fourth edition, June 2010 - Asset | Econometrics

A s s e t | E c o n o m e t r i c s M a g a z i n e
V o l u m e 1 8 , f o u r t h e d i t i o n , J u n e 2 0 1 0
F o o t b a l l f r o m t h e s i d e l i n e
I n t e r v i e w T o m K n i p p i n g
F a i r y t a l e s f r o m m a t h e m a t i c s
S p e c i a l
S t i c k e r s o n h o l i d a y
S u m m e r P h o t o C o n t e s t
ekst

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u t c h i d i o M S
P r e f a C e
coLoPhoN
Nekst is the quarterly magazine
of asset | econometrics ©2010
correspondence
asset | econometrics
Tilburg University
room e 110
P.O.Box 90153
5000 Le Tilburg
Telephone: 013 466 27 47
info@asset-econometrics.nl
www.asset-econometrics.nl
Editorial staff
Marleen Balvert
frans fonville
Harold van Heijst
Dimphy Hermans
Bart Kruize
elske Leenaars
Has van Vlokhoven
Bas Verheul
fang Qi Wu
contributions
Thomas Bachet
Joris Blonk
Tim Boonen
Hettie Boonman
Niels de Bresser
Timo Deist
Bastien Drut
emile van elen
erik fledderus
Mirjam Groote Schaarsberg
Gerwald van Gulick
anja van Helvoirt
ad van Herpen
alfred van ’t Hof
Mathijs Jansen
Lars Knuth
Peter Kort
Karin van Kranenburg
Patrick Kuijpers
Hans van Maanen
Kay Mennens
Inge Pulles
Martin Salm
ramon van Schaik
Bart van Schuppen
Marlies Veenes
Marleen Veldhuijzen
Tristan van der Wal
Printing
Drukkerij Orangebook
circulation
650
these 72 pages in front of you form the last edition of Nekst for
this academic year. Because of the FiFA World cup in South Africa,
football is in the air and Nekst decided to join the madness!
as this is the last edition, I realised that this is my last preface as well. The next Nekst editor-in-chief,
fang Qi Wu, will probably discuss a lot of interesting topics with you without too many difficulties. I,
however, have to confess that I have had a hard time finding exciting topics. Besides, I more liked to
hear your stories than mine, as I already mentioned in the first edition of Nekst. It is a pity, however,
that my call for your stories remained unanswered. Maybe next year?
Nekst came up with a lot of nice topics and even brought in a football theme. If you like football, you
should definitely read the article about the football Symposium, the column by Hans van Maanen,
and the special about football. If you do not like football or just want to read the entire magazine
in a non-increasing priority order, I can recommend – to name a few – the article about the active
Members Weekend, the special about mathematical fairy tales, and the exchange report.
To continue on the subject of your stories, I would like to note the following: you hear the best
stories when talking to international students. Last month, I talked to a girl from Turkey and wanted
to tell her that she should not be disappointed with the present I gave her, so I said: “you should not
look a gift horse in the mouth”. Of course, she did not understand this remark as it is a typical Dutch
idiom. Therefore, I explained it and told her that I wished to introduce all Dutch idioms in the english
language. What objections are there against saying “the monkey comes out of the sleeve” (“the
rabbit is pulled out of the hat”) or “to see it through the fingers” (“to turn a blind eye”)? On the other
hand, few Dutch people are aware of the fact that there are many similarities between Dutch and
english idioms, such as “to break the ice” or “like a chicken with its head cut off”. I hope that everyone
uses Dutch idioms in conversations with students from abroad in less than a year. Therefore, I ask for
your help to introduce these expressions in english. Will you join me? Besides, I discovered that “do
not look a gift horse in the mouth” is an english idiom after all.
for the moment, please do not worry about Dutch idioms and enjoy reading, since Nekst is still in
accordance with the rules of British english,
frans fonville
Editor-in-chief
Nekst 4 - June 2010 1

A B L E o F c o N t E N t S
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Preface
from the Board
Interview Tom Knipping
PhD & research Master afternoon
Beer or Wine Tasting and Lecture Drink
Scientific article Brink Groep
Members Day
The Teacher: Johan Graafland
active Members Weekend
Special: football
excursion Philip Morris
The Mother of Janneke van Schijndel
Column Martin Salm
asset Consultancy experience
freshmen activity
Practical report
KOaLa
Game of Goose
exchange report
economic Business weeks Tilburg
Business Interview Towers Watson
excursion Ortec finance
The Passion of Gijs IJsebaert, ruben Mak, and Stan van Workum
Scientific article TNO
football Column
asset Pub Quiz
football Symposium and Drink
Secret activity
an Introduction
Special: fairy tales from mathematics
football Tournament and announcement Drink
Opinion Poll
Column Gerwald van Gulick
Committee Profile: finance Monitoring Committee
Puzzle
Quatsch
Graduates & Planning
Summer Photo Contest
advertisements
SNS reaaL
ernst & Young
aeGON
Brink Groep
flow Traders
rabobank
Cruyff foundation
Towers Watson
Optiver
PGGM
Duisenberg School of finance
NIBC
Page
cover
04
08
14
22
28
38
44
56
62
cover
cover

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we een van de grootste adviesorganisaties in Nederland. Er is bij ons altijd
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Ga jij de fi nancieel directeur van een verzekeraar adviseren over een nieuwe
premiestructuur of het toeslagenbeleid van een pensioenfonds toetsen? Of ben
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M E M o i r S o F A c h A i r M A N
f r O M T H e B O a r D
on 9 June the announcement drink took place in curiosa café Qwibus. Now that the candidate board has been
announced, it is almost time for our board to hand over the reins. it is hard to believe how fast a year in the board
goes by. Below, i will mention a few of many good memories from the past months, or at least some events that
have been inscribed in my memory.
after two successful weeks, it was high
time for the final economic Business weeks
Tilburg (eBT ) party. It is a tradition that the
chairmen of the asset associations take care
of the organisation of this final party. as
chairmen, we could well see what had to be
done, but organising a party ourselves was
something completely different. after some
brainstorming we decided to use golden
balloons for the decoration of the party.
result: we spent a whole day decorating
Café Slagroom with at least five people using
1200 golden balloons, which we had to blow
up with little hand-pumps. In any case, it was
good for the integration of board members
of different associations.
