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World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk -

Climate Change as a Security Risk German Advisory Council on Global Change (WBGU) R. Schubert H. J. Schellnhuber N. Buchmann A. Epiney R. Grießhammer M. Kulessa D. Messner S. Rahmstorf J. Schmid

  • Page 3 and 4: Climate Change as a Security Risk
  • Page 5 and 6: German Advisory Council on Global C
  • Page 7 and 8: Scientific Staff at the Secretariat
  • Page 9 and 10: Contents Council Staff and Acknowle
  • Page 11 and 12: Contents 6 Conflict constellations
  • Page 13 and 14: Contents 8 Climate change as a driv
  • Page 15 and 16: Boxes Box 1 Climate change amplifie
  • Page 17 and 18: Figures Figure 1 Security risks ass
  • Page 19 and 20: Acronyms and Abbreviations AA Ausw
  • Page 21: Acronyms and Abbreviations SOZ Shan
  • Page 24 and 25: 2 Summary for Policy-makers Box 1 C
  • Page 26 and 27: 4 Summary for Policy-makers Conflic
  • Page 28 and 29: 6 Summary for Policy-makers to mana
  • Page 30 and 31: 8 Summary for Policy-makers Climate
  • Page 32 and 33: 10 Summary for Policy-makers water
  • Page 34 and 35: 12 Summary for Policy-makers Financ
  • Page 37 and 38: Introduction 1 It is not predicting
  • Page 39: Not all countries or regions of the
  • Page 42 and 43: 20 2 Environmental change in securi
  • Page 44 and 45: 22 2 Environmental change in securi
  • Page 47 and 48: Known conflict impacts of environme
  • Page 49 and 50: ing countries where they assumed an
  • Page 51 and 52: flict situations, and assessing the
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    3.2 World map of past environmental

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    Figure 3.2-3 Environmental conflict

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    daily living, such as food and clot

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    tries in which the gap between the

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    3.3.5 International distribution of

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    4.1 Introduction Rising conflict ri

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    constitutional theory and an end in

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    storm and flood disasters can be a

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    interdependencies, there is a stron

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    competition with other industrializ

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    peace missions, the People’s Repu

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    Erosion of multilateralism through

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    This section discusses expected cli

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    -0.4 0 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 2.0 [°C] Fi

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    1990. The basic pattern of the glob

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    -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 10 20 30 40 50

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    Figure 5.1-9 Global sea-level rise

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    Box 5.2-1 Water shortages affecting

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    orne out in the case of woodlands t

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    Erosion by wind and water is alread

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    the global mean temperature rise ex

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    land ice sheet, which, via positive

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    the ice sheet could melt completely

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    78 6 Conflict constellations Box 6.

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    80 6 Conflict constellations Box 6.

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    82 6 Conflict constellations enhanc

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    84 6 Conflict constellations tion,

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    86 6 Conflict constellations ical s

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    88 6 Conflict constellations rises

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    90 6 Conflict constellations states

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    92 6 Conflict constellations greenh

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    94 6 Conflict constellations The sc

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    96 6 Conflict constellations world

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    98 6 Conflict constellations of the

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    100 6 Conflict constellations Final

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    102 6 Conflict constellations Durba

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    104 6 Conflict constellations 6.4.2

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    106 6 Conflict constellations ation

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    108 6 Conflict constellations Disas

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    110 6 Conflict constellations it on

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    112 6 Conflict constellations In th

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    114 6 Conflict constellations Aroun

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    116 6 Conflict constellations ernan

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    118 6 Conflict constellations of po

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    120 6 Conflict constellations 6.5.2

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    122 6 Conflict constellations becom

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    124 6 Conflict constellations techn

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    126 6 Conflict constellations in Ni

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    128 6 Conflict constellations natio

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    Building upon the analysis of globa

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    Canada, the larger islands such as

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    intra-community conflicts in Morocc

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    tion, leading to an increase in bot

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    of the year, so absolute changes wi

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    climate change will not necessarily

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    political independence, these diffe

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    in the environmental field. There a

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    of China that is threatened by incr

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    degradation and the loss of arable

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    groups, the central government and

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    unresolved social problems of the r

  • Page 177 and 178:

    Clearing of the Amazon rainforest (

  • Page 179 and 180:

    Climate change as a driver of socia

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    opment. This can entrench developme

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    a b Interactions driven by the ‘S

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    Conflict constellations in selected

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    Time lag: The time dimension presen

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    It can also be assumed that constru

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    ance system as a whole. If an effec

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    climate impacts (Chapter 5 and Sect

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    in the face of accelerating climate

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    Box 8.3-2 Security threats in the 2

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    9.1 Understanding the climate-secur

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    Socio-economic consequences of clim

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    perspective is capable of deliverin

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    instruments for stabilizing weak an

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    on the availability of robust, regi

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    Adaptation strategies for coastal c

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    10.1 WBGU’s key findings In the p

  • Page 213 and 214:

    10.2 Scope for action on the part o

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    The window of opportunity for clima

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    to change the global discourse, and

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    e held since the appointment of Ach

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    10.3.2.2 Initiative 4: Transforming

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    tation, among decision-makers and t

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    further destabilization, jeopardizi

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    sive, pro-active and development-or

  • Page 229 and 230:

    ened, with the aim of achieving ful

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    Table 10.3-2 Overview of the instru

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    provided in the Funds should be new

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    Window missed - mitigation failed:

  • Page 238 and 239:

    216 11 References O’Leary, M (ed)

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    218 11 References Cassel-Gintz, M (

  • Page 242 and 243:

    220 11 References Faist, T (2005) T

  • Page 244 and 245:

    222 11 References Hagmann, T (2005)

  • Page 246 and 247:

    224 11 References Internationalen B

  • Page 248 and 249:

    226 11 References Lonergan, S (1998

  • Page 250 and 251:

    228 11 References 0,2340,en_2649_20

  • Page 252 and 253:

    230 11 References Scheffer, M, Brov

  • Page 254 and 255:

    232 11 References UNDP (United Nati

  • Page 256 and 257:

    234 11 References World Bank (2006e

  • Page 258 and 259:

    236 12 Glossary sis and ’conflict

  • Page 260 and 261:

    238 12 Glossary Good governance A c

  • Page 262 and 263:

    240 12 Glossary lateralism, by cont

  • Page 264 and 265:

    242 12 Glossary United Nations Envi

  • Page 266 and 267:

    244 13 Index conflicts 27, 66, 79,

  • Page 268 and 269:

    246 13 Index migration 27, 31, 72,

  • Page 270:

    248 13 Index - water resources 64,

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