Final Report - Asian Development Bank

Asian Development Bank TA7343 Ho Chi Minh City MRT Line 2 Project
MVA Asia Ltd Final Report – November 2010
2.2 Socio-economic and Demographic Circumstances
2.2.1 The last national population census in Vietnam was in 1999. For the purposes of the project
estimates of population at base year (2007) and design years (2015, 2025) were made based
on the projection data in the reports from HOUTRANS 1 and from the Study on the Adjustment
of HCMC Master Plan 2 .
2.2.2 In 2007 the estimated population of Ho Chi Minh City was over 6.5 million, growing at around
2.9% per year. In addition, more than 2.5 million people live in the adjoining provinces of
Long An, Dong Nai and Binh Duong, totalling more than 9 million people in the Study Area. It
is forecast that the Study Area population will reach over 13.8 million by 2025, with 10 million
people in HCMC 3 . Most of the population growth is projected to happen in outer areas (the
urban fringe, suburban and other outlying communities), while the inner core areas are
projected either to decrease their populations (in high density areas) or increase moderately
(in medium/low density areas). Figure 2.2 provides an overview of the estimated populations
for 2007, 2015 and 2025 in the Study Area.
Figure 2.2 Population Estimates for 2007, 2015 and 2025 by Study Area Types
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Population in thousands
1,400
1,300
2,400
2,600
3,000
2,100 2,000
2,900
1,400 2,300 1,500 1,300 2,600
Inner Core - high
density
Inner Core -
med/low density
2-2
3,200
Urban Fringe Suburban Others
2.2.3 In 2007, HCMC employed more than 3 million people and the Study Area almost 4.2 million
people. By 2025, it is projected that HCMC will employ more than 5.5 million people and the
Study Area more than 7.2 million people. While the employment growth is projected to spread
throughout the Study Area ore evenly, the outer areas are still expected to generate most of
the future employment. Figure 2.3 provides a view of the projected employment for 2007,
2015 and 2025 in the Study Area.
2.2.4 Viet Nam was among the world's fastest-growing economies with GDP growth rates above
7.0% in 2001-2004 and above 8.0% in the last three years. In 2008, The GDP growth
forecast was around 8.5%. HCMC is the largest city in Viet Nam and the primary centre of
economic activity and, as such, its GDP growth has outpaced the national level growth:
between 10% and 12% in 2001-2004 and more than 12% in 2004-2007. In the prospective
future HCMC will continue to be the major centre of economic activity of the country.
1
The Study On Urban Transport Master Plan And Feasibility Study In Ho Chi Minh Metropolitan Area
(HOUTRANS), JICA, ALMEC, 2004
2
The Study of the Adjustment of HCMC Master Plan up to 2025, Nikken Sekkei, Urban Planning Institute, April
2007
3
For more details on socio-economic conditions the reader is referred technical documents prepared as part of
the PPTA: Project Context and MRT Master Plan Report, December 2007, and HCMC Master Plan Ridership
and Revenue Forecast Study, Final Report, January 2008.
4,100
2007
2015
2025