭ 0.3 ﲔﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺡﻭﺍﺮﺘﺗﻭ ،ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

.(1 ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ

ﺎﻣ ﺀﻮﺿ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻪﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻭﺃ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻪﻳﺩﺎﻔﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ

.(ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻧﻷ)

ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﻴﺋﺰﺟ ﻢﺘﻴﺳ ﻪﻧﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﺜﻣ) ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﻝﻼﺧ

ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ (ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﺎﺻ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺈﻓ

ﺪﻴﻔﺗﻭ .ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﻥﺄﺑ ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ McKinsey ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ

ﺯﻭﺎﺠﺘﻳ ﻻ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻲﻓﺎﺻ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 225

ﺩﺪﺴﺗ ﺓﺩﺪﶈﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ ،2030

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ ،ﻚﻟﺫ ﻊﻣﻭ .ﹰﺎﻴﺗﺍﺫ ﺎﻬﻔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ

ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ ﻪﻧﻷ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

.ﺔﻴ ﹼﻘﺒﺘﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ،ﺔﻔﻴﻔﻃ

،ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﺓﺭﺎﺒﻌﺑﻭ .(3 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ

ﻞﻗﺃ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻞﺤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺎﻬﻨﻤﻀﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻜﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺒﻟ ﻲﻋﺍﺪﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﺣﻮﻤﻃ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻴﳋﺍ

ﻥﻷ ﹰﺎﻴﺋﺰﺟ ؟ﺍﺫﺎﳌ .ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻮﻟﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺽﹼﻮﻌﺗ

ﻰﻠﻋﻷﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺪﺷ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ

ﻕﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ ﹰﺎﻴﺋﺰﺟﻭ 31 .ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺔﺣﻮﻤﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﻹﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻲﻘﻴﻘﳊﺍ

ﺮﻬﻈﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻤﻜﻳ ﺔﻌﺿﺍﻮﺘﳌﺍﻭ

ﺔﻴﺠﻳﺭﺪﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺎﻋﺩ ﻡﻮﻘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻲﻫﻭ ،ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

.ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻤﺴﺤﺑ

ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺓﺮﺜﻛ

ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺔﻨﻜﻤﳌﺍ

ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮــﺟﻹﺍ ﺭﺮﺒﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻴﺛﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ

ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﻪﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺃﺮﺟ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﻜﺒﳌﺍ

ﻚﻟﺫ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻹ ﲔﻣﺄﺗ ﻡﻮﺳﺭ ﺔﺑﺎﺜﲟ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﻎﻠﺒﳌﺍ

ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﹰﺎﻣﺍﺰﺣ ﺀﺎﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ ﻩﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻦﻤﺿ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﺈﻓ 32 .ﺔﻣﻼﺳﻭ ﹰﺎﻨﻣﺃ

ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﹰﻻﻮﺒﻘﻣ ﹰﺎﻔﻗﻮﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ "ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ"

ﻲﻓ 3 ﻖﻔﻨﻳ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺎﻓ :ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺔﻬﺟﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ

33 .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ

"ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ" ﺔﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻰﻄﺨﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﺑﻮﻠﻄﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻣ ﺔﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻮﻫ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍﻭ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ

ﺓﺭﻮﺗﺎﻓ ،ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﻚﻟﺬﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ

ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺡﻭﺍﺮﺘﺗ ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﺔﺣﺩﺎﻓ

260 ﲔﺑ ﺎﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 1.2 ﻭ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ

ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﻂﻴﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻱﺃ ،(1 ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ) 2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ

ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 0.2 ﺍﺬﻫ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳﻭ .ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 375

ﻡﺎﻌﻠﻟ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ

ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 3 ﻭﺃ ،2030

ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﻳ ،ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﺓﺭﺎﺒﻌﺑﻭ .ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ

ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 3ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ

ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍﻥﺄﺑﻝﻮﻘﻟﺍﺭﺮﻜﻧ 34 .ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ

.ﺔﺣﺩﺎﻓﺖﺴﻴﻟﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ

ﺩﺍﺩﺰ ـﺗ ؟ﻞﻳﻮﻄﻟﺍ ﺪــﻣﻷﺍ ﻦـﻋ ﺍﺫﺎــﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﻛﺍﻮﻣ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻦﻣﺰﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺮـﻣ ﻊﻣ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ - ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ

ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﻚﻟﺬﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧﻭ .ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﻴﺳ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﺎﺻ ﻞﻈﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﻰﻧﺩﺃ 2100 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ

ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 1 ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ


ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .(5 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ) 2100

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻀﻏ ﻲﻔﻓ :ﺓﺭﺎﺒﺟﻭ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻓ ﹰﺍﺩﻮﻬﺟ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺸﻌﻟﺍ

ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ - ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﲟ - ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻮﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻦﻫﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ

ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ :ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ - ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻈﻫﺎﺑ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺗ

،ﻢﻬﺸﻴﻋ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﺃﻭ ،ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺪﻌﺘﺴﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇﻭ ﺀﺎﻨﺑﻭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃﻭ ،ﻥﻮﻠﻛﺄﻳ ﺎﻣﻭ

36 .ﺔﻳﺮﻀﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻢﻬﺘﻤﻈﻧﺃ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻠﺛﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺿﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﹰﺍﺫﺇ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻫ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺎﻬﺿﺮﻌﻳ

ﺔﻴﻨﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ

ﻭﺃ) ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ

ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ .ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،(ﹰﺎﻴﳌﺎﻋ

ﻲﻓ ﻭﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﻞﺋﺎﻫ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ ﻥﻷ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ .ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣﻭ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﹰﺎﻌﻣ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ .ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﹼﺮﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺎﻔﻌﺿ ﺪﺷﻷﺍ ﻢﻫ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ :ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ

.ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ

ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ - ﻥﻵﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺪﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﺩﺪﺤﻴﺳ ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﻋ ﻥﺃ

ﻥﻮﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻱﺪﺒﹸﻳ

ﻦﻋ ﺮﺧﺄﺘﺗ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺘﻟﺎﻓ .(6 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ) ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻥﺃ ﻱﺃ :ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﺓﺪﳌ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻰﻘﺒﻳ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﻥﺈﻓ ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ ،ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻭﺮـﻗ ﻭﺃ

ﻲﻓ ﺮﺛﺆﻳ ﻲﻜﻟ ﹰﻼﻳﻮﻃ ﹰﺎﻨﻣﺯ ﻕﺮﻐﺘﺴﻳ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻥﺃ ﻱﺃ :ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﺧﺄﺘﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺕﺎﺒﺛ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻥﻭﺮﻗ ﺔﻌﻀﺑ ﺓﺪﳌ ﺩﺎـﻳﺩﺯﻻﺍ ﻞﺻﺍﻮﺗ

ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺮﺧﺄﺘﺗ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ .ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ

ﻊ ﹼﺳﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻱﺃ :ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻋ

ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺕﺎﻄﻴﶈﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺐﺒﺴﺑ

ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻨﺳ 1000 ﻡﻭﺪﻳ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺪﻴﻠﳉﺍ ﻥﺎﺑﻭﺫ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ

37 .ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻑﻻﺁ ﺓﺪﻋ ﺮﻤﺘﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺫﺇ ﺪﲢ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﻜﻴﻣﺎﻨﻳﺩ

ﻪﻟﺍﺪﺒﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺩﻮﻬﺠﺑ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﺏﺮ ﹸﻗ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 450 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ) ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ

ﺐ ﹼﻠﻄﺘﻳ (C0 2e ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﹰﺍﺭﻮﻓ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﺀﺪﺑ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳﻭ .ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 1.5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﺲﻤﺧ ﻪﺗﺪﻣ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺳ

ﺔﻃﺎﺴﺒﺑ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻣ ﻝﻮﻃﺃ ﺓﺪﻣ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﻞﻗﺃ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ

ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺓﺩﻮﺟﻮﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﻻﺇ ﻥﻭﺮﻈﻨﻳ ﻻ ﺾﻌﺒﻟﺎﻓ .ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺴﺑ

ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﻴﺒﻨﺟﻷﺍ ﺔﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻣ

ﻞﻤﺸﻳ ﻻ ﺮﺧﻵﺍ ﺾﻌﺒﻟﺍﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ

ﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﻟﺍﻭ .ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻯﻮﺳ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﻞﻤﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻈﻨﻠﻟ ﻰﻌﺴﻳ

ﻲﻓ ﺕﺭﺪﺻ ﺔﺳﺍﺭﺩ ﻲﺣﻮﺗ .(6 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ)

ﻝﻭﺎﲢ ﻲﻫﻭ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﻵﺍ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺎﻳﺎﻀﻘﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺘﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 80 ﻦﻣ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ

35 .ﻂﻘﻓ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﻝﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺐﻳﺮﻗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

،ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻥﻵﺍ ﻡﺰﻠﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﰎ ﺍﺫﺇ

ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ

ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻣ

ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ،ﺔﺣﺩﺎﻓ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮــﳊﺍ ﺔــﺟﺭﺩ ﻕﻮـﻓ

ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺒﻓ .ﺡﻮﻤﻄﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﹰﺎﻓﺪﻫ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،2050 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻦﻋ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 50 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﺮﻔﺼﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﻭﺃ ﹰﺍﺮﻔﺻﻭ 1990

2100

(ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ) ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﻮﻨﺴﻟ ﻮﻤ

160

2090

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 10

ﺀﺎﻘﺑ :ﺓﺪﻳﺪﻋ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺎﻨﺛﺍ ﻥﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ؟ﻡﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻖﻳﺮﻄﻟﺍ ﻭﺪﺒﻳ ﻒﻴﻛ 5 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﺀﻱﺮﳉﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻲﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﻷﺍ

2080

2070

2060

2050

ﺔﻨﺴﻟ

2040

2030

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ ﺮﻤﺘﺳ

(~5°C) ﻪﻟﺎﺣ

2°C ﻰﻟ ﺎﺴﳌ

Clarke and others forthcoming .ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ ﻯﺪﺘﻨﻣ ﺎﻬﺣﺎﺗﺃ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻧ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ (GTEM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, MINICAM) ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﻋ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻱﻮﻠﻌﻟﺍ ﻂﻳﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﲔﺒﻳ ﹼ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﲔﺒﻳ ﹼ ﻮﻬﻓ ﻲﻠﻔﺴﻟﺍ ﻂﻳﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﺎﻣﺃ .ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻲﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﻷﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑ ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳ ﺐﺟﻮﲟ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .(ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻥﻭﺩ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺘﻟ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 50 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺔﺻﺮﻓ) ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 450

ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺒﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ) ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﻴﺒﻠﺳ .ﲔﺟﻭﺮﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃﻭ ﻥﺎﺜﻴﳌﺍ ﺯﺎﻏﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗﻭ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﻣﺍ ﻝﺪﻌﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻨﻌﺗ (ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻬﻨﻟﺍ

ﺢﻄﺳ ﺖﲢ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍﻭ ،ﺎﻬﻗﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﺪﻨﻋﻭ ﻱﻮﻴﳊﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ :ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ) ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﺐﺘﻜﻣ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻩﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻜﺘﳌﺍ ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ ﻲﻫ GTEM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, MINICAM .(ﺽﺭﻷﺍ

،ﺔﻴﻘﻴﺒﻄﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺪﻬﻌﳌﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻳﺪﻨﻟﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﻫﻭ ،ﻲﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

.ﺉﺩﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﻂﻴﶈﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺸﻟ ﻲﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﺘﺍﻭ

2020

2010

2000

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

–20

–40


11 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻ ﺐﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣﻭ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ :ﺮ ﹼﻤﻌ ﹸﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﺛﺃ 6 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ

ﺔﻣﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻨﻣﺰﻟ ﺪﳌ

ﻮﺘﻟ ﻮﻠﺒﻟ

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧ

:ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ

ﺔﻨﺳ 100 ﻰﻟ 0

:ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ

ﺔﻨﺳ 300 ﻰﻟ 100

:ﺮﳊ ﺔﺟ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ

ﺮﻗ ﺔﻌﻀﺑ

ﺮﺤﺒﻟ ﺎﻴﻣ ﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻔﺗ

:ﻮﻠﺜﻟ ﺎﺑ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ

ﻮﻨﺴﻟ ﻻ ﺪﻋ

ﺮﺤﺒﻟ ﺎﻴﻣ ﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻔﺗ

:ﺮﳊ ﻊﺳﻮﺘﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ

ﻮﻨﺴﻟ ﻻ ﻰﻟ ﺮﻗ

1000

ﺔﻨﺳ

ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﻮﻨﺴﻟ ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ

ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺰ ﻛﺮﺗ

ﺮﳊ ﺔﺟ

ﺮﺤﺒﻟ ﺎﻴﻣ ﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺎﻔﺗ

100

ﺔﻨﺳ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

.IPCC 2001ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻓ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

.ﺡﺎﻀﻳﻹﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﻣ ﺔﺣﻮﻟ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻜﻟﺍ ؛ﺔﻄ ﹼﻤﻨ ﹸﻣ ﻡﺎﻗﺭﺃ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺮ ﹼﻓﻮﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻛﺄﺘﻠﻟ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺔﻋﺮﺳﻭ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺐﻳﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻕﺍﻮـﺳﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﲔﺑ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﻎﻠﺒﻣ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ

43 .ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 700 ﻭ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 100

:ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ ﺲﲤ ﺎﻤﻛ

،ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇﻭ ،ﺀﺎﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ

ﺮﺛﺆﺗ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﻋ ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗﻭ ،ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﻢﻴﻣﺎﺼﺗﻭ

،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ - ﻩﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﻭﺪﺑ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣ ﺔﻴﻀﻗ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ

.ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﻙﻮﻠﺳ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ

ﻖﻠﻗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ .ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﻷﺍ

ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺗ ﻢﻟ ،ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻫﺎﻤﳉﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺳ ﺮﺸﻋ ﺓﺪﳌ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺘﻟﺍ :ﻪﻨﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻞﻌﺠﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺭﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺯﻭﺎﲡ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻞﻴﺤﺘﺴﳌﺍ

38 .ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺄﺑ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ

ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺤﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﺔﻴﻨﺑﻷﺍ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﺋﺎﻘﻟﺍ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻢﻴﻣﺎﺼﺗ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻭﺃ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺖﻴﻗﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻣﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

ﺓﺮ ﹼﻤﻌ ﹸﻣ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻲﻫﻭ 39 .ﻱﻭﺎﺴﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻋﺯﻮﻣ ﺖﺴﻴﻟﻭ

ﻊﻧﺎﺼﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻨﺳ 40 ﻭ ﺔﻨﺳ 15 ﲔﺑ -

ﺔﻨﺳ 75-40 ﻭ ،ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻄﺤﻣﻭ

ﺔﻳﺪﻳﺪﳊﺍ ﻚﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻁﻮﻄﺧﻭ ﻕﺮﻄﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷﻭ

- ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﻞﻜﺷﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﻰﻄﺨﺘﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﺛﺃ ﺎﻬﻟ - ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻛﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﺑ

ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻦﻣﺰﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻧﺮﻗ

ﻝﺎﳌﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﺐﺒﺴﺘﺗ ﺓﺮ ﹼﻤﻌﹸﳌﺍ

ﻥﺪﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ) ﺎﻬﻟ ﺐﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺍﺰﻴﻬﲡﻭ ،ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ

ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﺍ ﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍﻭ

ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺰﺠﺘﺤﻳ ﺎﲟ (ﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺪﻣﺇ ﻁﻮﻄﳋ

ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻁﺎﳕﺃﻭ ﺓﺎﻴﺣ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﺃ ﻲﻓ

.ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻗ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻱﺩﺎﳌﺍ ﻝﺎﳌﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ

ﺢﺟﺭﻷﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻣ

ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻯﻭﺪﺟ ﻲﻓ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺮﺛﺆﻳ ﻪﻧﺃ

ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ - ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺎﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻑﺪﻫ

ﻲﻟﺎﻋ ﻝﺎﻤﺳﺃﺭ ﺪﻴﺻﺭ ﻦﻣ ﻝﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻔﻓ .ﺮﻴﺒﻛ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

40 .ﺖﻴﻗﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﻱﻭﺎﺴﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻋﺯﻮﻣ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ

ﻲﻧﺎﺒﳌﺍ ﺪﻴﺻﺭ ﲔﺼﻟﺍ ﻒﻋﺎﻀﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ

ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .2015 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍﻭ 2000 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺎﻬﻳﺪﻟ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﺣﺮﺘﻘﳌﺍ ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻧﺎﺼﳌﺍ

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ

ﻥﺃ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﻟ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﻋ ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺮﺸﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺲﻤﳋﺍ

ﺎﻫﺭﺪﺼﺘﺳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻦﻋ ﺓﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺘﺳ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻴﺣ ﻲﻓ

ﻱﺮﺠﳊﺍ ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ ﺖﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷﺍ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ 41 .ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺮﺼﻋ ﺔﻳﺍﺪﺑ ﺬﻨﻣ

ﻱﺭﺎﳉﺍ ﻊﻧﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺾﻌﺑ ﻯﻮﺳ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﹰﺎﻘﺣﻻ

ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗﻭ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺎﻫﺅﺎﻨﺑ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺖﺤﺒﺻﺃ ﻰﺘﻣﻭ ﺍﺫﺇ) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍﻭ 4 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ :ﹰﺎﻳﺭﺎﲡ ﺓﺮﻓﻮﺘﻣ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ

ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻴﺣ ﺀﺎﻬﺘﻧﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﻲﻠﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .(7

ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺖﻋﺪﺘﺳﺍ ﺍﺫﺇ - ﺓﺪﻴﻔﳌﺍ

.ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻆﻫﺎﺑ - ﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ

ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻮﻫ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ

ﻲﻓﻭ (R&D) ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ

ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗﻭ ﺮﺸﻧ

ﺎﻬﻟﻮﺻﻭ ﻕﺮﻐﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻥﺄﺑ

42 .ﺔﻨﺳ 50 ﻖﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻ ﻥﻵﺍ ﺔﺟﺎﺣ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫﻭ


ﻦﻳﺮﺧﻵﺍ ﻝﻮﺧﺩﻦﻣﺪﺑﻻ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﹰﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﻲﻓ

ﺐﺴﺣ ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ .ﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻲﳌﺎﻋ ﻑﺪﻫ

- ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﺔﻛﺭﺎﺸﻣ ﻡﺪﻋ ،ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﺣﺃ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 20ﺞﺘﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﻮﺗﻮﻴﻛ ﻝﻮﻛﻮﺗﻭﺮﺑ ﻲﻓ - ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻲﻠﺻﻷﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ

46 .ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 60 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗ ﻥﺍﺭﺮﺒﻳ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍ

ﻦﻳﺃﻭ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻝﻮﳝ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺑ ﻞﺼﻔﺗ

ﺔﻣﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻢﺘﺗ ﻦﻟ ،ﻚﻟﺫ ﻑﻼﺨﺑﻭ .ﺙﺪﲢ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ ﻦﻣ

،ﻪﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 70-65)

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 70-45 ﻱﺃ

ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ 47 ،(2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺎﻧﺮﻈﻧ ﺍﺫﺇﻭ .ﺩﺪﶈﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻲﻓ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﻑﹼﺮﻄﺘﳌﺍ ﻊﺿﻮﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷ ﻡﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺟﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﻴﺳ

ﺮﻔﺴﻳﻭ 2020 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻦﻋ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ

ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻎﻠﺒﺘﺳﻭ 48 .ﻒﻌﻀﻟﺍ

ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ 49 ،ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 25-4 ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺚﻴﺣ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻡﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ

ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﻥﺃ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﻟ ﺔﻌﻔﺗﺮﻣ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻋ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺤﺿﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ

ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﳊﺎﺑ ﺔﻣﺰﺘﻠﳌﺍ

ﺔﻔﺼﺑﻭ 50 .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮ ﹼﻜﺒﻣ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﹰﺍﺪـﺟ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰـﻟﺇ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﺔﻣﺎﻋ

ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟ ﺀﺍﺩﻷﺍ ﺓﺪﻴﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ

ﺕﺍﺮﺷﺆﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﻼﻳﻮﲢ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﺎﳑ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﻗ ﰋﺍﻮﻧ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺗ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ

.ﺎﻤﺜﻴﺣﻭ ﺎﻤﻠﻛ ﻥﺎﺿﺍﺮﺘﻓﻻﺍ ﻪﻴﻨﻌﻳ

ﺪﺷﻷﺍ ﻢﻫ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣﻭ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﺤﺘﻟ

ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻘﺑﺎﺳ ﺔﻌﺋﺎﺸﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ .ﹰﺍﺮﻘﻓ

.ﹰﺍﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺢﺒﺼﺗ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ

ﻝﻭﺃﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻈﻨﻨﻠﻓ

ﻂﻴﶈﺍ ﺏﻮﻨﺟ ﻲﻓ ﻪﻠﻴﺠﺴﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ ﺭﺎﺼﻋﺇ

51 .2004 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻞﻳﺯﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﺏﺮﺿ ﻲﺴﻠﻃﻷﺍ

ﻦﻣ - ﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ

ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮ ﹼﻜﺒﳌﺍ ﺭﺍﺬـﻧﻹﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ :ﻝﻼﺧ

ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺪﺻﺭﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﲔﻧﺍﻮﻗ ﺕﺎﻧﻭﺪﻣ ﺫﺎﻔﻧﺇﻭ ﻢﻴﻋﺪﺗﻭ ،ﹰﺎﻨﻣﺃ

ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻊﻣ ﺐﻨﺟ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﺒﻨﺟ ،ﺀﺎﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺣﺎﺴﳌﺍ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺢﺒﺼﻳ - ﻯﺮﺧﺃ

ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﳌﺍ

ﻞﹸﺒ ﹸﺳﻭ ﺔﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹼﺪﲢ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﻕﺯﺮﹼﻟﺍ

ﺰﻳﺰﻌﺗ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰـﻟﺇ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ - ﻲﻠﶈﺍ

ﻲﻟﻭﺩ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﺑ ﻪﺗﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﺕﺮﺟ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

.ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﺓﺮﻃﺎﺸﻣﻭ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 12

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻢـﻟﻭ .ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﳌﺍ ﺓﺮ ﹼﻓﻮﺘﳌﺍ

ﺎﻣ ﺮﻴﻓﻮﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻔﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻻ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺎﻬﻔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺩﺪﺴﻳ

ﻥﻮﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻲﻗﻼﻳﻭ .ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ

ﻚﻟﺫ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻊﻣ ،ﻢﻬﻠﻴﺻﺎﺤﻣ ﻱﺭ ﻁﺮﻓ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺣ

ﺚﻴﺣ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﺩﺍﺪﻣﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺰﻠﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻧﺃ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺮﻤﺘﺴﻳﻭ .ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﳉﺎﻌﻣﻭ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷ ﺔﺿﺮﻌﻣ

44 .ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﺘﻳ ﺎﲟ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﻣﻭ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺃﻭ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ

ﹰﺎﻘﺑﺎﺳ ﻯﺮﺟ ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﺀﻲﻄﺑﻭ ﺐﻌﺻ ﺮﻣﺃ

.(8 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ)

ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ - ﹰﺎﻌﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻭ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﺿ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﳉﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﻀـﻟﺍ ﻦـﻣﻭ 45 .ﻱﺭﺍﺮـــﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ

ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷﻭ

.ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﺿﺮﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺎﻔﻌﺿ ﺪﺷﻷﺍ ﻢﻫ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻋﺯﻮﻣﻭ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﻹ

ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺺـﺧﺭ ﻒﻗﻮﺘﻳ .ﻒﺼﻨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺄﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺪﻨﻌﻓ .ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻔﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﻳ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞ ﹼﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ

