US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

couzin.vinny

US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

US Economic Briefing:

High Frequency Indicators

April 11, 2013

Dr. Edward Yardeni

516-972-7683

eyardeni@yardeni.com

Mali Quintana

480-664-1333

aquintana@yardeni.com

Please visit our sites at

www.yardeni.com

blog.yardeni.com

Yardeni Research, Inc.

thinking outside the box


Table Of Contents Table Of Contents

Key Global Indicators 1

Global Boom Bust Barometer 2

US Leading Indicators 3

ECRI 4

Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 5

US Unemployment Claims 6-7

US Petroleum Usage 8

US Electricity Output 9-10

US Railcar Loadings 11-14

US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 15

US Business Credit 16

MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17

US Commercial Paper 18

US Liquid Assets 19-20

US Profits Cycle 21-23

Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500 24

Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 25

April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

Figure 1.

INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index

(1967=100)

Volume of World Exports

(2000=100, sa)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy (CPB).

Figure 2.

- Key Global Indicators -

INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS

CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index*

(1967=100)

Value of World Exports (IMF)

(trillion dollars, annualized, nsa)

Jan

4/10

yardeni.com

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.

Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF.

Page 1 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Jan

4/10

yardeni.com

180

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

21

19

17

15

13

11

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com

9

7

5


140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Figure 3.

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER*

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10.

Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

Figure 4.

YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER COMPONENTS

CRB Raw Industrials

Spot Price Index*

Brent Crude Oil

(dollars per barrel)

- Global Boom Bust Barometer -

4/10

yardeni.com

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

* Times 2 and divided by 10. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow.

Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics.

Page 2 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/10

yardeni.com

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


150

130

110

90

70

50

30

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Figure 5.

LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ECRI Weekly Leading Index

(1992=100, 4-wa)

Conference Board LEI

(2004=100)

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Figure 6.

- US Leading Indicators -

LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

ECRI Weekly Leading Index

(1992=100, 4-wa)

3/29

Feb

yardeni.com

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Page 3 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Conference Board CEI

(2004=100)

3/29

Feb

yardeni.com

150

130

110

90

70

50

30

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


-200

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

ECRI-WLI & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD

(basis points, inverted scale)

Spread*

ECRI Weekly Leading Index

(1992=100)

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

* High yield corporate less 10-year Treasury yield.

Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

0

Figure 7.

Figure 8.

ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 500

S&P 500

ECRI Weekly

Leading Index

(1992=100)

- ECRI -

4/10

3/29

yardeni.com

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI).

Page 4 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/10

yardeni.com

155

150

145

140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

150

145

140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

-140

-160

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

Figure 9.

CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Citigroup.

Figure 10.

CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX

(percent)

Based on US Dollar

4/10

yardeni.com

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source: Citigroup.

- Citigroup Economic Surprise Index -

Based on G10 Currencies

Page 5 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/10

yardeni.com

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

-100

-120

-140

-160

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

Figure 11.

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

(thousands, sa)

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: US Department of Labor.

Figure 12.

- US Unemployment Claims -

INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

(thousands, sa, four-week moving average)

4/6

yardeni.com

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: US Department of Labor.

Page 6 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/6

yardeni.com

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

800

750

700

650

600

550

500

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

(millions, sa)

Continuing

Continuing +

Extended*

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

* Extended claims are nsa.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Figure 13.

Figure 14.

- US Unemployment Claims -

CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS

(millions, sa, four-week moving average)

Number of

Unemployed

Continuing

Continuing +

Extended

3/23

3/30

yardeni.com

73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15

* Extended claims are nsa.

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Page 7 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Mar

3/23

3/30

yardeni.com

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

17

16

15

14

13

12

11

10

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0


22

21

20

19

18

17

16

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

Figure 15.

US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (USAGE)

(million barrels per day, 52-week ma, sa)

yardeni.com

Total

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

* Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products.

Source: US Department of Energy.

Figure 16.

US MOTOR GASOLINE SUPPLIED vs. MILES TRAVELED

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: US Department of Energy.

- US Petroleum Usage -

Page 8 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Gasoline Supplied

(million barrels per day, 52-wa)

Vehicle Miles Traveled

(trillion miles, 12-month sum)

4/5

Jan

4/5

yardeni.com

22

21

20

19

18

17

16

9.5

9.0

8.5

8.0

7.5

7.0

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


80000

78000

76000

74000

72000

70000

68000

66000

64000

62000

60000

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Figure 17.

US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT*

(GW hours, 52-week moving average)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.

Source: Edison Electric Institute.

Figure 18.

US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP

(yearly percent change)

4/6

yardeni.com

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.

Source: Edison Electric Institute.

- US Electricity Output -

Electric Utility Output

(52-week moving average)

Real GDP

Page 9 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Q4

4/6

yardeni.com

80000

78000

76000

74000

72000

70000

68000

66000

64000

62000

60000

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


80000

78000

76000

74000

72000

70000

68000

66000

64000

62000

60000

80000

78000

76000

74000

72000

70000

68000

66000

64000

62000

60000

Figure 19.

