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Du kan downloade publikationen i PDF her. - Finansministeriet

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5. 5. ENGLISH ENGLISH SUMMARY<br />

SUMMARY<br />

5.1. 5.1. Introduction<br />

Introduction<br />

At app. 2½ per cent according to latest estimates, growth now appears to<br />

have been somewhat stronger in 2000 than expected in August. This primarily<br />

reflects hig<strong>her</strong> than expected investment growth following the hurricane<br />

in December 1999.<br />

The outlook for 2001 and 2002 is for more modest growth-rates of app.<br />

1¾ per cent. For 2001 this reflects the disappearance of the hurricaneeffect,<br />

w<strong>her</strong>eas an increase in the interest-rate differential vis-à-vis the<br />

Euro-area is expected to dampen activity-increases in 2002.<br />

The interest-rate differential vis-à-vis the Euro-area is expected to widen,<br />

as the projections have been based on a strengthening of the Euro vis-à-vis<br />

the Dollar, which tends to widen the differential between kroner-rates and<br />

Euro-rates.<br />

Inflationary pressures in the Danish economy appear to be decreasing.<br />

Unemployment is flattening out for the first time since 1994, inflation has<br />

fallen and is now at par with inflation in the Euro-area, and wage increases<br />

are relatively moderate. Moreover, both the current account and the fiscal<br />

balance have been strengthened. With modest growth in 2001 and 2002<br />

inflationary pressures should continue to wear off.<br />

Not withstanding these improvements, capacity utilisation in the economy<br />

is still high and has to be monitored closely. Moreover, it is important<br />

to avoid that increases in oil prices and the weakening of the effective<br />

exchange rate leads to accelerating wage increases. Thus, it is necessary<br />

that economic policies continue to be vigilant.<br />

Measured by the first year fiscal effect, the central government budget bill<br />

and local government budgets for 2001 are estimated to imply a moderate<br />

easing of fiscal policy compared with the estimate from August, even<br />

though the additional expenditures will be more or less fully financed. The<br />

easing reflects that expenditures increase activity by more than taxincreases<br />

dampen it.<br />

Thus in 2001 fiscal policy is estimated to contribute some 0.4 percentage<br />

points to economic growth. Two thirds stem from the local government<br />

budgets and one third from the central government budget bill. However,<br />

taking into account the structural savings effects due to the Whitsun package,<br />

economic policies all in all are more or less neutral in 2001.<br />

78<br />

78

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