The Global Media Intelligence Report

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The Global Media Intelligence Report

The Global Media

Intelligence Report

Executive Summary 2012


Executive Summary

2011 was another tough year for the global economy, as the eurozone crisis deepened and hopes were

dashed of a swift, sustainable recovery from the difficult period that began in 2007. In 2012, that recovery is

still some distance away. Several leading markets—including the US, the UK and much of Europe—are jittery,

as businesses and consumers deal with unwelcome financial realities. Meanwhile, lower spending in the

developed world has brought sharp cuts in income for emerging nations that depend heavily on exports.

Amidst this troubled financial landscape, the advertising

industry has proved quietly resilient. Overall, global ad

spending will top $538 billion this year, eMarketer estimates,

up 6.8% compared to 2011. In most countries, total ad

spending is expected to substantially outpace gains in

GDP. Greater increases in Latin America and Asia-Pacific, in

particular, mean that these regions will gradually account for

larger slices of the global pie.

Total Media Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region,

2012 & 2016

% of total

Eastern Middle East

Europe & Africa

4.8% 3.4%

Eastern

Europe

4.4%

Latin

America

6.4%

Western

Europe

22.4%

Asia-Pacific

30.1%

2012

Total=$538.75 billion

Middle East

& Africa

3.3% Latin

America

7.6%

North

America

33.3%

Western

Europe

19.5%

Asia-Pacific

34.4%

North

America

30.3%

2016

Total=$676.17 billion

Note: includes digital (online and mobile), directories, magazines,

newspapers, outdoor, radio and TV; numbers may not add up to 100% due

to rounding

Source: eMarketer, Sep 2012

145556 www.eMarketer.com

How can advertisers thrive in these challenging times?

As communications platforms proliferate, it’s crucial for

marketers to understand how consumers engage with

traditional and digital media, and how usage varies among

demographic segments. It’s also important to know how

patterns of ad spending are shifting in response to consumer

behavior within regions and around the world. The Global

Media Intelligence report brings together a broad selection

of information enabling advertisers to follow these essential

trends in key markets and assess where and how their dollars

can best be spent.

Globally, several macro-level developments are helping to

shape the marketplace:

■ Digital advertising is finally becoming a significant force in all

parts of the world. Digital ads (especially those designed for

mobile devices) will remain the fastest-growing category of

ad spending between 2012 and 2016.

■ Advertisers can increasingly make use of digital options to

refine and amplify the effect of their activity on most traditional

media platforms. For example, TV and out-of-home advertising

have been reinvigorated by the potential for cross-channel

interaction, in real time, with online and mobile marketing.

■ Many regional variations in usage will not be dispelled

by advances in media penetration. Significant behavioral

gaps will persist, thanks to stark differences in culture and

consumer needs. The media habits of semi-rural residents in

India and Brazil will never mirror those of the cosmopolitan

crowds in San Francisco, Munich or Dubai.

■ Thanks to high penetration of multiple platforms,

multitasking—the simultaneous use of a mobile phone

or tablet, for instance, while watching TV—is becoming

commonplace in well-established, mature digital markets

such as the US, Western Europe and South Korea, but plays

a smaller part in consumer behavior elsewhere. This has

obvious consequences for media strategists and planners.

For example, in Argentina, Chile and Peru, fewer than

8% of consumers reportedly used the mobile internet in

2011. Advertisers in such markets will likely gain little by

developing mobile sites with exclusive content tied to the

most-viewed TV programs. In the US, by contrast, mobile

sites are a vital part of many broadcasters’ plans to reward

viewers and keep them watching.

■ Around the globe, females are gradually taking their rightful

place in the online audience. Yet males still tend to dominate

among smartphone and mobile web users. In fact, gender

remains a significant differentiator in digital media usage in

many societies—partly because men are more likely than

women to have higher social status, jobs and disposable

income to spend on internet or mobile access and devices.

Marketers wooing female demographic segments in

emerging markets stand to reap major benefits as advanced

The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. i


Executive Summary

technology becomes more widely available to women. This

will be a key factor in pushing up digital ad spending outside

North America and Western Europe between now and 2016.

