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Delphine LAUTIER and Alain GALLI Delphine LAUTIER(*) is ...

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($/b)<br />

35,00<br />

30,00<br />

25,00<br />

20,00<br />

15,00<br />

10,00<br />

18/05/98<br />

18/07/98<br />

18/09/98<br />

Figure 3. One-month’s futures prices observed <strong>and</strong> estimated, 1998 - 2001<br />

18/11/98<br />

18/01/99<br />

18/03/99<br />

18/05/99<br />

18/07/99<br />

18/09/99<br />

18/11/99<br />

22<br />

18/01/00<br />

Observed futures prices for a one month's maturity<br />

Estimated futures prices for a one month's maturity with a matrix H corresponding to the observations.<br />

Estimated futures prices for a one month maturity <strong>and</strong> an artificially lowered matrix (Simulation 4)<br />

18/03/00<br />

18/05/00<br />

18/07/00<br />

18/09/00<br />

18/11/00<br />

18/01/01<br />

18/03/01<br />

18/05/01<br />

18/07/01<br />

18/09/01

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