ﻮﻌﺿﺍﻭ ﺽﺮﺘﻔﻳ ،ﹰﺎﻔﻧﺁ ﺎﻬﺘﺸﻗﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﲤ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻥﺃ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ

ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻤﻠﻛﻭ ﺎﻤﻨﻳﺃ ﺙﺪﲢ ﻱﺭﺍﺮـﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

ﻲﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻨﻌﺗ ﺎﻤﻨﻳﺃ ﺓﺭﺎﺒﻌﻓ .ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺺﺧﺭﻷﺍ

ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟ

ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﳋﺍ

ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻭﺃ ﺪﻠﺑ ﻱﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﺗ ﺎﻤﻠﻛ ﺓﺭﺎﺒﻋﻭ .ﺔﺻﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻪﻴﻓ ﺄﺸﻨﺗ

ﺕﺍﺪﻌﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻮﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺖﻴﻗﻮﺗ

ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻣ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺰﻴﻬﺠﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﻔﺗﻭ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻴﻓ ﻦﻤﻴﻬﺗ

ﻥﺃ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﻞﺋﺍﺪﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﻌﻧﺎﳌﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻆﻫﺎﺑ ﹰﺎﻘﺣﻻ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ - ﺎﻤﻠﻛﻭ ﺎﻤﻨﻳﺃ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﻗ ﻖﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﺀﺎﺨﺗﺭﺍ

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ

ﻥﺃ - ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻋ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ

.ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﹰﺎﺒﺳﺎﻜﻣ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻫ ﺕﻻﻮﻟﺪﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﺩﻮﻬﺟﻲﻓﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍﺔﻛﺭﺎﺸﳌﺍ

ﻭﺃ ﺪﻠﺑ ﻊﻨﺘﻣﺍ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ .ﻥﻮﻠﻠﶈﺍ ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻊﻤﺠﹸﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ -

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ


13 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﻦﻣ - ﻥﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ 4 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻲﻓ ﺎﲟ) ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﻜﻟ

ﻥﺎﻣﺃ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ

ﺮﺟﺄﺑ ﻡﻮﻳ 100 ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ (ﻯﺮﺧﺃ

ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍ ﻢﺳﻮﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻮﺟﻷﺎﺑ ﻂﺒﺗﺮﻣ

ﻥﺎﻤﻀﻟﺍ ﺮﺼﻨﻋ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﻲﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﻦﻳﺬﻠﻟ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻦ ﹼﻣﺆﻳ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ ﻦﻜﺗ ﻢﻟ ﺍﺫﺇﻭ .ﺎﻬﻧﻮﺟﺎﺘﺤﻳ

ﻞﻣﺎﻜﺑ ﹰﺎﻣﻮﻳ 40 ﺭﻮﺟﺃ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﻠﻟ ﻖﺤﻳ ،ﺔﻨﻜﳑ

.ﺭﻮﺟﻷﺍ ﻒﺼﻨﺑ ﹰﺎﻣﻮﻳ 60 ﻚﻟﺫ ﺪﻌﺑﻭ ﺭﻮﺟﻷﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑ

.ﺱﻭﺭﺪﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺒﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﺗ ﺎﻫﺍﻮﺳﻭ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺮﺳ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺔﻋﺮﺳ

ﻊﻣ ،ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺹﺎﺨﺷﻷﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﺪﻋﺍﻮﻗ

ﲔﺟﺎﺘﶈﺍ ﻭﺃ ﲔﻨﻣﺰﳌﺍ ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ - ﲔﺟﺎﺘﶈﺍ

ﻞﺒﻗ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻊﻣ - ﲔﺘﻗﺆﳌﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻞﻳﻮﻃ ﺖﻗﻮﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺼﻟﺍ ﺙﻭﺪﺣ

ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﹰﺎﻘﺒﺴﻣ

ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺎﺑ "ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺀﺪﺒﻟ ﺓﺰﻫﺎﳉﺍ"

ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﺋﻼﻣ

ﺮﻴﺠﺸﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ،ﻱﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ،ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ)

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺒﻧﺎﳉﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﺴﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ

.(ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹴﻕﺮﻄﻛ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﺗ ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑﻭ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﻲﻓ (ﲔﺳﺪﻨﻬﳌﺍ) ﻲﻨﻬﳌﺍ ﺩﺎﺷﺭﻹﺍ

- ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻐﺷﻷﺍ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗﻭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗﻭ

.ﺕﺎﻣﺰﻠﺘﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺪﻌﳌﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭﻭ

.Qaiser Khan :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻞﻳﻮﻃ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺘﺑ ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﺕﹼﺮﻣ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﺻﺎﻋﻷﺍ

ﻯﺪﻟﻭ .ﺎﻬﺗ ﹼﺪﺣ ﻭﺃ ﺎﻬﺛﻭﺪﺣ ﺮﺗﺍﻮﺗ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺎﻬﻠﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻥﺎﻣﺃ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﺎﻬﺘﻣﻮﻜﺣ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﻷ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻣﺎﺗ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺴﺑ

ﻡﺎﻌﻃﺇ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ :ﻲﻫ ﺔﻠﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻞﻀﻓﺃﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑﻭ ،ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺿﹼﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻔﻟﺍ

ﻥﺎﻤﺿ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑﻭ ،ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻡﺎﻌﻄﻟﺍ

.ﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺔﺿﹼﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻔﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻌﻃﺇ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﻳ

ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﻲﻄﻐﻳﻭ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﻷﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ

ﻢ ﹼﻤﺼﻣ ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ .ﺓﺮﺳﺃ ﻲﻧﻮﻴﻠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ

:ﺕﺎﻣﺯﻸﻟ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺄ ﹼﹼﺒﻌﹸﻳ

ﻲﻜﻟ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻊﻗﻭ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺼﻋﻹﺍ ﺐﻘﻌﻓ

ﻞﻤﺸﻴﻟ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗ ﰎ ،2008

ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳﻭ .ﺓﺮﺳﺃ ﲔﻳﻼﻣ 10 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﻪﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﺗﻭ ،ﹰﺍﺪﻴﺟ ﻪﺗﺎﻣﺪﺧ

ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﻩﺪﺻﺮﻳﻭ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ

.ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ

ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ ﺉﺭﺍﻮﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﺣ ﻲﻓ ﻢﺘﺗﻭ

ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻡﺎﻌﻄﻟﺍ

.ﻲﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍ ﻢﺳﻮﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃ ﻊﻣ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻪﻠﻴﻐﺸﺗ ﻢﺘﻳﻭ

ﺪﻗﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﰎ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻪﺗﺭﺍﺩﻹ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﺣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﻤﻈﻨﻣ ﻊﻣ

ﻥﻮﻠﻣﺎﻌﻟﺎﻓ .ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﻢﻴﻟﺎﻗﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ

ﻢﻬﻟ ﻰﻄﻌﻳ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﳌ ﻥﻮﺗﺄﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ

ﺎﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻪﻨﻴﻨﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ ،ﻊﻴﻤﺠﻠﻟ ﻲﻔﻜﻳ

.ﺏﻭﺎﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ

ﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﺿ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺎﻣﺃ

ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﺔﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﻢﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻦﳌ ﺢﻴﺘﻳ ﻮﻬﻓ

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺎﻓ .ﻢﻬﻗﺯﺭ ﺐﺴﻛ

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﺗ

ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺍﺬﻜﻫﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﺎﲡ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺪﻳﺰﺗﻭ

ﻯﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﺓﺪﻴﳉﺍ ﺔﺤﺼﻟﺎﺑ ﲔﻌﺘﻤﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ

ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﻢﻬﻳﺪﻟﻭ ﺪﻴﳉﺍ ﻲﻤﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﹰﺓﺭﺪﻗ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﻥﻮﻧﻮﻜﻳ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

.ﻩﺮﻴﻐﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺻ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻢﻴﻋﺪﺗ ﻱﺭﻭﺮـﻀـﻟﺍ ﻦـﻣﻭ

ﺎﻫﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗ ﻊﻣ ،ﺕﺪــﺟﹸﻭ ﺎﻤﺜﻴﺣ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ

ﺎﲟ ﺎﻬﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻊﻣﻭ ،ﺓﺩﻮﺟﻮﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻤﺜﻴﺣ

ﺐﻘﻋ ﺔﻋﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﺡﺎﻨﺟ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻌﻴﺳﻮﺗ ﻞ ﹼﻬﺴﻳ

ﻥﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ 55 .ﺔﻣﺪﺻ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ

ﺎﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ

ﺔﻤﺳﺎﳊﺍ ﺭﻮـﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺸﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

ﺔﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﺖﻨ ﹼﻴﺑ ﺶﻳﺩﻼﻐﻨﺑ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ ،ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ

.(4 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﻲﻓ ﻮﻟﻭ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﻌﻓ

ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻬﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ

ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﻓ

ﻊﻣ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﺘﻳ ﺎﲟ ﺎﻬﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗﻭ ﻲﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﻥﺎﻣﻷﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻪﺘﺸﻗﺎﻨﻣ ﺖﲤ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻥﻷ ﹰﺎﻴﻓﺎﻛ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻦﻟ ،2

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺔﻴﻘﺒﺘﻣ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﹰﺎﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁﻭ ﺔﻳﺰﻫﺎﳉﺍ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻝﻼـﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺎـﻬـﺗﺭﺍﺩﺇ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻨﻫ ﻝﻮﻟﺪﳌﺍﻭ .ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺪﻴﻛﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﻣ ،ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﻊﻴﻤﲡ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ

(7 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺎﻫﺮﻓﻮﺗ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﺓﺮﻃﺎﺸﻣ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣﻭ

52 .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺐ ﹼﻠﻘﺗﻭ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﻭ ﻦﻣ ﻯﺮـﺧﺃ ﺔﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻓ .ﻪﺗﺎﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﻪﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻘﺒﺘﳌﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ

ﻪﺑ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻰﺤﻨﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺬﺧﺁ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﻭﺃ ﺎﻬﻠﻤﻛﺄﺑ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞﻴﳝﻭ

،ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻥﺁ ﻲﻓ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻰﺘﺣﻭ .ﻩﺪﺿ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻌﺠﻳ ﺎﳑ

ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻮﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ

ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺎﻛ) ﺔﻴﺛﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ (ﹰﺍﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﹰﺎﺳﺎﺒﺘﺣﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﺍ ﻭﺃ

ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻣ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺠﻣ ﻭﺃ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﺃ ﺎﻬﺒﻋﻮﺘﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﻊﻘﺗﻭ ،ﹰﺎﺒﻠﻘﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ

ﺵﺎﻌﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌ ﺔﻴﻨﻤﻀﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ

ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﻳ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﺭﺎﻤﻋﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇﻭ ﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﺘﻟﻮﻴﺳ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺤﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ﻥﺃ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻣﺯﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺗﺍﺬﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺔﺿﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺼﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ

ﻥﺎﻔﻳﺇ ﺭﺎﺼﻋﻹﺎﻓ :ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻤﻠﻟ

ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 200 ﻝﺩﺎﻌﺗ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺳﺃ

ﺓﺮﺿﺎﺣ ﻝﺍﻮﻣﺃ ﻙﻼﺘﻣﺍﻭ 53 .ﺍﺩﺎﻨﻳﺮﻏ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺽﺎﻬﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺭﻮﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍ ﺐﻗﺍﻮﻋ ﺾﻔﺨﻳ ﺵﺎﻌﺘﻧﻻﺍﻭ ﻞﻴﻫﺄﺘﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﺎﻀﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﺛﺃﻭ

ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇﻭ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻬﺟ ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ

ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﱘﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﻑﺍﺮﻃﻷﺍ ﺓﺩﺪﻌﺘﳌﺍ

ﺪﺿ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻠﻟ ﻲﺒﻳﺭﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺼﻟﺎﻓ .ﺹﻮﺼﳋﺍ

ﹰﺎﻴﺒﻳﺭﺎﻛﹰﺍﺪﻠﺑ 16ﲔﺑﺮﻃﺎﺍﺮﺸﻨﻳﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ

ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ ﻲﻓ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﻕﻮﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻴﻔﺘﺴﻳﻭ

ﺐﻘﻋ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﺤﻠﻟ ﺔﻌﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺔﻟﻮﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﺝﺎﺘﲢ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ 54 .ﺓﺮ ﹼﻣﺪﹸﳌﺍ ﻝﺯﻻﺰﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻴﺻﺎﻋﻷﺍ

ﺔﻔﺼﺑﻭ .ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻊﻤﺘﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻬﳉﺍ

ﺔﻤﻫﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺔﻣﺎﻋ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺪﻗ ﻥﺎﻤﺿ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﺣ ﺭﻭﺪﺑ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ،ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺼﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﱘﺪﻘﺗ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻭﺃ ﺕﺎﻬﳉﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﻝﻼﺧ

.ﺉﺭﺍﻮﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻬﺟﺍﻮﳌ ﺓﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﺔﻬﺟﺍﻮﳌ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇﻭ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﺳﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺰﺟ ﻯﻮﺳ ﺎﺴﻴﻟ ﺉﺭﺍﻮﻄﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺘﺳﻭ .ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ

ﻞﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺎﻣﺍﻭﺩﻭ ﹰﺍﺮﺗﺍﻮﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ


59 .ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ

ﻲﻓ ﺎﻣﺇ ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ

ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺭﺎﺛﺁ ﻦﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﻭﺃ ﺽﺮﻌﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ

ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺼﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺪﲡ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺐﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﻮﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻴﻌﺿ

.ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻞﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻏ ﺕﺍﺩﺭﺍﻭ ﲔﻣﺄﺗ

ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﺿ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،ﻊﻴﻤﺠﻠﻟ

ﻪﺿﺮﻌﺗ ﻞﻠﻘﻳ ﺎﲟ ﻝﺩﺎﺒﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﲔﺴﲢ

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﳑﻭ .ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺘﻟ

ﻥﻭﺩ ﻝﻮﺤﻳﻭ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﲡ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ

ﺓﺭﺪﻗ ﹸﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻕﺍﻮﺳﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﻮﺻﻮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣﻭ ،ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻣﺃ ﺰﺟﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ :ﻝﻼﺧ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﺑ ﹰﻼﺜﻣ) ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮﺣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﺭﺍﺪﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻕﺮﻄﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﻮﺻﻮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ

ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ،ﺕﺍﺪﻳﺭﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﻣ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ،(ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﻦﻋﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ

ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﻻﺍ ﻊﻨﻣ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻸﻟ ﺊﺟﺎﻔﳌﺍﻭ ﺩﺎﳊﺍ

ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﺏﻮﺒﳊﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﻭﺰﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﺪﺿ ﻁﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﻲﻓﻭ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ

60 .ﺮﻃﺎﺍ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟ - ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

،ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ

ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍﻭ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ

ﻞﻛ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ :ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍﻭ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻞﻤﺸﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .(7

ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺀﺍﻮﺳﻭ .ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻊﻣ ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺖﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﻮﻄﻨﺗ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻗ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﻭﺃ ﻪﺘﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﺐﺟﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﺼﶈﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺎﻫﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗ ﺐﺟﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻣﻭﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺓﻭﺮﺜﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺓﺎﻋﺍﺮﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ

ﺐﺴﺣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺒﻓ :ﺓﺭﺍﺮــﳊﺍ ﺕﺎــﺟﺭﺩﻭ

ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﻰﻠﺜﳌﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﻷﺍ

ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﰋﺍﻮﻨﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﻩﺎﲡ ﺔﻳﻮﻗ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ

.ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻨﻬﺟﺍﻮﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺓﺭﻮﺛ ﻞﻴﺘﻓ ﻝﺎﻌﺷﻹ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻫ ،ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺕﺮﻓﻮﺗ ﺍﺫﺇ

ﹰﺎﻌﻳﺮﺳ ﻭﺃ ﹰﺎﻴﻓﺎﻛ ﹰﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﻲﺣﻮﻳ ؟ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﺤﻀﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ

ﻚﻟﺫ ﺪﺠﻳ ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻣ ﻪﻧﺃ ﻊﻣ ،ﻦﻜﳑ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﺄﺑ

ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﳑﻭ .(4 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﹰﻼﻬﺳ

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﻮﺻﻮﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻌﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟﺍ :ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ

ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺓﻮﻗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻤﻠﻟ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ

ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺔﻓﺎﻜﻟ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻥﺎﻤﻀﻟ

ﻢﺳﺎﺣ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ .ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﲢ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺍﺮﺘﻗﺍ ﺎﻫﺮﻴﺜﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﻦـﻣﻷﺍﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ - ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺎﺑ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ

ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﺑﺬﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺲﻤﺨﻓ 56 .ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

ﹰﺎﺿﻮﺣ 261 ﺍﺬﻫ ﻞﻤﺸﻳﻭ .ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﻣ

،ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻠﻟ ﺓﺮﺑﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻬﻧﻷﺍ ﺽﺍﻮﺣﺃ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻛﺮﺘﺸﻣ

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺳ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 40 ﻦﻃﻮﻣ ﻲﻫﻭ

ﻻ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩ ﺓﺪﻫﺎﻌﻣ 150 ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺎﻬﻤﻜﲢﻭ

ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ﻲﻜﻟﻭ 57 .ﺔﺌﻃﺎﺸﻣ ﹰﻻﻭﺩ ﹰﺎﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ

ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺈﺑ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﺗ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،ﺓﺪﺣ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺤﻄﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﻴﺑ

ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩ ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﻌﻣ ﻡﺍﺮﺑﺇ ﻝﻼﺧ

ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﺍﺪﻫﺎﻌﳌﺍ

،ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻓ

ﻙﺍﺮﺘﺷﺎﺑ ﻻﺇ ﹰﻻﺎﻌﻓ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻﻭ

ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﻣ ﺎﻬﻠﻤﲢﻭ ﺔﺌﻃﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ

.ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻲﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻯﺮﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻑﺎﻔﳉﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ،ﻞﺜﳌﺎﺑﻭ

ﺎﻫﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺩﺭﻮﺘﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺮﻴﺗﻭ ﺩﺎـﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺐﻨﺟ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﺒﻨﺟ - ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ

ﺩﺪﻋﻭ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺩﺎـﻳﺩﺯﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﻮﳉﺍ ﻝﺍﻮـﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﺍﺪﺘﺷﺍﻭ

ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺩﺍﺮﻴﺘﺳﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ ﺓﺩﺎـﻳﺯ - ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮ ـﳌﺍ ﻕﺍﻮ ـﺳﺃ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ 58 .ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ - ﺔﻘﻴﺿﻭ ﺓﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟ

%26

ﻼﺻﻮﳌ ﻞﻘﻨﻟ

%13

ﺔﻳﺎﺠﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﻨﻜﺴﻟ ﻲﻧﺎﺒﳌ

%8

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 14

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ 7 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

:ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻥﺎﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﻥﺍﺭﺪﺼﻣ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ

ﺎﻴﳌ ﺎﻳﺎﻔﻨﻟ

ﺔﻠﻤﻌﺘﺴﳌ

%3

ﺎﻣﺪﺨﺘﺳ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﻲﺿﻷ

ﺔﺟﺮﳊ

%17

ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟ

%19

ﺔﻋﺰﻟ

%14

.21 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ،IPCC 2007a :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻧ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﳌﺍ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ 2004 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺊﻓﺎﻜﳌﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻉﻼﻃﻼﻟ 1 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ

ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ .(ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟ

،ﻲﺷﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺮﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻤﺳﻷﺍ :ﻞﺜﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟﻭ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 30 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻞﻜﺸﺗ ﻕﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇﻭ

ﺕﺎﺗﺎﺒﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺹﺎﺼﺘﻣﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﻳﻭ .ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﲔﺴﲢ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ،ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ .ﺔ ﹼﻣﺎﻫ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﺔﻋﻮﻟﺎﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻠﻟ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

.ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ


15 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﳑ ﻒﺼﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ (CO 2e ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻢﻋﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﺖﻐﻠﺑﻭ 63 .(ﹰﺎﻨﻃ 23) ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 310 ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺎﻬﻤﻈﻌﲟ ﻊﻔﺘﻨﻳ 64 ،2007 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﻊﻔﺗﺮﳌﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﺤﺻﺃ

ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻢﻋﺪﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺷﺮﺗ ﻥﺄﺑ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺗﻭ ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻠﻟ ﻪﻬﻴﺟﻮﺗ

ﺾﻔﺨﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧﻭ

ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺢﻴﺘﻳ ﻥﺃﻭ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

.ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺎﻳﺍﺰﳌﺍﻭ

ﺓﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺓﺍﺩﺃ ﻯﻮﺳ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺓﺪﻨﺟﺃ ﻊـﻓﺩ ﻞـﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﻗﺎﻔﺧﺇ :ﻦﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﻲﻬﻓ ،ﻡﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﺩﻮﻴﻘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍﻭ ،ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ

ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ ﺲﲤﻭ .ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺢﺋﺍﻮﻠﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﺇﻭ

ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻓ .ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺭﻮـﻣﺃ ﻲﻬﻓ -

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﺎﺼﻟ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﻣ

ﻲﻋﺎﺳ ﻁﺍﻮﻠﻴﻛ ﻞﻜﻟ ﺖﻨﺳ 1.5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ

ﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﻱﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﻞﻗﺃ ،ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺍ ﺎﻣﺃ 65 ،ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺪﻣﺇ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺧﺁ

.(8 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻠﻟﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﺖﺒﺛ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﺕﺎﺒﻘﻋ ﺎﻬﻘﻴﻌﺗ

.ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻌﺼﻟﺍ

ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﺔﻴﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ - ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺑ ﺐﺴﻛ ﹰﺍﺫﺇ

ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﻚـﻟﺫ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﻜﻟﻭ .ﺎﻫﺪﻴﻌﺼﺗ

.ﺔﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﻣ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ

ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺮﶈﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻢﻋﺪﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻐﻟﺇ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻣﻭ

ﺔﻬﺟﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺐﻌﺻ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎـﻳﺯﻭ

ﻦﻳﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﻁﻮﻘﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺰﻔﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻻﺇ ،ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﻵﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﻂﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻲﻓ

ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍﻭ .ﻚﻟﺬﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻠﻟ ﺔﺤﻧﺎﺳ ﺔﺻﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﻼﻌﺠﻳ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻂﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﺯﺃ ﺖﻠﻐﺘﺳﺍ ﺎﺑﻭﺭﻭﺃ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﻥﺃ

.ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺮﶈﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺿﻭﺮﻔﳌﺍ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟ 1974

ﻒﺼﻧ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﻂﺒﻫ ،ﻚﻟﺬﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧﻭ

ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻥﺃ ﻮﻟ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺎﻣ

ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ،ﻞﺜﳌﺎﺑﻭ 61 .ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﳑ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﻗ

ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻲﻔﻌﺿ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺎﺑﻭﺭﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺎﻬﻛﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺗ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺎﻓ 62 .ﻒﺼﻨﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ

ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﻮﻛ ﺐﺒﺳ ﺡﺎﻀﻳﺇ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ 10) ﺎﺑﻭﺭﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ

ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ ﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ ﺔﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ - ﻱﺮﺤﺴﻟﺍ ﻞﳊﺍ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺎﻬﻧﺃ ﻮﻟﻭ – ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻈﻓﺎﳊﺍ 8 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﺐﻠﻄﻟ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺪﺠﺘﳌ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟ ﺎﺼﻣ