On Tuesday 13 april, the so-called ‘Biggest
Challenge asset | econometrics has ever
seen’ started. about 25 econometricians
participated in the game ‘Gotcha!’. every
participant received a target card, with the
name of the person you had to shoot with a
water gun on it. furthermore, we thought it
would be nice to introduce an immunity rule.
If the logo of asset | econometrics was visible
on someone’s clothes, he or she obtained
immunity. result: econometricians walked on
the campus with ‘I love astrics’ stickers® stuck
all over their clothes during the weeks that
followed.
B o a r d A s s e t | E c o n o m e t r i c s 2 0 0 9 - 2 0 1 0
Nekst 4 - June 2010
I really enjoyed the active Members Weekend
(aMW ), which took place in the famous
village of ermelo. This weekend consists
of so many traditions that it will become
difficult for future committees to keep the
programme a secret. This time, however,
the committee succeeded well in doing so.
I am fond of most of the traditions, such as
eating pasta on friday evening, the epic
barbecue on Saturday evening, and the ‘notknowing-what-we-are-going-to-do-up-untilthe-very-last-moment’
factor. as a chairman,
however, there are two traditions you cannot
possibly like. Or at least, I do not. flipping
the chairman over while asleep is one of
them. The other one is the obligation of the
chairman to clean all the toilets at the end
of the weekend. Nonetheless, these are just
traditions I endured.
Hardly five weeks later, the former active
Members Weekend, named KOaLa ß², took
place in the even more famous village of
epe. The latter two traditions were kindly
repeated during this weekend. Nonetheless, I
would like to inform our dear active members
that throwing cake at the chairman is not a
tradition. Of course we can make it a tradition
from next year on.
all in all, it is a pity that our year as the board
of asset | econometrics is almost over. I would
like to wish you a very nice holiday and hope to
see you during the General Members Meeting
on 31 august and the drink afterwards.
On behalf of the asset | econometrics board,
Harold van Heijst
Chairman Asset | Econometrics
Name:
Harold van Heijst
Position:
Chairman
Asset | Econometrics
Board 2009-2010

o o t B A L L F r o M t h E S i d E L i N E
I N T e r V I e W T O M K N I P P I N G
For this World cup edition of Nekst, we arranged a special interview with tom Knipping, journalist
for the dutch football magazine ‘Voetbal international’. Nekst was curious to learn more about his
work and life, and therefore arranged a meeting with tom at hotel Nuland. in the sun on a terrace, we
started the interview.
Name:
Tom Knipping
Profession:
Journalist ‘Voetbal
International ‘
Tom Knipping was born in a small town
close to Nijmegen. Therefore, it is not
surprising that he is supporting football
club NeC from Nijmegen. already at the age
of twelve, he wanted to become a journalist
and after secondary school, he began his
studies in journalism in Utrecht. He had
lived there for five years and enjoyed
Utrecht as a real student city. Tom wanted
to become a sports journalist and attended
a special sports class together with twelve
other people. Other students looked down
on the sports class, since they considered
writing for renowned newspapers the best
kind of journalism.
During his studies, Tom did several
internships. His first internship was at a
door-to-door paper concern in Nijmegen.
This paper had only one editor, who had
to arrange articles for the paper, and
the trainee had to do almost everything.
This was a very informative experience
for Tom. “from the visit of the Queen to
car accidents in the city : I had to report
everything.”
His second internship was at the sports
magazine ‘Sportweek’, which had existed
for barely a few years at that time. The
editorial staff was located in a loft room
in amsterdam, but it was a nice internship.
Tom wrote articles about, for instance,
the World Cup Cyclo-cross, but also about
the successes of football club aZ. In 2001,
during the last year of his studies, he started
working for newspaper ‘De Gelderlander ’.
He wrote articles about NeC and amateur
football in the region. after about a year,
Johan Derksen, editor-in-chief of Voetbal
International, asked him whether he would
like to work for Voetbal International. He
“I am sure that something will
ha ppen to football supporters
in South Africa.”
accepted the offer and started reporting
about the first division. Things were going
well and he received more tasks, eventually
following PSV for four years until 2008. In
that time, PSV celebrated a lot of successes
with Guus Hiddink as coach.
television
Tom and a colleague, Iwan van Duren,
decided to set up something that more
involved the backgrounds of stories. This
was also decided due to the changing
world of media. Chasing novelties became
decreasingly important as news spread
immediately on the internet. Besides,
Johan Derksen already had an important
role in telling the news on television on
Mondays before the magazine would be
published. Of course, the magazine should
distinct itself and stay an addition to what
Nekst 4 - June 2010
has already been said on television
or on the internet, hence the focus
on backgrounds. In particular,
the economy behind football was
interesting as no articles were
dedicated to that subject until then.
Last year, Tom Knipping and Iwan
van Duren started publishing short
videos on the website of Voetbal
International, which they named
‘ Tussen de Linies’. In these videos,
they talk about what they find out
as research journalists.
Nekst wondered whether people
recognise him now he creates
these videos and is occasionally on
television. “I have worked for Voetbal
International for eight years now,
and wrote articles about the Dutch
squad, european Cups, and World
Cups, but got hardly any reaction.
The moment you are on television,
however, people at the gas station
suddenly start talking about Voetbal
International,” Tom said. even
though he enjoys being a football
journalist, he thinks he will not be
doing this work until his retirement.
