final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
guarantees the most robust results. In addition, the authors have developed a method
for the derivation of continuous time-dependent probability density functions called
structure-oriented time-series analysis which we will also explain.
In addition to the above mention methods, the project will focus on two other
important aspects. First of all, the quality of the climate projection data will be
investigated thoroughly with the aid of DWD's comprehensive climate data archive.
For the inference of future changes only those statistics will be used for which the
control runs of the individual climate projections have been successfully evaluated
before. Furthermore, geostatistical methods will be applied in order to determine the
smallest spatial scale on which results are still statistically significant.
[1] Beniston, M., D. Stephenson, O. Christensen, C. Ferro, C. frei, S. Goyette, K.
Halsnaes, T. Holt, K. Jylhä, B. Koffi, J. Palutikof, R. Schöll, T. Semmler, and K.
Woth, 2007: Future exteme events in European Climate: an exploration of regional
climate models. Climatic Change, 81, 71-95. DOI 10.1007/s10584-006-9226-z
[2] Umweltbundesamt, 2005: Climate Change 07/05 – Berechnung der
Wahrscheinlichkeiten für das Eintreten von Extremereignissen durch
Klimaänderungen – Schwerpunkt Deutschland – Aurthors: Jonas, M., T. Staeger, C.
D. Schönwiese
Abstracts 307