،ﺎﻳﺮﻟ ،ﺲﻤﺸﻟ ،ﺎﻴﳌ)

(ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟ

ﺔﻳﻮﻨﻟ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟ

ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ ﺎﺠﺘﺣ

ﻮﻔﺣﻷ ﻮﻗﻮﻟ ﻮﺑﺮﻛ

ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺔﻋﻮﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟ

ﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌ ﺮﺧﻷ ﺎﻐﻟ

(CH4, N2O, F-gases) ﺮﳊ

ﻦﻣ) ﻮﻔﺣﻷ ﻮﻗﻮﻟ ﻦﻋ ﻮﺤﺘﻟ (ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟ ﺎﻐﻟ ﻰﻟ ﺮﺠﳊ ﻢﺤﻔﻟ

ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺪﺑ ﺮﺘﺣ ﻰﻟ ﺎﺴﳌ

2080 2070 2060

2050

2040

ﺔﻨﺴﻟ

2030

ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻮﻫ ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻟﺎﳊ ﻊﺿﻮﻟ ﺎﻘﺑ

(ﺎﻨﻃﻷ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ) ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﳌ

70

2020

2010

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

2000

.IIASA 2009 ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﻖﻳﺮﻓ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ


:ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺑ ﻻ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻪﺿﺍﺮﻌﺘﺳﺍ ﰎ ﺝﺫﻮﳕ ﻞﻜﻓ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﻮﺻﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺤﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺺﻠﺨﻳ

ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞﺻﻮﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ

ﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻤﺳﺎﳊﺍ ﺭﻮﻣﻷﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻤﻓ .ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﺌﺷﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ

ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﳉﺍﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻳﺰﲢﻭ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ :ﻞﺜﻣ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﻮﻀﻟﺍ ﺎﻳﻼﳋﺍﻭ ،ﻱﻮﻴﳊﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﻦﻣ

.ﺔﻴﺴﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ

ﺮﻛﺬﹸﺗ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻓﻮﺘﺗ ﻻ

ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻤﻓ .ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺓﺰﻫﺎﺟ

ﺎﻫﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﳉﺍ ﺔﻴﺣﺎﻀﻳﻹﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗﻭ

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﲔﻳﻼﻣ 4 ﻯﻮﺳ ﻥﺰﺘﺨﺗ ﻻ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

ﺕﺎﺒﺛﻹﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ 68 .ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ

ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺔﻣﻼﺴﻟ ﻡﺎﺘﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﻌﻨﺼﻣ 30 ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻉﺎــﺿﻭﻷﺍﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 100-75 ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﺑ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﻢﺠﺤﺑ

ﺔﻋﺎﻄﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ 69 .ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻃ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ ﺔﻴﻨﻳﺰﺨﺘﻟﺍ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ 2020 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ

.ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ

ﺙﻮﺤﺑ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ

ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻞﻴﳉﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺘﻓ .ﻱﻮﻴﳊﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﺔ ـﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆـﻳ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﺒﺸﻌﻟﺍ ﻲــﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ

70 .ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺔﻤﺣﺍﺰﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﻮﻴﳊﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﳉﺍ ﺎﻣﺃ

ﻮﻬﻓ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻤﺣﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺾﻔﺨﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

.ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺔﻴﺸﻣﺎﻬﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ

ﻥﺍﺪﻘﻓ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻝﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﻲﻋﺍﺮﳌﺍ

71 .ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻤﺣﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻴﺒﺸﻌﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻗﺍﺮﺘﺧﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺐ ﹼﻠﻄﺘﻳ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ

ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺽﺮﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﻦﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ،ﹰﺎﻔﻧﺁ ﺩﺭﻭ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣﻭ .(RD&D)

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺻ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺹﺎﳋﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ

ﺀﺍﻮﺳ ،ﻊﺿﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺑ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ

ﺎﲟ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﻭﺃ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﹰﺎﺳﺎﻴﻗ

ﻊﺿﺍﻮﺗ ﻲﻨﻌﻳﻭ 72 .ﺓﺮﻜﺘﺒﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻨﺻ ﻪﻘﻔﻨﺗ

ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﻻﺍﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺑﻥﺃﺚﻴﺣ،ﻡ ﹼﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍﺯﺍﺮﺣﺇﺀﻂﺑﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ

ﻯﻮﺳ ﻞﻜﺸﺗ ﻻ ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﺤﺘﺳﻭ 73 .ﻉﻮﻤﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 0.4

ﻚﻠﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﺰﻳﺰﻌﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺗﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

ﻞﻘﻧ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ ﻦﻋ ﹰﻼﻀﻓ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ

.(7 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇﻭ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺒﻓ .ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﻲﻓ ﻢﺣﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 16

ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺩﻷﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺰﺗﻭ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﺰﻔﺤﺘﻓ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ

ﻲﻫ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻊﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻓﺍﺮﻣ ﻥﺃ ﺎﲟﻭ 66 .ﺔﺴﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﳋﺍ ﱘﺪﻘﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻖﻓﺍﺮﻣ

ﻲﻧﺎﺒﳌﺍﻭ ﻝﺯﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ

ﻚﻠﺘﻟ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،ﻊﻧﺎﺼﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺪﺼﺘﻘﺗ ﻲﻜﻟ ﻖﻓﺍﺮﳌﺍ

ﺎﻬﺣﺎﺑﺭﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ

ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺡﺎﺑﺭﻷﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻊﻣ ،ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻌﻴﺒﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇﻭ

ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺎﻴﻧﺭﻮﻔﻴﻟﺎﻛ ﺔﻳﻻﻭ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻦﻋ ﻝﻭﺆﺴﳌﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺞﻬﻨﻟﺍ

ﺢﺒﺻﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻼﻟ ﻊﺋﺍﺮﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺔﻳﻻﻭ ﺔﻳﺃ ﻡﻼﺘﺳﻻ ﹰﺎﻃﺮﺷ ﻩﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ

ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﻴﻟﺍﺭﺪﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺢﻨﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺰﻔﶈﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ

.2009 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻦﻤﺿ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺀﺍﺮﺸﻟ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻄﻟﺍ

ﺔﺣﻮﺘﻔﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻔﺼﻨﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻤﻀﻳ ﻲﻤﻴﻈﻨﺗ

ﲔﻠﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻲﺠﺘﻨﻣ ﻝﻮﺻﻭ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺏﺍﺬﺘﺟﺍ ﻰـﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆـﺗ ﺎﻬﻌﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﻰـﻟﺇ

ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺍﺬﻬﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻦﻳﺮﻤﺜﺘﺴﳌﺍ

ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺍﺰﻟﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ

(ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﻢﺳﺎﺑ ﻑﺮﻌﻳ) ﺖﺑﺎﺛ ﺮﻌﺴﺑ

ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻭﺃ ،ﺎﻴﻧﺎﺒﺳﺇﻭ ﺎﻴﻧﺎﳌﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﺎﻤﻠﺜﻣ

ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻁﺮﺘﺸﺗ ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﻣ ﺔﻈﻓﺎﺣ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﻣ

،ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﻣ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻴﻧﺩ ﺔﺒﺴﻧ

67 .ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻠﺜﻣ

ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻗﻮﺗ ﻥﺃ ﹼﻢﻬﹸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﻥﺃ

ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻊﻣ ،ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ

ﲔﺒﺗ ﹼ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍﻭ .ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻜﻟ

ﻲﻓ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻠﻟ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻪﻧﺃ

ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻼﻟ ﺎﳑ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

.(9 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ)

ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﻮﻀﻟﺍ ﺎﻳﻼﳋﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻁﻮﺒﻫ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺳﺃ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ 9 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﻊﺳﺍﻭ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﺴﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ

ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟ ﻮﺤﺒﻟ

$3.68

%5

%22

2001 ﺎﻌﻟ ﺎﻌﺳ ﺮﻴﺴﻔﺗ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺎﻣ ﻞﻣﻮﻋ ﺮﺧ ﻞﻣﻮﻋ

(/ﻻ) ﻞﻣﺎﻌﻟ ﺐﺴﺣ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟ ﺎﻔﺨﻧ

$25.30

$25

ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌ ﺐﻠﻄﻟ ﺮﺛ

$20

%30

ﺎﻔﻜﻟ

%43

ﺔﻄﶈ ﻢﺠﺣ

$15

$10

$5

0

1979 ﺎﻌﻟ ﺎﻌﺳ

.Nemet 2006 ﻦﻣ ﻑﹼﺮﺼﺘﺑ :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣ – ﺔﻴﺴﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﻮﻀﻟﺍ ﺎﻳﻼﳋﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺰﳉﺍ ﺓﺪﻤﻋﻷﺍ ﲔﺒﺗ ﹼ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ) ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﻦ ﹼﺴﲢﻭ (ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﻩﺩﺪﺤﻳ) ﺔﻄﶈﺍ ﻢﺠﺣ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ – 2001 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ 1979 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ 12) ﻥﻮﻜﻴﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻮﻫﻭ ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻡﺰﻠﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ” ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ” ﺔﺌﻓ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ .(ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ

ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻛ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ) ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺼﻟﺍ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺩﺪﻋﻭ (ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ

.(ﻊﻴﻨﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺄﻄﺧ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﺕﺎﻳﺎﻔﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺎﻘﻠﹸﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺠﺘﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﻻﺪﻌﻣ


17 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺰﺠﺘﺤﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺓﺮﻴﻄﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺯﺎﻣﻷﺍ

.ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻊﻣ ﻊﺳﺍﻭ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺩﺎﻤﺴﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﺒﻃﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﺕﻼﻀﻓ ﻕﺮﺣ ﻮﻫﻭ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺪﺑ (ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﺘﻜﻟﺍ) ﻱﻮﻀﻌﻟﺍ

ﹰﺎﺒﻳﺮﻘﺗ ﲔﺠﺴﻛﻷﺍ ﺏﺎﻴﻏ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﻉﻮﻧ - ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ

ﻲﻧﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻩﺍﻮﺘﺤﻣ ﺐﻠﺼﻟﺍ ﻲﺗﺎﺒﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺍ

ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﹴﻝﺎﻋ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺰﺠﺘﺤﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺒﺜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻠﺘﻜﻟﺍ ﻕﺮﺣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻦﻋ ﻖﻠﻄﻨﻳ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻻﻮﻟ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﺦ ﹼﺴﻔﺘﺗ ﺎﻬﻛﺮﺗ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ

ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ

.ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺑ ﻢﺤﻓ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﺧﻵﺍ ﻒﺼﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﻮﻴﳊﺍ

ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺪﻬﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺜﻳﺪﳊﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﺣﻮﺗﻭ

ﻥﺍﺰﺘﺧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺍﺭﺩﺎﻗ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ

ﺎﲟﺮﻟﻭ ،ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻭﺮﻗ ﺓﺪﳌ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻢﺘﻳﻭ ،ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻑﻻﺁ

.ﺔﻴﺻﺎﳋﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻦﻣ ﻖﻘﺤﺘﻠﻟ ﺕﺎﺳﺍﺭﺪﻟﺍ

de la Torre, Fajnzylber, and :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

Nash 2008; Derpsch and Friedrich 2009;

Erenstein 2009; Erenstein and Laxmi

2008; Lehmann 2007; Wardle, Nilsson,

.and Zackrisson 2008

ﺔﻔﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻝﺬﺑ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳﻭ .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

.ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﻲﻓ ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻱﺩﺎﻔﺘﻟﻭ

ﺔﻌﺿﺎﳋﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ" ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺸﺘﻧﺍﻭ

ﺎﲟﺭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،"ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻺـﻟ

ﺪﺣﺍﻮﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 1.8 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳﻭ 74 .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ

ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﻗ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ

ﻦﺴﳊﻭ .ﻝﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻰﺼﻗﻷﺍ ﺪﳊﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ ،ﻆﳊﺍ

ﻦ ﹼﺴﺤﻳ ﺎﻬﻀﻌﺑﻭ .(5 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺭﻮﻬﻈﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺰﺠﺘﲢ ﺎﻬﻧﻷ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻲﺤﻄﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﳉﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺮﻀﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺬﻐﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ

.ﺎﻫﺪﻴﻌﺼﺗ ﺔﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻢﻬﻓ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﺻ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻖﻓﺍﻮﺗ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍ

ﺪﺋﺎﺼﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ) ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﻲﻫﻭ - ﺔ ﹼﻴﻤﶈﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺎﻓ .(ﻙﺎﻤﺳﻷﺍ

ﺔﺴﺑﺎﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 12 ﺎﻬﺘﺣﺎﺴﻣ

ﺀﺰﺟ ﻯﻮﺳ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺐﻛﻮﻛ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﺔﻜﺒﺷﻭ ﺕﺎﻄﻴﶈﺎﺑ ﹰﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﺮﻴﻐﺻ

ﺔﻠﻜﺸﳌ ﺪﻴﺣﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ - ﺔﺑﺬﻌﻟﺍ

ﺓﺪﻤﺳﻸﻟ ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﺖﻴﻗﻮﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﻪﺟﻮﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﺔﻔﻴﺜﻛ ﻉﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ

ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻣﺰﻠﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃﻭ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﻲﻓﻭ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻨﻴﺗﻼﻟﺍ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﻓﻭ ﺕﺎﻳﺬﻐﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺤﻄﺴﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﳉﺍﻭ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺎﻓ .ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ

ﲔﺟﻭﺮﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﲢ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ

ﲔﺟﻭﺮﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻕﻼﻄﻧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺮﻄﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ

ﺓﺪﻤﺳﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺒﻴﺒﺣ ﻊﺿﺍﻮﻣ ﻖﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ -

ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺎﻬﻴﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺑ ﻊﻧﺍﻮﻣ ﺔﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﻭﺃ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻦﻋ ﺭﺎﻌﺸﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ

ﺔﺑﻮﻃﺭ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻘﻴﻗﺩ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﻝﺎﺳﺭﺇ ﻞﺟﺃ

ﺀﺎﻐﻟﺇ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﻱﺮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍﻭ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻩﺎﻴﻤﻠﻟ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﺔﻈﻫﺎﺑ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺾﻌﺑ ﻞﻈﻳ

ﻲﻓ ﲔﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻢﻈﻌﳌ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ) ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻓﺪﻣ ﺔﻄﺧ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .(ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻭﺃ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﻧﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﺎﻬﻧﺃ ﻊﻣ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﻻ

.ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ ﻦ ﹼﺴﲢ

ﺕﺎﻓ ﺎﳑ ﻢﹼﻠﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻴﻔﺘﺴﻳ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺞﻬﻧ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻏ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﺻﻷﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﻳ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 3 ﻡﺎﻌﻃﻹ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﺤﻴﺳ 2050

ﻲﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﺒﻛﺍﻮﻣﻭ ﺮﺧﺁ ﺺﺨﺷ

ﻥﻮﻠﻛﺄﻳ ﺀﺎﻴﻨﻏﻷﺎﻓ) ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺎﻴﻨﻏﻸﻟ

ﺔﻔﻴﺜﻛ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ ﻩﺬـﻫﻭ ،ﻡﻮﺤﻠﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ

.(ﺕﺎﻨﻴﺗﻭﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﺤﻠﻟ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﺓﻭﺎﺴﻗ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳﻭ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﺎﺑﻭ ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﻣ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﻳ ﻮﻫﻭ .ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺓﺪﻨﺟﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﲔﻤﻀﺗ

ﻥﻷ - ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻪﺘﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﻱﺮﲡ ﺎﻣ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺐﺒﺳ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﺓﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ ﻢﻬﺴﺗﻭ ﺔﻨﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 14 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﺩﺪﻬﻳ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ

ﻁﺮﻓﻭ ﻲﻧﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻂﻐﻀﻟﺍﻭ ﺙﻮﻠﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻔﻌﺿﺃ

ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﺎﻬﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻦﻣﺍﺰﺘﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﺱﺎﻗ ﺥﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ

ﺮﻣﺃ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻢﺣﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻮﻬﻓ .ﻝﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺐﻌﺻ

:ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﻦﻣ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗﻭ ،ﻥﺪﳌﺍﻭ ،ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ

ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺢﺒﺼﺗ ﻥﺃ ﹰﺍﺫﺇ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻄﻘﻧ ﻞﻛ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻝﻮﺼﶈﺍ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﻳ ﺚﻴﺤﺑ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻥﻭﺩ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ - ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺘﻜﻬﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻠﻟﻭ ﲔﻋﺭﺍﺰﻤﻠﻟ ﺓﺪﻴﺟ ﺓﺪﻋﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﻣ 5 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﺓﺪﻋﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ

ﻲﻫﻭ) ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﻼﻓ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ

ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﺷﺎﺒﻣ ﺭﻭﺬﺒﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﺤﻗﺇ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﻮﻄﻨﺗ

ﺔﻧﺮﺘﻘﻣ (ﺔﺣﻮﻠﻔﻣ ﻝﻮﻘﺣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻫﺭﺬﺑ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺑ

ﺢﻴﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺕﻼﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺈﺑ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍ :ﻲﻓ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺓﺪﻤﺳﻸﻟ

،ﺎﻬﻴﻓ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻞﻐﻠﻐﺗ ﻢﻴﻈﻌﺗﻭ ،ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺑﻮﻃﺭ

ﻥﺎﻳﺮﳉﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ

ﻩﺬﻬﻓ .ﻝﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻳﺬﻐﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻲﺤﻄﺴﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺎﻬﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺮﺠﻳ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﻷﺍ

ﺔﳊﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 2 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﺮﺸﺘﻧﺍ .ﻊ ﹼﺳﻮﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ ،ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻠﻟ

ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺣﻼﻔﻟﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﻲﻓ ﻊﺳﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺬﺧﺁ

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ 2005 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﱋﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﺱﻭﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ ﻱﺮﻬﻧ ﻞﻬﺳ ﻲﻓ ﺢﻤﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺯﺭﻷﺍ

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 1.6 ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺔﺣﺎﺴﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺣﻼﻔﻟﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ،2008 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑﻭ ؛ﺭﺎﺘﻜﻫ

ﻲﻓ ﺢﻤﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﺤﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 25-20

ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻧ (ﺏﺎﺠﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺎﻧﺎﻳﺭﺎﻫ) ﲔﺘﻳﺪﻨﻫ ﲔﺘﻳﻻﻭ

ﺔﺣﻼﻓ ﻦﻣ ﻰﻧﺩﺃ ﺪﺣ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ

45 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻞﻳﺯﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻢﺘﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

.ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

ﺓﺪﻋﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻗ ﹼﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻜﶈﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﺃ


ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ

.(3 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﻣ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻜﻟ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﹰﺎﻳﺪﲢ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﺔﻟﻭﺰﻌﳌﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻔﻳﺮﻟﺍ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻕﺮﻃ ﻝﺎـﺧﺩﺇ

ﻡﺎﺠﺣﻹﺍ ﻱﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﲔﻠﻋﺎﻓ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻊﻣ

ﺕﺎﻗﺮﻄﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺓﺪﻴﻌﺑ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﻦﻋ

.ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺣﻭ ﹰﺍﺩﻮﻴﻗ ﻥﻮﻬﺟﺍﻮﻳ ﻢﻫﻭ ﺔﻓﻮﻟﺄﳌﺍ

ﻲﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺷﺭﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻫ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﺎﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﻭ

ﺎﻫﻮﻔﻇﻮﻣﻭ ﺓﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﲔﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ

ﻦﻣ ﺍﻮﺴﻴﻟ ﻥﻮﻴﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻥﻮﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣﻭ ﻥﻮﺳﺪﻨﻬﻣ

ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺎﻓ .ﻞﺻﺍﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻬﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﺑﹼﺭﺪﳌﺍ

ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺘﺳ ﺔﺌﺷﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺎﻴﻠﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻘﺜﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﺟ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍﻭ .ﺔﻴﻔﻳﺮﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻣ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﺔﻓﺎﻘﺜﻟ ﻱﺩﺆﳌﺍ ﻢﻴﻠﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺔﻌﻣﺎﺟ ﻪﺗﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺬﻟﺎﻛ - ﺮﳊﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻌﻣﺎﳉﺍ ﻞﺋﺍﻭﺃ ﻯﺪﺣﺇ ﻲﻫﻭ ﺎﻜﻳﺭﺎﺘﺳﻮﻛ ﻲﻓ

ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ - ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺠﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻦﻋ

ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻣﺀﻼﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﲢﻭ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﻸﻟ ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ

ﻊﻨﺻ - ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ

ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻠﻟ ﻲﻔﹼﻴﻜﺗ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻯﺩﺃ .ﹰﺍﺪﻴﻘﻌﺗﻭ ﹰﺍﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ

ﻲﻫﻭ ،ﺔ ﹼﻴﻧﻮﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺀﺎﻀﻘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻤﺿ ﺏﺬﺑﺬﺘﺗ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺓﺮﻜﻓ

ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺓﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻢﻴﻣﺎﺼﺗ ﻊﺿﻭ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻢﻴﻤﺻ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫ

ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻣ :ﻂﻄﺧﻭ

ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍﻭ ،ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ

ﺀﺎﻬﺘﻧﺍﻭ ﻲﻨﳉﺍﻭ ﻉﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺦﻳﺭﺍﻮﺘﺑ ﹰﺍﺀﺪﺑ - ﺹﺎﳋﺍ

79 .ﺎﻬﻤﻴﻣﺎﺼﺗ ﻊﺿﻭﻭ ﻊﻧﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﺤﺘﺑ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺓﺎﻋﺍﺮﻣ ﻥﻵﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻌﻧﺎﺻ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻢﻗﺎﻔﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻥﻵﺍ ﺐﺟﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺢﺒﺻﺃﻭ .ﺎﻬﻧﻮﻬﺟﺍﻮﻳ

ﺓﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻫﺎﲡﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺮﻛﺫ ﻦﻋ ﻚﻴﻫﺎﻧ ،ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍﻭ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺎﻬﺿﺮﻔﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺎﻬﻘﺒﻄﺗﻭ ﺎﻬﻌﻀﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ

ﻥﺪﳌﺍﻭ ﺹﺎﳋﺍﻭ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻫ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

ﻦﻣ - ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ

ﻥﺃ ﲔﺒﺗ ﹼ - ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻜﻠﻤﳌﺍ ﻰﺘﺣﻭ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺃ

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺪﻨﻋ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺓﺪﻘﻌﻣﻭ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻈﻫﺎﺑ ﺝﺫﺎﳕ

ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﻌﻗﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ 80 .ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﹰﺎﻌﺒﻃ ﺪﻋﺎﺴﻳ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺰﻴﻛﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞﻴﲤ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ

ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﲟ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ "ﺔﻳﻮﻗ" ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ

ﺖﺴﻴﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻨﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﰋﺍﻮﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻞـﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻰﻠﺜﻣ ﻂﻘﻓ

ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﻻﺎﻓ 81 .(6 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﺕﺎﻌﻗﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 18

ﻥﻷ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍ

ﻞﻘﺘﻨﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﻷﺍ ﻞﺋﺍﻮﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺑﻭ .ﺔﻴﻤﶈﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﺝﺭﺎﺧ ﻰﻟﺇ

- ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻸﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﻚﻟﺫ

ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺎﺴﻔﻴﺴﻓ ﻥﻮﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻖﻠﺨﻳ ﺚﻴﺣ

