final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
The annual cycle of intensity and frequency of extreme
precipitation events across the UK in observations and future
projections
Friday - Poster Session 7
Anne Schindler 1 , Douglas Maraun 1,2 and Jürg Luterbacher 1
1
Department of Geography, University of Giessen, Germany
2
Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East
Anglia, UK
To assess possible future impacts of extreme precipitation it is necessary to study
intensity and frequency of extreme events together with their spatial and temporal
occurrence throughout the year. Especially in a downscaling process it is important to
model intensity and occurrence frequency independently to use large-scale predictors
for daily extreme events.
We design a statistical model based on extreme value statistics (EVS). We formulate
the extreme precipitation process as a point process as the block maxima and the peak
over threshold approach both cannot model occurrence and intensity combined. By
fitting it to data from 689 british rain gauges we study the spacial pattern of the annual
cycle of intensity and frequency respectively.
Furthermore we evaluate the representation of the annual cycle of frequency and
intensity in the 25km resolution ENSEMBLES RMCs. With the help of these climate
models we investigate changes of the annual cycle for the SRES scenario A1B.
Abstracts 325