Erfahrungs- und Forschungsbericht 2012 - Ensi

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Erfahrungs- und Forschungsbericht 2012 - Ensi

an overview of the findings and conclusions of

both studies (preliminary for the U.S. study) for

the PRA Subcommittee of the U.S. Advisory Committee

on Reactor Safeguards, for presentation in

January 2013.

The final reports of the International and U.S. HRA

Empirical Studies were initially planned to include

scenario-specific lessons for HRA. While the response

of the crews in the simulated scenarios is

summarized in these final reports and in additional,

supporting OECD Halden reports, e.g. [5], scenario-specific

lessons for HRA practitioners will be addressed

in a separate report. This important task

related to insights for analysts concerning human

performance issues in the simulated emergencies

will be performed in 2013.

4. Development of guidelines for data collection

in simulators.

The literature review on the state of HRA data will

be completed and submitted for publication in

2013. The guidelines for simulator data collection

will be completed in 2013. For future work, pilot

testing of the guidelines with our Korean partner

is proposed; it will emphasize an evaluation of the

practicality of the proposed measures for characterizing

the performance context and the observed

crew performances.

Technical Basis for Seismic HRA

A report summarizing earthquake experiences at

nuclear power plants, focused on the human performance

elements, will be finalized in 2013. Additionally,

to follow up the issues and information

gaps highlighted in this report, a survey questionnaire

for the elicitation of complementary information

from subject matter experts will be prepared.

The completion of this project is scheduled for

June 2013. The objectives for a proposed followup

project are under discussion with ENSI.

Publications

A. Bye, V.N. Dang, J.A. Forester, M. Hildebrandt,

J. Marble, H. Liao, E. Lois: «Overview and Preliminary

Results of the US Empirical HRA Study»,

Proc. 11 th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and

Management/European Safety and Reliability

2012 (PSAM11/ESREL2012), Helsinki, Finland,

25–29 June 2012, CD-ROM.

J.A. Forester, A. Bye, V.N. Dang, E. Lois, J. Julius,

S. Massaiu, H. Broberg, P.O. Braarud, R. Boring,

I. Männistö, H. Liao, G.W. Parry, P. Nelson: The

International HRA Empirical Study – Final Report

– Lessons Learned from Comparing HRA Methods

Predictions to HAMMLAB Simulator Data,

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG-

2127 (draft, to be published 2013). Also published

by OECD Halden Reactor Project, HPR-373

(draft), Halden, Norway.

J.A. Forester, V.N. Dang, A. Bye, R. Boring, H. Liao,

E. Lois: Conclusions on Human Reliability Analysis

(HRA) Methods from the International HRA

Empirical Study», Proc. 11 th Probabilistic Safety

Assessment and Management/European Safety

and Reliability 2012 (PSAM11/ESREL2012), Helsinki,

Finland, 25–29 June 2012, CD-ROM.

J. Marble, H. Liao, M. Presley, J. Forester, A.

Bye, V.N. Dang, E. Lois: Results and Insights

Derived from the Intra-Method Comparisons of

the US HRA Empirical Study», Proc. 11 th Probabilistic

Safety Assessment and Management/

European Safety and Reliability 2012 (PSAM11/

ESREL2012), Helsinki, Finland, 25–29 June 2012,

CD-ROM.

NEA CSNI: Simulator Studies for HRA Purposes,

Proc. of the OECD/NEA Workshop, NEA/

CSNI/R(2012)1, 4-6 Nov. 2009, Budapest, Hungary,

OECD Nuclear Energy Agency, Paris, France.

L. Podofillini, V.N. Dang: Conventional and

dynamic safety analysis: Comparison on a chemical

batch reactor, Reliability Engineering & System

Safety, 106, pp. 146–159, 2012a.

L. Podofillini, V.N. Dang: Progress on Errors of

Commission: an Outlook Based on Plant-Specific

Results, Proc. 11 th Probabilistic Safety Assessment

and Management/European Safety and

Reliability 2012 (PSAM11/ESREL2012), Helsinki,

Finland, 25–29 June 2012, CD-ROM, 2012b.

L. Podofillini, V.N. Dang: Treating Complex

Dynamics in Probabilistic Safety Assessment:

a Case Study from the Process Industry, Proc.

11 th Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management/European

Safety and Reliability 2012

(PSAM11/ESREL2012), Helsinki, Finland, 25–29

June 2012, CD-ROM, 2012c.

L. Podofillini, V.N. Dang: A Bayesian Approach to

Treat Expert-Elicited Probabilities in Human Reliability

Analysis Model Construction, manuscript

submitted to Reliability Engineering & System

Safety, Aug. 2012, 2012d.

L. Podofillini, V.N. Dang, O. Nusbaumer, D. Dres:

A pilot study for errors of commission for a boiling

water reactor using the CESA method, Reliability

Engineering & System Safety, 109, Pages

86–98, January 2013.

ENSI Erfahrungs- und Forschungsbericht 2012 189

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