ﺓﺮﺠﻫ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ - ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﺪﻴﻔﺗ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﻉﺍﻮــﻧﻷﺍﻭ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍ

ﻲﻬﻓ ،ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻪﻴﻓ

ﻩﺎﲡ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﲟ ﺪﻴﻔﺗ

ﻞﺧﺩﻭ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻊﻣ ﺐﻨﺟ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﺒﻨﺟ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﻉﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺖﺿﹼﺮﻌﺗ ،ﻰﻄﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﻉﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ

ﻒﺼﻧ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻡﺪﺨﺘﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﻞﻗﺃ ﻭﺃ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﻉﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺖﺿﺮﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﳋﺍ

ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻯﺩﺃﻭ 75 .ﺶﺘﻴﻣ ﺭﺎﺼﻋﻹﺍ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ ،ﺎﻴﺒﻣﺍﺯ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺔﺣﺍﺭﺇ

ﻰﻟﺇ ،ﺔﻴﺋﺎﻄﻐﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍﻭ 76 ﺔﻴﻟﻮﻘﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺠﺷﻷﺍ

ﺎﳑ - ﺎﻬﺘﻳﺮﻌﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺑﻮﺼﺧ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ

ﺔﺛﻼﺛ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻉﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻞﺧﺩ ﻲﻓﺎﺻ ﻒﻋﺎﺿ

77 .ﻝﺎﺜﻣﺃ

ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺽﺍﻮﺣﺄﻓ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻩﺎﻴﻤﻠﻟ ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﻘﻔﺘﺳ ﺭﺎﻬﻧﻷﺍ

ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ﺝﻮﻠﺜﻟﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻠﳉﺍ

ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ ﹰﺎﻣﺎﲤ ،ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﺎﻜﻣ ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺗ

ﻦﻣﻭ .ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﺨﺒﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ

ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ

،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻯﺮﺧﺃﻭ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺞﻳﺰﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﲟ ﺎﻬﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻰﺘﺣ ﻚﻟﺬﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻞ ﹼﻘﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﻻﻭ ﻲﻓ :ﲔﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﻐﺻ ﲔﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﻓﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ

ﺔﻄﻴﺴﺑ ﺔﻄﺧ ﺕﺮﻔﺳﺃ ،ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺶﻳﺩﺍﺮﺑ ﺍﺭﺪﻧﺃ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺪﺻﺮﺑ ﺎﻬﺒﺟﻮﲟ ﻥﻮﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻡﻮﻘﻳ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻱﺭﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﺃ ﻢ ﹼﻠﻌﺘﺑﻭ ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﺑ ﹰﺎﻴﻋﻮﻃ ﻉﺭﺍﺰـﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ ﻡﺎﻴﻗ ﻦﻋ

ﺔﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ

78 .ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﻼﻟ

،ﺩﻭﺪﺴﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻨﺑ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ

ﻦﻣ ﺀﺰﺟ ﻯﻮﺳ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ ﺩﻭﺪﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻢﺴﺘﻳ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻤﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﲔﻌﺘﻳﻭ ﹼ ،ﻞﳊﺍ

ﻝﻮﻄﻫ ﺕﺎﺒﻠﻘﺗ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﻻ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺎﺑ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ .ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ

ﻦﻣﺎﻜﻣ ﺔﻳﺬﻐﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇﻭ ﺽﺭﻷﺍ ﺢﻄﺳ ﺖﲢ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻌﺋﺎﺷ ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﺤﺷ ﻁﻮﻐﺿ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ

ﺩﻭﺪﺳ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ ﻲﻫﻭ .ﻂﺳﻭﻷﺍ ﻕﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ

ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﻞﻛﺎﻴﻫ) ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺔﻗﺎﻋﺇ ﻭﺃ ﻒﻗﻭ

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﻗ ﻭﺃ ﻕﺩﺎﻨﺧ ﻲﻓ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﺎﻳﺮﺟ ﺀﺎﻄﺑﺇ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ

ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﻣﻭ ،ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻙﺮﺑﻭ ،(ﻲﺤﻄﺳ ﻑﺮﺻ

ﻝﻮﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌ ﺮﺷﺎﺒﳌﺍ ﻦﻘﳊﺍ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﻯﺮـﺧﺃ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﺎﻜﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﳉﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻠﻤﻌﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍﻭ

ﻝﺎﻤﻌﺘﺳﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ

ﻢﻏﺭ ﻲﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﲢﻭ ﺎﻫﺮﻳﻭﺪﺗ ﺩﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

ﺓﺮﻳﺪﺟ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻈﻫﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﻧﺃ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻼﻟ


19 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﺤﺻ

ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﺕﻼﻳﺪﻌﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﻴﺳ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﺎﻬﻔ ﹼﻴﻜﺗ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻋﺮﻟﺍ

ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﺔﻳﺍﺪﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻑﺭﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻴﻔﺘﺴﺗﻭ ﻰﻠﻋ

.ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻬﻣ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﻼﻳﺪﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻄﻳﺮﳋﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺯﺮﶈﺍ ﻡ ﹼﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ

ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺗ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻌﲡ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ ﺔﻴﻨﻴﳉﺍ

ﺽﺍﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﻑﺎﺸﺘﻛﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺺﻴﺨﺸﺗ

ﺎﻬﻧﺍﺮﺘﻗﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍ ﻩﺬﻫﻭ .ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺔﻳﺪﻌﹸﳌﺍ

ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ،ﺕﻻﺎﺼﺗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻲﻓ ﻡ ﹼﺪﻘﺘﻟﺎﺑ

ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺌﺷﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻫﺎﲡﻻﺍ ﻦﻋ ﻒﺸﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻋﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﲔﻠﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﻭﺰﺗﻭ ﺔﺤﺼﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻞ ﹼﺧﺪﺘﻠﻟ ﺓﺮ ﹼﻜﺒﻣ ﺹﺮﻔﺑ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻨﺘﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻰﻠﻌﻓ .ﺐﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﹰﻼﻌﻓ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ

ﺺﻴﺨﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ ﺬﺧﺃ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ

ﻦﻋ ﺔﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺸﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺪﻴﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻟﻮﻤﶈﺍ

ﻕﺎﻓﺁ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺭﻮﺼﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﻮﺼﻟﺍ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ

ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻝﺎﺼﺗﺍ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗﻭ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻦﻋ ﺔﺑﺎﺒ ﹼﻄﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻟﻭﺰﻌﳌﺍ

.ﺔﻴﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻋﺮﻟﺎﺑ

Burke, Lobell, and Guarino :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

forthcoming; Ebi and Burton 2008;

Falloon and Betts forthcoming; Guthrie,

Juma, and Sillem 2008; Keim 2008; Koetse

and Rietveld 2009; National Academy of

.Engineering 2008; Snoussi and others 2009

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﻣﻭ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻒﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ - ﻉﺍﺪﺑﻹﺍ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ 6 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺓﺮﺟﺎﻬﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻤﻤﻛ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺔﺒﻛﺍﻮﳌ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻛﺮﺣ

ﻱﺩﺎﳌﺍ ﻝﺎﳌﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺆﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺆﺒﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻬﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺲﻴﻟ ﻕﺮﻄﺑ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻓﺍﺮﻐﳉﺍ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﺑ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺔﺗﻭﺎﻔﺘﻣ ،ﺎﻬﺑ

ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺘﺗ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ

ﺭﺎﻄﺧﻷ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻌﻗﺍﻮﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﺤﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﻣ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﻬﻧﻷﺍ ﻥﺎﻀﻴﻓ

ﻭﺃ ﻙﺭﻮﻳﻮﻴﻧ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ ﻭﺃ ﺔﺠﻨﻃ ﺞﻴﻠﺧ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ

ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﻮﻤﻓ .ﻱﺎﻬﻐﻧﺎﺷ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ

ﻕﻼﻏﺇ ﻲﻋﺪﺘﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ ﺖﻠﻔﺳﻹﺍ ﺓﻭﺍﺮﻃ

ﻞﻘﻧ ﻁﻮﻄﺧ ﺔﻋﺎﻄﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﺛﺆﺗ ﻲﻫﻭ ،ﻕﺮﻄﻟﺍ

ﺪﻳﺮﺒﺘﻟ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺀﻑﺩ ﺐﺒﺴﺗﻭ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﻭﻮﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺕﺎﻄﺤﻣ

.ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺗ ﺪﻨﻋ ﹰﺎﻣﺎﲤ

ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﺗ ﻻ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ

ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻞﺑ ،ﺐﺴﺤﻓ ﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻗ ﻲﻓ

ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻣﺎﺼﺗ

.ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﻮﻗ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ

ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻠﺛﺎﻤﳌﺍ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺪﻣﺇ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻯﺪﻣ

ﺔﻠﻣﺎﻜﺘﻣ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺍ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ

ﺢﺒﺼﻴﺳﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺪﺿ ﺕﺎﻃﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺔﺑﺎﺜﲟ

ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻣﺎﺼﺗ ﻊﺿﻭ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻴﺳﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺀﻮﺿ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻠﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

ﺔﻴﻛﺭﺎﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﻻﻭ 82 .ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﻤﺘﺣﺍ

ﺎﻬﻧﻷ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻢﻴﻤﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻞ ﹼﻬﺴﺗ

ﲔﻌﻔﺘﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﺠﺸﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ ﺔﻨﻫﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﻒﻌﻀﻟﺍ

.ﺎﻬﻟ ﻢﻬﺘﻴﻜﻠﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﻹﺎﺑ

ﻊﻨﺻ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻱﺭﻭﺮ ـﻀ ـﻟﺍ ﻦـﻣ

ﺎﻬﺴﻔﻧ ﻲﻫ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔـﻳﺭﻭﺩ ﺽﺍﺮﻌﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻊﻣ ،ﺔﻴﻔ ﹼﻴﻜﺗ

،ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻌﺑﺎﺘﻣﻭ ﺪﺻﺭﻭ ﻊﻤﺟ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﻣ

ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﺑ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻣ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﻨﻜﳑ ﺢﺒﺻﺃ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦ ﹼﺴﲢ ﻞﻀﻔﺑ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ

ﻞﻛﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻌﻓ .ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ

ﹸﺭﺎﻘﺘﻓﻻﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ

ﻭﺃ ،ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺎﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﻚﻠﻬﺘﺴﻳ ﺍﺫﺎﻣﻭ ﻚﻠﻬﺘﺴﻳ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﺭﺎﻌﺸﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣ ﺝﺎﺘﻨﺘﺳﺍ :ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻌﲡ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻦﻋ

ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﲢﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻓﻮﳉﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﺍ

ﻰﺘﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﲢﻭ ،ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻢﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ

ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﺔﻠﻏ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺛﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﺎﻬﺘﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻢﻴﻈﻌﺗ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ

.(3 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ

،ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺾﻐﺑ

ﺕﺍﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺮﺸﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻌﺘﻴﺳ ﹼ

ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ - ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ

.ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺍ ﻦﻳﺩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻲﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﳌﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ

ﺔﻋﻮﻨﺘﻣ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻃ ﻝﻮﺻﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ ﹼﺲﻤﺘﺳ

ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻥﺎﻤﺿﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻠﻟ

ﻰﻠﻌﻓ .ﻙﺎﻤﺳﻷﺍ ﺪﺋﺎﺼﻣﻭ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﻷ ﺔﺟﺎﺣ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ،ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ

ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍﻭ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﻑﺎﻔﳉﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﺩﻷﺍ ﺓﺪﻴﺟ

ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ

ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺎﻫﺭﺪﺼﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ

ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﳌﺍ ﺲﻧﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺬ ﹼﺒﲢ ﻥﻮﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍﻭ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﻷﺍ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ ﺔﻨﻫﺍﺭ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺳ

ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﺎﻫﺩﻮﺴﻳ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺔ ﹼﻠﻏ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ

ﺲﲤﻭ .ﺎﻬﺳﺎﺒﺤﻧﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺓﺮﺜﻛ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺩﻼﻴﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑ ﻞﻴﺠﻌﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﻴﳉﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻊﻤﺠﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍﻭ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﻻﻼﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﺤﻤﻠﻟ ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺔﻳﹼﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺒﻳﺮﻗﻭ

- ﹰﺎﻴﺒﺴﻧ ﺔﻤﻴﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ

ﺭﺎﺠﺷﺃﻭ ﺔﻴﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻄﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺠﺘﺴﻤﻛ

ﺔﻳﺎﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ - ﺔﺒﻃﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍﻭ ﻑﻭﺮﻐﻧﺎﳌﺍ

ﺓﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﳌﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﺍﺬﻟﻭ ،ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻤﻠﻟ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺽﹼﺮﻌﺘﺗ

ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺎﻬﺗﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺐﻴﻟﺎﺳﺃﻭ ﻕﺮﻃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻗﻭ ﺔﻴﻠﻋﺎﻔﺗ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻝﻮﺻﻮﻟﺍ ﻕﺮﻃ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺀﺎﻘﺘﻧﺍ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺔﻄﻴﺴﺑ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻳﻮﻘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺬﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ

.ﺕﺎﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻨﺘﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﻮﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻲﻨﺒﺗ ﺎﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻋ

،ﻊﻳﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﹰﻼﻛ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻗ

ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﻤﻋ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪـﻗ ﺓﺮﺜﻛﻭ

ﻻ" ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮــﺟﻹﺍ ﺬ ﹼﺒﲢ ﻲﻫﻭ .(2 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻞﺜﻣ) ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺢﻴﺘﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍﻭ "ﻡﺪﻧ ﺎﻬﻌﺒﺘﻳ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ ﻮﻟﻭ (ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍﻭ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣﺈﺑﻭ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﺬ ﹼﺒﲢ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺴﻣ ﺲﻜﻋ

ﻂﻄﺧ) ﻦﻜﳑ ﺪﺣ ﺮﺒﻛﻷ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﺌﻃﺎﳋﺍ

ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﹰﺍﺩﻮﻴﻗ ﺔﻨ ﹼﻤﻀﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺮﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺎﻫﺩﻮﻴﻗ ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻟﻮﻬﺴﺑ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻴﻠﺣﺎﺴﻟﺍ

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻭﺃ ﻱﺮﺴﻘﻟﺍ ﻊﺟﺍﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ

ﻲﻫﻭ .(ﺔﻈﻫﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﺑﻮﻌﺼﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻤﺴﺘﻳ

ﻊﻓﺩ) ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻣﻼﺳ ﺶﻣﺍﻮﻫ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ

ﻭﺃ ﹰﺎﻋﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍ ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﺮﺴﺟ ﺀﺎﻨﺒﻟ ﺔﻳ ﹼﺪﳊﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗ ﻭﺃ ،ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻓ ﻞﻤﲢ ﻪﻨﻜﳝ ﺮﺴﺟ

ﻊﻘﺗ ﺕﺎﺌﻓﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻞﻤﺸﺘﻟ ﻥﺎﻣﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ

ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻃ ﻂﻄﺧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﻲﻫﻭ .(ﺔﻓﺎﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﻫﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﺗ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﻼﻟ


ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﻲﻌﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ

ﻞﻘﻧﻭ ،ﺀﺍﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻈﻧ :ﻞﺜﻣ - ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻣ

ﺭﻮﻣﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ - ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻦـﻣﺃﻭ ،ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﳊﺍ

.ﻲﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻰﻨﻌﹸﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﺩﺍﺮﻓﻷﺍ ﻙﻮﻠﺳ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻛﺮﳊﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺳ ﺔﳉﺎﻌﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ

ﺀﺰﺟ ﻯﻮﺳ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ﻻﻭ .ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ

ﻞﻛﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﻓ .ﺔﻠﻜﺸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻒﻗﻭ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳﻭ .ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺎﻬﺘﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﺎﻬﻟ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ ﻱﺭﻮﻔﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻠﻟ ﺔﺜﻳﺪﳊﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﻞﻛ ﻙﻮﻠﺳ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻩﺎﲡ ﺎﻬﺘﻧﻭﺮﻣ

،ﻝﺎﻤﻋﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻗﻭ ،ﲔﻜﻠﻬﺘﺴﳌﺍ :ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻠﺛﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗﻭ .ﺕﺍﺭﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻌﻧﺎﺻﻭ

ﹰﺎﺻﺎﺧ ﹰﺍﺪﻴﻛﺄﺗ ﺦﺳﺍﺮﻟﺍ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻓ

ﺎﻬﻟ ﺔﻗﻼﻋ ﻻ ﺔﻴﻠﺧﺪﺗ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ

.ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺎﺑ

ﻲﻓ ﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑ ﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ

ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻤﻓ .ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﺼﺗ

ﺔﻴﻋﻮﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻞﺻﺍﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑ ﺖﻠﻌﺟ ﻥﺪﻨﻟ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺧ ﺕﺎﻧﹼﻮﻜﻣ ﹼﻢـﻫﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻬﺟﻮﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﻣ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ ."ﻥﺪﻨﻟ ﺭﺍﺮـﺘـﺣﺍ" ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﺕﺃﺪﺑ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘﻟ ﺓﺮﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻂﻐﺿﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻃﺎﺴﺒﺑ :ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻄﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﲔﺑﻭ ﺎﻬﻨﻴﺑ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﺳﻷﺍ ﻉﻼﻃﺇ ﻝﻼﺧ

ﺔﻘﻓﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻼﻋ ﺀﺎﻄﻋﺇ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﺮﺳﺃ

ﹴﻑﺎﻛ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘﻟ

.(8 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ)

ﻲﻓ ﻞﺛﺎﳌﺍ ﻱﺪﺤﺘﻠﻟ ﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ

ﻞﻤﻋ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺎﻓ .ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﻷﺍ

ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻠﻟ ﺡﻮﻨﻤﳌﺍ ﺾﻳﻮﻔﺘﻟﺍ ﺲﻣﻼﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ

ﻱﻷ ﺩﻮﻌﺗ ﻻ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺒﻓ .ﺎﻬﻨﻣ

ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺄﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﻹﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﻰﻄﺨﺘﻳ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻃ ﹰﺍﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ

ﻞﻳﺯﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻡﺎﻗﻭ .ﺔﺒﺨﺘﻨﻣ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺔﻳﺃ ﺭﻮﻈﻨﻣ

ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻜﻠﻤﳌﺍﻭ ﻚﻴﺴﻜﳌﺍﻭ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍﻭ ﲔﺼﻟﺍﻭ

،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﻣ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻫ ﺀﺎﺸﻧﺈﺑ

ﻖﻴﺴﻨﺗ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻫ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺕﺄﺸﻧﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺖﻨ ﹼﺴﺣﻭ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻌﻴﻓﺭ

ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻊﻨﺻ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ

.(8 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺀﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﻢﻴﻟﺎﻗﻷﺍﻭ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﺢﻴﺘﺗ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺏﺮﻗﻷﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍﻭ ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔﻓﺎﺿﻹﺎﺑﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺮـﺛﻷﺍﻭ

ﺢﺋﺍﻮﻠﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺡﺎﻀﻳﺇﻭ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻒﺋﺎﻇﻮﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ﻲﻬﻓ ،ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺢﺋﺍﻮﻠﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻊـﺿﻭ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 20

:ﺙﻭﺪﳊﺍ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ

،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ

ﺓﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻄﳋﺍ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺤﻔﺼﻟﺍ ﻒﺼﺗ

ﺮﻴﻐﺗﻩﺮﻴﺜﻳﻱﺬﻟﺍﻱﺪﺤﺘﻠﻟﻱﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍﻭﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ

ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻴﻌﻣ ﹰﺎﺻﻮﺼﻧ ﻭﺪﺒﻳ ﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ :ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﻮﻠﻋ ﺐﺘﻛ ﻲﻓ

ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ ،ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ

،ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﻥﺃ ﺖﺒﺛ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻲﺒﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻢﻋﺪﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻐﻟﺇﻭ

ﺮﻴﺜﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﻲﺿﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻠﻬﺳ ﻦﻜﺗ ﻢﻟ ﺭﻮﻣﻷﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ

ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺣﻼﺻﻹﺍ ﻞﻌﺠﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻋ ﹰﻻﺅﺎﺴﺗ

ﻦﻤﻜﻳﻭ .ﺔﻨﻜﳑ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ

ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﺞﻳﺰﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺏﺍﻮﳉﺍ

.ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ

ﻲﻋﻮﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ ﻲﺗﺄﺗ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻪﻔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﻻ ﻲﻋﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﻠﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍﻭ

ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﻜﻠﻓ :ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻯﺪﺼﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ

ﻙﻮﻠﺳ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺛﺎﳌﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻠﻟ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺕﺎﺴﺳﺆﳌﺍﻭ ﺩﺍﺮﻓﻷﺍ

ﺡﺎﳒ ﻯﺪﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟ

ﻊﻣﻭ .ﻩﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ﻩﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ - ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﺔﻠﻜﺸﲟ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﺑﻮﺟﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺻ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﻮﻜﺘﺳ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﻞﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻭﺃ

ﺩﺭﺍﻮـﻣﻭ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﻖﻠﺧ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻲﳌﺎﻋ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻡﺰﻠﻳ ﺎﲟ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ

ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻢﻏﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺍﺬﻜﻫﻭ .(5

ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻴﻠﺤﻣ ﺃﺪﺒﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ

ﻢﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻱﺃﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢﻭ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ

ﻲﻟﻭﺩ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗ

ﻲﻋﺍﺮﻳ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﻣ

ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻊﻗﺍﻭ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺬﺧﺄﻳﻭ

.ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﻒﻗﻮﺘﻳ ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ :ﺓﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ ﻁﻮﻐﻀﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻱﺃﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢﻭ ﻙﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﺑ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﻷﺍ ﺮﺛﺆﺗ

.ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻣ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻦﻋ ﺔﲡﺎﻧ ﺎﻬﺴﻔﻧ ﻲﻫ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ

ﺔﻤﻛﻮﳊﺍ ﻞﻛﺎﻴﻫﻭ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﻞﻳﻮﺤﺘﻟ ﻊﻓﺍﺪﻟﺍ ﻞﻜﺸﺗ ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺢﻟﺎﺼﳌﺍﻭ

ﻊﻣ ،ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻣ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﲔﻧﺍﻮﻘﻟﺍ

ﻡﺪﻌﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧﻭ 83 .ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ

ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺣ ﻰﻘﺒﺗ ،ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻋ ﺫﺎﻔﻧﺇ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ

.ﺔﻴ ﹼﻠﺤﻣ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺣ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﺘﻟﻻﺎﺑ

ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺢﺠﻨﺗ ﻲﻜﻟ

ﺕﺍﺩﺪـﶈﺍ ﱢ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺓﺎﻋﺍﺮﻣ ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻓ .ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﺗ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻠﺑ ﺎﻬﻌﺒﺘﻳ

ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻉﺍﻮﻧﺃ ﺞﻳﺰﻣ :ﻞﺜﻣ ﺔﻴﻠﺤﻣ

ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺔﻴﻠﻀﻓﺃﻭ ،ﺔﻠﻤﺘﶈﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺎﺑ ﺔﻋﻮﻓﺪﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺔﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ


21 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃﻭ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ 700 ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻙﺭﺎﺸﻳ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ

"ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ ﺪﻳﺆﺗ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﺔﻠﻤﺣ" ﻲﻗ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺔﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺱﺎﻴﻘﻠﻟ

ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻊﻣ ﺐﻨﺟ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﺒﻨﺟﻭ .(http://www.iclei.org)

ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻌﻤﳉﺍ

C40 ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﲔﻌﺑﺭﻷﺍ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ

ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺲﻠﺍ ﻭ ،Climate Leadership Group

ﰎ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﺳﺅﺮﻟ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃ ﺪﻴﻌﺻ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻓ ﻁﺍﺮﺨﻧﻻﺍ

ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃﻭ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﲔﻜﻤﺘﻟ ﻰﻌﺴﺗ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

ﺓﻮﻘﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﺒﺳﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ

ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻟﺎﻤﺘﺷﺍﻭ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ

Bai 2006; World Bank 2009d C40; :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

Cities Climate Leadership Group,

ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ) http://www.c40cities.org

.(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﻳ ﺎﳌ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ 7 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

ﻊﺋﺎﺷﻭ ﻦﻣ ﻊﺑﺮﻣ ﺮﺘﻣ 500000 ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ ﺎﻣ

ﺎﻣ ﻱﺃ ،ﺔﻴﺴﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﲔﺨﺴﺗ

ﲔﺨﺴﺗ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻁﺍﻭﺎﻐﻴﻣ 0.5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳ

ﻚﻠﺘﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧﻭ .ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ

ﺚﻠﺜﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻂﺒﻫ ،ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ

.ﻒﺼﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﰎﻭ

ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﻞﻌﺟ ﻩﺎﲡﺎﺑ ﻙﹼﺮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻠﺜﻣﻷﺍ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﻻ ﻦﻛﺎﻣﺃ

.ﲔﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻄﺨﺘﻳ ﺎﻤﻴﻓ ﺮﺛﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺬﺧﺁ

ﻲﻧﺪﺳ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ ﺖﺤﺒﺻﺃ ،2008 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻔﻓ

ﻪﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﻻ ﹰﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺃ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ ﻝﻭﺃ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ :ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇﻭ ،ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﻂﻄﺨﺗﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﻦﻏﺎﻬﻨﺑﻮﻛ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﺮﻔﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﺔﻄﳋﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .2025

ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺗﻭ ﺡﺎﻳﺮﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ

ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﻴﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻓﻮﻗﻭ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﺠﻣ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺟﻭﺭﺪﻴﻬﻟﺍﻭ

.ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﻨﺤﺷ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇﻭ ﻒﻗﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﺣﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻘﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﺎﻔﺧﻹﺍﻭ

ﹰﺎﻤﺴﺘﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺧﺃ .ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ

ﻦﻛﺎﻣﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍﻭ

ﻡﻮﻘﻳ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺑﻭ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺙﻭﺪﺣ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻚﻟﺬﺑﻭ - ﻪﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﺑ

.ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻞﻗﺄﺑ

ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻻ .ﻒﺼﻨﳌﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﺱﺎﺳﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻻﺇ ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻴﻘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺞﻟﺎﻌﻳ ﻲﳌﺎﻋ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ

ﻪﻨﻜﳝ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻻﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻪﻴﻓ ﻱﺮﺠﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﳌﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﻻﺇﻭ ،ﺪﻬﳉﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﺀﺐﻋ ﻞﻤﺤﻳ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺑﻭ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘﻟ ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍ ﻖﻠﺨﻳ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ

ﻰﺘﺣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﻴﻬﺴﺗﻭ

ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺮﺠﳊﺍ ﻢﺤﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻢﻬﺴﺗ ﻢﻟ ﻭﺃ ﹰﻼﻴﻠﻗ ﺖﻤﻬﺳﺃ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺎﺑ

ﺍﺫﺇ ﺎﻣ ﺮﺛﺄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺑ ﻻﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﺨﻳﺭﺎﺗ

ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﺻﺮﻓ ﻢﻨﺘﻐﺘﺳ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ

ﹰﺍﺮﺛﺄﺗ ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻠﻟ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌﺎﺑ ﹰﺍﺪﻳﺪﺷ

،ﻚﻟﺫ ﻑﻼﺨﺒﻓ .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻣﺪﻘﺗ

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻝﹼﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ

.ﻪﻠ ﹼﻤﲢ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﳑ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ

ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺢﻀ ﹼﺘﻳﻭ .ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻬﺳﻹﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻮﻫ ﺎﻣ

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻴﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻛﻮﻠﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺾﻓﺭ ﻰـﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﻠﻴﳝ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ

ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺔﻔﺼﻨﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺎﻬﻧﻭﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ 85 .ﺓﺪﻴﻔﻣ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ ﺎﻤﻋ ﺮﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺾﻐﺑ

ﻦﻛﺎﻣﺃ ﻥﺪﳌﺍ ﻞﻌﺟ ﻩﺎﲡﺎﺑ ﻙﺮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺢﻀ ﹼﺘﻳ

ﻒﻴﻛ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﻻ

ﺬﺨﺘﺗ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺃ ﻥﺃ

ﻭﺃ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﺘﻟﻻﺍ ﺏﺎﻴﻏ ﻲﻓ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ

ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻔﻓ .ﺔﻣﺍﺮﺻ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺳ

ﻖﻓﺍﻭ ،ﻮﺗﻮﻴﻛ ﻝﻮﻛﻮﺗﻭﺮﺑ ﻡﺮﺒﺗ ﻢﻟ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ،ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺎﺑ ﺀﺎﻓﻮﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ ﻒﻟﺃ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻰﻀﺘﻘﲟ ﻝﻮﻛﻮﺗﻭﺮﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻩﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ

.ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻳﺪﻠﺑ ﺀﺎﺳﺅﺭ ﺎﻬﻣﺮﺑﺃ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﺣ

ﺎﻬﻧﺎﻜﺳ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻭﺎﻫﺰﻳﺭ ﺔﻨﻳﺪﻣ ﻲﻓﻭ

ﺖﻌﻤﺟ ،ﲔﺼﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﺷ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻤﺴﻧ ﲔﻳﻼﻣ 3

ﺔﻴﻌﻳﺮﺸﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍﻭ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻳﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

ﻊﺳﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘﻟ

ﺕﺎﺤﻃﺎﻧ ﺀﺎﻨﺑ ﻢﺘﻳﻭ .ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﳌﺍﻭ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ

ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﺄﺑ ﺎﻫﺪﻳﻭﺰﺗﻭ ﺏﺎﺤﺴﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ 99 ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﻡﺪﺨﺘﺴﺗﻭ ،ﺲﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ

ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻩﺎﻴﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﺨﺳ ﺮﺳﹸﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ

ﺭﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺷﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺲﻤﺸﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ

ﺪﻤﺘﺴﺗ ﺕﺎﻫﺰﻨﺘﳌﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﺿﺇﻭ ﻉﺭﺍﻮﺸﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﻧﺇﻭ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﺗ ﺔﻴﺋﻮﺿ ﺎﻳﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻨﻳﺪﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻚﻠﺘﲤ ،ﻝﺎﻤﺟﻹﺎﺑﻭ .ﺔﻴﺴﻤﺸﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﺭﹾﻭﺩ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﻂﻄﳋﺍﻭ

،ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ) ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻉﺎﻓﺪﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﳋﺍﻭ ،ﺪﻴﻴﺸﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺀﺎﻨﺒﻟﺍﻭ

ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻦﻋ

ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺍ) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ (ﻲﻠﶈﺍ

،ﺙﺭﺍﻮﻜﻟﺍ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﺮﻃﺎﺨﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺏﺮﻘﻠﻟ ﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧﻭ .(ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮـﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇﻭ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻤﳉﺍ ﻲﻋﻭ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ ،ﲔﻨﻃﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﲔﻠﻋﺎﻔﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻴﻳﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗﻭ

ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻬﳉﺍ ﻊﻃﺎﻘﺗ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻲﻓﻭ 84 .ﺹﺎﳋﺍ

ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻀﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺢﺒﺼﺗ ،ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﻮﻬﻤﳉﺍﻭ

ﻦﻋ ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺓﺰﻬﺟﻷﺍ ﺔﻟﺀﺎﺴﻣ ﻪﻴﻓ ﻢﺘﺗ

ﻮﻫ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺳﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﻻﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻴﻗ ﺐﺒﺳ

ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺈﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺔﻴﻠﶈﺍ

.(7 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ :ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﻣﻭ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ

ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷﻭ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻓ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﻦﻣ

ﹰﺎﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ ،ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺪﺑ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ :ﹰﺎﻔﺼﻨﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﻃﻷﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻩﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗ

ﺩﻮﻬﳉﺍ ﺪﺷﺃ ﻝﺬﺒﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺭﻮﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻣﺍﺮﺻ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺚﻴﺣ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻫ ﺎﻬﺘﻳﻮﻟﻭﺃﻭ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﳌﺍ

ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻠﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﻚﻴﻫﺎﻧ ،ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻉﺎـﺿﻭﻷﺍ ﻡﺎﻣﺃ ﺎﻬﻔﻌﺿ

ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﳉﺍ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ

ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻲﻓ ﹰﻻﺎﻌﻓ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺱﻭﺭﺪﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ


ﺕﺎﻓﻼﺧ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻃﺎﺎﺑ

.ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻧ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﲔﻤﻀﺘﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺯﺰﻌﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺪﻗ ﻦﻤﻀﻳ ﻥﺃﻭ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ

.ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﺣ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺎﻓ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻝﺩﺎﺒﺗﻭ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ

ﺕﺎﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ ﺐﻧﺎﺟ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﻘﺗ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻛ ﺮﻃﺎﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋﻭ ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ

ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗﻭ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ

ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .(7

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻼﻟ ﹰﺎﻗﺍﻮﺳﺃ ﻖﻠﺨﺗ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻘﻨﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺬﺨﺘﺗ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻝﺩﺎﺒﺗﻭ ﻙﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ ﻞﻜﺷ

ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻭﺃ -

ﺔﻓﺎﻈﻧ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻠﻟ

ﻑﺍﺮﻃﻷﺍ ﺩﺪﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻯﺮﺟ ﺎﻤﻛ)

ﺩﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻝﺎﻳﺮﺘﻧﻮﻣ ﻝﻮﻛﻮﺗﻭﺮﺑ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺘﻟ

.(ﻥﻭﺯﻭﻷﺍ ﺔﻘﺒﻄﻟ ﺓﺪﻔﻨﺘﺴﹸﳌﺍ

ﹰﻻﻮﺒﻘﻣ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﺔﻘﻠﻗ ﻲﻬﻓ .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﺐﻠﻄﹸﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺐﻟﺎﻄﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻲﻄﻌﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﻼﻳﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻛﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺮﺗﻭ

ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﺓﹼﻮﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ

ﺔﻘﻠﻗ ﻲﻫﻭ .ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺢﻤﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ

ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﻹﺍ ﺮﻴﺧﺄﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﺴﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﺗﺭﺪﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺮﺛﺆﺗ

.ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻦﻣ ﺱﻭﺭﺩ :ﻝﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻝﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ .ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍﻭ

ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻖﻔﺘﳌﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺍ ﻖﻘﺤﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺱﻭﺭﺪﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻔﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻪﻨﻜﳝﻭ

.ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ

،ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌ ﹰﻼﻳﻮﲤ ﺲﻴﻟ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ

ﺢﻴﺘﺗ ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺔﺑﺮﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

،ﺔﺻﺎﺧ ﺓﺭﻮﺼﺑﻭ .ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣ ﹰﺎــﺳﻭﺭﺩ

ﻢﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﹰﺍﺭﺩﺎﻧ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺰﺘﻟﻻﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺿﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺢﺒﺻﺃ

ﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺃ ﻊﻣ ﻖﺑﺎﻄﺘﺗ ﻢﻟ ﺎﻣ ﺎﻬﻣﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ

ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻁﻭﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺵﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍ - ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺗ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ .ﻡﺍﺰﺘﻟﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻜﻠﳌﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻊﺠﺸﺗ ﺕﺍﻮﻄﺧ ﻝﻮﺣ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺓﺪﻨﺟﺄﺑ ﻡﺍﺰﺘﻟﻻﺍﻭ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻘﻠﺘﳌﺍ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺗ

ﻥﺃ ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﲔﺒﹸﺗ ﹼ

ﺔﻈﻫﺎﺑ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺽﺮﻔﻳ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﺩﺪﻌﺗ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﻘﻠﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﺘﻠﻟ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻣﻭ .ﺎﻬﺘﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﺾ ﹼﻔﺨﻳﻭ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 22

ﻊﻴﻤﳉﺍ ﺔﺤﻠﺼﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻭﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻛ ﺔﻘﻴﻘﺣ

ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻬﻓ .ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﹰﺎﻧﺎﻤﺿ ﺖﺴﻴﻟ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻴﻘﻴﻘﺣ ﺲﺟﺍﻮﻫ

ﻊﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﺝﺎﻣﺩﻹ ﻊﻓﺍﺪﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ

ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺭﺪﻗ ﻞﻘﻨﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻬﻀﻌﺑ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻖﺗﺎﻋ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻋ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻟﺍﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺃﺪﺒﻣ ﲔﻤﻀﺗ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ

ﺪﻳﺪﺒﺘﻟ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﻞﻌﻔﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺔﻘﺜﻟﺍ ﻖﻠﺧﻭ ﻑﻭﺎﺍﻭ ﺲﺟﺍﻮﻬﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

ﻮﻫﻭ - ﺪـﻣﻷﺍ ﺔﻠﻳﻮﻄﻟﺍ ﻑﺍﺪــﻫﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟ

ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺏﺭﺎﻘﺗ

ﺔﺒﺴﻧ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻠﺑ ﻱﺃ ﻉﻮﻗﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻥﺎﻤﺿ - ﻡﻮﻠﻌﻣ

.ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﺸﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﻭﺎﺴﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﺎﻬﻧﺃ ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﻵﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ ﺖﻨﻠﻋﺃ ﺍﺬﻜﻫﻭ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﹰﺍﺪﺑﺃ ﻰﻄﺨﺘﺗ ﻦﻟ

86 .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺪﺋﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ

ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻡﺎﻴﻗ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﺍﺬﻟﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﺭﺪﺼﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺔﻳﺭﺬﺟ ﺩﻮﻬﺠﺑ

ﺔﻠﺑﺎﻗ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺡﻭﺭ ﻦﻋ ﻦﻫﺮﺒﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﻼﻟ

ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻌﺠﻳﻭ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﺰﻔﺤﻳ ﻥﺃﻭ ﺓﺩﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ

ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻮﻤﻨﻠﻟ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻝﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﻠﻟ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻲﻫ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻝﻮﺼﳊﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ

.ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺎﻤﺘﻫﻻﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﻻﺎـﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍ ﻝﺍﺯﺎﻤﻓ

ﻥﺃ ﻮﻟﻭ ،ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﻀﺣ ﺪﻳﺰﺗ ﺕﺬﺧﺃ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻊﺑﺎﺴﻟﺍ ﺰﻛﺮﳌﺍ ﺖﻠﺘﺣﺍ ﲔﺼﻟﺎﻓ) ﻝﺎﺍ

87 ،ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﻉﺍﺮﺘﺧﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺑ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﺕﺭﺪﺼﺗ ﺔﻳﺪﻨﻫ ﺔﻛﺮﺷ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ 88 .(ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ ﺮﻴﺴﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺼﻟﺍ ﻞﻗﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ - ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﲢ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ - ﺎﻬﻨﻴﺑ ﻦﻣ

.ﺎﻬﻋﺎﺿﻭﺃ ﺐﺳﺎﻨﺘﻟﺎﻬﻠﻳﺪﻌﺗﻭﺃﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺹﺎﺧ ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻞﻛﺎﺸﻣ ﻖﻠﺨﻳ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻀﻘﻟ

.ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﳌ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻘﻧ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ

ﻲﻬﻓ .ﺔﻔﻴﻔﻃ ﻥﻵﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ ﻲﻫ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺚﻠﺛ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺖﺛﺪﺣ

ﻲﻫﻭ - (CDM) ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺎﻬﻟﻮﲤ

ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺓﺎﻨﻘﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ

ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ 89 .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 160 ﻎﻠﺒﻣ ﹰﺎﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﺺﺼﺧ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ -

ﺓﺪﺣ ﻒﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺒﻟ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺪﻧﺎﺴﻳ - 90ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ

ﰎﻭ .ﹰﺍﺪﻠﺑ 130 ﻲﻓ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ ﺪﻬﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﻵﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ﺐﺟﻮﲟ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﻣ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ

ﺔﻠﻓﺎﳊﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ ﻝﻼﺧ


23 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺚﻴﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﰎ ﺍﺫﺇﻭ

ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﻱﺩﺎﻔﺗ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﺎﻫﺪﺷﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻓ .ﲔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺓﺭﺎﺴﳋﺍﻭ

ﻖﻴﻓﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻴﺳﻭ ﺢﻴﺘﻳ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍﻭ ﺔﻟﺍﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﻱ ﹼﺪﺼﺘﻟﺍ

ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻦـﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻦﻋ ﹼﻞﻘﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻓ .ﺔﻌﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺽﺍﺮــﻏﻷ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

400 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﺤﺑ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ

ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟ ﻂﻴﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ) 2030

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺪﺘﻟﺎﻓ .(1

ﺎﻬﻄﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 8 ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﳌﺎﺑ ﺮﻛﺬﹸﻳ ﹰﺎﺌﻴﺷ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﺗ ﻻ 2012

ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ :ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺓﻮﺠﻔﻟﺍ 10 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﻱﺩﺆﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﻧﺭﺎﻘﻣ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ

:ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻻ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 675-140

ﻻ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 400 :ﻂﻴﺳﻮﻟ

ﻻﺪﻟ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ

:ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟ ﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ

ﻻ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 90-30

ﻻ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 75 :ﻂﻴﺳﻮﻟ

ﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟ

ﻻ ﺎﻴﻠﻣ 10

2030

2012–2008

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

UNFCCC 2008; IIASA 2009; :ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ :ﺭﺩﺎﺼﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ؛IEA 2008c; McKinsey Global Institute 2009a

ﻮﻫ ﻭﺭﻮﻴﻠﻟ ﻑﺮﺻ ﺮﻌﺳ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ،2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ McKinsey

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ .Jae Edmonds ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻊﻣ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ 1.5

Agrawala and Fankhauser 2008; World Bank :ﻒﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟ

.2009c; and Project Catalyst 2009

ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﺔﻠﹼﻠﻈﹸﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻤﻋﻷﺍ ﻞﹼﺜﲤ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

.ﻂﻴﺳﻮﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃﻭ ،2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻒﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ

0

ﻡﺎﺘﻟﺍ ﺞﻣﺪﻟﺍ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ،ﺔﻠﺼﻔﻨﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻠﻟ ﺔﺼﺼﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹ

.ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻥﺃ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺢﺿﻮﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻞﺣﺍﺮﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻑﺍﺮﻃﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻊﻤﺠﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ

ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻤﻈﻨﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﻈﻨﻨﻠﻓ .ﺓﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺍﻭ ﺔﺻﺎﳋﺍ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﻌﳌﺍ :ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟ ﺓﺩﺪﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻤﺴﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻫ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺪﻌﺑ ﺎﻣ ﺓﺮﺘﻓ ﻢﻈﻌﳌ ﻑﺍﺮﻃﻷﺍ ﺓﺩﺪﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺎﺠﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺣﺮﺘﻘﻣ ﺮﻬﻈﺗ ﺕﺬﺧﺃﻭ .ﺔﻴﻧﺎﺜﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺏﺮﳊﺍ

ﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻝﻮﺣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺧ ﻲﻓ ﻪﺣﺮﻃ ﰎ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﺴﳌﺍ

ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺐﺟﻮﲟ ﻲﻟﺎﺑ ﺮﲤﺆﻣ ﺎﻫﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ

ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣﻭ 91 .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﻡﺰﺘﻠﺗ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻞﻌﺟ ﺕﺎﺣﺍﺮﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

"ﺕﺎﺟﺮﺍ" ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﺕﺎﺟﺮ ﹸﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﺄﺑ

ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻲﻫ

ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﻡﺰﺘﻠﺗ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮــﳊﺍ

ﺔﺻﺎﳋﺍ ﻑﺍﺪــﻫﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪـﺑ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

.ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺎﺑ

،ﹰﻻﻭﺃ .ﺏﺎﺒﺳﺃ ﺔﺛﻼﺜﻟ ﺔﻟﻮﺒﻘﻣ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﺹﺮﻓﹰﺎﻣﹸﺪ ﹸﻗﻊﻓﺪﺗﻥﺃﺎﻬﻨﻜﳝ

،ﹰﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ .ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﻣ ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺗ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﻣ ﻦ ﹼﻤﻀﺘﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺔﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﻲﻫ

ﻊ ﹼﺳﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﻮﳕ ﺔﻋﺮﺳ

ﺔﻨﻤﻴﻫ ﺹﺮﻓ ﻊﻣ) ﻝﺎﳌﺍ ﺱﺃﺭ ﺪﻴﺻﺮﻟ ﻊﻳﺮﺴﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯﻭ (ﺔﺌﻴﺳ ﻭﺃ ﺓﺪﻴﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷﻭ ﺔﻤﻈﻧﺃ ﻊﻓﺪﻟ ﺔ ﹼﺤﻠﳌﺍ

ﺮﻴﺴﻠﻟ ﺕﻼﺻﺍﻮﳌﺍﻭ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﺮﻀﳊﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺪﻨﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺭﺎﺴﻤﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺫ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺪﻴﺟ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ

،ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ :ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﻦﻣ ،ﹰﺎﺜﻟﺎﺛ .ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ

ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﺜﻛ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻏ

ﹰﺎﻳﺪﲢ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻮﻫﻭ - ﺓﺪﻘﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺪﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﺻﺭ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﺻﺮﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺑ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻠﻟ

ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﺣ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﻩﺬﻬﻟ ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍﻭ

92 .ﺎﻬﺘﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻯﺪﻣ ﻢﻬﻓ ﺩﺮ ﻮﻟﻭ

ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺭﹾﻭﺩ :ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﻢﺴﺘﳌﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﻻﺍ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺔﻬﺟ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻟﺍﺪﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﻑﺎﺼﻧﻹﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻖﻴﻓﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﲔﺑ ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺎﺑ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﻯﺮﺧﺃ ﺔﻬﺟ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻭ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﻪﻴﻓ ﻢﺘﺗ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻥﺎﻜﳌﺍ

.ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﻹﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻊﻓﺪﻳ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺑﻭ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻖﻓﺪﺘﳌﺍ ﻲﻓﺎﻜﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺎﻓ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺎﻬﻟﻮﺼﺣﻭ ﺎﻬﺗﺍﺭﺪﻗ ﺀﺎﻨﺒﺑ ﹰﺎﻧﺮﺘﻘﻣ -

ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺪﻧﺎﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ - ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻲﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﰎ ﺍﺫﺈﻓ

.ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﺩﺍﺩﺰﺗ ،ﺾﻔﺧﻷﺍ ﻲﻫ ﻪﻔﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ


ﻖﻠﻗﻭ ،(ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻞﺜﻣ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ

93 .2012 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻌﺑ ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﺔﻳﺭﺍﺮﻤﺘﺳﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻔﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑﻭ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻢﻬﻓ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﹼﻢﻬﹸﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻔﺨﺗ ﻻ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ

ﺔﻃﺎﺴﺒﺑ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﺗ ﻲﻬﻓ - ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺲﻴﻟﻭ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ) ﺙﺪﲢ ﺚﻴﺣ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺾﻔﺨﺗﻭ (ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﳌﺍ

.(ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ ﺎﳑ) ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺐﺟﻮﲟ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺪـﻨـﺻ ﻡﺪﺨﺘﺴﻳ