Tom really likes research journalism,
but this is not necessarily restricted
to football.
Schedule
Nekst wondered what a typical
working week looks like. Tom
explained that every week is
different. Normally, he is at the
office of Voetbal International on
Mondays only. Together with all the
other journalists and the editor-inchief,
they form the magazine that
day. During the rest of the week,
he can determine his own schedule
with appointments. His office is
where his laptop and phone are
T o m K n i p p i n g f o l l o w s t h e F I F A W o r l d C u p i n S o u t h A f r i c a
at, so he can even work between
two appointments. This week, all
of his appointments were in the
Netherlands, but sometimes he
has to go abroad for his work. for
instance, he went to Uruguay to
interview ajax player Luis Suarez
and his family. In June, he will
follow the Dutch squad during the
preparations for the World Cup as
well as during the World Cup itself.
Football clubs
Nekst liked to know Tom’s opinion
about Tilburg’s pride, football club
Willem II. This club is currently
struggling with liquidity issues,
but Tom had good news for us. He
believed that the local authorities
would help Willem II to survive and
hence we could again admire Willem
II playing in the highest division next
season. On the question whether
there will be other clubs that may
go bankrupt in the future, Tom had
a short answer: “100% sure.” We
already know that Tom is a great fan
of NeC, but does he have a favourite
player? In fact, he has one: “romario
was a special player both on the
pitch as well as outside the pitch.”
In his spare time, Tom does not
play football himself. at least, not
anymore. He told us that he cannot
combine this sport with his work.
Nonetheless, he does practice
another sport. He picked up running
and even participated in the Tilburg
Ten Miles. Tom also enjoys cooking,
in particular oriental cooking.
On the day the interview took place,
a reputed terrorist, who got arrested
by american forces in Iraq, said that
he wanted to attack players and
supporters from Denmark and the
Netherlands on behalf of al-Qaida
during the World Cup. Tom Knipping
also heard this news and, regardless
of the seriousness of the threat, he
does know one thing: “I am sure that
Nekst 4- June 2010 7

www.aegon.nl/werk
Eerlijk over
werken bij AEGON
AEGON biedt financiële oplossingen voor ieder moment in het leven.
Verzekeringen, pensioenen, hypotheken, spaarproducten en beleggingsproducten.
In Nederland werken wij met circa 3200 mensen vanuit vier
kantoren om mensen te helpen aan een betere financiële
toekomst. Deze kantoren staan in Den Haag, Leeuwarden,
Nieuwegein en Groningen. Wereldwijd werken zo’n 31.500
mensen voor AEGON. Wij zijn actief in de Verenigde Staten,
Europa, Canada en het Verre Oosten. Daarmee is AEGON
één van ’s werelds grootste beursgenoteerde verzekeraars.
Werken bij AEGON
Werken kun je bij meer bedrijven. Waarom AEGON?
Het antwoord ligt uiteindelijk bij jezelf. We kunnen je wel
helpen met wat feiten. AEGON is een standvastige
organisatie die weet wat hij wil. Het doel is de beste en
grootste pensioen- en inkomensverzekeraar te zijn. En dat is
meer dan pensioenen en schadeverzekeringen. Het is
behoud van inkomen en bezit. Nu en later.
Bij de grootste moet je niet meteen denken in getallen en
euro’s. De grootste en beste willen zijn betekent toonaangevend
willen zijn in het nemen van verantwoordelijkheid.
Dat we baanbrekend willen zijn met integere, transparante
producten en diensten.
De toekomst kunnen we niet voorspellen. Wat we wel
kunnen: ons steeds aanpassen. Elke dag weer vernieuwen
en verbeteren. Met die instelling zijn we klaar voor morgen.
Kom maar op.
Mogelijkheden
Als je met plezier naar je werk gaat, presteer je beter.
Dat is goed voor jou. En als je bij AEGON werkt, is dat ook
goed voor AEGON.
Dat plezier in je werk is natuurlijk persoonlijk.
Toch kunnen we er iets over zeggen dat vrijwel iedereen
aanspreekt die bij AEGON werkt:
Je wilt het verschil maken.
Je wilt de ruimte om te ondernemen.
Je wilt vast en zeker je ambities kunnen uitleven.
Wat is jouw doel?
We zijn op zoek naar zelfbewuste en ondernemende mensen
die verantwoordelijkheid nemen. We kijken naar je sociale
vaardigheden en je realisatiekracht.
Krijg je een goed gevoel bij begrippen als zelfstandigheid,
ambitie en ondernemen? Dan willen we graag weten wat
jouw doel is. We kunnen je nog genoeg vertellen. Maar wij
zijn vooral ook benieuwd naar wat jij te vertellen hebt.
Voor concrete startfuncties of stages bij AEGON kijk je op
onze website: www.aegon.nl/werk
Meer weten? Bel dan met Ineke ten Cate op 070 344 5372, of
stuur een mailtje naar Campus@aegon.nl
M o s e s M a b h i d a W o r l d C u p S t a d i u m
something will happen to football
supporters in South africa.” When
Nekst asked him whether he was
worried about going to South africa
himself, he answered that he is not
afraid. He told us that he is not
going to wander around on his own
and he will be travelling with people
who know the area, which makes it
much safer.
Mathematics
In relation to the asset | econometrics
football symposium, Nekst wondered
whether Tom thinks mathematics can
be useful in football. He explained
that mathematics can be very useful
as most decisions are currently
not based on objective date, but
merely on intuition and feelings.
In fact, science as a whole can be
very important for football teams.
for example, the Dutch national
team has a hotel at 1700 metres
high in South africa. a physiologist
has done research on what is the
best height to be at during such a
tournament, and he found out that
this is 1300 metres. Not only the
Dutch team, but most teams did not
know this and will stay at a location
that is far from ideal in that respect,
which will result in more fatigued
players as the tournament moves
on. according to Tom, this is quite
remarkable: “Hundreds of millions
are spent during the World Cup and
the commercial interests to become
World Champion are huge, but
even the top teams are not able to
determine the height that is best to
reside at.”