Digital Ad Spending Share Worldwide, by Region,

2012 & 2016

% of total

Latin

Latin Middle East

America

America & Africa

3.4% Middle East

4.4%

Eastern

& Africa

Eastern

1.6%

Europe

0.8%

Europe

4.7%

4.5%

Asia-

Pacific

26.3%

Western

Europe

26.6%

North

America

38.4%

2012

Total=$105.02 billion

Western

Europe

23.7%

Asia-

Pacific

30.7%

North

America

34.8%

2016

Total=$173.15 billion

Note: includes advertising that appears on desktop and laptop computers

as well as mobile phones and tablets, and includes all the various formats

of advertising on those platforms; excludes SMS, MMS and P2P

messaging-based advertising; numbers may not add up to 100% due to

rounding

Source: eMarketer, Sep 2012

145564 www.eMarketer.com

Against the background of these global trends, marketers face

different choices and opportunities in each region:

■ In North America, the world’s most advanced advertising market

by many measures, TV is holding its own as the most compelling

media experience for millions of people. At the same time, much

television and video programming is now viewed on smaller

screens, via catch-up services or social networks. Engagement

with digital platforms and alternative forms of content is surging

ahead. Also, the next few years should bring an unprecedented

boom in mobile ad spending. As a result, North America will be the

first region to see widespread use of advertising designed across

multiple devices. Mobile will be vital for brands trying to stand out

in this cluttered environment.

■ In Western Europe, the big story in 2012 has been the crisis

surrounding the euro—a financial storm with consequences

for every business and consumer in the region. Yet the digital

economy has grown robustly. Also, Western Europe boasts

even higher mobile phone penetration than North America.

Mobile can continue to break new ground here, though

sophisticated consumers will likely be more responsive to new

on-the-go services than to mobile advertising per se.

■ Eastern Europe has suffered from the financial turmoil afflicting

many of its neighbors to the west. The resulting slowdown has

come at a bad time for the advertising sector—and for digital

advertising in particular, which arguably hasn’t yet achieved

critical mass in several countries, including Slovakia, Turkey and

Ukraine. Because penetration of digital platforms (except mobile)

is relatively low, digital advertising is not lifting overall ad budgets

to the extent it is elsewhere. Until the economy improves, many

advertisers will find it hard to justify shifting large proportions of

their ad spending to online or mobile formats.

■ Economically, Latin America has shone more brightly as

areas such as North America and Western Europe have seen

growth stall. Argentina, Brazil and Peru, for example, are now

demonstrating enviable gains in GDP and coming into their own

in terms of digital user numbers and spending power. Burgeoning

populations and increasing consumer confidence are reinforcing

this trend. Advertisers in several markets in Latin America now

have the chance to hone their skills across a growing range of

old and new media platforms. Social media marketing shows

particular promise, thanks to the popularity of social networking.

■ On the whole, the Middle East and Africa (MEA) remains relatively

embryonic in advertising and marketing terms. Total ad spending

in the region will be less than $18 billion in 2012, eMarketer

estimates. This is partly because the majority of MEA countries

register far lower penetration of most media platforms than other

regions. Only TV and mobile phones will show consistently high

levels of usage in 2012. Yet venturing into a young, fast-growing

ad industry like that of MEA can provide major payoffs. One is the

chance for savvy brands to seize a first-mover advantage and

make a big splash among early adopters. In addition, advertisers

in many industries, such as consumer goods, retail and utilities,

can capitalize on widespread mobile use by delivering helpful

messages to consumers wherever they are, and making their

products and services more relevant to customers’ daily lives.

■ Our 2011 Global Media Intelligence Report noted the patchy

nature of media penetration across Asia-Pacific. Despite rapid

progress, media usage is still wildly uneven across the region—

and even within individual countries. Internet use, for example,

remains far greater in Australia, Hong Kong, Japan and South

Korea than among consumers in mainland China and Indonesia.

India registered lower web penetration than any other major

country in the world in 2011. Yet Asia-Pacific is still posting

impressive increases in GDP and consumer living standards. For

marketers, this is a win-win situation; digital media is attracting

ever-larger audiences while traditional media retains much of its

power. But advertisers will also need to up their games as regional

consumers become more discriminating.

As advertisers look to 2013, decisions about how and where to

place marketing budgets are increasingly complex, especially

for multinational players. The 2012 Global Media Intelligence

Report aims to help advertisers assess the value of specific

media platforms in major markets and plan confidently for

measurable return on investment.

