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produção da CONFERÊNCIA INTERNACIONAL DE
BIOCOMBUSTÍVEIS.
TRINDADE, Sergio. Comércio internacional de biocombustíveis:
o estado atual do problema. In: CONFERÊNCIA
INTERNACIONAL DE BIOCOMBUSTÍVEIS, 2010, São Paulo.
Apresentações. São Paulo: Faculdade de Engenharia - FAAP,
2010.

Conferência Internacional de Biocombustíveis
FACULDADE DE ENGENHARIA
FUNDAÇÃO ARMANDO ALVARES PENTEADO
São Paulo, 26 a 28 de maio de 2010
International Biofuels Trade:
Issues and Options
Sergio C. Trindade
strindade@alum.mit.edu
International Fuel Technology, Inc.
USA

Vinhaça" de Ismar Geraldo B. de Almeida
Biofuels Issues
• Scale: 2010 fuel ethanol and
biodiesel only 2.4% of oil!
• Land, water, labor, financing, market
uncertainties
• Local environmental issues
• GHG emissions

How much land would it take for the U.S. to grow its own fuel?
Source: Santana, G. and S. Quirk (2009). Growing Green: An In-Depth Look at the Emerging Algae Industry, Greener Dawn Research, 22 July, 16p.

Vinhaça" de Ismar Geraldo B. de Almeida
Biofuels Issues
• Food versus fuels
• Access to raw materials
• 1 st ., 2 nd .,nth. tech. generations
• Sustainability and certification
• International trade: Doha impasse,
biofuels as environmental goods
and services

Source: www.defra.gsi.gov.uk
Fig.1 Biofuels production and
consumption concentrated
in the US, Brazil and the EU

World Ethanol Output and Exports
Source: F.O. Licht, * Projection, ** Forecast
1,000 m 3

World Ethanol, Exports/Output
Source: F.O. Licht, * Projection, ** Forecast

World Fuel Ethanol
• Markets driven by mandates, subsidies
• Brazil: dominant export supplier, domestic
demand, sugar arbitrage
• Trade barriers everywhere: tariff and non-tariff
• US corn-based ethanol: sustainability, food vs
fuel
• Some US opposition to futures and options
market: limit price discovery of fuel ethanol
• Sustainability certification: a two edge-sword

World Fuel Ethanol
• EU, India, China, Japan, Canada, Thailand,
Colombia, Australia: significant domestic
fuel ethanol markets, some will need
imports
• A truly liberalized global market in fuel ethanol :
a vision for the distant future
• Africa: the new frontier producer
• Competition: biodiesel, biomass-derived F-T,
Amyris carbohydrates to hydrocarbons,
sucro-chemicals, ethanol-chemicals

World Biodiesel Output and Exports
Metric Tons
Source: F.O. Licht, 2009 Projection, 2010 Forecast

World Biodiesel, Exports/Output, %
Source: F.O. Licht, 2009 Projection, 2010 Forecast

Coreografia Rural", de Mário Roberto Vendramini
World Biodiesel
• Market driven by mandates, subsidies
• Access to sustainable raw materials
can be a problem
• Current RMs demanded in food
markets: rapeseed, soy, palm oils
• Overcapacity:18 m t/a output vs
44 m t/a capacity
• GHG emission challenge in EU

World Biodiesel
• Competition: ethanol, H-bio, biomassderived
F-T, Amyris carbohydrates
to hydrocarbons
• EU to remain major consumer, B-7
focus, needs imports
• US driven by RFS2, B19 exports (EU)
• Argentina major exporter to EU
• Brazil’s domestic market expanding
• SE Asia PME: issues with cold flow
and sustainability Coreografia Rural", de Mário Roberto Vendramini

Sustainability This is theof world biofuels we all requires live in! freer
Our international common home! trade
• Large scale sustainable production and transport
of biofuels fits tropical countries best, have
CANADA
comparative advantages EU
CHINA
JAPAN
USA
• Temperate countries can enhance global
MEXICO CARIBBEAN
INDIA
THAILAND
sustainability Central Americaby
limiting production of
COLOMBIA
unsustainable biofuels
PERU
BRAZIL
S.AFRICA
• They should import sustainable biofuels AUSTRALIA produced
in tropical countries
• A South-North BioPact is needed to promote
global biofuels sustainability
Matthews, J. (April 23 2008) Biopact could end deadlock on Doha. Financial Times
Trindade, Sergio (2009). The sustainability of biofuels depends on international trade,UESO #402374,VOL31,ISS18(June9,2009). Energy Sources Part A, 31:1–
7,2009

The sustainability of biofuels
depends on international trade
• Sustainability-certified biofuels
trade would ensure that they
are produced sustainably
• The BioPact would contribute
to the global sustainability of
biofuels by smoothing
supply-demand gaps

The sustainability of biofuels
depends on international trade
• If unsustainable corn-based ethanol pressures
the price of food-corn, unimpeded trade of
ethanol would relieve the pressure on corn
price and availability caused by corn-based
ethanol
• If palm oil based biodiesel pressures foodrelated
palm oil prices, then unimpeded
trade of biodiesel would allow the
movement of non-palm oil biodiesel into the
market, thus mitigating issues of price and
availability of palm oil

Conclusions
• International trade essential for the sustainability
of biofuels: economic, social and
environmental
• To be long-run sustainable, biofuels must cost
below the opportunity cost of fuels they
replace
• Regions of the world that can produce biofuels
below their opportunity cost, could export
sustainability certified biofuels to regions that
cannot do so sustainably – the BioPact
• Thus, freer trade of biofuels would promote the
global sustainability of trade