Tom also had some good advice for
amateur journalists. Tom Knipping:
“Stay sharp 24-hours a day and
realise that everything can contain
a story.” We will keep this in mind for
the upcoming editions of Nekst.
Last but not least, Nekst liked to
know which country will be the new
World Champion according to Tom.
“I keep it with Spain. The World Cup
will be decided inside the hotels as
players will be forced to spend a
lot of time together. Therefore, the
Netherlands will not win the World
Cup.” |
Text by : Bar t Kruize
Nekst 4 - June 2010 9

o W A r d S A t o P A c A d E M i c c A r E E r
P H D & r e S e a r C H M a S T e r a f T e r N O O N
on Wednesday 17 March, Asset | Econometrics organised the Phd & research Master Afternoon in order to
make students more familiar with the possibilities for an academic career. in relation to this event, Nekst
approached a student and a professor to write something about the research masters and Phd programmes
at tilburg university.
Name:
Hettie Boonman
Begin studies:
2006
Name:
Peter Kort
hettie Boonman
“During my study period, I did not have any
delays, and therefore I will probably finish my
bachelor and master in the prescribed four years.
Nonetheless, I am not comfortable with my
studies going as fast as they have been going. I
consider myself rather young to be entering the
job market already. The fact that I finished my
studies so quickly gives me plenty of time for
some more personal development. Therefore, I
would like to do the research master in economics.
The main reason for this decision is that I find
enjoyment in the process of researching.
My lectures ended in March, and I am currently
writing my thesis fulltime. I rather enjoy this
process. I have been given a lot of freedom in
my research design and I can manage my own
time. If a research topic is very broad, I think it is
great to find the right track and formulate a clear
problem. furthermore, I am glad to have a very
interesting topic to write about. The research
master in economics fits my interests perfectly
as it broadens my current master as well as helps
to develop my research skills. at the moment, I
do not know yet whether or not I am admitted to
the programme.”
Peter Kort
“If you are interested in an academic career,
the research master or PhD programmes at
Center may form an interesting option for you.
a research master or PhD programme at Center
is a five year programme consisting of a research
master of two years and a PhD phase of three
years. as a student in econometrics, you can join
the programme at two points in time. after the
bachelor you are allowed to start in the first year
of the research master. after completing one of
the masters, however, you are allowed to start in
the second year of the research master.
graduate programme of economics. The
graduate programme of Business consists of the
tracks Operations research, finance, Marketing,
Organisation and Strategy, and accounting.
The economics programme consists of the
tracks Micro, Macro, and econometrics. Detailed
information is available at http://center.uvt.nl/gs/.
The first two years of the research master consist
of four semesters in total. The first semester
consists of compulsory courses. In the second
semester, courses are partly compulsory and
partly elective. The third semester consists of
elective courses only. In the fourth semester,
students have to write a research master thesis.
Once you are allowed to continue with a PhD
programme, this research master thesis typically
forms the first chapter of your PhD thesis. The
three PhD years consist of doing research, writing
papers, presenting your work at conferences, and
writing a PhD thesis.
for students who completed a master in
econometrics and thus start in the second year
of the research master, a tailor made programme
has been designed, which depends on the courses
you followed in the econometrics master.” |
10 Nekst 4 - June 2010
B E E r t A S t i N g , W h A t E L S E ?
B e e r O r W I N e T a S T I N G a N D L e C T U r e D r I N K
on tuesday 30 March, the drinks & Activities committee organised an activity for all members of Asset |
Econometrics. the activity consisted of a dinner and a beer or wine tasting, followed by a lecture of tNo and
a drink at café Qwibus. Because i am a real beer drinker, i subscribed myself immediately.
around 18:00, we went to the Gallery for a
delicious dinner. The costs for the activity were
five euros, which is not much. The dinner was
in a nice room with a lot of pots hanging from
the ceiling. I thought by myself: as soon as my
dinner is served, some of the pots will drop down
on my plate. I can already tell you, however, that
this did not happen. as entrée you could choose
between a mustard soup and a tomato soup.
I chose the tasteful mustard soup. as a main
course, you could choose between salmon and
chicken with curry sauce. We were also offered
chips and a salad.
after the delicious dinner, during which we had
a lot of fun together, we went to another room
for the beer/wine tasting. This was an open pub
inside the Gallery and therefore the best place
for such a tasting activity. first we listened to a
speech from the manager of the Gallery. He was
very enthusiastic about beer and wine tasting
and he told about the perfect circumstances of
tasting and the human limitations with respect
to tasting. We also listened to his experiences
in tasting, which were very funny. This one time,
he went to the Champagne area in france for
a couple of days. He was told that the perfect
time for tasting champagne was between three
and six am in the morning! That guy was really a
gourmet in the field of wine and beer.
as mentioned before, I participated in the beer
tasting. We were served six different kinds of
beers and everyone received a sheet of paper on
which he or she could fill in some properties of
the wine or beer. every round we had a beer glass,
which was for almost three quarters filled with ‘a
beer’ and there were some snaps as well. There
was a very competing atmosphere as everyone
would like to know first which beer he or she
was drinking. There were several suggestions
varying from rosé beer to Guinness black. after
an hour and a half, when we had tasted all beers
and wines, the manager announced the right
answers. The beer species were as follows: Leffe
Blond, Heineken Oud Bruin, Belle Vu Bessen Kriek,
Guinness Black Beer, Corona, and Palm. I correctly
guessed five beers out of six, but my friend Bart
van Schuppen guessed all of them correctly.
He was the only one: an excellent achievement.
