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Medium Term<br />

The Logic Chain<br />

Sec<strong>to</strong>r Strategy<br />

Inputs Activities Outputs Outcomes Impacts<br />

Ongoing Ongoing Short-Term Medium-Term Long-Term<br />

Assumptions Assumptions<br />

Medium-Term<br />

Objectives<br />

Assumptions<br />

30<br />

Assumptions<br />

Long Term<br />

Strategic Plan<br />

Longer-Term<br />

Goals<br />

We make assumptions at each stage that a link will occur – the “Logic<br />

Chain” that underpins the Results Chain. The one in red is <strong>of</strong>ten the<br />

most unreliable link, <strong>of</strong>ten leading <strong>to</strong> unintended consequences, rather<br />

than the desired policy outcome.<br />

“Backcasting” the Results Chain<br />

The Results Chain is normally a forecast <strong>of</strong> future<br />

events / results. But it can be used the other way<br />

round, starting with Outcomes and arguing back <strong>to</strong> what<br />

outputs would be needed <strong>to</strong> generate the outcomes<br />

(plus assumptions), then what activities and inputs<br />

would be needed <strong>to</strong> produce these outputs.<br />

This is the normal technique when “tracing your way<br />

backwards” and is needed a lot in M&E planning.

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