ﺔﺌﻴﻫ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺓﺍﺩﺃ ﻮﺗﻮﻴﻛ ﻝﻮﻛﻮﺗﻭﺮﺑ

ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 2 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﺿ

ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺪﺣﻭ) ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻕﺩﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ

ﺡﻮﺿﻮﺑ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .(ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ

،ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮـﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﻝﺍﻮﻣﺃ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻩﺬﻬﻟ ،6 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻪﻴﻟﺇ ﺮﻴﺷﹸﺃ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﻩﺬﻬﻓ .ﺔﺑﻮﻏﺮﻣ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺺﺋﺎﺼﺧ ﺓﺪﻋ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ) ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﺿ ﺽﺮﻔﺗ ﺓﺍﺩﻷﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ) ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺑ ﺪﻴﺟ ﺮﻣﺃ ﻮﻫﻭ (ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

،ﺔﺒﻳﺮﺿ ﺔﻳﺃ ﻞﺜﻣﻭ .ﺔﺌﻴﺳ ﻲﻫﻭ (ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﻡﺪﻋ) ﺎﻬﻨﻣ ﺪﺑ ﻻ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻪﺟﻭﺃ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﻕﻮﺳ ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﻲﺣﻮﻳﻭ .(ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ

ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻳﺰﻟﺍ ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻢﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ

ﻊﻘﺗ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﻀﻠﻟ ﺔﺠﻴﺘﻧ ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻌﺋﺎﻀﻟﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺩﹼﺭﻮﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻴﺳ ﺎﻤﻛ 94 .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺜﻣ ﺎﻬﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣﻭ - ﺔﻟﺍﺪﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻔﺸﻟﺍ ﺉﺩﺎﺒﻣ

ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺷ

ﻚﻠﺗﻭ ﺓﺎﻧﺎﻌﻣﻭ ﹰﺎﻔﻌﺿ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺪﺷﻷ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪـﻗ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﺎﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﻥﺯﻭ ﺀﺎﻄﻋﺇ ﺔﻟﺍﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺑ ،ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ

.ﹰﺍﺮﻘﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺪﺷﻷ ﺩﺪﺤﻣ

ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﻊﻴﺳﻮﺗﻭ ﻢﻴﻋﺪﺗ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﻳ

ﺕﺍﻭﺩﻷﺍ ﺡﻼﺻﺇ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷﺍ

ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺡﻼﺻﻹ .(6 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻪﺑ ﻢﻬﺴﺗ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺪﻠﻟ ﹰﺍﺮﻈﻧ ﺔﺻﺎﺧ ﺔﻴ ﹼﻤﻫﺃ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﺕﺎﺣﺮﺘﻘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻯﺪﺣﺇ ﻑﺪﻬﺗﻭ .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻂﻴﺴﺒﺗ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ ،ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻘﻓﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮـﺟﺇ

ﺰﻛﺮﺗﻭ .ﺓﺭﺍﺩﻹﺍﻭ ﺽﺍﺮﻌﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻲﺘﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﲔﺴﲢ

ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺎﺣﺮﺘﻘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﺔﻴﻧﺎﺛ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ

ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﻣ

ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺑ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﺑ

ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗﻭ .ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ ﺓﺪﻧﺎﺴﲟ ﺎﻬﺘﻔﻴﻇﻭ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ

ﹰﻻﺎﺜﻣ "ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻛﺆﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻑﺍﺪﻫﻷﺍ"

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺚﻴﺣ ﺀﺍﺩﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﻣ ﺔﻄﺧ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﺤﺿﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻊﻴﺑ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﻪﻴﻠﻋ ﻖﻔﺘﻣ ﺱﺎﺳﺃ ﻂﺧ

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 24

ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ،ﻞﺜﳌﺎﺑﻭ .ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

75 ﺎﻬﻴﻟﺇ ﺔﺟﺎﳊﺍ ﺲﲤ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺂﺿ ﲔﺒﺗ ﹼ ،ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ

ﻲﻓ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺮﻓﻮﺘﳌﺍ

.(10 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ) ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻔﻴﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺺﻘﻧ ﻢﻗﺎﻔﻳ ﻝﺍﻮـﻣﻷﺍ ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗﻭ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ

ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ

،ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﺅﺰﲡ :ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻛﺎﺸﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﻞﺜﻣ ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻉﺎﻔﺗﺭﺍﻭ

ﺕﺍﻭﺩﺃ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻋﻭ ،(CDM) ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ

ﹰﺎﻴﺋﺎﻨﺛ ﹰﺎﻗﻭﺪﻨﺻ 20 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ 6 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﺤﻳ

ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﹰﻼﻣﺎﻋ ﻭﺃ ﹰﺎﺣﺮﺘﻘﻣ ﻑﺍﺮـﻃﻷﺍ ﺩﺪﻌﺘﻣ ﻭﺃ

ﺍﺬﻫ ﺮﻔﺴﻳﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ

ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺲﻳﺭﺎﺑ ﻥﻼﻋﺇ ﺎﻫﺩﺪﺣ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻦﻋ ﺅﺰﺠﺘﻟﺍ

ﺯﺎﻬﺟﻭ ﻡﺎﻈﻧ ﻕﻭﺪﻨﺻ ﻞﻜﻠﻓ :ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ

ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻊﻓﺮﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﻪﺑ ﺹﺎﺧ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

ﻻ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻑﺍﺪــﻫﻷﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺐﻳﻮﺼﺘﻟﺍ ﻖﻘﺤﺘﻳ

.ﺔﻘﻴﺿ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ

ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﺺﻨﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺉﺩﺎﺒﳌﺍ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ - ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺲﻳﺭﺎﺑ ﻥﻼﻋﺇ

ﲔﺣ - ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﺔﻟﺀﺎﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﻖﻴﺴﻨﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﻡﺍﺰﺘﻟﻻﺍ

ﺢﺿﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﺋﺰﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ

.ﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻲﻓ ﻖﻳﺩﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺣﻮﺗ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ

ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ،ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻑﺍﺮﺸﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﺎـﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ

ﻦﻣ ﺀﺍﻮﺳ) ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺽﺮﻓ

ﻮﻫ (ﻝﻭﺍﺪﺗﻭ ﺎﻴﻠﻋ ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﺔﻄﺧ ﻭﺃ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﺿ ﻝﻼﺧ

ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ ﻰﻠﺜﹸﳌﺍ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﻟﺍ

ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﻭﺃ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﳌﺍ ﺹﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺀﺎﻘﺑ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﺐﻳﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻘﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﻵﺍﻭ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺀﺍﺩﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺓﺍﺩﻷﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻲﻬﻓ ﻚﻟﺬﻟﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺓﺮﺷﺎﺒﳌﺍ ﺕﻼﻳﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻑﺩﺭ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻤﺳﺎﺣ

.ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﻌﻗﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺖﻄﺨﺗ

ﺕﺰﻔﺣﻭ ﺔﻋﺮﺴﺑ ﺖﳕ ﺚﻴﺣ ،ﺓﺪﻳﺪﻋ ﻕﺮﻄﺑ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻴﻋﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺩﺍﺯﻭ ﻢ ﹼﻠﻌﺘﻟﺍ

ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺎﻬﻟ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﺖﻨﺑﻭ

ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ ،ﺕﺎ ـﻳﺩﻭﺪ ـﶈﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻙﻮﻜﺸﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍﻭ ،ﺔﻳﻮﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ

ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻖﻘﲢ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﻥﻷ) ﺎﻬﻴﻓ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺐﺴﺘ ﹸﲢ ﺔﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳﺇ

ﺭﺎﻴﺘﺧﺍﻭ ،ﺱﺎﺳﺃ ﻂﺧ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺑﻮﺴﻨﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﹰﺎﻌﺿﺎﺧ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﹰﺎﻤﺋﺍﺩ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺱﺎـﺳﻷﺍ ﻂﺧ

ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻡﺪﻋﻭ ،ﺎﻬﺘﻤﻛﻮﺣ ﻒﻌﺿﻭ ،(ﻚﺸﻠﻟ

ﻞﻤﺸﺗ ﻻ) ﺎﻬﻗﺎﻄﻧ ﺔﻳﺩﻭﺪﺤﻣﻭ ،ﺎﻬﻠﻤﻋ


25 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﺓﺮﻴﺴﻣ ﻊﻓﺩ ﻲﻓ

.ﻡﺎﻣﻷﺍ

ﹰﺎﺠﻬﻧ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﺻﺭ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻊﺒﺘﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﹰﻻﻭﺃ

ﻞﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﺘﻳ ﺚﻴﺣ ،"ﻁﺎﺸﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺪﻨﺘﺴﻣ"

ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﹰﻻﺪﺑ ﻥﻮﻋﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

.ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻲﻬﻓ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﲢ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﻣﺍﻮﻋ ﻖﻴﺒﻄﺗ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ

ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﳌ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻟﺪﺘﻌﻣﻭ ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ

ﺞﻬﻧ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ .ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺍ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃﻭ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺺﺧﺭﺃﻭ ﺔﻃﺎﺴﺑ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ

ﺎﻣ ﹰﺎﻘﺒﺴﻣ ﻑﺮﻌﻴﺳ ﻮﻬﻓ ،ﻉﺭﺍﺰﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﻱﻷ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻨﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺮﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻓﺪﳌﺍ ﻲﻫ

.ﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﻁﺎﺸﻧ

ﻦﻣ ﺕﻼﻣﺎﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﹰﺎﻴﻧﺎﺛ

ﻥﻮﺠﻣﺪﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ "ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻤﺟﻹﺍ ﻱﺩﺪﺤﻣ" ﺐﻧﺎﺟ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻴﳊﺍ ﺏﺎﺤﺻﺃ ﻉﺭﺍﺰﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ

ﻲﺒﻳﺮﺠﺘﻟﺍ ﻉﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻱﺮﺠﻳ ﺎﻤﻠﺜﻣ ،ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺼﻟﺍ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻤﻓ .ﺎﻴﻨﻴﻛ ﻲﻓ ﻩﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗ ﻱﺭﺎﳉﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺎﻤﺟﻹﺍ ﻱﺩﺪﶈ ﻦﻜﳝ ،ﻉﺭﺍﺰﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻊﻣ

ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻜﺘﻧﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻰﻟﺇﻭ ﻢﺋﺍﺩ ﹴﻕﺍﻭ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞ ﹼﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻊﻴﻤﺠﺘﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ

ﻞﻌﲡ ﻥﺃ ﺀﺍﺩﻸﻟ ﺔﻟﺪﺘﻌﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻊﻣ ﺕﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﳌﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﹰﺎﻣﺎﲤ ﹰﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ

.ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ

ﺔﻴﺘﺴﺟﻮﻠﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ،ﹰﺎﺜﻟﺎﺛ

ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﲔﻋﺭﺍﺰﻤﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ -

ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻥﻮﺟﺎﺘﺤﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ

.ﻲﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﺷﺭﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﻢﻴﻋﺪﺗ - ﺔﻘﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﳌﺍ ﻢﻴﻤﻌﺗ ﻲﻓ ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺮﺼﻨﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻬﻓ

.ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻓﻭ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑ

Canadell and others 2007; Eliasch :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

2008; FAO 2005; Smith and others 2008;

Smith and others 2009; Tschakert 2004;

UNEP 1990; Voluntary Carbon Standard

.2007; World Bank 2008c

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺭﻭﺩ 8 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ

.ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ ﻞﻣﺎﻛ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺠﺷﺃ

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 400 ﲔﺑ ﺎﻣ ﺎﻴﺴﻴﻧﻭﺪﻧﺇ ﺐﺴﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑﻭ .ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 2 ﻭ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ

ﻲﻄﻐﺗ ﺚﻴﺣ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻰﺘﺣ ،ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﻒﺼﻧ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺓﺮﻴﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ

ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺓﺭﺎﻘﻟﺍ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 400-100

ﺕﺍﺭﻻﻭﺩ 10 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻌﻓ .ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ ،ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻄﻟﺍ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﺳﺮﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺋﺎﳕﻹﺍ ﺕﺍﺪﻋﺎﺴﻤﻠﻟ ﹰﻻﺩﺎﻌﻣ

.ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﻷ ﺎﻬﳝﺪﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ

ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇﻭ

ﻑﻼﺘﺋﻻﺍ ﻞﻴﻜﺸﺘﺑ ﺖﻣﺎﻗ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﺑﺎﺴﺣ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﺖﲤ ،ﺓﺮﻴﻄﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗﻭ ،ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ

ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺓﺪﻨﺟﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ،ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻﺍ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ

ﺔﺻﺮﻓ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺭﻮﺜﻌﻠﻟ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻰﻌﺴﺗﻭ

ﺐﺟﻮﲟ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﻡﺎﻬﺳﻹﺍ

ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗﻭ ﺓﺰﻳﺎﻤﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﺎﻬﺗﺎﻴﻟﻭﺆﺴﻣ

ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ

ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﳌﺍ ﻞﺻﺍﻮﺘﺗﻭ .ﺎﻬﺗﺎﺑﺎﻏ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻢﺳﺎﺑ ﻑﺮﻌﻳ ﺕﺎﺑ ﺎﻣ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﻦﻜﻟﻭ ،(REDD) ﺎﻫﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﻦﻣ

ﺮﺻﺎﻨﻋ ﺾﻌﺑ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻬﻤﻈﻌﻣ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﻳ

ﺎﻫﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻲﻓ ﻪﻴﻟﺇ ﻞﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻱﺃ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺀﺰﺟ

.ﻦﻏﺎﻬﻨﺑﻮﻛ

ﺖﺴﻴﻟ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺒﳌﺍ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﺎﻤﻨﻴﺒﻓ .ﺪﳊﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻣﺪﻘﺘﻣ

ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻆﻫﺎﺑ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻬﺟﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻄﻴﺴﺑ ﺔﺑﺎﺠﺘﺳﺍ ﻮﻫﻭ

ﹰﻼﻤﻋ ﻪﻗﺍﻮﺳﺃ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗ ﺲﻴﻟ ،ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﻣﻭ

ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺎﻴﻨﻴﻛ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﺒﻳﺮﲡ ﹰﺎﻋﻭﺮﺸﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﹰﻼﻬﺳ

ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺾﻳﻮﻌﺘﻟﺍﻭ (3 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ

ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﺍﺮﻴﺸﻳ ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻮﻏﺎﻜﻴﺷ ﺔﺻﺭﻮﺑ ﻲﻓ

ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻄﳋﺍ ﻚﻠﺘﻟ ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺹﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻣ ﻉﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺢﺒﺼﻳ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻠﻟ ﻊﻔﺗﺮﻣ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ :ﻂﻘﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﺲﻴﻟ

ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﻲﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻪﻀﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﹰﺓﺩﺮﻔﻨﻣ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

(ﺔﻨﺳ/ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﺎﻐﻴﻏ) ﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﻦﻜﻤﳌ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ

ﺎﻌﺘﻟ ﺔﻤﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻀﻋ ﺮﻴﻏ ﺪﻠﺑ

ﺎﺼﺘﻗ/ﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻ ﺪﻴﳌ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟ

7

ﻮﺤﺘﻟ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﺋﺎﺳ

ﻮﺤﺘﻟ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﺋﺎﺳ ﺎﺼﺘﻗ

6

ﺎﻌﺘﻟ ﺔﻤﻈﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻀﻋ ﺪﻠﺑ

ﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻ ﺪﻴﳌ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟ

ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟ ﻮﻤ

5

ﺎﻳﺎﻔﻨﻟ

ﺔﺟﺮﳊ

ﺔﻋﺰﻟ

100<

50<

20<

100<

50<

20<

100<

50<

20<

100<

50<

20<

100<

50<

20<

100<

50<

20<

100<

50<

20<

ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟ

ﻼﺻﻮﳌ ﻞﻘﻨﻟ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟ ﺪﻣ

(ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺪﻴﺴﻛ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ/ﻻ) ﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺮﻌﺳ

.TS.27 ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ ،Barker and others 2007b :ﺭﺪﺼﳌﺍ

.ﺕﺎﻋﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻛ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﻹﺍ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ ﲔﺒﺗ ﹼ ﺀﺍﺩﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺩﻮﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻁﻮﻄﳋﺍ :ﺔﻈﺣﻼﻣ

ﺎﻨﺒﻟ

4

3

2

1

0

ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﻻ

ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ

ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻬﻨﻜﻟﻭ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﻞﻫ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻑﻼﺧ

ﺔ ﹼﻗﺪﹺﺑ ﺎﻬﺻﺎﺼﺘﻣﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻘﻣﻭ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺱﺎﻴﻗ

ﺕﺎﺑﺬﺑﺬﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻪﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺍﺫﺎﻣ ؟ﺔﻴﻓﺎﻛ

ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍﻭ ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ

؟ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﻭﺎﻔﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﻖﺋﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺔﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳﺇ ﻁﺎﻘﻧ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻄﻋﺇ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﻞﻫ

ﻞﺒﻗ ﺎﻫﺫﺎﺨﺗﺍ ﰎ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺎﻬﻟ ﺐﺴﲢ

ﻞﻫ ؟ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻭﺮﻗ ﻭﺃ ﺩﻮﻘﻌﺑ ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﳌﺍ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﻴﺑﺎﺠﻳﻹﺍ ﻁﺎﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﺢﻨﻣ ﻱﺩﺆﻳ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻕﻮﺳ ﻕﺍﺮﻏﺇ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺴﺑﺎﻴﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻲﻟﺎﺘﻟﺎﺑﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻁﻮﺒﻫﻭ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺣ ﺽﺎﻔﺨﻧﺍ

ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﰎ ؟ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﺖﻌﺿﻭ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﺎﻳﺎﻀﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻡ ﹼﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ

ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺱﺎﻴﻗ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺷﺭﺇ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

.ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻣ 7.3 ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﻲﻓﺎﺻ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻎﻠﺑ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ 2000 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﺘﻜﻫ

ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﺎﻐﻴﻏ 5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺤﺑ ﻢﻬﺳﺃ ﺎﳑ ،2005

،ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺎﻤﻛ .ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻊﺑﺭ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻭﺃ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﺎﻐﻴﻏ 0.9 ﻢﺠﻨﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﺎﻬﻧﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺮﻴﺠﺸﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﻦﻣ

ﲔﺴﲢ ﺲﻴﻟ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻊﻄﻗ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ

ﻦﻣ ﹰﺍﺀﺰﺟ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺘﻟﺍﺯﺇﻭ ﺎﻫﺭﺎﺠﺷﺃ

ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ

.ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﺔﺒﺳﺎﻨﻣ ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻲﻓ ﻡﺎﻤﺘﻫﺍ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻓﺪﻣ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ ﻥﻭﺆﺷ

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

ﺔﻴﻨﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻬﺟﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .ﺔﻴﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﺮﺧﺁ ﻦﻃ ﺎﻐﻴﻏ 6 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻝﺩﺎﻌﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ

ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ،ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﻼﻓ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﻞﻴﻠﻘﺗ :ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ

ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ،ﺯﺭﻷﺍ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺯ ﻝﻮﻘﺣﻭ ﺔﺒﻃﺮﻟﺍ ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

.ﺎﻬﻨﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻱﻮﻀﻌﻟﺍ ﺩﺎﻤﺴﻟﺍﻭ ﻲﺷﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ

1.5 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ ﺎﻐﻴﻏ

ﻦﻄﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﹰﺍﺭﻻﻭﺩ 20 ﻮﻫ ﺮﻌﺳ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ

.(ﻞﻜﺸﻟﺍ)

ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ

ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍﻭ

ﺎﻬﻴﻠﻋ ﻅﺎﻔﳊﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺼﻓ .ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ

ﺔﻋﻮﻨﺘﻣﻭ ﺔﻌﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺡﺎﺘﻔﻧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻘﺒﻳ

ﻉﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻤﺤﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ ،ﻕﺯﺮﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﻛ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﺧ ﻦﻣ

ﻑﺮﻄﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﻊﺋﺎﻗﻭ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻘﻳﻭ ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﻻﺰﻧﺍﻭ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍ ﻞﺜﻣ

ﺓﺭﺍﺩﺇ ﲔﺴﲢﻭ ﺔﺣﻼﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ

ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺓﺪﻤﺳﻷﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .ﺔﻴﺟﺎﺘﻧﻹﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ

ﻞﻗﻷﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ - ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺎﻬﻘﻴﻘﲢ

ﺍﺫﺇ :ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻏ ﺎﻬﻳﺪﻟ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ

ﻊﻄﻗ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻕﺍﻮﺳﺃ ﺖﻓﻮﺘﺳﺍ


ﱘﺪﻘﺘﺑ ﻡﻮﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻛﺮﺸﻟ

ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﻣ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗ ،ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ

ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﺔﻐﻟﺎﺑ ﻲﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍﻭ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺤﻴﺤﺼﻟﺍ

ﻪﻧﺃ ﻊﻣﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺏﺎﻄﻘﺘﺳﺍ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ

ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍ ﹼﺪﺼﻤﻛ) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ

ﺔﺒﺴﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺒﳋﺍ ﻥﺈﻓ ،(ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻀﻴﻔﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺕﺎﻛﺍﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻵﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ

ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﱘﺪﻘﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻥﺄﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﺗ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ

.ﹰﺎﻌﺿﺍﻮﺘﻣ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ ﺕﺎﻛﺍﺮﺸﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻕﺎﻄﻧ

ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﻲﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﻞﻳﻮﲤ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﺗ

،ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﻟﻭﻷﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ

ﺕﺍﺪﺣﻭ ﺕﺍﺩﺍﺰﻣ ﻞﺜﻣ :ﺓﺮﻜﺘﺒﳌﺍ ﻂﻄﳋﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺔﻣﺰﻠﹸﳌﺍ ﻯﻮﺼﻘﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ) ﺔﺼﺼﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻜﻟﺍ

ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻰﻀﺘﻘﲟ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻠﺒﻘﺗ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

،(ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ

ﻦﻋ ﺓﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﺽﺮﻓﻭ

ﺔﻴﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﻳﺮﻀﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻞﻘﻨﻟﺍ ﻞﺋﺎﺳﻭ

ﺔﻴﻧﺎﻜﻣﺇ ﺎﻬﻟ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﻻﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ ﺕﺍﺮﺸﻋ ﺔﺌﺒﻌﺗ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑﻭ .ﺔﻨﺳ ﻞﻛ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻳﺪﳉﺍ

ﻢﺴﺘﻣ ﺮﻌﺳ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺿﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ

ﺎﻣﺇ ﻝﻼـﺧ ﻦﻣ - ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻐﻟ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻯﻮﺼﻗ ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﺽﺮﻓ ﻭﺃ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ

.ﻱﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﺮﺛﺃ ﻪﻟ ﻥﻮﻜﻴﺳ - ﺎﻬﻟﻭﺍﺪﺗ ﻢﺛ ﻦﻣﻭ

ﺹﺎﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻡﻮﻘﻴﺳ ،ﻚﻟﺫ ﻖﻘﺤﺘﻳ ﺎﻣﺪﻨﻋﻭ

ﻊﻣ ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺈﺑ

ﺮﻌﺳ ﺬﺧﺄﺑ ﲔﻜﻠﻬﺘﺴﳌﺍﻭ ﻦﻳﺮﻤﺜﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻴﻗ

ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

ﻕﺍﻮﺳﺃ ﻭﺃ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ

ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺪﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺎﺑ ﺢﻴﺘﺗ ﻦﻟ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻲﻜﻟﻭ .ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﺢﻴﺘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﹰﻻﺩﺎـﻋ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻣ ﻞﺣ

