Surry sheriffreprimanded, responds to county property allegations

Page 4 www.elkintribune.com Monday, December 26, 2011
THE TRIBUNE
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You Decide: What explains
N.C. economic paradox?
Most people judge the economy by the job
market, and certainly the job news in North
Carolina during the last few years has been
challenging. For 34 straight months beginning
in January 2009, our state has had an
unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted)
above 9 percent, and in 23 of those months
the rate was over 10 percent. Today there are
more than 300,000 fewer jobs than there were
in early 2008, and although there’s been job
growth since 2010, the growth rate has been
quite low, at 0.6 percent.
And what’s more worrisome to many is that
the state’s job situation has underperformed
the national numbers. In the last three years,
North Carolina’s unemployment rate has been
higher than the national rate in all but one
month. Also, since the beginning of 2010, the
nation has added jobs at a rate three times
Mike Walden
Op/Ed
faster than North Carolina (1.8 percent versus 0.6 percent), and even
the national growth is sluggish.
So this isn’t a very positive picture for North Carolina. But what if I
told you another broad measure of the economy actually shows North
Carolina performing much better and even better than the nation for
two straight years? This would give us some hope.
The good news is that such a measure does exist, and it gives a much
more upbeat view of our state’s economy. The measure is “gross domestic
product,” usually shortened to GDP. It calibrates the value of what is
produced in an economy, and the measure is available for the nation as
well as all states. Unfortunately, we don’t yet have 2011 GDP information
available, so my comparisons are based on 2009 and 2010 data.
The worst of the recession occurred in 2009, so it shouldn’t be a surprise
that GDP fell in both the nation and in North Carolina during that
year. But GDP fell less (2 percent) in our state compared to the national
drop (2.5 percent). Fortunately, 2010 was a growth year for GDP, and
once again North Carolina did better, with our state GDP rising onethird
faster than national GDP.
These results create an economic paradox. While North Carolina has
performed better than the nation in the past two years by a broad measure
of production (GDP), the state’s job market has lagged national
trends. Why?
There are several possible answers. Usually it takes time — especially
when the economy is coming out of a recession — for increases in output
to translate into increases in jobs. One reason is that businesses
must be convinced the economic improvement is permanent, so they
will hold off on hiring until they are certain the recovery is for real.
Yet there’s no requirement that the time between output improvements
and hiring is the same in North Carolina as in the nation. In fact,
traditionally the time span between output improvements and jobs has
been longer in North Carolina. For example, in the economic expansion
of the 2000s (2002-07), employment growth was faster in North
Carolina than in the nation over the entire period, but it was slower in
the first three years.
Job growth in North Carolina could also be lagging due to the continued
downsizing in some of the state’s traditional industries. Tobacco,
textiles and furniture, which dominated the North Carolina economy
for almost a century, have been cutting output and jobs during the last
30 years. These changes have occurred in both expansionary and recessionary
periods.
However, trends since early 2010 don’t suggest this downsizing has
been a big factor in the state’s job market. Since then, cuts in tobacco
and textile (including apparel) jobs have been relatively small, accounting
for only 0.1 percent of all state jobs. The furniture industry has actually
added some jobs in the last two years.
This brings us to an explanation for the North Carolina economic
paradox that can be a short-run negative but a long-run plus: worker productivity.
During and immediately after recessions, businesses strive to
use their workers smarter and more efficiently; that is, to improve output
per worker. This can be done by improving production techniques,
using better technology and upgrading equipment and machinery. Indeed,
spending on technology, machinery and equipment has been a
strong factor in the recent economy.
North Carolina is one of the leading states in worker productivity. In
2010 (latest year available), the state ranked 11th among all states in a
broad measure of worker productivity. Also, from 2009 to 2010, North
Carolina’s worker productivity improved twice as fast as the national
rate.
Obviously, if two people can do the work that three used to accomplish,
job gains will be slower in the short run. This could be what has
been happening in North Carolina and may be one reason for the state’s
economic paradox.
Yet there can be a silver lining. Businesses like to locate where worker
productivity is high. So the payoff for the state may be a burst of jobs
down the road. I know many people are waiting, and I’m hopeful it will
happen, but you decide!
