atw 2017-09

atw Vol. 62 (2017) | Issue 8/9 ı August/September
were suspended in 1990. Similar plans to recommence
­construction have been in development but are less
­advanced.
2016 saw ten units grid connected and three units
closed down (Figure 11). This was the second year that
ten reactors were connected to the grid, a number of grid
­connections not seen since 1990. Reactor connections
­remain lower than their mid-1980s peak, when more than
30 reactors were connected to the grid each year.
Five of the ten reactors connected to the grid in 2016
were constructed in China, with one reactor grid ­connected
in India, South Korea, Pakistan, Russia and USA. Watts Bar
2 first started construction in 1973, but this was suspended
in 1985, before restarting in 2007.
The best performance for construction times for those
reactors grid connected in 2016 are all associated with
China (Figure 12). Five of the six reactors built in the
shortest time were built in China, and the sixth, ­Chashma 3,
is a Chinese-designed reactor, constructed in Pakistan.
The construction time listed for Watts Bar 2 is based on
the restart date for construction, in October 2007.
The median construction time for reactors grid
­connected in 2016 was 73.88 months, higher than for
the five year average in the preceding five years, but little
changed from 2015 (Figure 13). Construction times have
remained below the levels seen prior to 2000.
Conclusions
The global nuclear fleet continued high levels of
­performance in 2016, with an average capacity factor
of 80.5%. The industry has maintained high capacity
­factors of around 80% for the last 20 years, a substantial
increase on capacity factors of around 50% achieved in
the 1970s. Higher capacity factors have been achieved.
In recent years, US reactors have regularly achieved
an ­average capacity factor of around 90 %. However,
­increasing requirements in some countries for nuclear
generation to operate to compensate for intermittent
­renewable generation means that in those countries
­capacity factors will likely be lower despite similarly high
levels of availability.
With ten reactors coming online in each the last two
years the number of reactors being connected to the grid
has been higher than any year since 1990. However, the
number of construction starts has dropped significantly
since 2010, so maintaining this rate of grid connections in
the coming years will be challenging.
The pace of new build will need to accelerate if nuclear
energy is going to make a growing contribution to the
­global electricity generation mix, a requirement of many
projections of future scenarios that aim to meet the
­objective of limiting the rise average temperatures to
­below two degrees Celsius, while at the same time meeting
the growing worldwide demand for electricity.
The global nuclear industry has its own Harmony goal,
setting out the contribution nuclear energy could make to
a sustainable low carbon electricity generation mix. The
Harmony goal is supply 25 % of the world’s electricity by
2050. To achieve this goal it is proposed there should be
1,000 GWe of new nuclear build by 2050, as part of a
­global drive to reduce dependence on polluting fossil fuel
generation while meeting global development needs.
To achieve this aim will require a ramping up of nuclear
construction. About 10 GWe of nuclear capacity needs to
be grid connected each year until 2020. This would require
maintaining the levels of grid connections achieved in
2015 and 2016. An average 25 GWe then needs to be
| | Fig. 11.
Reactor grid connection and shutdown 1980 to 2016.
| | Fig. 12.
Construction times of new unit connected to grid in 2016.
| | Fig. 13.
Median construction times for reactors since 1981 (months).
| | Fig. 14.
Historic construction rates and future requirements for the harmony target.
­connected each year from 2021 to 2025, and an average
33 GWe from 2026 to 2050 (Figure 14).
This is a practical and achievable target, with build
rates similar to those achieved in the mid-1980s. But to
achieve it will require action on three key areas: ­addressing
market failures; building harmonized regulation; and
­creating an effective safety paradigm.
There is not a level playing field in many electricity
­markets. The true cost of air pollution, including carbon
ENERGY POLICY, ECONOMY AND LAW 519
Energy Policy, Economy and Law
World Nuclear Performance Report 2017 ı Jonathan Cobb