Two picks by Investerarfysikern

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2-picks-by-Investerarfysikern

Two picks by Investerarfysikern

Castellum

ICA

DISCLAIMER: This report is for information purposes only and are not investment advice.

14 June 2016


Castellum: A. Stotz Profitable Growth

Good

profitability

Profitable Growth

'11 '12 '13 '14 PTM

8 4 5 7 3

Great growth

Profitability

Growth

'11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM

7 5 5 6 3 9 2 5 8 2

Asset utilization Profit margin Sales growth Margin change

'11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM '11 '12 '13 '14 PTM

8 8 8 8 9 4 2 2 3 1 6 6 7 7 8 9 2 3 9 1

Benchmarked against 520 medium Real Estate companies worldwide.

Source: A. Stotz Investment Research. Notes: 1 = top ranking and 10 = worst. Most recent year’s data is based on the past 12 months (PTM) of

published data.

14 June 2016

2


Castellum: Global benchmarking

2011 2012 2013 2014 PTM

Profitability & growth ranking against 520 Real Estate companies worldwide (1=Best) 8 4 5 7 3

Profitability: Great improvement to the top 3

Best

2

Castellum: ROA (%) & ranking

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

3 7

4

5 4 5

6 3

7 2

8

9

Worst

Return on assets (%)

12

10

8

6

4

2

-

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate

Growth: Coming back

Best

Castellum: Castellum: EPS growth EPS (%) growth & ranking (%) & ranking

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

2 107 138

3

4

5 16

6

7

8 (29)

9 (64)

Worst

EPS growth indices, rebased to 100

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

-

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate

Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.

14 June 2016

3


Castellum: Global benchmarking – Breaking down profitability

2011 2012 2013 2014 PTM

Profitability ranking against 520 Real Estate companies worldwide (1=Best) 7 5 5 6 3

Asset utilization: Stable, but low efficiency

Best

2

3

4

5

6

7

Castellum: Asset turnover (%) & ranking

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

8 9 9 9 9

9 8

Worst

Asset turnover (%)

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

-

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate

Net margin: Has risen to the top

Castellum: Castellum: Net margin Net (%) margin & ranking (%) & ranking

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Best 87

2 48 53

3 36

4 24

5

6

7

8

9

Worst

Net margin (%)

120

100

80

60

40

20

-

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate

Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.

14 June 2016

4


Castellum: Global benchmarking – Breaking down growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 PTM

Growth ranking against 520 Real Estate companies worldwide (1=Best) 9 2 5 8 2

Sales growth: Flattish

Best

2

3

4

5

9

Worst

25

20

15

10

5

-

(5)

Castellum: Sales growth (%) & ranking

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

6 6 5

7 6 2

8 (1)

Sales growth (%)

30

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate

Net margin change: Rebounded

Castellum: Castellum: Net margin Net change margin (%) change & ranking (%) & ranking

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Best 51

2 24

3 5

4

5

6

7

8

9 (47) (16)

Worst

Jan-00

Net margin change contribution to EPS growth (%)

150

100

50

-

(50)

(100)

(69.6)

101.9

10.2

(31.2)

138.5

Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 PTM*

Castellum World Real Estate Sweden Real Estate

Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.

14 June 2016

5


ICA: A. Stotz Profitable Growth

Room for

improvement in

profitability

Profitable Growth

'12 '13 '14 '15 PTM

8 1 6 5 5

Good growth

Profitability

Growth

'12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM

7 1 6 5 5 8 1 9 4 3

Asset utilization Profit margin Sales growth Margin change

'12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM '12 '13 '14 '15 PTM

10 4 6 5 5 2 1 5 5 5 4 nm 1 2 3 9 1 10 5 4

Benchmarked against 590 large Cons. Staples companies worldwide.

Source: A. Stotz Investment Research. Notes: 1 = top ranking and 10 = worst. Most recent year’s data is based on the past 12 months (PTM) of

published data.

14 June 2016

6


ICA: Global benchmarking

2012 2013 2014 2015 PTM

Profitability & growth ranking against 590 Cons. Staples companies worldwide (1=Best) 8 1 6 5 5

Profitability: Just about average

ICA: ROA (%) & ranking

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

Best 25

2

3

4

5 5 5

6 4

7 3

8

9

Worst

Return on assets (%)

30

25

20

15

10

5

-

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples

Growth: Good trend

ICA: EPS growth ICA: EPS (%) growth & ranking (%) & ranking

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

Best 3,119

2

3 37

4 24

5

6

7

8 (11)

9 (72)

Worst

EPS growth indices, rebased to 100

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples

Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.

14 June 2016

7


ICA: Global benchmarking – Breaking down profitability

2012 2013 2014 2015 PTM

Profitability ranking against 590 Cons. Staples companies worldwide (1=Best) 7 1 6 5 5

Asset utilization: Stable around average rank

Best

2

3

ICA: Asset turnover (%) & ranking

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

4 164

5 137 135

6 123

7

8

9

Worst 27

Asset turnover (%)

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

-

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples

Net margin: Stable in the average group

ICA: Net margin ICA: Net (%) margin & ranking (%) & ranking

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

Best 15

2 10

3

4

5 3 4 4

6

7

8

9

Worst

Net margin (%)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

-

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples

Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.

14 June 2016

8


ICA: Global benchmarking – Breaking down growth

2012 2013 2014 2015 PTM

Growth ranking against 590 Cons. Staples companies worldwide (1=Best) 8 1 9 4 3

Sales growth: Sliding down

ICA: Sales growth (%) & ranking

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

Best 2,290 34

2 16

3 12

4 9

5

6

7

8

9

Worst

Sales growth (%)

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

-

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples

Net margin change: Positive trend

ICA: Net margin ICA: Net change margin (%) change & ranking (%) & ranking

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

Best 5

2

3

4 1

5 0

6

7

8

9 (2)

Worst (12)

Jan-00

Net margin change contribution to EPS growth (%)

1,000

828.8

800

600

400

200

-

(200)

7.7

25.1

(20.2)

(105.8)

Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 PTM*

ICA World Cons. Staples Sweden Cons. Staples

Sources: A. Stotz Investment Research, Thomson Reuters

Notes: *Past 12 months of published data.

14 June 2016

9

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