MIRHAMI 2030 “Future Images of Food Consumption", Phase

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SECTION II: GLOBAL REPORT SUMMARY & ANALYSIS Mirhami 2030 largest countries in the world. With over 1.3 billion people, is the most populous country in the world. Its capital is Beijing. The area is 9,598,086 or 9,640,821 km². 500 million of 1300 million Chinese live in cities, and government wants that figure to rise to 800 million by 2020. The onechildpolicy from 1977 has had farreaching effects on China’s population structure: the growth rate of total population is declining, but the population still increases year on year, because of the large population base. The Eastern coastline from the Northern Beijing area to Shanghai region and down to the Southern Guangdong province including Hong Kong and Macao are wealthy, densely populated, industrialized areas with the high economic growth rate. Hong Kong is very different from Mainland China. Its 7 million’s population is packed on 1000 m2 area. 20 million tourists visit the country annually. The evermoving Hong Kong is one of leading trendsetters with Asian spices in the world. Hong Kong people adopt very quickly new styles and trends especially within food, clothing and electronic devices areas. Hong Kong is the biggest foreign investor in every region in China. When China is the manufacturing factory Hong Kong is the business integrator (investments, logistics, managerial skills, trading, financing). China’s GDP is over US $2.6 TRILLION. 2.1.5 India India, officially the Republic of India, is a sovereign country in South Asia. It is the seventhlargest country by geographical area, the second most populous country, and the most populous democracy in the world. India is the world’s 4 th largest economy in terms of purchasing power and the 12 th largest economy at market exchange rates. India has made rapid economic progress in the last decade. Although the country’s standard of living is projected to rise sharply in the next halfcentury, it currently battles high levels of poverty, illiteracy, malnutrition, and environmental degradation. A pluralistic, multilingual, and multiethnic society, India is also home to a diversity of wildlife in a variety of protected habitats. With an estimated population of 1.12 billion, India is the world’s second most populous country and is expected to be the most populous by 2030. India’s GDP is over US $ 886 BILLION. 2.1.6 Japan Japan is an island country in East Asia. Located in the Pacific Ocean, it lies to the east of China, Korea and Russia, stretching from the Sea of Okhotsk in the north to the East China Sea in the south. The characters that make up Japan’s name mean “sunorigin”, which is why Japan is sometimes identified as the “Land of the Rising Sun”. Japan comprises over three thousand islands, the largest of which are Honsh, Hokkaid, Kysh and Shikoku, together accounting for 97% of land area. Most of the islands are mountainous, many volcanic; for example, Japan’s highest peak, Mount Fuji, is a volcano. Japan has the world’s tenth largest population, with about 128 million people. The Greater Tokyo Area, which includes the capital city of Tokyo and several surrounding prefectures, is the largest metropolitan area in the world, with over 30 million residents. Japan ranks 2 nd in the world, after the USA, in GDP of over US $ 4.3 TRILLION. © Finpro & Finland Futures Research Centre 18
SECTION II: GLOBAL REPORT SUMMARY & ANALYSIS Mirhami 2030 2.1.7 Production Comparatives – Agriculture The OECD Food, Agriculture and Fisheries (within the Department for Trade and Agriculture) produce a compilation of “Producer and Consumer Support Estimates”. The table below is excerpted from the latest data (2004). Production: Total Value at farm gate Consumption: Total value at farm gate Variance (production less consumption) © Finpro & Finland Futures Research Centre Canada China EU (all) incl. Finland & Germany Japan Russia US CAD $mn LC mn EUR mn ¥ bn Rb mn US $ mn 31,450 2,440,890 250,933 8,904 930,863 225,437 21,548 2,698,029 249,329 13,107.4 1,163,317 206,594 + 9,902 257,139 + 1,604 4,203.4 232,454 + 18,843 Data not available for India. Data for the European Union is combined, not separated. 2004 data except China and Russia (2003 data). By looking only at this table, in 2003/2004 those countries with and excess of agricultural production are the USA, Canada, and Europe. Those countries with an agricultural deficit are China, Japan, and Russia. This conforms to the comments supplied in the 2006 global reports analyzed by Finpro. 2.1.8 Import structures Simple ratios showing the shares of imports as a percent of total final demand, and intermediate consumption in particular, provide an indication of the degree of integration/interdependencies of economies in the global supply chain, although some care is needed in interpretation as flows of intermediate consumption of domestically produced goods are measured gross and because comparisons are not made at constant prices. Nevertheless the tables provide a strong indication that these interdependencies are growing, indeed since the 1990s these ratios have increased in 29 out of 31 countries, with, not surprisingly, a negative correlation between the economic size of a country and these ratios. Country Intermediate Final Demand mid90s early00s mid90s early00s Canada 24.2% 26.4% 18.6% 21.0% * China 7.9% 9.6% 6.4% 7.7% Finland 20.0% 23.9% 15.7% 17.3% Germany 15.3% 20.0% 11.1% 14.8% Japan 6.4% 7.8% 4.7% 5.8% Unites States 6.7% 7.6% 5.8% 6.7% * Russia 12.6% 14.3% 11.7% 13.5% * Non OECD Member, source: OECD IO tables. 19
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SECTION III: IMPACT ON THE FINNISH
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SECTION IV: ASSUMPTIONS & CONCLUSIO
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