US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION

(52-week moving average)

Electricity Output

(GW hours)

Total Manufacturing Production

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.

Source: Edison Electric Institute.

Figure 20.

US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP

(52-week moving average)

4/6

Feb

yardeni.com

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Excluding Hawaii and Alaska.

Source: Edison Electric Institute.

- US Electricity Output -

Electricity Output

(GW hours)

Real GDP

(billion dollars, saar)

Page 10 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Q4

4/6

yardeni.com

105

100

95

90

85

80

75

70

65

14000

13000

12000

11000

10000

9000

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


600

550

500

450

400

400

350

300

250

200

150

Figure 21.

RAILCAR LOADINGS*

(thousand units, 26-wa)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Car loads plus intermodal.

Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor’s.

Figure 22.

RAILCAR LOADINGS

(thousand units, 26-wa)

Total

3/2

yardeni.com

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: Atlantic Systems.

- US Railcar Loadings -

Car Loads

Intermodal

Page 11 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

3/30

3/30

yardeni.com

600

550

500

450

400

400

350

300

250

200

150

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


30

20

10

0

7

6

5

4

3

2

Figure 23.

RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES

yardeni.com

Motor Vehicle

___________

Loadings

(thousand units, 26-wa)

Assemblies

(million units, saar)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Atlantic Systems and Federal Reserve.

Figure 24.

RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Atlantic Systems.

- US Railcar Loadings -

Lumber _____________________

& Wood Products

Loadings

(thousand units, 26-wa, sa)

Housing Starts

(thousand units, saar)

Page 12 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

3/30

Feb

3/30

30

20

10

0

2600

2300

2000

1700

1400

1100

800

500

200

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


160

150

140

130

120

110

44

42

40

38

36

34

32

30

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

Figure 25.

RAILCAR LOADINGS

(thousand units, 26-wa)

Coal

3/30

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Chemicals & Petroleum

Products

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Metals & Products

3/30

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.

- US Railcar Loadings -

3/30

Nonmetallic Minerals

3/30

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

yardeni.com

Page 13 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Pulp & Paper

Products

Waste & Scrap

Materials

3/30

3/30

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

11

10

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com

9

8

7

6


230

210

190

170

150

130

110

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Figure 26.

ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX vs. INTERMODAL CONTAINERS

Trucking Index

(2000=100, sa)

Railcar Loadings:

Intermodal Containers

(thousand units, 26-wa)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems.

Figure 27.

RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS

(thousand units, 26-wa)

yardeni.com

3/30

Feb

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association.

- US Railcar Loadings -

Page 14 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

3/30

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


2200

2100

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

Figure 28.

FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL

(billion dollars)

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

* Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement.

Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics.

Figure 29.

- US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits -

Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes

(260-day sum)

Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus

Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts*

(12-month sum)

FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES

(billion dollars)

Mar

4/9

yardeni.com

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics.

Deposits

(260-day sum)

Receipts

(12-month sum)

Page 15 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/9

Mar

yardeni.com

2200

2100

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

1775

1575

1375

1175

975

775

575

420

380

340

300

260

220

180

140

100

60

Figure 30.

SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES

(billion dollars)

C&I Loans Plus

Nonfinancial

Commercial Paper

(nsa)

Manufacturing & Trade

Inventories

(sa)

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Figure 31.

COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS

(billion dollars, nsa)

NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER

(billion dollars, nsa)

3/27

Jan

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

- US Business Credit -

Page 16 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

3/27

4/10

yardeni.com

2000

1900

1800

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

1775

1575

1375

1175

975

775

575

420

380

340

300

260

220

180

140

100

60

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


550

525

500

475

450

425

400

375

350

325

300

275

250

225

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

Figure 32.

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX vs. SINGLE FAMILY HOME SALES

Mortgage Applications:

New Purchase Index

(4-week average, sa)

New Plus Existing

Single Family Home Sales

(million units, saar)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Mortgage Bankers of America.

Figure 33.

- MBA Mortgage Applications Survey -

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX

(4-week average, sa)

4/5

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association.

Page 17 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/5

yardeni.com

8

7

6

5

4

3

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com

0


2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

1250

1150

1050

950

850

750

650

550

450

350

250

Figure 34.

COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING

(billion dollars, sa)

Total

4/10

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Asset Backed

Total Financial

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

- US Commercial Paper -

Page 18 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/10

4/10

Domestic Financial

Foreign Financial

Foreign Bank (nsa)

4/10

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Nonfinancial

4/10

yardeni.com

02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

250

225

200

175

150

125

100

75

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


10500

10000

9500

9000

8500

8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Figure 35.

LIQUID ASSETS*

(billion dollars, sa, ratio scale)

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &

institutions.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 36.

LIQUID ASSETS*

- US Liquid Assets -

As a percent of

_____________

Wilshire 5000

S&P 500 Market Cap

3/25

yardeni.com

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals &

institutions.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor’s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal.

