final_program_abstracts[1]

More documents

Recommendations

Info

11 IMSC Session Program Climate scenario forecasting and related uncertainties Wednesday - Parallel Session 2 Natalia Andronova University of Michigan, USA Climate projection uncertainties are not solely related to the uncertainties in the projection of human activities in terms of changing atmospheric composition and models’ structural inaccuracies, but also in terms of the uncertain behavior of natural climaterelated factors. Through the use of a combination of observations and existing model simulations, this paper investigates ways of compiling climate scenario for attribution of the future climate change. Abstracts 183
11 IMSC Session Program Are current flaws in Bayesian approaches to climate projection fatal? Wednesday - Parallel Session 2 Leonard A Smith London School of Economics, London, UK Pembroke College, Oxford, UK Bayesian approaches to the statistical analysis of observational data relevant to climate science offer tremendous advantages both to the science and to decision makers. When applied to climate projections with an eye to supplying conditional probabilities for adaptation or mitigation, on the other hand, in-practice Bayesian approaches can be expected to yield false confidence and poor decision support. Fatal flaws in currently deployed methods, such as the estimation of an irrelevant "discrepancy" term, are illustrated in a simple celestial mechanics example. Here an ensemble of Newtonian models is deployed in an application solvable given the theory of general relativity, but in which the discrepancy term estimated from an ensemble of Newtonian models yields false over-confidence and poor decision support. A relevant point here is that one may be able to identify the estimated discrepancy as irrelevant long before one can rectify the physics. The empirical inadequacy of the Newtonian model was identified 50 years before the proposal of general relatively; similarly we do not expect the empirical inadequacy of today's climate models to be rectified for decades. The general prospects of the Bayesian approach in the context of physical science questions involving extrapolation of systems best modeled as nonlinear, with access only to empirically inadequate models, are discussed. Bayes' rule is, of course, never called into question; the heart of the matter here does not lie in a divide between competing tribes of statisticians, but rather with the rational interpretation and inpractice interpretation of physical models by physical scientists. For risk management in climate-like problems, ambiguity (second order uncertainty) can limit the relevance of Bayes' rule to the questions on the table: can we find a Bayesian path relevant to decision makers in the time available? Abstracts 184
Page 2 and 3:
Bus map of city centre
Page 4 and 5:
Edinburgh Centre to Pollock Halls A
Page 7 and 8:
Tips and advice for travelling in E
Page 9 and 10:
Information for Presenters: for pos
Page 11 and 12:
11 IMSC Session Program 11 IMSC Ses
Page 13 and 14:
11 IMSC Session Program Monday, Jul
Page 15 and 16:
11 IMSC Session Program 15:15 - 15:
Page 17 and 18:
Page 19 and 20:
Page 21 and 22:
Page 23 and 24:
Page 25 and 26:
Page 27 and 28:
Page 29 and 30:
11 IMSC Session Program Thursday, J
Page 31 and 32:
Page 33 and 34:
11 IMSC Session Program Evaluation
Page 35 and 36:
11 IMSC Session Program Friday, Jul
Page 37 and 38:
11 IMSC Session Program 18. Markus
Page 39 and 40:
Page 41 and 42:
11 IMSC Session Program Are there l
Page 43 and 44:
11 IMSC Session Program HOMER: A hi
Page 45 and 46:
11 IMSC Session Program Softcore an
Page 47 and 48:
11 IMSC Session Program Towards the
Page 49 and 50:
11 IMSC Session Program Past sea le
Page 51 and 52:
11 IMSC Session Program Vidal, J.-P
Page 53 and 54:
11 IMSC Session Program precipitati
Page 55 and 56:
11 IMSC Session Program Structural
Page 57 and 58:
11 IMSC Session Program Modeling an
Page 59 and 60:
