World in Transition: Climate Change as a Security Risk - WBGU

Contents
Council Staff and Acknowledgments ..................................................................................................................... V
Contents ................................................................................................................................................................. VII
Boxes ..................................................................................................................................................................... XIII
Tables .................................................................................................................................................................... XIV
Figures .................................................................................................................................................................... XV
Acronyms and Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................... XVII
Summary for Policy-makers ..................................................................................................................................... 1
1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................................................... 15
2 Environmental change in security discourse ................................................................................................. 19
2.1 Redefining security ............................................................................................................................... 19
2.1.1 Comprehensive security ....................................................................................................... 19
2.1.2 Human security ...................................................................................................................... 20
2.2 Current security policy strategies ...................................................................................................... 21
2.3 WBGU’s aims and use of terms .......................................................................................................... 22
3 Known conflict impacts of environmental change ....................................................................................... 25
3.1 State of conflict research at the interface of environment and security ........................................ 25
3.1.1 Environment and conflict research ...................................................................................... 25
3.1.1.1 The Toronto group around Homer-Dixon .......................................................... 26
3.1.1.2 The Zurich group around Bächler and Spillmann ............................................. 27
3.1.1.3 The Oslo group around Gleditsch ....................................................................... 28
3.1.1.4 The Irvine group around Matthew ...................................................................... 28
3.1.1.5 The German research scene and WBGU’s syndrome approach .................... 29
3.1.1.6 Fundamental critique of environment and conflict research .......................... 29
3.1.1.7 Key findings from environment and conflict research ..................................... 30
3.2 World map of past environmental conflicts ...................................................................................... 31
3.2.1 Resource conflicts over land, soil, water and biodiversity ..................................................31
3.2.2 Conflict-related impacts of storm and flood disasters ...................................................... 31
3.3 War and conflict research ................................................................................................................... 35
3.3.1 Regime type, political stability and governance structures ............................................... 35