Tryg KÃ¸b - Danske Bank

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SWOT-analyseStyrkerSvagheder• Høj kundefastholdelse trods massive generelleprisforhøjelser• Stærk kapitaldækning, A- rating fra S&P• Største spiller på det danske skadeforsikringsmarked• Konservativ investeringsportefølje• Efter peers mht. at indføre næste generation af prismodeller:mikrotarifering• Erhvervsforretningen underperformer• Historisk fokus på toplinjenMuligheder• Forbedre prissætningsmodeller – processen er begyndt• Trimme omkostningsbasen – ambitionerne er meldt ud• Forbedre acceptpolitikken i storkundesegmentet – ser udtil at være sket fra 2012• Reducere rentabilitetsgabet til Gjensidige i Norge• Aktivere TrygFonden til gavn for medlemmerne og brugedet som argument for at vælge Tryg.Trusler• Restruktureringen vil sandsynligvis medføre, at Tryg får nuleller endda negativ toplinjevækst, og det vil øge presset påomkostningerne• Position i forhold til Nordea er ændret, efter at If P&C nuudbyder forsikringsprodukter i Sverige og Finland igennemNordea. Distribution i Danmark og Norge kan være i fare pålængere sigt.2 | Tryg Køb www.danskemarketequities.com
OpsummeringINCOME STATEMENTYear end Dec, DKKm 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015EPremiums, non-life 16,235 16,829 17,495 17,979 19,557 20,720 20,482 20,890 20,890 21,350Claims -10,564 -11,175 -11,766 -12,869 -15,590 -16,287 -14,675 -14,670 -14,680 -15,130Costs -2,697 -2,769 -3,003 -3,056 -3,304 -3,430 -3,295 -3,200 -3,060 -3,170Technical interest 343 501 499 158 134 184 62 30 30 30Technical profit 2,512 2,820 2,384 1,575 402 1,546 2,492 2,410 2,530 2,420Investment income, net 1,228 340 -988 1,073 543 54 585 292 178 160Non-life profit 3,709 3,109 1,347 2,610 941 1,569 3,017 2,637 2,638 2,505Profit before tax 3,709 3,109 1,347 2,610 941 1,569 3,017 2,637 2,638 2,505Tax -624 -842 -501 -625 -265 -455 -837 -690 -686 -651Net income from discontinued operat 126 -1 0 23 -83 26 28 0 0 0Net earnings 3,211 2,266 846 2,008 593 1,140 2,208 1,947 1,952 1,854Adjusted net earnings 3,211 2,266 846 2,008 593 1,140 2,208 1,947 1,952 1,854BALANCE SHEETDKKm 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015EInvestment assets, non-life 36,500 37,308 34,150 39,762 40,393 41,247 45,544 46,300 46,100 46,800Investment assets total 37,877 37,846 32,745 37,268 42,036 45,464 45,920 46,430 46,040 46,530Goodwill 0 0 0 465 513 499 502 500 500 500Total assets 42,783 43,830 38,445 44,740 50,591 53,221 54,313 54,990 54,820 55,590Non-life reserves 25,957 26,916 25,193 29,002 32,031 34,257 34,355 35,150 35,150 35,880Insurance reserves, total 25,957 26,916 25,193 29,002 32,031 34,257 34,355 35,150 35,150 35,880Subordinated debt 1,099 1,101 1,102 1,586 1,591 1,589 1,597 1,600 1,600 1,600Equity 9,951 10,010 8,244 9,666 8,458 9,007 10,979 10,610 10,180 9,950NTA 11,053 10,010 8,244 9,201 7,945 8,508 10,477 10,110 9,680 9,450PER SHARE DATA 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015ENo. of shares, fully diluted (y.e.) (m) 67.8 67.6 64.4 63.2 60.6 60.4 60.7 58.9 57.3 56.3No. of shares, fully diluted (avg.) (m) 67.8 67.6 66.2 63.3 61.9 60.5 60.5 60.3 58.1 56.8EPS (reported) (DKK) 47.3 33.5 12.8 31.7 9.58 18.8 36.5 32.3 33.6 32.6EPS (adj.) (DKK) 47.3 33.5 12.8 31.7 9.58 18.8 36.5 32.3 33.6 32.6DPS (DKK) 33.0 17.0 6.50 15.5 4.00 6.52 26.0 28.0 29.0 29.0Book value per share (DKK) 147 148 128 153 139 149 181 180 178 177NTA per share (DKK) 163 148 128 146 131 141 173 172 169 168MARGINS AND GROWTH 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015EClaims ratio, non-life 69.6% 69.4% 71.8% 75.0% 81.7% 76.7% 71.8% 73.1% 73.2% 73.7%Cost ratio, non-life 16.8% 16.7% 17.3% 17.1% 17.0% 16.7% 16.2% 15.4% 14.8% 15.0%Combined ratio, non-life 86.5% 86.0% 89.1% 92.1% 98.6% 93.4% 88.0% 88.5% 87.9% 88.7%Run-off impact 3.8% 4.4% 5.0% 3.8% 4.5% 5.0% 1.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%Premium growth, non-life 2.3% 3.7% 4.0% 2.8% 8.8% 5.9% -1.1% 2.0% 0.0% 2.2%PROFITABILITY 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015ERoE, reported profits 35.4% 22.7% 9.3% 22.4% 6.5% 13.1% 22.1% 18.0% 18.8% 18.4%RoNTA, adj. profits 31.6% 21.5% 9.3% 23.0% 6.9% 13.9% 23.3% 18.9% 19.7% 19.4%VALUATION 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E 2015EShare price (DKK) 432 388 328 343 258 319 427 451 451 451Market cap (DKKm) 29,251 26,244 21,116 21,671 15,613 19,259 25,886 26,572 25,829 25,400P/E (reported) (x) 9.1 11.6 25.7 10.8 26.9 16.9 11.7 14.0 13.4 13.8P/E (adj.) (x) 9.1 11.6 25.7 10.8 26.9 16.9 11.7 14.0 13.4 13.8P/BV (x) 2.94 2.62 2.56 2.24 1.85 2.14 2.36 2.50 2.54 2.55P/NTA (x) 2.65 2.62 2.56 2.36 1.97 2.26 2.47 2.63 2.67 2.69Dividend yield 7.6% 4.4% 2.0% 4.5% 1.6% 2.0% 6.1% 6.2% 6.4% 6.4%Total yield (incl. buybacks) 7.9% 4.7% 7.5% 6.4% 6.7% 2.5% 6.4% 9.2% 9.5% 8.4%Source: Danske Bank Markets3 | Tryg Køb www.danskemarketequities.com
Page 4: DisclosureDenne analyse er udarbejd

Tryg KÃ¸b - Danske Bank

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