11 IMSC Session Program Probabilist
Page 61 and 62:
11 IMSC Session Program Multi-model
Page 63 and 64:
11 IMSC Session Program Climate var
Page 65 and 66:
11 IMSC Session Program Reconstruct
Page 67 and 68:
11 IMSC Session Program Variational
Page 69 and 70:
11 IMSC Session Program Intercompar
Page 71 and 72:
11 IMSC Session Program Gridding of
Page 73 and 74:
11 IMSC Session Program Reconstruct
Page 75 and 76:
11 IMSC Session Program A new algor
Page 77 and 78:
11 IMSC Session Program Assessing c
Page 79 and 80:
11 IMSC Session Program importance
Page 81 and 82:
11 IMSC Session Program Changing th
Page 83 and 84:
11 IMSC Session Program Probabilist
Page 85 and 86:
11 IMSC Session Program Mechanistic
Page 87 and 88:
11 IMSC Session Program Quantifying
Page 89 and 90:
11 IMSC Session Program Deriving dy
Page 91 and 92:
11 IMSC Session Program A new monso
Page 93 and 94:
11 IMSC Session Program Extreme var
Page 95 and 96:
11 IMSC Session Program Cai, W., A.
Page 97 and 98:
11 IMSC Session Program Uncertainti
Page 99 and 100:
11 IMSC Session Program How good do
Page 101 and 102:
11 IMSC Session Program Bridging th
Page 103 and 104:
11 IMSC Session Program Climate cha
Page 105 and 106:
11 IMSC Session Program The Variati
Page 107 and 108:
11 IMSC Session Program Calibrating
Page 109 and 110:
11 IMSC Session Program Analysis of
Page 111 and 112:
11 IMSC Session Program Statistical
Page 113 and 114:
11 IMSC Session Program No title pr
Page 115 and 116:
11 IMSC Session Program The survey
Page 117 and 118:
11 IMSC Session Program Detecting s
Page 119 and 120:
11 IMSC Session Program Measure-cor
Page 121 and 122:
11 IMSC Session Program Trend evalu
Page 123 and 124:
11 IMSC Session Program Methodologi
Page 125 and 126:
11 IMSC Session Program Trends in d
Page 127 and 128:
11 IMSC Session Program Assimilatio
Page 129 and 130:
11 IMSC Session Program - monthly a
Page 131 and 132:
11 IMSC Session Program Non-linear
Page 133 and 134:
11 IMSC Session Program What can we
Page 135 and 136:
11 IMSC Session Program Constructin
Page 137 and 138:
11 IMSC Session Program An intercom
Page 139 and 140:
11 IMSC Session Program Historical
Page 141 and 142:
11 IMSC Session Program Variance-pr
Page 143 and 144: 11 IMSC Session Program A Bayesian
Page 145 and 146: 11 IMSC Session Program CORDEX: Dev
Page 147 and 148: 11 IMSC Session Program Downscaling
Page 149 and 150: 11 IMSC Session Program Constructin
Page 151 and 152: 11 IMSC Session Program A functiona
Page 155 and 156: 11 IMSC Session Program Constructio
Page 157 and 158: 11 IMSC Session Program Intercompar
Page 159 and 160: 11 IMSC Session Program Detecting a
Page 161 and 162: 11 IMSC Session Program New techniq
Page 163 and 164: 11 IMSC Session Program detected wi
Page 165 and 166: 11 IMSC Session Program New develop
Page 167 and 168: 11 IMSC Session Program A change po
Page 169 and 170: 11 IMSC Session Program The analysi
Page 171 and 172: 11 IMSC Session Program Memory in c
Page 173 and 174: 11 IMSC Session Program Blending an
Page 175 and 176: 11 IMSC Session Program Bowen, A. a
Page 177 and 178: 11 IMSC Session Program Statistical
Page 179 and 180: 11 IMSC Session Program Vidal, J.-P
Page 181 and 182: 11 IMSC Session Program Classificat
Page 185 and 186: 11 IMSC Session Program Impact of c
Page 187 and 188: 11 IMSC Session Program Comparison
Page 189 and 190: 11 IMSC Session Program When is a m
Page 191 and 192: 11 IMSC Session Program Objective a
Page 193: 11 IMSC Session Program Weighting o
Page 197 and 198: 11 IMSC Session Program Uncertainty
Page 199 and 200: 11 IMSC Session Program Verifying e
Page 201 and 202: 11 IMSC Session Program The metaver
Page 203 and 204: 11 IMSC Session Program An intercom
Page 205 and 206: 11 IMSC Session Program Use of hidd
Page 207 and 208: 11 IMSC Session Program Analysis of
Page 209 and 210: 11 IMSC Session Program Volcanoes a
Page 213 and 214: 11 IMSC Session Program No title pr
Page 215 and 216: 11 IMSC Session Program Intermitten