Dr. Mike Walden is a William Neal Reynolds Professor and North
Carolina Cooperative Extension economist in the Department of Agricultural
and Resource Economics of N.C. State University’s College
of Agriculture and Life Sciences. He teaches and writes on personal
finance, economic outlook and public policy. The College of Agriculture
and Life Sciences communications unit provides his You Decide column
every two weeks. Previous columns are available at http://www.cals.
ncsu.edu/agcomm/news-center/tag/you-decide
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Opinion & Viewpoints
What goes around comes around
TV once featured on Sunday
nights a furry, four-footed hero, Lassie,
a collie who would rescue the cute
little-boy star when he got trapped
in abandoned mines and such. During
this time I had Toby, a mutt who,
whenever I approached, would go
limp, lie down on his back and do absolutely
nothing. Not hero material.
So dogs became boring to me
when I was a kid, and after Toby died
I did not get another dog nor did I
ask for one.
So, surprise, not long ago here
comes the Better Half announcing
that we were expecting a blessed
event. No, we were not becoming
parents in our old age, Abraham-and-
Sarah style. Instead, Half announced we were getting
a puppy.
Now this news was a good-enough miracle in itself,
as Half does not take to dogs and had declared
many times that we would never have another dog.
Meanwhile, over the years I have grown to love
dogs, and I had grown particularly fond of a Dalmatian
whom, after 10 wonderful years together, I lost
two years ago to cancer.
But a daughter-in-law had come into possession
of a litter some time after the mother dog had
somehow gotten out of the fence and went AWOL
for four days. The resultant litter got whittled
down to just one passed-over pup that the stepson
had threatened to take to the pound because he refused
to keep a second dog.
So the daughter-in-law pleaded and Half gave in
all too easily. And we get a new dog. “I’ll try to take
more of an interest in this one,” Half promised me.
So I found myself getting up one morning after
the grandkids were off to school and driving over
to their place to steal away the rescue pup. The
kids had put up a fuss about it, I had heard.
I had seen the litter just once, before the pups
had opened their eyes, so I had no idea what I
would find, which pup I would be picking up or
what I was getting myself into.
Since no one was home, I helped myself to the
unlocked backyard gate. Soon enough here come
running the white mutt momma dog and just
Stephen Harris
Back in the Hometown
behind her a streak of black. The pup
jumped up on my shin, up and down,
up and down. I walked over to the steps
to sit down and take a closer look.
The rottweiler-mix pup immediately
jumped up on my lap and got close and
personal.
Two brown spots over the eyes and a
profile fired up my old memories. The
pup was a spitting image of Toby, from
50 years before.
Suddenly I was in a second childhood.
Now this is not a story of an old man
dreamily reliving some sweet childhood
memories. Truth be told, I don’t remember
much about Toby. I have one photo,
of me about 5 years old wearing a little
sailor’s hat that I got at the beach and
Toby lying in front of me with belly upturned. Toby
didn’t last long after that. I don’t even remember
what happened to him.
All that I do remember is that whenever I approached
Toby he would just lie down just like in
the photo, frozen. I would rub his belly, a lot, because
that was the only thing within reach.
So now I get up in the mornings and go out back.
There is the pup – I tried to call him Toe, in memory
of Toby, but that idea got vetoed. Toby-In-Miniature
is trying to climb the fence. He is running
around. He is jumping in and out of my lap. He
can’t decide whether to play or eat, running back
and forth, back and forth, between me and the dog
dish. My surviving Dalmatian looks annoyed. The
energetic pup acts the exact opposite of mild Toby.
When the pup does finally settle down for a good
petting, I stroke his soft back, then run my fingers
around the base of his ears. And then he rolls over
on his side – not on his back Toby-style – and there
is a fat little puppy belly to rub.
And I am taken back to the old homeplace up in
State Road with the spacious back and side yards.
And there is Toby again as I sit cross-legged and
stoking that dog’s belly.
And now I know the meaning of the adage what
goes around comes around.
***********
Stephen Harris returned home to live in State
Road