Page 19 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Mar

3/29

yardeni.com

10500

10000

9500

9000

8500

8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


6900

6500

6100

5700

5300

4900

4500

4100

3700

3300

2900

2500

2100

1700

1300

900

500

100

INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS

(billion dollars, sa)

Savings Deposits (including

Money Market Deposit Accounts)*

84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* Included in M2.

** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

.6

.4

Figure 37.

Figure 38.

MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS

(trillion dollars, sa)

Held By:

_______

Retail*

Institutions**

Total Small Time

Deposits**

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded.

** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2.

Source: Federal Reserve Board.

- US Liquid Assets -

Page 20 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

3/25

3/25

3/25

3/25

yardeni.com

yardeni.com

6900

6500

6100

5700

5300

4900

4500

4100

3700

3300

2900

2500

2100

1700

1300

900

500

100

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com

.8

.6

.4


120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

12

8

4

0

-4

-8

-12

Figure 39.

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

US Coincident Economic Indicators

(2004=100)

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.

Figure 40.

- US Profits Cycle -

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS

(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

US Coincident Economic Indicators

4/4

Feb

yardeni.com

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates. Monthly through 3/94, weekly thereafter.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.

Page 21 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Feb

4/4

yardeni.com

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


6.25

6.00

5.75

5.50

5.25

5.00

4.75

4.50

4.25

4.00

3.75

3.50

3.25

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

-40

Figure 41.

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

(weekly)

Total New Factory Orders

(trillion dollars, saar)

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings

estimates. Monthly through April 1994; weekly thereafter.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

Figure 42.

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS

(yearly percent change)

yardeni.com

- US Profits Cycle -

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

New Factory Orders

(3-ma)

Feb 4/4

yardeni.com

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average

of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Page 22 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Feb

4/4

125

115

105

95

85

75

65

55

45

35

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

-25

-30

-35

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

40

20

0

-20

-40

Figure 43.

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION

(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

US Industrial Production

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average

of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.

Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.

Figure 44.

- US Profits Cycle -

S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS

(yearly percent change)

S&P 500 Forward Earnings*

Aggregate Hours

Feb

4/4

yardeni.com

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

* 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.

Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensus earnings estimates.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

Page 23 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

Mar

4/4

yardeni.com

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

10

5

0

-5

-10

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Figure 45.

BOOM BUST BAROMETER vs. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX

US Boom Bust Barometer*

Consumer Comfort Index

(index plus 100)

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.

Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.

Figure 46.

- Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 500 -

S&P 500 INDEX & YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR

YRI Fundamental Stock

Market Indicator*

S&P 500 Index

4/6

4/6

yardeni.com

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,

four-week moving average.

Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.

Page 24 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/10

4/6

yardeni.com

170

160

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

1700

1600

1500

1400

1300

1200

1100

1000

900

800

700

600

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com


4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

.6

2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Figure 47.

GASOLINE PRICES

(dollars per gallon)

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

* Nearby contract.

Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics.

Figure 48.

BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT

(units)

4/3

National average

pump price (weekly)

Futures price (daily)*

4/10

yardeni.com

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Source: Baker Hughes Inc.

- Gasoline Prices & Rig Count -

Total US

Gas

Oil

Page 25 / April 11, 2013 / US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators

4/5

4/5

4/5

yardeni.com

4.2

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

.8

.6

2400

2200

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

Yardeni Research, Inc.

www.yardeni.com

0


Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2013. All rights reserved. The information

contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not

necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or

warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or

correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other

information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports posted on

www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.com, http://blog.yardeni.com and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones are issued

without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs

of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell

any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide

to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but

should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock.

Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as

recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures

contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.

The text, images, and other materials contained or displayed on any Yardeni Research, Inc.

product, service, report, email or website are proprietary to Yardeni Research, Inc. and

constitute valuable intellectual property. No material from any part of www.yardeni.com,

blog.yardeni.com, http://blog.yardeni.com and YRI’s Apps for iPads and iPhones may be downloaded, transmitted,

broadcast, transferred, assigned, reproduced or in any other way used or otherwise

disseminated in any form to any person or entity, without the explicit written consent of

Yardeni Research, Inc. All unauthorized reproduction or other use of material from Yardeni

Research, Inc. shall be deemed willful infringement(s) of this copyright and other proprietary

and intellectual property rights, including but not limited to, rights of privacy. Yardeni

Research, Inc. expressly reserves all rights in connection with its intellectual property,

including without limitation the right to block the transfer of its products and services and/or

to track usage thereof, through electronic tracking technology, and all other lawful means,

now known or hereafter devised. Yardeni Research, Inc. reserves the right, without further

notice, to pursue to the fullest extent allowed by the law any and all criminal and civil

remedies for the violation of its rights.

The recipient should check any email and any attachments for the presence of viruses.

Yardeni Research, Inc. accepts no liability for any damage caused by any virus transmitted

by this company’s emails, website, blog and Apps. Additional information available on

request.

requests@yardeni.com

Similar magazines