Page 219 and 220: 11 IMSC Session Program No title pr
Page 223 and 224: 11 IMSC Session Program Enhanced ev
Page 225 and 226: 11 IMSC Session Program A comparati
Page 227 and 228: 11 IMSC Session Program Wavelet and
Page 229 and 230: 11 IMSC Session Program Understandi
Page 231 and 232: 11 IMSC Session Program curve signa
Page 233 and 234: 11 IMSC Session Program Novel advan
Page 235 and 236: 11 IMSC Session Program Skill in la
Page 237 and 238: 11 IMSC Session Program Evaluating
Page 239 and 240: 11 IMSC Session Program for each mo
Page 241 and 242: 11 IMSC Session Program Designing e
Page 243 and 244: 11 IMSC Session Program Multi-model
Page 245 and 246:
11 IMSC Session Program Using a per
Page 247 and 248:
11 IMSC Session Program Present-day
Page 249 and 250:
11 IMSC Session Program Model evalu
Page 251 and 252:
11 IMSC Session Program Constrainin
Page 253 and 254:
11 IMSC Session Program Forecast en
Page 255 and 256:
11 IMSC Session Program How can RCM
Page 257 and 258:
11 IMSC Session Program Extreme var
Page 259 and 260:
11 IMSC Session Program Extreme val
Page 261 and 262:
11 IMSC Session Program Detecting c
Page 263 and 264:
11 IMSC Session Program Subsampling
Page 265 and 266:
11 IMSC Session Program Predicting
Page 267 and 268:
11 IMSC Session Program Detection o
Page 269 and 270:
Page 271 and 272:
11 IMSC Session Program On the stat
Page 273 and 274:
11 IMSC Session Program A relaxes B
Page 275 and 276:
11 IMSC Session Program The limited
Page 277 and 278:
11 IMSC Session Program Prediction
Page 279 and 280:
11 IMSC Session Program Towards sys
Page 281 and 282:
11 IMSC Session Program The MVL dia
Page 283 and 284:
11 IMSC Session Program SVD on ICE
Page 285 and 286:
11 IMSC Session Program Crossing cr
Page 287 and 288:
11 IMSC Session Program Water resou
Page 289 and 290:
11 IMSC Session Program The spread
Page 291 and 292:
Page 293 and 294:
11 IMSC Session Program Towards an
Page 295 and 296:
11 IMSC Session Program Trends in E
Page 297 and 298:
11 IMSC Session Program Climate cha
Page 299 and 300:
11 IMSC Session Program Shift of se
Page 301 and 302:
11 IMSC Session Program Implication
Page 303 and 304:
11 IMSC Session Program Bottom-up v
Page 305 and 306:
11 IMSC Session Program Attributing
Page 307 and 308:
11 IMSC Session Program Monitoring
Page 309 and 310:
11 IMSC Session Program Anthropogen
Page 311 and 312:
Page 313 and 314:
11 IMSC Session Program Variability
Page 315 and 316:
11 IMSC Session Program Spatial pat
Page 317 and 318:
11 IMSC Session Program An analysis
Page 319 and 320:
11 IMSC Session Program Changes on
Page 321 and 322:
11 IMSC Session Program Can gridded
Page 323 and 324:
11 IMSC Session Program Estimating
Page 325 and 326:
11 IMSC Session Program The limits
Page 327 and 328:
11 IMSC Session Program Variability
Page 329 and 330:
11 IMSC Session Program Nonparametr
Page 331 and 332:
11 IMSC Session Program exception,
Page 333 and 334:
Page 335 and 336:
11 IMSC Session Program Change in t
Page 337 and 338:
Page 339 and 340:
11 IMSC Session Program Comparison
Page 341 and 342:
11 IMSC Session Program Storm activ
Page 343 and 344:
11 IMSC Session Program Comparison
Page 345 and 346:
11 IMSC Session Program Modelling e
Page 347 and 348:
11 IMSC Session Program European we
Page 349 and 350:
11 IMSC Session Program Regression
Page 351 and 352:
11 IMSC Session Program 3 Keef, C.,
Page 353 and 354:
11 IMSC Session Program New indices
Page 355 and 356:
11 IMSC Session Program Sources of
Page 357 and 358:
11 IMSC Session Program sites in th
Page 359 and 360:
11 IMSC Session Program Communicati
Page 361 and 362:
11 IMSC Session Program Detection a
Page 363 and 364:
11 IMSC Session Program Comparing t
Page 365 and 366:
11 IMSC Session Program Spatial cha
Page 367 and 368:
11 IMSC Session Program Ocean heat
Page 369 and 370:
11 IMSC Session Program Observation
Page 371 and 372:
11 IMSC Session Program Multi-model
show all

final_program_abstracts[1]

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?