The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. ii


Executive Summary

AsiA-PAcific oveRvIew AP-1

Australia AP-4

China AP-12

Hong Kong AP-19

India AP-22

Indonesia AP-29

Japan AP-36

South Korea AP-41

EAstErn EuroPE oveRvIew ee-1

Czech Republic EE-4

Estonia EE-7

Latvia EE-10

Poland EE-13

Russia EE-17

Slovakia EE-25

Turkey EE-29

Ukraine EE-33

LAtin AmEricA oveRvIew LA-1

Argentina LA-3

Brazil LA-10

Chile LA-18

Colombia LA-22

Mexico LA-26

Peru LA-33

Venezuela LA-37

middLE EAst And AfricA oveRvIew MA-1

Egypt MA-4

Kuwait MA-9

Lebanon MA-13

Saudi Arabia MA-17

South Africa MA-21

United Arab Emirates MA-23

north AmEricA oveRvIew NA-1

Canada NA-4

United States NA-11

WEstErn EuroPE oveRvIew we-1

France WE-4

Germany WE-12

Greece WE-20

Italy WE-24

The Netherlands WE-32

Norway WE-36

Portugal WE-39

Spain WE-42

Switzerland WE-49

United Kingdom WE-52

EmArkEtEr dEfinitions eD-1

eNDNoTes AsiA-PAcific eAP-1

eNDNoTes EAstErn EuroPE eee-1

eNDNoTes LAtin AmEricA eLA-1

eNDNoTes middLE EAst And AfricA eMA-1

eNDNoTes north AmEricA eNA-1

eNDNoTes WEstErn EuroPE ewe-1

The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. iii


Total Media Ad Spending Worldwide 2012 & 2016

Globally, spending on measured media will rise from $538.75 billion in 2012 to $676.17 billion in 2016. But tough

economic realities are mirrored in some regional figures. As Western Europe and North America struggle to regain

momentum, media spending will post low single-digit gains. Other parts of the world will do far better.

Asia-Pacific

2012

2016

CAGR 9.4%

North America

2012

2016

CAGR 3.3%

Western Europe

2012

2016

CAGR 2.3%

Latin America

2012

2016

CAGR 10.3%

Eastern Europe

2012

2016

CAGR 8.2%

Middle East & Africa

2012 $17.79B

CAGR 6.4%

$34.65B

$23.81B

$32.69B

2016 $22.79B

$51.33B

$120.64B

$131.99B

$162.39B

Top 5 Countries’

Share of Total

$179.47B

$204.58B

$232.79B

Total Spending

Worldwide (Billions)

2012 $538.75

2016 $676.17

CAGR 5.8%

Top 10 Countries Ranked by

Total Media Ad Spending (Billions)

2012 2016

1. US $165.96 1. US $189.23

2. Japan 47.75 2. China* 74.22

3. China* 46.34 3. Japan 53.42

4. Germany 27.82 4. Germany 29.44

5. UK 24.21 5. UK 27.65

6. Brazil 18.46 6. Brazil 27.63

7. France 16.49 7. France 17.21

8. Australia 15.03 8. Australia 16.73

9. Canada 13.51 9. Russia 16.09

10. Italy 13.42 10. Canada 15.36

2012 57.9%

2016 55.3%

The Global Media Intelligence Report * excluding Hong Kong. Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. iv


Digital Ad Spending Worldwide 2012 & 2016

Digital platforms are revolutionizing the advertising landscape—and driving industry expansion around the world.

Growth is most rapid in the least developed markets: Latin America, and the Middle East and Africa. But the top

five countries, ranked by digital ad spending, will account for over 66% of all spending in 2012.

North America

2012

2016

CAGR 10.6%

Asia-Pacific

2012

2016

CAGR 17.8%

Western Europe

2012

2016

CAGR 10.1%

Eastern Europe

2012

2016

CAGR 14.9%

Latin America

2012 $3.62B

2016

$4.68B

CAGR 20.7%

Middle East & Africa

2012 $0.84B

2016 $2.81B

CAGR 35.4%

$8.15B

$7.68B

$27.63B

$27.96B

$40.30B

$41.05B

$53.16B

Top 10 Countries Ranked by

Digital Ad Spending (Billions)

Top 5 Countries’

Share of Total

$60.30B

Digital Ad Spending

Worldwide (Billions)

2012 $105.02

2016 $173.15

CAGR 13.3%

2012 2016

1. US $37.08 1. US $55.05

2. Japan 9.60 2. China* 16.48

3. UK 8.64 3. Japan 12.55

4. China* 7.36 4. UK 12.19

5. Germany 6.75 5. Germany 9.29

6. Canada 3.22 6. Canada 5.24

7. France 3.19 7. Australia 4.50

8. Australia 3.04 8. France 4.26

9. S. Korea 2.50 9. Brazil 4.13

10. Russia 2.08 10. Indonesia 4.02

2012 66.1%

2016 61.0%

The Global Media Intelligence Report * excluding Hong Kong. Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. v


Mobile Ad Spending Worldwide 2012 & 2016

Asia-Pacific currently leads the world in mobile ad spending. But the North American market is catching up, and

expanding over twice as fast. Latin America will post the highest growth of all through 2016—nearly 65% annually,

on average. During the next four years, global spending on mobile ads will leap from $6.6 billion to $25.3 billion.