I want to note, however, that thanks to me he
became a real beer drinker. Unfortunately, I do
not know what sorts of wine were served as I am
not a wine drinker myself.
after this wonderful part of the activity, we went
to Café Qwibus. Over there, an employee from TNO
was waiting for us. He gave a presentation about
the activities of TNO in the Netherlands and the
possibilities TNO offers to econometricians. It was
very interesting, and I was quite impressed by his
presentation. after his presentation, we had the
opportunity to ask some individual questions.
He noticed, however, that he had to drive back to
amsterdam that evening, so he could only answer
a few of our questions. Nonetheless, he was still
at the pub after an hour, so I think he had no urge
to go home after all. During the evening, we got a
barrel of beer from TNO and one from the Drinks
& activities committee. In other words, the beer
tasting continued, but only with one kind of beer
this time. all in all, it was a great evening. |
Position:
Director of Graduate
Studies, Economics
Programme
Center has two of these programmes: the
graduate programme of Business and the T o w a r d s a n a c a d e m i c c a r e e r B e e r o r w i n e t a s t i n g
Name:
Ad van Herpen
Nekst 4 - June 2010 11
Age:
19
Begin studies:
2008

E d u c i N g d o W N S i d E r i S K S B Y
F L E X i B i L i t Y
S C I e N T I f I C a r T I C L e B r I N K G r O e P
Since real estate development projects are becoming more complex, risk management methods developed
accordingly. Flexibility during the development stage is a way to reduce downside risk. however, this added
value of flexibility is still hard to incorporate in the current analysis methods. the real options method gives
the solution to this problem and provides new insight in the value of flexibility.
Name:
Alfred van ’t Hof
Position:
Consultant
Name:
Anja van Helvoirt
Position:
Consultant
risk assessing methods
In general, three methods of risk assessment are
common practice in real estate development:
sensitivity analysis, scenario analysis, and
Monte Carlo simulation. The risk assessment
method to be used depends upon the current
stage of the project. In the ideal situation, all
methods are applied in different stages of the
project.
Sensitivity analysis:
Sensitivity analysis is a method in which
key quantitative assumptions (underlying
estimates of variables) are changed
systematically to assess their effect on the
final outcome.
Scenario analysis:
In this analysis a number of scenarios is
constructed based on assumptions of key
variables. These scenarios may represent the
best case, worst case, and most likely future
development of these variables, which will
result in both an estimate of the final outcome
and the bandwidth of the outcome.
Monte Carlo Simulation:
The Monte Carlo Simulation assumes that
variables subject to risk and uncertainty can be
described by probability distributions. Based
on the results of the Monte Carlo analysis it
is possible to determine the bandwidth of
the outcome as well as the probability of this
result.
reducing risk by flexibility
all three risk assessment methods are
deterministic methods. This means that all
methods assume a linear path of events,
without the possibility to deviate from the
original plan and make adjustments during
the project. flexibility, however, is a way to
reduce downside risk, for example by making
changes in the building programme, and
phasing or postponing certain parts of the
development. This kind of flexibility is not
incorporated in the standard risk assessment
methods. fortunately, the real options analysis
method does make this possible and enables
us to quantify the added value of flexibility.
Valuation of real options
Basically, a real option is the right to make
investment decisions during a project. This
makes it possible to adjust a project to
new market conditions or newly available
information. In this way, real options can be
used to reduce downside risks, much like the
way financial options are used to reduce risk
in a stock portfolio. Therefore, valuation of
real options is based on valuation models for
financial options. Different valuation methods
can be used, but we will address the binomial
valuation method.
Example
a project developer is about to start a
residential development of fifty houses. He
has the possibility to postpone the start of this
development to a maximum of two years. This
is a real option that generates added value.
In this simplified case, he expects to sell all
fifty houses at the moment he starts with
construction (so no interest has to be paid
over unsold property). Details are:
revenue per house: €250,000;
Building cost per house: €185,000;
Land cost per house: €50,000;
Discount rate: 5%
again, only the development of house prices
is uncertain in this simplified example. Let us
assume an 80% chance on an upward market
in the next two years. In an upward market,
price levels increase by 2.5%, in a downward
market (20% chance) prices decrease by 1.5%
each year. Construction costs are assumed to
12 Nekst 4 - June 2010
Valuation of real options
Basically, a real option is the right to make investment decisions during a project. This
makes it possible to adjust a project to new market conditions or newly available
information. In this way, real options can be used to reduce downside risks, much like
the way financial options are used to reduce risk in a stock portfolio. Therefore,
valuation of real options is based on valuation models for financial options. Different
valuation methods can be used, but we will address the binomial valuation method.
Example
A project developer is about to start a residential development of fifty houses. He has
the possibility to postpone the start of this development to a maximum node is calculated of two years. by multiplying the
This is a real option that generates added value.
two possible values for the subsequent
year by the chances on upward (80%) or
downward (20%) market development.
In this simplified case, he expects to sell all fifty houses at the moment This calculated he starts value with needs to be
construction (so no interest has to be paid over unsold property). discounted Details are: at the given discount rate,
as the future values occur one year later.
Revenue per house: € 250,000;
Therefore, the option value in year one
Building cost per house: € 185,000;
is 990 (right part of figure 1).
Land cost per house: € 50,000;
When valued by the binomial method as
Discount rate: 5%
described above, the option to postpone
a project has a value of €847,000. If the
Again, only the development of house prices is uncertain in this simplified project developer example. had decided Let to start
the residential project right away, the
us assume an 80% chance on an upward market in the next two years. In an upward
net present value of this project would
market, price levels increase by 2.5%, in a downward market (20% have chance) been €750,000 prices (calculated by using
decrease by 1.5% each year. Construction costs are assumed to a have regular a discounted constant cash value, flow method).
apparently, the flexibility to await better
while the cost for land is increased by a yearly rate of 5%.
market conditions generates an added
value of €97,000 (13% improvement).
