HANSA 08-2019

Märkte | Markets
No summertime blues – markets soaring!
Charter rates in the dry bulk and container ship segments are defying normal seasonal
patterns. For many vessel classes the trend is showing straight up. By Michael Hollmann
Charter markets have become used to
slowing activity and pressure on hire
rates during the summer holidays. This
year is the exact opposite for most vessel
types in the dry cargo and and also – albeit
to a lesser extent – in the container
ship market.
Charter rate barometers for container
ships such as the Howe Robinson Containership
Index and the New ConTex are
still up month-on-month by mid-/late July.
Instead of a typical summer dip, further
increases are anticipated in the weeks to
come based on limited spot/prompt supply
of ships and strong supply for larger
gearless ships.
The one constant feature throughout
the first half of the year was brisk demand
for traditional post-panamax ships, with
market rates firming up rapidly during
the second quarter. Enquiry from charterers
has not waned much, but the pace
of fixing slowed simply because there are
hardly any tramp vessels available anymore.
Since the middle of June, attention
by operators has therefore shifted to traditional
panamaxes.
Panamaxes in hot demand
According to brokers, this shift and the rapid
increase in fixing of panamaxes took
everyone by surprise. Spot availability reduced
sharply as a result while fixing levels
for 4,250 TEU baby panamaxes for
6-8 month durations have soared by more
than 3,000 $ (+30-35%) within four weeks
– »something we have rarely seen before,«
as one broker remarked. Where ships were
achieving 9,000-9,500 $/day one month
ago, the latest benchmarks are now in the
12,500-13,000 $-range.
Hong Kong-based TS Lines was reported
to have extended the 4,255 TEU »Harrier
Hunter« for 8 months at 12,700 $/day,
net of address commission. Allowing for
a typical »add com« for the liner operator
of 2.0% or higher, the total rate would
breach $13,000. Elsewhere, Ocean Network
Express was named as charterer of
the 4,252 TEU »Holsatia« at 12,500 $/day
for 7-9 months. Both are for delivery in
the Far East in August.
The result of this rally in the east was
that the rate imbalance between the
Atlantic and Pacific has been turned
around. Fixing levels for panamaxes in
Asia are now almost 1,000 $ higher than
for Europe/Mediterranean delivery, whereas
before levels in the Atlantic used to
be around $2,000 higher. Latest fixtures/
extensions on the continent were reported
at just below 12,000 $/day.
A number of factors seem to have converged
to lend a boost to panamax demand,
say brokers. First of all, overall
cargo volumes has held up better than
expected despite the US/China trade war
and slowdown in GDP growth. Clarksons
Platou forecasts a 3.4% increase in global
loaded container traffic this year, versus
just 2.9% fleet capacity growth. Some
have pointed, in particular, to rising volumes
in the Asia/North America trade as
a driver for panamax demand.
No units left available
Secondly, panamaxes are benefiting from
tightness in supply of bigger post-panamaxes.
Those would probably be the first
choice for charterers as they seek to maximise
their economies of scale. However,
since there are no units left available,
panamaxes are next in line for them.
Fixtures of post-panamaxes have slowed
down to just one per week or per fortnight
as now and then some unexpected positions
still come up, but only in the 5,500-
6,500 TEU classes. Latest transactions
showed improvements of at least around
500-1,000$ over last done, as illustrated by
the 2002-built 6,400 TEU »Performance«
at 21,500 $/day to OOCL. Cosco fixed the
2002-built »E. R. Sweden« (6,008 TEU) at
16,850 $/day for 9-11 months, while the
modern wide-beam 6,881 TEU »Rhodos«
is reported to have fetched even 24,250
$ / day for 12 months trading in a new
Asia-US Gulf string.
The smaller vessel classes below
4,000 TEU are still lacking the same kind
of momentum. However, the picture
seems to have brightened up a little, especially
for 3,000-3,500 TEU vessels, gearless
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8 HANSA International Maritime Journal 08 | 2019