Measuring Energy Security: - University of Exeter

Measuring Energy 

Security: 

It’s Not Just Economics 

Colin Axon, Brunel University 

Richard Darton, University of Oxford 

Christian Winzer, University of Cambridge 

EPRG, Cambridge, 12 th March 2012.

Energy Security is… 

…whatever Energy Security 

researchers say… 

C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. Colin.Axon@brunel.ac.uk

Commonalities and Differences 

Between Typical Definitions 

“…continuous availability of energy in 

varied forms, in sufficient quantities, and 

at reasonable prices” 

United Nations DevelopmentProgram (UNDP), 2000. 

World Energy Assessment - Energy and theChallenge of 

Sustainability 

“Energy insecurity can be defined as the loss 

of welfare that may occur as a result of a 

change in the price or availability of energy” 

Bohi and Toman (1996) 

“…energy supply security must be geared 

to ensuring… the uninterrupted physical 

availability of energy products on the 

market, at a price which is affordable for all 

consumers (private and industrial), while 

respecting environmental concerns and 

looking towards sustainable development” 

European Commission, 2000. 


Difference Between Concepts 

I) Sources of Risk: 

* Natural Risk 

* Technical Risk 

* Human Risk 

Dimensions of Energy Security: Broad Concept 

II) Scope of the Impact Measure: 

Continuity of 

Commodity 

Supply 

Severity Filter: 

Energy Security 

Continuity 

of Service 

Supply 

Continuity 

of the 

Economy 

III) Speed of Impacts: Constant – Slow Changes – Fast Changes 

IV) Size of Impacts:Impending Change - Small Change - Phase Change 

V) Sustention of Impacts: Transitory – Sustained – Permanent 

VI) Spread of Impacts: Local – National – Global 

VII) Singularity of Impacts: Unique - Seldom – Frequent 

VIII) Sureness of Impacts: Deterministic – Stochastic –Heuristic - Unknown 

Sustainability 

and Safety 

C. Christian Axon, R. Winzer: Darton, Conceptualising C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security Energy Security. DECC Seminar, 2012/03/07 Colin.Axon@brunel.ac.uk 

p. 4

Potential Continuity Metrics: Sinks and Sources 

Continuity 

of Electricity 

Supplies 

Continuity 

of 

Domestic 

Electricity 

Supplies 

Continuity of 

Domestic 

Cooking due 

to Natural Gas 

Disruptions 

etc... 


Potential 

Continuity 

Metrics: 

Integrals or Intersects 

Price 

a.Prices? 

(demand weighted!) 

b. Welfare? 

Size? 

(Amplitude) 

Continuity 

of What? 

c. Unsupplied Comsumption? 

Shocks, Stresses and other Severity Filters 

Price / Welfare/ 

Consumpt. Loss Which Signal Filters? 

Direction? 

(up-/downside) 

Point in Time? 

(present/future) 

Quantity 

So we are trying to protect against? 

Price Welfare Unsupplied 

Consumption 

a. Increasing Constant or 

Increasing 

b. Constant or 

Decreasing 

c. Constant or 

Decreasing 

Speed? 

(Frequency filter of Averaging Period) 

Constant or 

Decreasing 

Decreasing Constant or 

Decreasing 

Constant or 

Increasing 

Singularity? 

(distance between) 

Quantity 

Increasing 

C. Christian Axon, R. Winzer: Darton, Conceptualising C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security Energy Security. DECC Seminar, 2012/03/07 Colin.Axon@brunel.ac.uk p. 6

Some Common Problems 

Correlations 

Concentration Measures (weighted/unweighted) 

Diversity Indexes 

Import Shares 

Data Reliability 

Dimensionless Scales 

Physical Reliability 

Range of Risks 

The use of compound measures can increase the 

risk of problems due to hidden dependencies 


Policy Needs to 

Make Trade-offs 

Supply Chains 

Supplies relative to 

demand 

Economic Activity 

Cost efficiency of allocation 

and production 

Risk 

to 

Workshops 

Continuity 

Infrastructure 

Impacts on the 

environment 


The Role of Metrics 

Many 

Local 

MEASUREMENTS 

Balancing economic, 

environmental, and 

human/social impacts 

Few System INDICATORS 

Finding criteria to tell us whether 

one policy, project, or product 

increases or reduces “security” 


The Requirements of the Metrics 

1. Clear definition of what is to be assessed,and why 

(Government policy, plant operation, sector regulation, etc). 

2. The metrics must assess impacts on economics and 

business, the environment, and society. 