First step in determining the value of the option is to evaluate all possible future project
Wrap up
values (sales revenues). In the first year, revenues are € 12,500,000
The example
= 50 x
is
€ 250,000.
only a simplified
In the first year there is an 80% chance on total sales revenues of version € 12,812,500 of real life = situations 50 x and
€ 250,000 x 1.025, and accordingly a 20% chance on sales revenues many objections of € 12,312,500.
can be raised against
the assumptions made. This method,
A The r e s i dsame e n t i acalculations l p r o j e c t
can be done for the second year of development. however, The makes intrinsic clear that flexibility
value of the option is the difference between the calculated possible is able sales to generate revenues added and value for
have the a constant total construction value, while the cost costs for (including year of development. land costs). The intrinsic The intrinsic value value a project, of the since option downside is risks are
land is increased by a yearly rate of 5%. of the option is the difference between decreased. The main conclusion to be
shown in a binomial tree in figure the 1. calculated possible sales revenues drawn from this simplified example is
first step in determining the value of and the total construction costs that thinking in real options provides
the option is to evaluate all possible (including land costs). The intrinsic value extra insight in the value drivers of real
The next step is to determine the option value at this moment. This can be done by
future project values (sales revenues). In of the option is shown in a binomial tree estate projects. It is therefore a useful
the working first year, revenues from the are intrinsic €12,500,000 value in at figure expiration 1. date (year 2) back addition to the beginning to the other of methods the of risk
= 50 tree. x €250,000. The value In the first for year each there node is is calculated by multiplying the two assessment. possible values The real for options the point
an 80% chance on total sales revenues The next step is to determine the option of view can support us in integrating
subsequent year by the chances on upward (80%) or downward (20%) market
of €12,812,500 = 50 x €250,000 x 1.025, value at this moment. This can be done flexibility in risk analysis. Brink Groep
and development. accordingly a 20% This chance calculated on sales value by working needs from to the be intrinsic discounted value at the already given integrates discount this rate, flexibility in her
revenues as the of future €12,312,500. values The occur same one year expiration later. date Therefore, (year two) back the to option the value risk management in year 1 advice is 990 for real estate
calculations can be done for the second beginning of the tree. The value for each development projects. |
(right part of figure 1).
Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 0 Year 1 Year 2
1150 1150
900 (=50x(256-238)) 990 (= (80%x1.150+20%x600)/1,05)
750 600 847 600
400 486
150 150
F i g u r e 1 : O p t i o n v a l u e ( x € 1 , 0 0 0 )
Nekst 4 - June 2010 B l a d 2 13

www.brinkgroep.nl
Knap
als je met je
eerste carrièrestap
Nederland
vooruit brengt.
Management Advies Automatisering Bouw Huisvesting Vastgoed
Bij Brink Groep maak je de ambities waar van onze opdrachtgevers in bouw, huisvesting
en vastgoed. Dankzij onze medewerkers worden door heel Nederland prachtige projecten
opgestart. Zo hebben we de bouw van het ADO-stadion gecoached en maken we het
Stedelijk Museum Amsterdam klaar voor de toekomst. Nederland mooier maken klinkt goed,
maar hoe zit het met jouw eigen ambities? Wij geven alle ruimte voor je eigen ontwikkeling.
In een dynamische organisatie met informele sfeer werk je samen met collega’s die graag
denken én doen. In kleine gespecialiseerde teams kun je jouw vernieuwende ideeën kwijt en
leer je elke dag bij. Dus, ben je afgestudeerd en wil je het ver brengen? Ben je pragmatisch,
ondernemend en ambitieus? Kijk dan op onze website voor passend knap werk.
knap werk
E F t E L i N g
M e M B e r S D a Y
A few weeks ago we received a flyer about the Efteling. Who would not want to have a ride in attractions to
get a lot of adrenaline or wander around in the Fairy tale Forest (dutch: het Sprookjesbos) on a beautiful
day? Yes, of course we wanted to join the general Members day.
The evening before the General Members
Day, there was a party in 013, called Student
Sounds. This was really fun and we stayed
till the end. Therefore, we arrived home late,
and had to wake up very early. Besides, three
ladies sleeping in one room do certainly not
sleep immediately, which is a well-known
fact if you ask me. after about one and a
half hours of sleep, we had to wake up again.
We brushed our teeth and dressed up in notime,
so we would not be late for the bus.
fortunately, we saw the other participants at
the station when we arrived.
after about half an hour, the bus arrived
and brought us to the efteling. The sun was
shining, which was a good start of the day.
after a few minutes of waiting – we were a
little bit too early – we finally entered the
efteling.
We went to the water attraction Piraña, and
obviously I was sitting on the side where
you got soaked! Later, we went to the flying
Dutchman. In this attraction, you could not
get wet anywhere except for the three places
Senna, Daniëlle, and I were sitting of course.
The sun was shining, so we would not remain
wet for a long time.
T h e F a i r y T a l e F o r e s t
Luckily, it was not that crowded in the efteling,
so we did not have to wait very long to get
into an attraction. after a couple of hours,
we received a delicious lunch from asset
| econometrics. While eating our lunch we
could rest a bit, and thereafter we were ready
to start with the afternoon programme.
We started with a very big group. Some of
them went off with their own small groups,
but most of us stayed together for the rest of
the day. We went in almost every attraction
together. at the end of the day, we had been
to all the cool attractions. Nonetheless, there
was still some time left to go to the attraction
you still wanted to visit. Since not everyone
liked the same attractions, we separated
into smaller groups for the last two hours.
We went back to the Piraña and the flying
Dutchman just to check whether we were
cursed to get wet or we were just having bad
luck the other time. Guess what? It was just
bad luck. The second time we went into the
two attractions, all three of us stayed dry.
at about 18:00 we had to return to Tilburg,
so we took the bus again. Unfortunately, we
were not the only ones. There were a lot of
people in the bus and it was very warm.Some
people (including me) were exhausted, so
they took a nap.