North America

2012

2016

CAGR 49.2%

Western Europe

2012

2016

CAGR 50.4%

Asia-Pacific

2012

2016

CAGR 18.8%

CAGR 64.7%

CAGR 38.9%

CAGR 47.0%

$1.305B

Latin America

2012 $0.099B

2016 $0.728B

Eastern Europe

2012 $0.121B

2016 $0.450B

Middle East & Africa

2012 $0.003B

2016 $0.014B

$2.494B

$2.561B

$5.094B

$6.679B

Top 10 Countries Ranked by

Mobile Ad Spending (Billions)

Top 5 Countries’

Share of Total

$12.359B

Mobile Ad Spending

Worldwide (Billions)

2012 $6.583

2016 $25.324

CAGR 40.0%

2012 2016

1. US $2.384 1. US $11.668

2. Japan 1.740 2. UK 3.030

3. UK .558 3. Japan 2.672

4. S. Korea .451 4. Germany 1.393

5. Germany .225 5. China* .780

6. China* .196 6. S. Korea .763

7. France .140 7. Canada .691

8. Italy .113 8. France .626

9. Canada .110 9. Italy .509

10. Australia .073 10. Spain .325

2012 81.4%

2016 77.2%

The Global Media Intelligence Report * excluding Hong Kong. Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. vi


Ad Spending per Person Worldwide 2012

In 2012, ad spending will average a remarkable $512 for each resident of North America—compared to $292 in

Western Europe. In all other regions, per-person ad Key

spending will be less than $60. Globally, digital ad

spending will average $46 per web user this year,

Internet Users Total Population

while total media ad spending will reach $77 per person. Digital Ad Spending/User Media Ad Spend/Person

Asia-Pacific

$26 $42

Latin America

Eastern Europe

1,060.2M

Middle East & Africa

$4 / $13

255.2M / 599.0M

$14 / $58

210.9M / 425.0M

$22 / $56

Western Europe

North America

267.2M / 413.8M

$105

265.4M / 350.6M

$152

208.4M / 1,328.0M

$292

Total Media Spending

per Person

SPENDING POP.

Worldwide $77 7,021.8M

1. Australia $683 22.0M

2. US 525 316.3M

3. Canada 394 34.3M

4. UK 384 63.0M

5. Japan 375 127.4M

6. Germany 342 81.3M

7. France 252 65.4M

8. Italy 219 61.0M

9. S. Korea 191 48.9M

10. Spain 161 47.0M

Digital Ad Spending per

Internet User

3,905.1M

SPENDING USERS

Worldwide $46 2,267.3M

1. Australia $196 15.5M

2. UK 185 46.8M

3. US 155 239.0M

4. Canada 122 26.4M

5. Germany 118 57.1M

6. Japan 100 95.9M

7. France 79 40.6M

8. S. Korea 66 37.9M

9. Italy 60 31.4M

10. Spain 50 29.8M

The Global Media Intelligence Report Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. vii

$512


Smartphone Users Worldwide 2012 & 2016

South Korea and Australia registered the world’s highest penetration of smartphones in 2012, and Asia-Pacific

boasted some 480 million smartphone users. But North America had by far the largest regional proportion of its

population using smartphones: 36%. Western Europe ranked second by this measure, with over 25% penetration.

Western Europe

Eastern Europe

Asia-Pacific

2012 2016 2012 2016

North America

25.3%

104.9M

USERS

19.3%

81.9M

USERS

12.3%

480.0M

USERS

59.8%

250.4M

USERS

52.7%

223.6M

USERS

27.0%

1,094.0M

USERS

Smartphone User Penetration (% of population)

2012 2016

Worldwide 13.5% Worldwide 30.2%

1. S. Korea 51.0% 1. S. Korea 73.1%

2. Australia 42.1% 2. Japan 72.6%

3. US 36.6% 3. Australia 68.0%

4. Canada 30.6% 4. UK 65.1%

5. UK 30.5% 5. France 58.7%

6. Japan 27.7% 6. US 58.5%

7. France 25.2% 7. Spain 58.3%

8. Italy 24.8% 8. Germany 58.0%

9. Spain 21.8% 9. Italy 56.5%

10. Germany 21.8% 10. Russia 51.7%

Latin America

Middle East & Africa

126.3M

USERS

62.8M

USERS

36.0%

15.0%

90.0M

USERS

184.1M

USERS

Smartphone Users (Millions)

2012 2016

Worldwide 945.8M Worldwide 2,210.0M

1. China* 237.7M 1. China* 510.6M

2. US 115.8M 2. US 192.4M

3. India 75.2M 3. India 177.9M

4. Japan 35.3M 4. Brazil 94.9M

5. Brazil 34.6M 5. Japan 92.0M

6. Russia 25.5M 6. Indonesia 87.4M

7. S. Korea 24.9M 7. Russia 69.9M

8. Indonesia 23.8M 8. Germany 46.8M

9. UK 19.2M 9. Mexico 43.5M

10. Germany 17.7M 10. UK 41.9M

The Global Media Intelligence Report * excluding Hong Kong. Copyright ©2012 eMarketer, Inc. All rights reserved. viii

4.7%

57.4%

208.8M

USERS

39.8%

248.7M

USERS

12.7%


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