2-picks-by-Investerarfysikern
Two picks by Investerarfysikern
Castellum
ICA
DISCLAIMER: This report is for information purposes only and are not investment advice.
14 June 2016
Castellum: A. Stotz Profitable Growth
Good
profitability
Profitable Growth
'11 '12 '13 '14 PTM
8 4 5 7 3
Great growth
Profitability
Growth
'11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM
7 5 5 6 3 9 2 5 8 2
Asset utilization Profit margin Sales growth Margin change
'11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM
8 8 8 8 9 4 2 2 3 1 6 6 7 7 8 9 2 3 9 1
Benchmarked against 520 medium Real Estate companies worldwide.
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research. Notes: 1 = top ranking and 10 = worst. Most recent year’s data is based on the past 12 months (PTM) of
published data.
14 June 2016
2
Castellum: Global benchmarking
2011 2012 2013 2014 PTM
Profitability & growth ranking against 520 Real Estate companies worldwide (1=Best) 8 4 5 7 3
Profitability: Great improvement to the top 3
Best
2
Castellum: ROA (%) & ranking
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
3 7
4
5 4 5
6 3
7 2
8
9
Worst
Return on assets (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate
Growth: Coming back
Best
Castellum: Castellum: EPS growth EPS (%) growth & ranking (%) & ranking
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
2 107 138
3
4
5 16
6
7
8 (29)
9 (64)
Worst
EPS growth indices, rebased to 100
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.
14 June 2016
3
Castellum: Global benchmarking – Breaking down profitability
2011 2012 2013 2014 PTM
Profitability ranking against 520 Real Estate companies worldwide (1=Best) 7 5 5 6 3
Asset utilization: Stable, but low efficiency
Best
2
3
4
5
6
7
Castellum: Asset turnover (%) & ranking
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
8 9 9 9 9
9 8
Worst
Asset turnover (%)
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate
Net margin: Has risen to the top
Castellum: Castellum: Net margin Net (%) margin & ranking (%) & ranking
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Best 87
2 48 53
3 36
4 24
5
6
7
8
9
Worst
Net margin (%)
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.
14 June 2016
4
Castellum: Global benchmarking – Breaking down growth
2011 2012 2013 2014 PTM
Growth ranking against 520 Real Estate companies worldwide (1=Best) 9 2 5 8 2
Sales growth: Flattish
Best
2
3
4
5
9
Worst
25
20
15
10
5
-
(5)
Castellum: Sales growth (%) & ranking
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
6 6 5
7 6 2
8 (1)
Sales growth (%)
30
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate
Net margin change: Rebounded
Castellum: Castellum: Net margin Net change margin (%) change & ranking (%) & ranking
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Best 51
2 24
3 5
4
5
6
7
8
9 (47) (16)
Worst
Jan-00
Net margin change contribution to EPS growth (%)
150
100
50
-
(50)
(100)
(69.6)
101.9
10.2
(31.2)
138.5
Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*
Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.
14 June 2016
5
ICA: A. Stotz Profitable Growth
Room for
improvement in
profitability
Profitable Growth
'12 '13 '14 '15 PTM
8 1 6 5 5
Good growth
Profitability
Growth
'12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM
7 1 6 5 5 8 1 9 4 3
Asset utilization Profit margin Sales growth Margin change
'12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM
10 4 6 5 5 2 1 5 5 5 4 nm 1 2 3 9 1 10 5 4
Benchmarked against 590 large Cons. Staples companies worldwide.
Source: A. Stotz Investment Research. Notes: 1 = top ranking and 10 = worst. Most recent year’s data is based on the past 12 months (PTM) of
published data.
14 June 2016
6
ICA: Global benchmarking
2012 2013 2014 2015 PTM
Profitability & growth ranking against 590 Cons. Staples companies worldwide (1=Best) 8 1 6 5 5
Profitability: Just about average
ICA: ROA (%) & ranking
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
Best 25
2
3
4
5 5 5
6 4
7 3
8
9
Worst
Return on assets (%)
30
25
20
15
10
5
-
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples
Growth: Good trend
ICA: EPS growth ICA: EPS (%) growth & ranking (%) & ranking
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
Best 3,119
2
3 37
4 24
5
6
7
8 (11)
9 (72)
Worst
EPS growth indices, rebased to 100
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.
14 June 2016
7
ICA: Global benchmarking – Breaking down profitability
2012 2013 2014 2015 PTM
Profitability ranking against 590 Cons. Staples companies worldwide (1=Best) 7 1 6 5 5
Asset utilization: Stable around average rank
Best
2
3
ICA: Asset turnover (%) & ranking
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
4 164
5 137 135
6 123
7
8
9
Worst 27
Asset turnover (%)
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
-
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples
Net margin: Stable in the average group
ICA: Net margin ICA: Net (%) margin & ranking (%) & ranking
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
Best 15
2 10
3
4
5 3 4 4
6
7
8
9
Worst
Net margin (%)
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
-
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.
14 June 2016
8
ICA: Global benchmarking – Breaking down growth
2012 2013 2014 2015 PTM
Growth ranking against 590 Cons. Staples companies worldwide (1=Best) 8 1 9 4 3
Sales growth: Sliding down
ICA: Sales growth (%) & ranking
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
Best 2,290 34
2 16
3 12
4 9
5
6
7
8
9
Worst
Sales growth (%)
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples
Net margin change: Positive trend
ICA: Net margin ICA: Net change margin (%) change & ranking (%) & ranking
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
Best 5
2
3
4 1
5 0
6
7
8
9 (2)
Worst (12)
Jan-00
Net margin change contribution to EPS growth (%)
1,000
828.8
800
600
400
200
-
(200)
7.7
25.1
(20.2)
(105.8)
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*
ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples
Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters
Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.
14 June 2016
9
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