When we were back in Tilburg, we went to
Café Jack’s in the city centre of Tilburg. There
we got a drink and after a while a buffet was
opened. everyone could take a plate and eat
whatever he or she wanted to. There was a
lot of food, and it was very delicious! When
everyone was satisfied, we went home. Of
course, we were really tired after this day with
only one and a half hours of sleep. fortunately,
we could rest a bit at the weekend and get
some sleep. |
Name:
Marleen Veldhuijzen
Nekst 4 - June 2010 1
Age:
18
Begin studies:
2009

h i L o S o P h Y o F t h E E c o N o M Y
T H e T e a C H e r
usually these two pages deal with a teacher of an econometrics course. the Nekst editors decided, however,
that we should introduce you to a special econometrician for the last Nekst of this academic year. Most of
you will know him as the teacher of the course ‘Philosophy of the Economy’, and the freshmen are likely to
think of one of their first courses, ‘Macroeconomics’, when reading his name.
Name:
Johan Graafland
Position:
Full Professor
The teacher of the matter is none other than
Johan Graafland, who kindly accepted our
request for an interview, so we could shed
some light on this particularly interesting
teacher. If you read on, you will surely find out
why Nekst interviewed him.
the Student
Born in Woerden, a town near Utrecht and
Gouda, Johan was raised in a few different cities
before his family settled down in Gouda, at the
time he was sixteen. Soon after, he was ready
to attend university, although he was rather
clueless about what to study at first. after
filling in a test on this matter, it told him to
study econometrics. Graafland: “I did not quite
agree with the result however, as I was more
interested in the ‘human’ side of the economy,
and thus I decided to study economics instead,
at the erasmus University in rotterdam. My
study did focus on econometrics more and
more as I progressed though.” after eight years
of studying in rotterdam, Johan graduated
and had already fetched a job at the Central
Planning Bureau by that time. at the same
time, he started working one day a week on a
dissertation at erasmus University rotterdam.
He moved back to Gouda as it was near The
Hague, where he worked four days a week.
In 1990, Johan finished his dissertation on the
causes of unemployment in the Netherlands.
Nevertheless, he also remained a student
for some time afterwards. He had always felt
a certain appeal towards philosophy and
theology, being raised as a Christian. This
explains why he studied Theology in Utrecht
on Saturdays, while doing the other load of
this study at home. He graduated for Theology
in 1998.
the Employee
after his first study, he started working at a
department of the Central Planning Bureau,
where they set up models that could be used
to analyse government policies. When Johan
joined this sector modelling department,
they were just about to finish a major sector
model. But when the model was finally done
they could throw it away immediately because
another team at the Central Planning Bureau
had come up with a model of the same kind,
which was chosen to be used instead.
So, right after one year, Johan moved to another
department that started building a CGe model,
the so-called MIMIC-model, which is still used
nowadays. Graafland: “The MIMIC-model is our
reaction to the well-known Lucas critique that
the models back then used parameters that
are not invariant to policy. The strength of
CGe models is that they are based on microeconomic
theory. We created the MIMIC-model
because the government was discussing what
the new tax regime should be like at that time.
The MIMIC-model was a tool used to look at
the consequences of different tax regimes.” In
2001 they created a new version of this model
because of criticism from other scientists.
the Professor
after he graduated in Theology and had
finished the second version of the MIMICmodel,
he thought it would be nice and
interesting to do something related to the
Christian vision on the economy, which was
the subject of his doctoral thesis (as well as
the theme of a book he wrote later in 2007:
‘Het oog van de naald’, recently published in
english under the title ‘The Market, Happiness
and Solidarity’). from some acquaintances he
heard of a vacancy at Tilburg University (at
that time the Catholic University Brabant),
which seemed very interesting. Johan: “The
only problem was that part of the job dealt
with corporate social responsibility, and this
was a field I was inexperienced in, as I knew
nothing about it. Nevertheless I applied, and
1 Nekst 4 - June 2010
after some procedures I was accepted.
The first few years I spent time learning
about this subject and working in it.”
Johan is currently part of the Tilburg
Sustainability Centre, which also deals
with corporate social responsibility. Not
too long ago a fund for a european project
concerning this subject was given, and it
so happens that the consortium Johan
was in received this fund. The preparation
of the research proposal took him a lot
of time though, about 120 hours in total.
Johan: “I have worked for things like these
in the past before, and when it turned out
that I was unable to receive the funds, it
really frustrated me.” Luckily he got the
fund this time, and for this project he will
have to do a lot of econometrical work in
the years to come.
Concerning his educational work at
the university, Graafland started with
the course ‘Business ethics’ and added
‘Philosophy of the economy’ later. This
workload became too much after a while,
so he had to lay off ‘Business ethics’. The
other course he taught is ‘Macroeconomics
for eOr’, which was a one time event.
Johan admits it was quite a change to give
these lectures: “I had spent most of my
time at university looking at economics
from another perspective, so going back
to things I had been taught almost thirty
years ago was a bit of a challenge. I also
never worked with freshmen before, so
I had not a clue about what to expect.
Before I taught this course, however, I had
worked with economists as I was taking
steps towards economics again.”
When ‘Philosophy of the economy’ was
mentioned, Johan told us he noticed
that econometricians have less affinity
with philosophy than economists. He
thinks this is because most economists
are in a position in which they have to
deal with such problems more frequently
than econometricians. Johan states that
economists more often than not end up
in positions dealing with policy making,
whereas econometricians, in general, do
not have to think about, for example, the
ethical consequences of certain policies.
