The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks The Scarcity Trap: material ...

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FACULTY FACULTIES FACULTY FACULTIES OF OF OTHER ENVIRONMENT and d ENGINEERING
The Scarcity Trap: material bottlenecks
on the road to low-carbon infrastructure
Phil Purnell (iRI (iRI, School of Civil Engineering)
Katy Roelich (iRI & SRI, School of Earth & Environment)
Julia Steinberger (SRI)
DDavid id D Dawson (iRI) (iRI), JJonathan th BBusch h (SRI)
Resilience and Society: Energy Infrastructure: U Northumbria, 26 Apr 2012

Changing infrastructure
• 500 projects; £250 billion
• environmental impacts –
reducing the carbon intensity
• The nature of our national
infrastructure needs to be a
primary driver in the move
towards a low carbon
economy …infrastructure
must also be adaptable… to
meet changing demand
through the adoption of new
technologies and materials
2

Changing material mix
• Embedding new low CO 2
technology will introduce
critical materials into
infrastructure: e.g.
• Nd - motors/generators for wind
turbines & electric vehicles
• Cr –low CO 2 reinforced concrete
• Not just elements: e.g. aggregates,
components, lubricants,
polymers polymers…
http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm
3

Changing material mix
• Scale of infrastructure means
that change in demand can be
a step-change g
• Multiples, not fractions
• eg e.g. low CO 2 concrete: move to 50%
stainless steel rebar would double EU Cr
imports; move to 10% Ti-based cathodic
protection p could x10 EU Ti imports. p
• Previously abundant materials
may y become critical
http://www.cathodic.co.uk/information/19/14/Elgard_General_Information.htm
4

Cr Cr: : India,
Kaz’stan Kaz’stan, , Iran
Cr Cr: : SA,
Zimbabwe
Nd Nd: : China
(97%)
• Vulnerability
Vulnerability: EU/UK are often 100% importers
• Passive/reactive price & supply volatility: Geopolitical
issues
Map source: http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/tajani/hot-topics/raw-materials/index_en.htm 5

Geopolitics
“The US and the EU
asked Beijing to clarify
its policy on mineral
exports after China
stopped shipping to
Japan.
“The stoppage followed
a spat between China
and Japan last month
over islands whose
ownership is disputed disputed.
”
6

How do we assure supply?
• Strategic stockpiling
• Trade agreements
• Recycling
• collection vs. “mining
iinfrastructure” f t t ”
• urban mining, urban ores,
urban concentrates…
concentrates “Some Some metal has more
• where, when, in what state
are aetthe estoc stocks? s
on‐surface stock than
underground stock”
K HALADA, National Institute for
Materials Science, Japan
7

Existing models: Stocks & Flows
8

S&F Limitations
• One substance at a time
• Existing infrastructure = aggregate stock of a
given substance; no information on location
• Properties or qquality alit of the ssubstances bstances (e (e.g. g
Cr as element or alloy) are not generally
explicitly accounted for for.
9

The Project: A New Model
• the flow of materials into & out of infrastructure;
• the stocks of materials contained within
infrastructure infrastructure, during operation and demolition;
• the location and properties of these materials and
the components they are a part of;
• the criticality of key materials, in terms of
ssubstitutability bstit tabilit and ssupply ppl risks risks;
• the interactions between these factors.
10

2The 2The Project: Methodology
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2Potential 2Potential
initial case studies
• Low carbon concretes • Move to wind power, p tidal
(Halcrow)
generation etc (Halcrow)
• Move to fibre optic control and
HVDC in power distribution
(National Grid)
• New rail electrification
(Halcrow)
• Move to electric vehicles
(U.Newcastle)
• Energy Storage – bulk vs
decentralised (National Grid)
• Underground U degoudvss overground
o egoud conducters (National Grid)
• Treatment at source vs
centralised treatment, anaerobic
digestion & CHP
(United Utilities/Halcrow)
• Zero-carbon buildings (Arup)
• Active comms on road
infrastructure (Halcrow)
• Decision matrix…
12

2Scoring 2Scoring
criteria
• Data availability – S&F of materials and components
• Technical competence – expertise within team
• Scale Scale, likelihood & specificity of intervention
• Collaborators on board
• Politics Politics, novelty and impact in multiple sectors – the
‘wow’ factor
• Cross-over with known criticalities or scarcities
• Complexity vs simplicity – system boundary clearly
defined?
13

2Chosen 2Chosen
case studies
Key factors: data, scenarios, materials criticality
Wind turbines + low-CO2 reinforced
concrete
Electric vehicles
14

Model Structure
Infrastructure Technology Materials
Abstract
Structure: Components:
Materials
stock of the
physical physical stock
stocks
required
stock of infra- of infrastructure contained in
service level structure that parts p that
both
directly indirectly
infrastructure
supplies the provide the
and
service service
components
15

Case study: wind power
Infrastructure Technology Materials
Wind Power Structures: Components: Neodymium
Onshore and Permanent
offshore wind magnet
turbines generators g
(PMGs); non-
PMGs
Excluded: Transmission; Other renewables generation
16

Model Structure: dynamic S&F
Infrastructure Technology Materials
Infrastructure
stock
K (i) (t)
I (s) (t) I (c) (t) I (m) (t)
Structure
stock
K (s) (t)
Component
stock
K (c) (t)
Materials
stock
K (m) (t)
O (s) (t) O (c) (t) O (m) (t)
17

Model Structure: lifetimes
Infrastructure Technology Materials
Infrastructure
stock
K (i) (t)
Technolog T gy mix
I (s) (t) I (c) (t) I (m) (t)
Structure
stock
K (s) (t)
Compone C nt mix
Component
stock
K (c) (t)
Material M inntensity
Materials
stock
K (m) (t)
O (s) (t) O (c) (t) O (m) (t)
St Structure t lifetime lif ti CComponent t lif lifetime ti MMaterial t i l lif lifetime ti
L (s) (t, t 0)
L (c) (t, t 0)
L (m) (t, t 0)
18

Scenario input: wind power
Scenarios also contain
technology mix (from
which materials mix is
derived)
~ current UK electricity capacity
Future UK wind generation
(DECC, 2010)
19

Results – Nd demand
Annual UK Neodymium demand from wind
power technology
20

Results – Nd demand (

Future Additions: Criticality?
Share of o world Ndd
productioon
5%
4%
3%
2%
1%
UK Low Carbon Technology Share of World Production
0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Wi Wind d % prod d
Car % prod
Combined %
22

Scenario input – electric vehicles
~ current UK vehicles registered
Future UK electric vehicles (total)
23

Results – Li demand
24

Results – Pt potential recyclate
Lowest annual peak is
equivalent to
£6 billion (present
market k t price) i )
25

2Summary 2Summary
• Potential for low-CO low CO 2 infrastructure roll-out roll out to be disrupted
by materials criticality: thus assessments of vulnerability
need to be inniiated to inform policy decisions
• Enhanced stocks & flows models can highlight likely
criticalities: advanced models will enumerate vulnerability
• AAs well ll as ‘ ‘scare stories’, t i ’ potential t ti l ffor significant i ifi t resource
recovery from the infrastructure can also be identified
• Work in progress progress…
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