final_program_abstracts[1]

11 IMSC Session Program
A new statistical framework for analysing multi-model
ensembles
Monday - Plenary Session 9
Jonathan Rougier
University of Bristol, UK
In climate science, the standard approach for combining evaluations from different
climate models is to treat them similarly to climate observations. This is tractable, but
does not accord with the way that climate scientists interpret climate model output. At
issue is whether there is a 'right' factorisation of the joint distribution of climate model
evaluations, climate, and climate observations. Our factorisation is based on the
notion that a subset of the climate models may be treated as second-order
exchangeable, and that climate respect this exchangeability
Abstracts 35