3. Coverage – key aspects must be included. 

4. Available data – quantifiable empirical data. 

5. Composites if appropriate (weighting). 

6. Avoid duplication and needless complexity. 


The Process Analysis Method 

Process 

Impact 

CAUSES 

Indicators 

CREATES 

CHANGING 

AFFECTING 

Issues External Impact Receivers 

DESCRIBED BY 

Human / 

Social 

Environmental Economic 

Chee Tahir, A. and Darton, R.C. (2010) 

Journal of Cleaner Production 18, 1598-1607 



Overview of System 

Definition of Security 

Definition of System Boundary in Time and Space 

The overview must include all processes within the boundary 

Framework for Analysis 

Analyse the system to identify all significant impacts 

on the three domains - stores of value (capital) 

Characterise these impacts with metrics 

Human / 

Social 

Environmental 

Economic 



1. Three domains / stores of 

value (capital) 

Human / 

Social 

Economic 

3. Identify Internal Impact 

Generators 

IIG=business process or policy 

that impacts a store of value 

5. For each issue select an 

indicator 

Framework for Analysis 

Environmental 

2. Perspectives 

• resource efficiency 

• human/social advance 

• environmental compatibility 

Indicators reflect these 

4. Identify issues associated 

with impact on External Impact 

Receivers. 

EIR=guardian of capital 

6. Quantitative measures for 

each indicator – the metrics 


PAM Applied to Energy Security 

Our system: 

• Find resources 

• Extract resources => dispose of waste 

• Condition and process resources => dispose of waste 

• Transport resources 

• Convert resources => dispose of waste 

• Distribute (infrastructure) 

• Use => dispose of waste 

Perspectives: 

Resource efficiency and fairness in (dis)benefit 

(Bruntland) 

We used: 

Continuity and resilience 


PAM Applied to Energy Security 

Internal Impact Generators: 

• Government / Regulatory bodies 

• Resource extraction companies 

• Resource processing companies 

• Energy/power device manufacturers 

• Users 

External Impact Receivers: 

• Consumers 

• Employees 

• Capital Providers 

• Utility companies 

• Communities 

• Future communities 


Example Output 

Impact 

Depletion of finite 

resources 

Need for capital 

intensive plant 

Employment 

No access to 

Government 

Issue 

Cost increase 

Increase in dependence - 

forced change in supply 

Availability of capital 

Inflexible assets (planning, 

high cost, technical) 

Availability of skilled labour 

Political instability 

Indicator 

Cost / unit 

Stirling 

Diversity Index 

Cost of capital 

?Payback time 

Number of 

engineering 

graduates 

Metric 

Interest rate 

Years 

# / year 

C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. Colin.Axon@brunel.ac.uk 

? 

£ / PJ (or KWh) 

# 

?

Example Output 

Impact 

Shipping delay 

Visual impacts 

Loss of power 

Flight of capital 

Health impacts 

(e.g. particulates) 

Issue 

Piracy 

Public opposition 

Demand > supply 

Technical failure 

Regulatory 

uncertainty 

Mortality / morbidity 

of the general public 

Indicator 

# of tankers hijacked 

Proportion of planning 

applications rejected 

Time available 

Time unavailable 

Hospital admissions 

Customer Mins 

Lost (CMLs) 

# / year 

C. Axon, R. Darton, C. Winzer: Measuring Energy Security. Colin.Axon@brunel.ac.uk 

? 

Metric 

% 

# / year 

Hours / day 

?

Non-economic Feedbacks from Sustainability 

Closure of Nuclear Plants in Germany 

Image Courtesy Wikipedia 

2000. Reformed nuclear laws 


-No new plants 

-Maximum lifetime 32 years 

-Remaining energy 2.62 Mio GWh 

-Last closure expected 2022 


-Lifetime extension between 8 and 14 

years 

-Additional energy 1.8 Mio GWh for 17 

plants 

-Last closure expected 2036 

2011. 13 th Reformed nuclear laws 

-closure of first 8.5GW (~10.5%peak) 

within 1 month 

-closure of all remaining plants by 2022 



UK Nuclear R&D Workforce 


A Metrics Health Warning! 

A set of metrics not planned for some defined purpose 

is merely a collection of statistics. 

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases 

to be a good measure. 

Goodhart’s Law re-stated by Marilyn Strathern 


Summary 

Reconceptualising Energy Security brings realisation of 

the important processes involved. 

Human / 

Social 

Economic 

Environmental 

Need to create metrics in a transparent 

manner to monitor progress which will…. 

…act as a coherent assessment of the 

UK's Energy Security, and guide 

formulation of coherent policy.

Measuring Energy Security: - University of Exeter

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