Du kan downloade publikationen i PDF her. - Finansministeriet
Du kan downloade publikationen i PDF her. - Finansministeriet
Du kan downloade publikationen i PDF her. - Finansministeriet
You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles
YUMPU automatically turns print PDFs into web optimized ePapers that Google loves.
5. 5. ENGLISH ENGLISH SUMMARY<br />
SUMMARY<br />
5.1. 5.1. Introduction<br />
Introduction<br />
At app. 2½ per cent according to latest estimates, growth now appears to<br />
have been somewhat stronger in 2000 than expected in August. This primarily<br />
reflects hig<strong>her</strong> than expected investment growth following the hurricane<br />
in December 1999.<br />
The outlook for 2001 and 2002 is for more modest growth-rates of app.<br />
1¾ per cent. For 2001 this reflects the disappearance of the hurricaneeffect,<br />
w<strong>her</strong>eas an increase in the interest-rate differential vis-à-vis the<br />
Euro-area is expected to dampen activity-increases in 2002.<br />
The interest-rate differential vis-à-vis the Euro-area is expected to widen,<br />
as the projections have been based on a strengthening of the Euro vis-à-vis<br />
the Dollar, which tends to widen the differential between kroner-rates and<br />
Euro-rates.<br />
Inflationary pressures in the Danish economy appear to be decreasing.<br />
Unemployment is flattening out for the first time since 1994, inflation has<br />
fallen and is now at par with inflation in the Euro-area, and wage increases<br />
are relatively moderate. Moreover, both the current account and the fiscal<br />
balance have been strengthened. With modest growth in 2001 and 2002<br />
inflationary pressures should continue to wear off.<br />
Not withstanding these improvements, capacity utilisation in the economy<br />
is still high and has to be monitored closely. Moreover, it is important<br />
to avoid that increases in oil prices and the weakening of the effective<br />
exchange rate leads to accelerating wage increases. Thus, it is necessary<br />
that economic policies continue to be vigilant.<br />
Measured by the first year fiscal effect, the central government budget bill<br />
and local government budgets for 2001 are estimated to imply a moderate<br />
easing of fiscal policy compared with the estimate from August, even<br />
though the additional expenditures will be more or less fully financed. The<br />
easing reflects that expenditures increase activity by more than taxincreases<br />
dampen it.<br />
Thus in 2001 fiscal policy is estimated to contribute some 0.4 percentage<br />
points to economic growth. Two thirds stem from the local government<br />
budgets and one third from the central government budget bill. However,<br />
taking into account the structural savings effects due to the Whitsun package,<br />
economic policies all in all are more or less neutral in 2001.<br />
78<br />
78