final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
The metaverification minefield
Wednesday - Parallel Session 11
Ian Jolliffe and David Stephenson
University of Exeter, UK
A common approach in forecast verification is to construct a numerical score that
measures the relative quality of different forecasts. For a given type of forecast data
there are typically a number of possible scores or measures that can be used. A
question that then arises is how to choose between candidate scores. For this purpose
a number of properties of scores were defined in the 1980s and 1990s, by Allan
Murphy and others, which it is deemed that ‘good’ scores should possess. This
exercise of looking at properties of scores is known as metaverification.
It has become increasingly apparent that metaverification is a complex topic, with
properties such as propriety, equitability and consistency having a number of hidden
subtleties. Some of these are explored in this presentation, including the
incompatibility of propriety and equitability, and the non-equitability of the ‘equitable
threat score’.
Abstracts 190