ﺔﻴﻟﺁ ﺡﻼﺻﺇ :ﻲﻠﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ

ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻯﺮﺧﻷﺍ ﻂﻄﳋﺍﻭ ﺔﻔﻴﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ

،ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﻕﺍﻮﺳﺃ ﲔﺑ ﻂﺑﺮﻟﺍﻭ ،ﺀﺍﺩﻷﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﺔﺼﺼﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺪﺣﻭ ﻊﻴﺑﻭ ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺗﻭ

.ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﻼﻳﻮﺤﺘﻟﺍﻭ (AAUs)

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺳ 8 ﺮﻤﻌﻟﺍ ،ﺎﻴﻨﻴﻛ ،ﻱﺭﺎﻬﺑ ﺎﻜﺷﻮﻧﺃ

ﻢﻟ ﻥﺇ ﺔﺑﻮﻘﻋ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﻊﻣ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ

.ﺕﺎﻀﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻢﺘﻳ

ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻠﻟ ﻪﻴﻓ ﻦﻜﳝ ﺮﺧﺁ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻫ ﺔﺟﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﻖﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ

ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﳌﺍ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .(8 ﺭﺎـﻃﻹﺍ)

ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﺇ ﺕﺎﻴﻟﺁ ﺭﻮﻬﻇ ﻦﻋ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ

.ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺪﻳﺪﲢ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ

ﺕﺎﻛﺍﺮﺷ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﺷ - ﺕﺍﺭﺩﺎﺒﻣ ﺓﺪﻋ ﻡﻮﻘﺗﻭ

ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻩﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻛ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺤﻠﻟ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻒﻴﻛ ﻉﻼﻄﺘﺳﺎﺑ -

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻫﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗﻭ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻚﻟﺬﺑﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﺪﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻤﺸﺗﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺭﺎﻃﺇ :ﺬﻴﻔﻨﺗﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﻃﻭ ﺔﻴﺠﻴﺗﺍﺮﺘﺳﺇ ﻊﺿﻭ

ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇﻦﻋﻢﺠﻨﺗﻲﺘﻟﺍﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

،ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﻲﻌﺟﺮﻣ ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳﻭ ،ﺎﻫﺭﻮﻫﺪﺗﻭ

.ﻖﻘﺤﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺮﻳﺭﺎﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻊﻓﺭﻭ ﺪﺻﺮﻠﻟ ﻡﺎﻈﻧﻭ

ﺩﻮﻬﺟ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻪﻴﺟﻮﺗ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ

ﻦﻣ) ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﻲﺿﺍﺭﻷﺍ ﺔﺣﻼﻓ ﺕﺎﺳﺭﺎﳑ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﺣ ﻝﻼﺧ

ﻥﺎﻤﻀﻟ ﺔﻳﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﻲﻫﻭ - (ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﺽﺍﺭﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺣﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﻞﻳﻮﲢ ﻡﺪﻋ

ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﺤﻣﻭ ﺔﻴﺋﺍﺬﻐﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﺻﺎﶈﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﻹ

ﺔﻣﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻄﻟﺍ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﻲﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺒﻟﺍ

،ﺕﺎﺑﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻲﻫ ﺎﳑ ﹰﺎﺠﻀﻧ ﻞﻗﺃ

ﺔﻌﺑﺎﺘﳌﺍﻭ ﺪﺻﺮﻟﺍ ﻞﻛﺎﺸﻣ ﻞﺣ ﻡﺯﻼﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﻮﺤﻧ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳﻭ .(8 ﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ

ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻊﻴﺠﺸﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﺒﻳﺮﲡ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺑ ﻊﺿﻭ ﻊﻳﺮﺳ

ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﺐﻠﺟﻭ ،ﺎﻬﺘﻣﺍﺪﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺔﻋﺍﺭﺰﻟﺍ ﺔﻧﻭﺮﻣ

ﺎﻤﻬﻴﻠﻛ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺮﻘﺘﻓﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻜﺘﺑﻻﺍﻭ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

95 .ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﻲﻓ

ﻢﻬﺴﻳ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺭﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺮﺒﺘﻌﻳ ،ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻞﺧﺍﺩ

ﻖﻠﺧ :ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻫﻷﺍ ﻢﺳﺎﺣ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻪﺑ

ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﲟ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ

ﻭﺃ ﺐﺋﺍﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻢﻋﺪﻟﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ

ﺢﺋﺍﻮﻠﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻯﻮﺼﻘﻟﺍ ﺩﻭﺪﳊﺍ

ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇﻭ ،(ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﻝﻮﲢ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻕﻮﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻗﺎﻔﺧﺇ ﺔﻟﺍﺯﺇﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻋﻮﺘﻟﺍﻭ

ﻢﻈﻌﻣ ﻲﺗﺄﻴﺳ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﻹﺎﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺩ

ﻦﻣ ﺎﻤﻴﺳﻻﻭ ،ﺹﺎـﳋﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑﻭ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻊﻣ ﻒ ﹼﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ

ﲔﺴﲢ ﻲﻓ ﺡﺎﺠﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺪﻘﺘﻋﺃﻭ .ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻳﺎﻤﳊ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺱﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﺬﺨﺘﻳ

ﻢﻬﻨﻜﳝ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻝﺎﻔﻃﻷﺎﻓ .ﺪﺣﺍﻭ ﻖﻳﺮﻔﻛ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻝﻼﺧ ﻦﻣ ﻻﺇ ﻖﻘﺤﺘﻳ ﻻ ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﺿﻭﺃ

ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﺍ ﻢﻬﻴﻠﻋﻭ ﻡﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﳉﺍ ﻢﻬﻧﻷ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﺴﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻡﺎﻤﻀﻧﻻﺍ

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺳ 8 ﺮﻤﻌﻟﺍ ،ﲔﺼﻟﺍ ،ﻦﻳ ﻦﺴﺗ ﻭﻻ ﻥﺎﻳﺭﺩﺃ -

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 26

.ﻢﻬﻟ ﹰﺍﺰﻨﻛ ﺔﻴﻌﻴﺒﻄﻟﺍ


27 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

.(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ)

ﺭﻻﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺎﺑ ﻑﹼﺮﻌﺗ .4

.ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷﺍ

ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ،ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ .5

ﻦﻃﺎﻐﻴﻏ 6-4 ﻊﻗﺍﻮﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻲﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺞﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﺀﻮﺿ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ (ﻦﻃ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ)

ﺔﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺝﺎﺘﻧﺇ ﻲﻋﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﻞﺛﺎﳑ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻦﻜﻤﳌﺍ ﻦﻣﻭ .(IAEA 2008e)

ﺮﻈﻧﺃ .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺎﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻉﺎﻄﻗ ﻲﻓ

Mills 2009 http://cx.lbl.gov/ ﻝﺎﺜﳌﺍ ﻞﻴﺒﺳ ﻰﻠﻋ

documents/2009-assessment/LBNL-Cx-Cost-

/ﻮﻴﻟﻮﻳ 24 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ) ،Benefit-Pres.pdf

.(2009 ﺯﻮﲤ

.World Bank 2009b .6

.de la Torre, Fjanzylber, and Nash 2008 .7

ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ .8

ﻦﻜﳝﻭ .ﺓﺭﺍﺮـ ـﳊﺍ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻔﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﺪــﻗ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ

ﻚﻠﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﻞﻤﺠﻣ ﻦﻋ ﺏﺍﺮﻋﻺﻟ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻣ ﺎﻬﻟﺩﺎﻌﻳ ﺎﲟ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺚﻴﺣ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ

ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺓﺭﺪﻘﻟﺍ ﻪﻟ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ

.ﺓﺩﺪﺤﻣ ﺔﻴﻨﻣﺯ ﺓﺪﻣ ﻥﻮﻀﻏ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺴﻔﻧ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ

ﺓﺍﺩﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ،ﲔﻔﻟﺆﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﺎﺴﺣ .9

ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ .(WRI2008) ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺷﺆﻣ

ﺓﺮﻴﻐﺻ ﺔﻳﺮﻳﺰﺟ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﲔﻤﻀﺗ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ

ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻦﻃ 4.6) ﺱﻭﺩﺎﺑﺮﺑ ﻞﺜﻣ

ﻞﺜﻣ ﻂﻔﻨﻠﻟ ﺔﺠﺘﻨﻣ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑﻭ (ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻨﻃ 55) ﺮﻄﻗ

ﹰﺎﻨﻃ 39) ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺑﺮﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻣﻹﺍ ﻭﺃ (ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ

.(ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ

.IEA2008c .10

؛Edmonds and others 2008 ﲔﺒﹸﻳ ﹼ ﺎﻤﻛ .11

Blandford, Richels, and ﻭ ؛Hamilton 2009 ﻭ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻥﻼﻋﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻭ Rutherford 2008

ﺺﻴﻠﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﻤﻋﺃ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﻃﺍﺮﺨﻧﺍ ﺦﻳﺭﺎﺗ ﻦﻋ ﹰﺎﻘﺒﺴﻣ

ﻥﺃ ﺓﺮ ﹼﻤﻌﻣ ﻝﻮﺻﺃ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻳﺮﻤﺜﺘﺴﻤﻠﻟ ﻞ ﹼﻬﺴﻳ ﻚﻟﺫ ﻥﻷ

ﹰﻼﺒﻘﺘﺴﻣ ﺔﻠﻤﺘﶈﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺍﻭﺬﺧﺄﻳ

ﺕﺎﻴﻤﻛ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻲﻓﻭ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻴﻈﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺢﺋﺍﻮﻠﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻞﻠﻘﻳ ﺎﻣ ﻚﻟﺫﻭ ،ﺎﻬﺼﻴﻠﻘﺗ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ

.ﺓﺰﺠﺘﶈﺍ ﻝﻮﺻﻷﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣﺍﺰﺘﻟﺍ ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺷ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺯﻷﺍ .12

ﺔﻠﺛﺎﳑ ﺵﺎﻌﺘﻧﺍ ﺕﺎﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﺎﻬﻌﺒﺘﺗﻭ ﺓﺪﳌﺍ ﺲﻔﻨﻟ ﻡﻭﺪﺗﻭ

ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 5) ﺓﺪﺷ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﺎﻣ ﺓﺩﺎﻋ ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻣ

IMF 2009, (ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ

ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻛﺮﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣﻭ.table 3.1

ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ ﻦﻣ ﻒﺼﻧﻭ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺳ ﺙﻼﺛ ﻯﻮﺳ ﻡﺪﻳ ﻢﻟ

ﺐﺘﻜﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ ﺓﺪﻋﺎﻗ) .1933 ﺭﺍﺫﺁ/ﺱﺭﺎﻣ ﻰﺘﺣ 1929

ﺵﺎﻤﻜﻧﺍﻭ ﻊﺳﻮﺗ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻠﻟ ﻲﻨﻃﻮﻟﺍ

http://www.nber.org/cycles. ﻝﺎﻤﻋﻷﺍ ﺔﻄﺸﻧﺃ ﺓﺭﻭﺩ

.2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ ،html

.Mathews and Caldeira 2008 .13

.Schaeffer and others 2008 .14

ﹰﺎﻴﺧﺎﻨﻣ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﻐﺗ ﻞ ﹼﻜﺸﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺔﻟﺄﺴﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻣﻭ .15

ﺰﺟﺍﻮﻣ ﻥﺈﻓ ،ﺔﻳﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﹰﺎﻣﺎﻜﺣﺃ ﺐﻠﻄﺘﺗ ﹰﺍﺮﻴﻄﺧ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺓﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﺙﻮﺤﺒﻟﺍ

ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﺗ (IPCC) ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ

ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻮﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﻦﻋ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻔﻳ ﺎﲟ

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺩﺎﺣ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺔﻤﺋﺎﻗ

ﺪﻴﻴﻘﺗ ﻦﻋ ﻢﺠﻨﺗ ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﻊﻓﺎﻨﳌﺍ" ﻥﺃ ﺚﻴﺤﺑ ،ﺮﻃﺎﺍ

ﻭ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ 1.6 ﲔﺑ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺕﺎﺟﺭﺩ

ﺔﻋﺎﺒﻃ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻪﻴﻓ ﺃﺪﺒﺗ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺖﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺖﻃﺮﺨﻧﺍ ،ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ

ﺔﻳﺎﻋﺮﺑ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﻣ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻦﻣ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻚﻠﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺪﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ .ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎـﻣﺯﻷﺍ ﺪﺷﺃ ﻯﺪﺣﺇ ﻦﻣ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﻌﺗ

.ﺓﺮﻴﺧﻷﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﻮﻘﻋ ﻲﻓ ﺎﻬﺗﺪﻬﺷ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﻻﺍﻭ ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﺑﻮﻌﺻ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ

ﺕﺎﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺐﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﻞﻌﲡ ﺪﻗ ﺔﻠﺟﺎﻌﻟﺍ

ﺎﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﺇ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺔﻘﻓﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﻌﻳﺮﺸﺘﻟﺍ

.ﺪﻴﻌﺒﻟﺍ ﺪﻣﻷﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺍﺮﻄﺧ ﹰﺄﻄﺧ ﺮﺒﺘﻌ ﹸﻣ ﻮﻫ

ﻦﻣﺕﺎﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍﻦﻣﺩﺪﻋ ﺪﻤﺘﻋﺍﻦﻜﻟﻭ

ﺵﺎﻌﺘﻧﻻﺍ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﺽﺍﺮﻏﻷ ﺔﻣﺎﻋ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻣ ﺕﺍﺀﺍﺮﺟﺇ

،ﻮﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺵﺎﻌﻧﺇ ﻊﻣ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﺮﻴﻀﺨﺗ ﻑﺪﻬﺘﺴﺗ

ﺎﻣ ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻌﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻪﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﻎﻠﺑ ﺎﲟ

ﺓﺮﺘﻓ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 400 ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺰﻳ

ﺰﻔﺣ ﻞﻣﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ،ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻴﻠﻘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺎﻓ 96 .ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻓ ﻖﻠﺧﻭ ﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﻦﻜﳝ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻲﻓ

ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻭ ﺓﺩﺎﻳﺯ :ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﺛﻼﺛ ﺐﺳﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻔﺴﺗ ﻥﺃ

ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ

ﻞﻤﻌﻟﺍ ﺹﺮﻓ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻖﻠﺧﻭ ،ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ

ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﻷ -

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﺜﻛ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﺎﻣ ﹰﺎﺒﻟﺎﻏ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻋ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺔﻠﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻱﺪﻳﻸﻟ

.ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ

ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ،ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺔﻳﺭﺎﳉﺍ ﺕﺎﺿﻭﺎﻔﳌﺍ

ﻥﻮﻧﺎﻛ/ﺮﺒﻤﺴﻳﺩ ﻲﻓ ﻦﻏﺎﻬﻨﺑﻮﻛ ﺮﲤﺆﲟ ﺝﻮﺘﺘﺳ

ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻟﺍ - ﹰﺎﺌﻴﻄﺑ ﹰﺎﻣﺪﻘﺗ ﺯﺮﲢ ،2009 ﻝﻭﻷﺍ

ﺏﺎﺒﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻛ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻤﻓ .ﺔﻴﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺮﺋﺍﻭﺪﻟﺍ

ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻟﺍ - ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻨ ﹼﻴﺒﹸﳌﺍ

،ﺔﻴﺳﺎﺳﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻜﺴﻟﺍﻭ ،ﻲﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻤﺘﺟﻻﺍ ﺔـﻤـﻈـﻧﻷﺍ ﻲ ـﻓ ﻥﻮـﻜـﺴـﻟﺍﻭ

ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻞﺻﻮﺘﻟﺍ ﻱﺭﻭﺮﻀﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ - ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍﻭ

ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ ﻪﻨﻜﻟﻭ .ﻞﺟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺐﻳﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻥﺄﺸﺑ

ﺔﻌﻓﺍﺪﻟﺍ ﺰﻓﺍﻮﳊﺍ ﻖﻠﺨﻳ ﹰﺎﻴﻛﺫ ﹰﺎﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ

ﺕﺎﻘﻓﺪﺗﻭ ،ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻤﺴﺘﳌﺍ ﻝﻮﻠﳊﺍ :ﻦﻣ ﻞﻜﻟ

.ﺓﺪﻳﺪﺟ ﺕﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺮﻳﻮﻄﺗﻭ ،ﺔﻴﻠﻳﻮﻤﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ

ﹰﺎﻔﺼﻨﻣﻭ ﹰﻻﺩﺎـﻋ ﹰﺎﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﻤﻛ

.ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﺣﻮﻤﻃﻭ ﺕﺎﺟﺎﻴﺘﺣﺎﺑ ﻲﻔﻳ

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻖﻠﺧ ﻪﻨﻜﳝ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺣﻮﻟﺍ ﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﻮﻫ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ

.ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻠﻤﻋ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺢﻴﺤﺼﻟﺍ

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﺘﺧ ﻲﺷﺍﻮﺣ

1.25 ﻰﻠﻋ ﺶﻴﻌﻟﺍ ﻪﻧﺄﺑ ﻊﻗﺪﹸﳌﺍ ﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﻑﹼﺮﻌﹸﻳ .1

Chen and Ravallion .ﻡﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻭﺃ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ

.2008

.FAO 2009b .2

ﺔﻳﺭﺎﻃﻹﺍ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﱈﻷﺍ ﺔﻴﻗﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻦﻣ 2 ﺓﺩﺎﳌﺍ .3

ﻰﻟﺇ ﻮﻋﺪﺗ (UNFCCC) ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮ ﹼﻴﻐﺘﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ

ﻲﻓ ﻱﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺱﺎﺒﺘﺣﻼﻟ ﺔﺒﺒﺴﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺗ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺗ

ﺕﻼﺧﺪﺗ ﻊﻨﻣ" ﻪﻧﺄﺷ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﻱﻮﳉﺍ ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ

http:// ."ﻲﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻡﺎﻈﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺓﺮﻴﻄﳋﺍ ﻥﺎﺴﻧﻹﺍ

،unfccc.int/resource/docs/convkp/conveng.pdf


ﻊﻣ .Tol (2008) ﻭ ،Smith and others (2009) ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ

ﺎﳑ ﻞﻗﺃ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻪﻳﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ

ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺧ ﺔﻤﻴﻗ ﺭﺎﺒﺘﻋﻻﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺬﺧﺄﺗ ﻻ ﺎﻬﻧﻷ ﻲﻐﺒﻨﻳ

ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ .ﺔﻌﺋﺎﻀﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍ

ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﺪﻗ ﺕﺎﻳﺩﻭﺪﶈ ﺔﺸﻗﺎﻨﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻉﻼﻃﻼﻟ 1

.ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺛﻵﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﺱﺎﻴﻗ ﻰﻠﻋ

ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑ ﻊﻣ ﺕﺍﺭﻭﺎﺸﳌﺍ ﺀﺎﻨﺛﺃ ﻪﻳﻮﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻚﻟﺫ ﰎ .27

.ﺔﻴﻨﻴﺗﻼﻟﺍ ﺎﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﻕﺮﺷ

Barbera and McConnell 1990; Barrett .28

2003; Burtraw and others 2005; Jaffe and others

.1995; Meyer 1995

.Hope 2009; Nordhaus 2008 .29

.Nordhaus 2008 .30

ﻦﻣ ﺮﻛﺬﻳ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻒﻴﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ ﻦﻤﻀﺘﻳ ﻻ .31

de Burin, Dellink and Agrawala ﺮﻈﻧﺃ .ﺝﺫﺎﻤﻨﻟﺍ

.ﺔﺸﻗﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻉﻼﻃﻼﻟ (2009)

ﻮﻫﻭ .Nordhaus 2008, p.86, Figure 5.3 .32

ﺪﻨﻋ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺘﻟ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺪﺟﻭ

ﻞﺜﻣﻷﺍ ﻑﺪﻬﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺑ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ

ﻲﻓ 0.3 ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ 3.5 ﺪﻨﻋ ﻪﻌﺿﻭ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ

ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍﻭ .ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ

ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪﺑ ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ 2.5 ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺔﻴﻓﺎﺿﻹﺍ

.ﹰﺎﻳﻮﻨﺳ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 0.1 ﻦﻣ ﻞﻗﺃ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ

ﻮﻫ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻠﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ .33

ﻚﻟﺫ ﻲﻓ ﺎﲟ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﺇ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 1.5

ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻨﺜﺘﺳﺍ ﻊﻣ ﺔﺤﺼﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﲔﻣﺄﺘﻟﺍ

.Swiss Re (2007) .ﺓﺎﻴﳊﺍ

ﻲﻟﺎﻤﺟﻹ Maddison ﺕﺎﻌﻗﻮﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ .34

http://www.ggdc./ ،2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻠﶈﺍ ﰋﺎﻨﻟﺍ

ﺭﺎﻳﺃ/ﻮﻳﺎﻣ 6 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ) net/maddison

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺭﻻﻭﺪﻟﺎﺑ ﺎﻬﳝﻮﻘﺗ ﺓﺩﺎﻋﺇ ﻊﻣ (2009

.ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻚﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺪﻤﺘﻌﳌﺍ ﺶﻴﻤﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻣﺎﻌﻣ

ﻲﺋﺎﻬﻨﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﺻﻹﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻪﺜﻳﺪﲢ ﻢﺘﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ .35

.World Bank 2009c ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ

.Adger and others 2009 .36

.IPCC 2001 .37

ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﺍﺬﻫ .Mignone and others 2008 .38

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻴﺟ ﺔﺳﺪﻨﻫ ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺗ ﺩﻮﺟﻭ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺪﻨﻋ

.(7 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ) ﺔﻟﺎﻌﻓﻭ ﺔﻟﻮﺒﻘﻣ

ﻢﺠﳊﺍ ﺕﺍﺭﻮﻓﻭ ﻦﻋ ﹰﺎﻤﺟﺎﻧ ﺍﺬﻫ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ ﻥﺃ ﻦﻜﳝ .39

:ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﻝﺎﳊﺍ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺎﻤﻠﺜﻣ) ﺎﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻨﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﺣﺎﺗﺇ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﻴﻀﻗ ﻪﻧﺃ ﻭﺪﺒﻳﻭ ﻲﺴﻧﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﻱﻭﻮﻨﻟﺍ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺒﻠﻟ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﺑ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻟﻮﺗ ﺰ ﹼﻛﺮﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ ﺔﻠﻜﺸﻣﻭ

ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺒﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ) ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺸﻟﺍ ﺮـﺛﺃﻭ ،(ﺲﻤﺸﻟﺍ

ﻭﺃ ،(ﺔﻳﺪﻳﺪﺣ ﻚﻜﺳ ﻂﺧ ﻭﺃ ﻲﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﻖﻳﺮﻃ ﺪﻴﻴﺸﺗ

ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺮﻘﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻘﺑﻭ ﺍﺬﻫ .ﺔﻴﻓﺍﺮﻏﻮﳝﺪﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺪﺼﻟﺍ

.Shalizi and Lecocq 2009 ﻰﻟﺇ

.Shalizi and Lecocq 2009 .40

.Folger 2006; Levin and others 2007 .41

Anderer and others 1981 as cited in Ha- .42

.Duong, Grubb, and Hourcade 1997

Davis and Owens 2003; IEA 2008a; .43

Nemet and Kammen 2007; Scientific Expert

Group on Climate Change (SEG) 2007; Stern

.2007

.Repetto 2008 .44

.Stern 2007 Part VI .45

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺪﺨﺘﺴﻣ ﻎﻴﺻ ﻰــﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎـﻨـﺘـﺳﺍ .46

.Nordhaus 2008

ﺢﻴﺤﺻ ﻢﻗﺭ ﺏﺮﻗﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﺑﹼﺮﻘﻣ ﻢﻴﻗ ﻩﺬﻫ .47

2010 ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺗ 28

IPCC ؛Fisher and others 2007) "ﺔﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ 2.6

.(Parry and others 2007 ؛IPCC 2007c ؛2007b

ﺪﻧﺎﺴﺗ ﺪﻬﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﺜﻳﺪﳊﺍ ﺔﻴﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﺒﻄﳌﺍ ﻥﺃ ﺎﻤﻛ

ﺎﻣ ﺏﺮﻗﺃ ﺢﺒﺼﻴﻟ ﻮﳉﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﺿ ﺓﺮﻜﻓ

ﺓﺭﺍﺮﳊﺍ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻓ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻯﻮﺘﺴﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﻥﻮﻜﻳ

Science Focus;) ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ ﻞﺒﻗ ﺓﺪﺋﺎﺴﻟﺍ

ﺞﺘﻨﺘﺳﺍﻭ .(Mann 2009; Smith and others 2009

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﻲﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﻲﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ ﺮﲤﺆﳌﺍ ﻮﻤﻈﻨﻣ

ﻥﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺪﻳﺍﺰﺘﻣ ﻕﺎﻔﺗﺍ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ" ﻥﺃ 2009 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﹰﺍﺪﺟ ﺐﻌﺼﻴﺳ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻕﻮﻔﻳ ﺎﲟ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﻻﺍ

ﺔﻴﺟﻮﻟﻮﻜﻳﻹﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻈﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﺓﺮﺻﺎﻌﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻌﻤﺘﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ

http://climatecongress.ku.dk/ ."ﻪﻠ ﹼﻤﲢ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ

ﺎﻣﺃ .(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ)

ﺪﻳﺰﻳ ﺭﺍﺮﺘﺣﺎﺑ ﺡﺎﻤﺴﻟﺍ ﻡﺪﻌﻟ ﻥﻮﻋﺪﻳ ﻦﻳﺬﻟﺍ ﻥﻭﺮﺧﻵﺍ

European Com- :ﻥﻮﻠﻤﺸﻴﻓ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻰﻠﻋ

Scientific Expert Group on Cli- ؛mission 2007

International Scien- ؛mate Change (SEG) 2007

ﺓﺩﺎﻗ ﻥﺄﺑ ﹰﺎﻤﻠﻋ .tific Steering Committee 2005

ﻲﺑﻭﺭﻭﻷﺍ ﺩﺎﲢﻻﺍﻭ ﲔﺼﻟﺍﻭ ﺍﺪﻨﻛﻭ ﻞﻳﺯﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﺎﻴﻟﺍﺮﺘﺳﺃ

ﻥﺎﺑﺎﻴﻟﺍﻭ ﺎﻴﻟﺎﻄﻳﺇﻭ ﺎﻴﺴﻴﻧﻭﺪﻧﺇﻭ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍﻭ ﺎﻴﻧﺎﳌﺃﻭ ﺎﺴﻧﺮﻓﻭ

ﻲﺳﻭﺮﻟﺍ ﺩﺎــﲢﻻﺍﻭ ﻚﻴﺴﻜﳌﺍﻭ ﺎﻳﺭﻮﻛ ﺔﻳﺭﻮﻬﻤﺟﻭ

ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍﻭ ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻜﻠﻤﳌﺍﻭ ﺎﻴﻘﻳﺮﻓﺃ ﺏﻮﻨﺟﻭ

ﻲﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺮﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ ﻯﺪﺘﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻌﻤﺘﺍ

ﻱﺃﺮﻟﺍ" ﺍﻭﺮﻗﺃ 2009 ﺯﻮﲤ/ﻮﻴﻟﻮﻳ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺎﺑ

ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﺩﺎﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺯﻭﺎﲡ ﻡﺪﻋ ﺓﺭﻭﺮﻀﺑ ﻞﺋﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻤﻠﻌﻟﺍ

ﻞﺒﻗ ﺖﻧﺎﻛ ﺎﻤﻋ ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﺍﺮﺣ ﺔﺟﺭﺩ

http://usclimatenetwork.org/ ."ﺔﻴﻋﺎﻨﺼﻟﺍ ﺓﺭﻮﺜﻟﺍ

،resource-database/MEF_Declarationl-0.pdf

.(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ)

.IPCC 2007c .16

.Raupach and others 2007 .17

Lawrence and others 2008; Matthews and .18

,Keith 2007; Parry and others 2008; Scheffer

Brovkin, and Cox 2006; Torn and Harte 2006;

.Walter and others 2006

.Horton and others 2008 .19

ﺓﺪﺣ ﺩﺎـﻳﺩﺯﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺘﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓ ﻞﺧﺪﻳ ﻻ .20

ﺔﻄﺸﻧﻷﺍﻭ ﻥﺎﻜﺴﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺮﺼﺘﻘﺗ ﻞﺑ ﻒﺻﺍﻮﻌﻟﺍ

ﻢﺘﻳ ﻢﻟ ﺎﻣﻭ ،ﺔﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ ﻲﻓﻭ .ﹰﺎﻴﻟﺎﺣ ﺔﻳﺩﺎﺼﺘﻗﻻﺍ

ﻥﻮﻜﺗ ﻥﺃ ﺢ ﹼﺟﺮﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ،ﻕﺎﻄﻨﻟﺍ ﻊﺳﺍﻭ ﻞﻳﺪﻌﺘﺑ ﻡﺎﻴﻘﻟﺍ

Dasgupta and .ﺐﺠﻳ ﺎﳑ ﻞﻗﺃ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻡﺎﻗﺭﻷﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ

.others 2009

.Stern 2007 .21

Easterlings and others 2007, Table 5.6, .22

.p299

.Parry and others 2007, able TS3, p66 .23

(Stern 2007) .Nordhaus and Boyer 2000 .24

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟ ﺔﺒﺣﺎﺼﳌﺍ ﺮﺋﺎﺴﳋﺍ ﻥﺃ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺎﻀﻳﺃ ﺺﻠﺨﻳ

ﺮﻴﺜﻜﺑ ﺮﺒﻛﺃ ﺎﻴﺳﺁ ﻕﺮﺷ ﺏﻮﻨﺟﻭ ﺪﻨﻬﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﻮﻜﺘﺳ

.ﻲﳌﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ

Nordhaus 2008; Stern 2007; Yohe and .25

.others 2007, figure 20.3

ﺽﺍﺮﻌﺘﺳﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻡﺪﺨﹸﺘﺳﺍ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ PAGE ﺝﺫﻮﳕ .26

ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻲﻄﻌﻳ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻐﺘﻟ Stern

ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺎﻬﻠﻤﺤﺘﺘﺳ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺗ

ﻊﻳﺯﻮﺗ ﻦﻣ ﺪﻳﺰﳌﺍ ﻊﻣ Hope (2009) ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 80

(Nordhaus and ﺝﺫﻮﳕ .ﲔﻔﻟﺆﳌﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺒﻟﺍ

de Bruin,ﻪﻠ ﹼﺼﻔﻳ ﺎﻤﺒﺴﺣ ،Boyer 2000) RICE

ﻞ ﹼﻤﺤﺘﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﻳ Dellink and Argawala (2009)

ﺮﻈﻧﺃ .ﺭﺍﺮﺿﻷﺍ ﻉﺎﺑﺭﺃ ﺔﺛﻼﺛ ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ


29 ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﺟﺃ ﻦﻣ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ :ﻡﺎﻋ ﺽﺮﻋ

ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻼﻟ ﺔﻴﻌﺟﺍﺮﺗ ﺔﻟﺩﺎﻌﻣ ﺕﺎﻴﻘﺒﺘﻣ

ﻚﻠﺘﻟ ﻲﻌﺟﺍﺮﺘﻟﺍ ﻞﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺎﺑﻭ .ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ

ﺔﻧﻭﺮﳌﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ،ﻦﻳﺰﻨﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻰﻠﻋ ﺕﺎﻴﻘﺒﺘﳌﺍ

ﻱﺩﺆﺗ ﺕﺎﻗﻭﺮﶈﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﺔﻔﻋﺎﻀﻣ ﻥﺃ ﻲﻨﻌﻳ ﺍﺬﻫﻭ ،0.5 -

،ﻒﺼﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺕﺍﺯﺎﻐﻟﺍ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ ﻰﻟﺇ

.ﹰﺎﺘﺑﺎﺛ ﺩﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﺑ ﻞﺧﺪﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﻘﺑﺇ ﻊﻣ

ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﺃ ﻂﺳﻮﺘﻣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ .62

ﻦﻣ 2007-2006 ﺓﺮﺘﻔﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻟﺰﻨﳌﺍ ﻙﻼﻬﺘﺳﻼﻟ

http://www.) ﺔﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﻷﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻠﻌﻣ ﺔﺌﻴﻫ

،eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/elecprih.html

.(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ

،ﺔﻴﻟﻭﺪﻟﺍ ﺩﺭﺍﻮﳌﺍ ﺪﻬﻌﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺕﺎﻧﺎﻴﺑ .63

.WRI (2008) ﺔﻴﺧﺎﻨﳌﺍ ﺕﻼﻴﻠﺤﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﺷﺆﻣ ﺓﺍﺩﺃ

ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻟﺍ ﺮﻳﺮﻘﺘﻟﺍ .IEA 2008d; UNEP 2008 .64

EEA) ﺔﻴﺑﻭﺭﻭﻷﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﻟﺎﻛﻭ ﻦﻋ 2004 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻲـﺑﻭﺭﻭﻷﺍ ﻲﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﻢﻋﺪﻠﻟ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻦ ﹼﻤﻀﺗ (2004

،2001 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻭﺭﻮﻳ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 30 ﺖﻐﻠﺑ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷ

ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﳌ ﻲﻗﺎﺒﻟﺍﻭ ﻱﺭﻮﻔﺣﻷﺍ ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻠﻟ ﻥﺎﺜﻠﺛ

.ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍﻭ ﺔﻳﻭﻮﻨﻟﺍ

http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international .65

(2009 ﺯﻮﲤ/ﻮﻴﻟﻮﻳ ﻲﻓ ﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ) /elecprih.html

.Price and Worrel 2006 .66

.ESMAP 2006 .67

http://co2captureandstorage.info/index. .68

.(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ 1 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ) htm

Calvin and others forthcoming; IEA .69

.2008a

Gurgel, Reilly, and Paltsev 2008; IEA .70

.2006; Wise and others 2009

NRC 2007; Tilman, Hill, and Lehman .71

.2006; WBGU 2009

.IEA 2008c; IEA 2008d .72

.OECD 2008 .73

Lotze-Campen and others 2009; Wise .74

ﻰﻠﻋ ﻉﻼﻃﻼﻟ 3 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ ،and others 2009

.ﺔﺸﻗﺎﻨﳌﺍ

.Scherr and McNeely 2008 .75

ﻑﻼﻐﻟﺍ ﲔﺟﻭﺮﺘﻴﻧ ﺖﺒﺜﺗ ﺔﻴﻟﻮﻘﺒﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺠﺷﻷﺍ .76

ﻲﻓﻭ ﺔﺘﺒﻨﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﻳﺬﻐﳌﺍ ﻞﻤﺣ ﺯﺰﻌﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﻱﻮـﳉﺍ

.ﺔﺑﺮﺘﻟﺍ

.McNeely and Scherr 2003 .77

.World Bank 2007b .78

.Milly and others 2008 .79

Fay, Block, and Ebinger 2009; Ligeti, .80

Penney, and Wieditz 2007; The Heinz Center

.2007

.Lempert and Schlesinger 2000 .81

.Keller, Yohe, and Schlesinger 2008 .82

Cass 2005; Davenport 2008; Dolsak .83

.2001; Kunkel, Jacob, and Busch 2006

.Alber and Kern 2008 .84

Guth, Schmittberger, and Schwarze .85

1982; Camerer and Thaler 1995; Irwin 2008;

.Ruffle 1998

The Times of India http://timesofindia. .86

indiatimes.com/NEWS/India/Even-in-2031-

Indias-per-capita-emission-will-be-1/7th-of-

ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ) US/articleshow/4717472.cms

.(2009 ﺏﺁ/ﺲﻄﺴﻏﺃ

.Dechezlepretre and others 2008 .87

ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻴﻨﻌﳌﺍ ﺔﺌﻴﻬﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ :ﻰﻟﺇ ﹰﺍﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍ

ﺩﻭﺪﺣ ﻲﻓ ﺭﺎﻌﺳﻷﺍ ﻥﺄﺑ ﺕﺎﻣﻮﻜﳊﺍ ﲔﺑ ﺔﻛﺮﺘﺸﳌﺍ

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﺪﺣﺍﻮﻟﺍ ﻦﻄﻠﻟ ﹰﺎﻴﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﹰﺍﺭﻻﻭﺩ 50

ﻦﻣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 65 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ ﺙﺪﲢ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ

ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

Baker and others ﻲﻓ 3-11 ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ) 2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ

McKinsey Global Institute ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ .(2007a

ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳ ﺪﻨﻋ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 68 ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺍ ﻩﺬﻬﻟ (2009b)

ﺺﻴﺼﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ ﻚﻟﺫ ﰎ ﺍﺫﺇ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 450

ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻ ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻞﻗﺃ ﻥﺃ ﺎﲟﻭ .ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺗ ﻞﻗﺃ ﺐﺴﺣ

ﻲﻓ ﺙﺪﲢ 2030 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﹰﺎﻴﳌﺎﻋ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﻻﺍ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺗ

ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 67-44 ﺎﻬﺗﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻎﻠﺒﺗ ،ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ

56 ؛Message ﺐﺴﺣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 44) 1 ﻝﻭﺪﳉﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ

ﺐﺴﺣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 66 ؛McKinsey ﺐﺴﺣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ

ﻦﻣ (IEA ETP ﺐﺴﺣ ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 67 ﻭ ؛MiniCAM

ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 450 ﻎﻠﺒﻳ ﺰﻛﺮﺗ ﻞﺟﺃ

ﻡﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺎﺑ) ﻥﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺭﺍﺪﻣ ﻰﻠﻋﻭ .ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ

ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻰﺘﺣ ﺕﺍﺭﺎﻤﺜﺘﺳﻻﺍ ﺔﻓﺎﻜﻟ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ

ﻰﻠﻋﺃ ﺔﻴﻣﺎﻨﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺒﻟﺍ ﺔﺼﺣ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ﻥﻮﻜﺗ (2100

Edmonds and) ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 66 ﲔﺑ ﺡﻭﺍﺮﺘﺗ ﻲﻫﻭ ،ﹰﻼﻴﻠﻗ

.(Hope 2009) ﺔﺋﺎﳌﺍ ﻲﻓ 71 ﻭ (others 2008

.Edmonds and others 2008 .48

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﳌﺎﺑ ﺀﻱﺰﺟ 450-425 ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺴﻟ ﺔﺒﺴﻨﻟﺎﺑ .49

ﺪﻨﻋ ﺖﻴﺒﺜﺘﻟﺍ ﻭﺃ ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﺴﻛﺃ ﻲﻧﺎﺛ ﺊﻓﺎﻜﻣ ﻦﻣ

IIASA 2009 ﺔﻔﻠﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗ ،ﲔﺘﻳﻮﺌﻣ ﲔﺘﺟﺭﺩ

Knopf and oth- ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗﻭ ،ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 4 ﻲﻫ

ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗﻭ ،ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 6 ﻲﻫ (ﻊﺒﻄﻟﺍ ﺪﻴﻗ) ers

ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 9 ﻲﻫ Edmonds and others (2008)

ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 11 ﻲﻫ Nordhaus (2008) ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗﻭ ،ﺭﻻﻭﺩ

.ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﻥﻮﻴﻠﻳﺮﺗ 25 ﻲﻫ Hope (2009) ﺕﺍﺮﻳﺪﻘﺗﻭ ،ﺭﻻﻭﺩ

ﺓﺮﻴﺒﻜﻟﺍ ﻕﻭﺮﻔﻟﺍﻭ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﺔﻤﻴﻘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓﺎﺼﺑ ﺎﻬﻌﻴﻤﺟﻭ

ﻢﺴﳊﺍ ﺮﻌﺳ ﻑﻼﺘﺧﺍ ﻦﻋ ﺮﻴﺒﻛ ﺪﺣ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺔﻤﺟﺎﻧ ﺎﻬﻨﻴﺑ

ﻮﻳﺭﺎﻨﻴﺳ ﻞﻀﻓﺃ ﻝﻭﺃ ﻢﻬﻌﻴﻤﺟ ﻊﺒﺘﻳﻭ .ﻡﺪﺨﺘﺴﳌﺍ

ﺮﺜﻛﻷﺍ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺎﻤﻠﻛﻭ ﺎﻤﻨﻳﺃ ﺾﻴﻔﺨﺘﻟﺍ ﺙﺪﺤﻳ ﺚﻴﺣ

.ﻒﻴﻟﺎﻜﺘﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﻌﻓ

.Hamilton 2009 .50

http://sci- ،ﹰﺎﻤﺳﺍ ﻂﻌﻳ ﻢﻟ ﻱﺬﻟﺍ ﺭﺎﺼﻋﻹﺍ .51

ence.nasa.gov/headlines/y2004/02apr_hurri-

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ﻦﻣ ﺮﺜﻛﺃ ﻎﻠﺑ 2007 ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻭﺭﻮﻴﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻄﻨﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﺮﺘﻠﻟ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ 1.54) ﺓﺪﺤﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﺎﻳﻻﻮﻟﺍ ﻲﻓ ﻥﺎﻛ ﺎﻣ ﻲﻔﻌﺿ

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.(2009 ﺯﻮﲤ/ﻮﻴﻟﻮﻳ 6 ﻲﻓ ﺓﺀﺍﺮﻘﻟﺍ ﺐﺴﺣ)

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.(2009 ﺏﺁ

ﺔﻴﻤﻨﺘﻟﺍ ﻝﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﲔﻠﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻋﺎﻤﺟ .92

ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍ ﺩﺎﻨﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺮﺛﻷﺍ ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟ ﻥﻮﻬﺠﺘﻳ ﺕﺎﻧﻮﻌﳌﺍﻭ

ﻦﻣ ﻞﻣﻷﺍ ﺔﺒﻴﺧ ﻦﻣ ﺔﺟﺭﺪﺑ ﻲﺣﻮﻳ ﺎﳑ ،ﺞﺋﺎﺘﻨﻟﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ

ﻎﻟﺎﺒﻣ ﺪﺻﺭ ﰎ ﺚﻴﺣ) ﺕﻼﺧﺪﹸﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﳌﺍ ﺞﻣﺍﺮﺒﻟﺍ

،ﺎﻫﺪﻴﻴﺸﺗ ﰎ ﻲﺘﻟﺍ ﺱﺭﺍﺪـﳌﺍ ﺩﺍﺪـﻋﺃﻭ ﻝﺍﻮـﻣﻷﺍ ﻑﺮﺻ

ﺱﺭﺍﺪﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ ﲔﺟﺮﺨﺘﳌﺍ ﺬﻴﻣﻼﺘﻟﺍ ﺩﺪﻋ ﻞﺑﺎﻘﻣ ﻲﻓ

ﺔﻘﻳﺮﻃ ﻲﻓ ﻕﺮﻔﻟﺍ ﺾﻌﺑ ﻚﻟﺎﻨﻫ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .(ﻢﻬﺋﺍﺩﺃ ﻭﺃ

ﻲﻓ "ﺕﻼﺧﺪﹸﳌﺍ ﻰﻟﺇ ﺓﺪﻨﺘﺴﳌﺍ" ﺕﺎﻴﺠﻬﻨﳌﺍ ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺗ

ﺕﺎﺳﺎﻴﺴﻟﺍ ﺕﺍﺮﻴﻴﻐﺗ ﻲﻫ ﺕﻼﺧﺪﳌﺍ ﻥﻷ - ﺔﻟﺎﳊﺍ ﻩﺬﻫ

- ﻒﻳﺮﻌﺘﻟﺍ ﺔﻘﻴﻀﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ ﺕﻼﺧﺪﳌﺍ ﺖﺴﻴﻟﻭ

ﺩﻮﻗﻮﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍﻭ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﺮﻴﻳﺎﻌﻣ ﺫﺎﻔﻧﺇﻭ ﺩﺎﻤﺘﻋﺍ

ﻖﻴﻘﺤﺘﻟ ﺞﻣﺎﻧﺮﺑ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻡﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻕﺎﻔﻧﻹﺍ ﻦﻣ ﹰﻻﺪـﺑ

ﺎﻤﻬﺘﻴﻤﻫﺃ ﻢﻴﻴﻘﺘﻟﺍﻭ ﺪﺻﺮﻠﻟ ﻝﺍﺯﺎﻣ ﻦﻜﻟﻭ .ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻜﻟﺍ

.ﺢﺠﻨﻳ ﻻ ﺎﻣﻭ ﺢﺠﻨﻳ ﺎﻣ ﺔﻓﺮﻌﻣ ﺔﻴﻐﺑ

Olsen 2007; Sutter and Parreno 2007; .93

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.Michaelowa and Pallav 2007; Schneider 2007

Fankhauser, Martin, and Prichard 2009 .94

.World Bank 2007d .95

ﻦﻣ ﺕﺍﺰﻔﶈﺍ ﺕﺎﻋﻮﻤﺠﻣ ﺦﻀﺗ ﻥﺃ ﻊﻗﻮﺘﳌﺍ ﻦﻣ .96

ﻢﻟﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﻥﺍﺪﻠﺑﻭ ﻖﻃﺎﻨﻣ ﻒﻠﺘﺨﻣ ﻲﻓ ﺔﻣﺎﻌﻟﺍ ﺔﻴﻟﺎﳌﺍ

ﺔﻴﺴﻴﺋﺭ ﺕﻻﺎﺠﻣ ﻲﻓ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 430 ﻲﻟﺍﻮﺣ

ﺕﺍﻮﻨﺴﻟﺍ ﺓﺮﺘﻓ ﻲﻓ ﺥﺎﻨﳌﺎﺑ ﺔﻘﻠﻌﺘﳌﺍ ﺕﻻﺎﺍ ﲔﺑ ﻦﻣ

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 215 ﻕﺎﻔﻧﺇ ﻢﺘﻴﺳ :ﺔﻣﺩﺎﻘﻟﺍ ﺔﻠﻴﻠﻘﻟﺍ

ﻭ ،ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻣﺍﺪﺨﺘﺳﺍ ﺓﺀﺎﻔﻛ ﻖﻴﻘﲢ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

ﺓﺩﺪﺠﺘﳌﺍ ﺔﻗﺎﻄﻟﺍ ﺭﺩﺎﺼﻣ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 38

ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ 20 ﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﺕﺎﺛﺎﻌﺒﻧﺍ ﺔﻀﻔﺨﻨﻣ

92 ﻭ ،ﻥﻮﺑﺮﻜﻟﺍ ﺯﺎﻏ ﻦﻳﺰﺨﺗﻭ ﺯﺎﺠﺘﺣﺍ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ

.ﺔﻴﻛﺬﻟﺍ ﺀﺎﺑﺮﻬﻜﻟﺍ ﺕﺎﻜﺒﺷ ﻰﻠﻋ ﻲﻜﻳﺮﻣﺃ ﺭﻻﻭﺩ ﺭﺎﻴﻠﻣ

1 ﻞﺼﻔﻟﺍ ﺮﻈﻧﺃ .Robins, Clover, and Singh 2009

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