This only holds for those that do not work
for the government or in science, though.
the Media
Our professor is a relatively well-known
person, as he has written quite a few
columns for different newspapers, most
of them Christian, and has been asked for
his opinion on several radio programmes.
The latter one usually requires a lot of
travelling time, so he sometimes declines
such offers. If he has to estimate his
activity, Johan guesses he has been ‘in the
news’ about twenty times last year.
the Man himself
Of course, there is more to Johan
Graafland than work. When he is not
busy working, he enjoys spending his
time on sports. Johan has a preference
for ball and net sports. He used to play
table tennis and football a lot, and now
he has moved on to tennis and mountain
walking. Unfortunately, he does not have
a lot of time for these activities because
of his busy schedule. Besides sports he
likes photography; he always tries to take
his camera with him on holidays. He talks
about a book club as well, in which he
meets up with friends every six weeks to
discuss a book all of them have read in
the past few weeks. These meetings are
a lot of fun, as you get different opinions
and interpretations about certain matters
in the book. Moreover, it is a nice way to
spend time with friends. The books they
read usually have a philosophical or
theological theme.
Graafland also had a tip for the students in
econometrics: “I do not know your opinion
on books, but I surely recommend you to
read a lot. There is so much you can learn
from well written books. for example,
students should read the books that have
surely had an impact on this world; it is
definitely worth the time to read at first
hand the work of the original authors
cited in the theory you learn.” |
Text by: Fang Qi Wu
Johan graafland’s choices:
Bert or Ernie?
Ernie
Writing or reading?
Writing
computer or Pen & Paper?
Computer
Student or Scientist?
Scientist
cinema or theatre?
Theatre
Economics or Philosophy?
Economics
Football or tennis?
Tennis
carnaval or christmas?
Christmas
A Fair or theme Park?
Theme Park
company or university?
University
Nekst 4 - June 2010 17

o N o t t r Y t h i S A t h o M E
a C T I V e M e M B e r S W e e K e N D
this is what we received: a bunch of envelopes, a little item, a rubber cover for an iPod (from the ActioN),
and a set of orders. do Not open the envelopes before you enter the train. do everything you are told by
the cards in the envelopes. do make something useful out of the ActioN product (production costs ≈ €0.02,
retail price ≈ €0. 0) by trading it with other people on the train.
Name:
Timo Deist
Age:
21
Begin studies:
2008
actually, even obtaining another aCTION
product would have been a success, but
more about that later...
Back to the beginning. all of us, a carefully
selected subset of members of asset |
econometrics, gathered at Tilburg Central
Station on friday morning, 9 april. We had
no idea about where we would end up at
the end of the day or what we were about
to face. We only knew our fellow group
members and the answers we gave in a very
cryptic questionnaire, which was handed out
a few weeks before. I ended up in a group
with four charming women. The credits for
that probably go to the box next to ‘I am
a woman’ on the questionnaire, which I
happened to tick at that time (do not ask).
Nonetheless, the sour note was that I was
now a proud member of ‘The Cookies’, and
got to wear an apron for the rest of the
weekend. On the other hand, we looked the
fanciest among all the blue and pink T-shirt
uniforms of other groups.
Upon arrival, the committee surprised us
with two good services: a packed lunch and
a carriage service for our luggage. The true
reason for this benevolence was to come
apparent as soon as we stepped out of the
train three hours later. The march that we
had made could not have been endured with
extra luggage even by the greatest die-hards
among us.
after having been freed of all burdens, we
got chucked on a train and we began the
hunt for the final destination of our journey.
Thanks to my teammates, we did not end
up in Den Haag, but in Putten. This is the
unofficial capital and probably the busiest
place of the Netherlands, or is it not? Our
journey finished at a cosy barn on a farm.
Some of us immediately made use of the
attractions offered to young people (i.e. a
playground) and older people (i.e. beer) as to
be observed on the photos. The trade results
were proudly compared among all the teams.
‘The Sportsmen’ in the blue shirts surely
won the contest, because they dropped a
portable sandbox in front of our feet. Others
claimed to have obtained ruud Hendrickx’s
old ‘Winnie the Pooh’ manicure case.
after a spaghetti feast, the evening continued
with a (not-so-short) walk to the beach of a
nearby lake, which was enriched by refreshing
beverages, the expectation of sand, and a
revitalising breeze. Only after we arrived
back at the farm, we discovered a detailed
map with the shortest way to the beach.
at least we know for next time. Then, the
glorious Tall Men Community seized power
over the air above 180 cm. The community
held its first General Members Meeting, in
which their (not-so-tall) chairman Harold
van Heijst was overthrown by frans fonville
with the support of the crowd. furthermore,
next to the appointment of Geert alkema
as treasurer, a new secretary was appointed
and took over frans’ former position. after
ascension to power, the community’s first
action was to announce Harold as honorary
member of the Tall Men Community due to
his achievements for community and country.
The rest of the night was spent on drinking
beer and other beer related activities until
shortly before breakfast.
Sweetly tickling sounds of metalwork
announced a new morning and the upcoming
physical exercise we were about to face and
maybe even survive. No morning, however,
starts without an extensive coffee breakfast,
even not during an active Members
Weekend. after being carefully nursed by
Douwe egberts and his companions, we
started our trip to the local ropes course.
18 Nekst 4 - June 2010
Sitting in the trailer of a tractor was
a welcome change to the extensive
walks of the day before. Therefore, it
created a moment of unhurriedness
for us as well as for our friends in the
trail of cars behind us on the singlelane
street.
after security instructions and a
practice course, we spread across
the wood to experience a mixture of
altitude, speed, and physical exercise.
This turned out to be much harder
than expected when standing on the
not-so-wearisome-but-safe ground. I
must admit that jumping from a tree
at an altitude of approximately four
metres requires some considerable
effort. for the younger reader: do
NOT try this at home. for the record,
we were still connected to a safety
rope. Some of us dared to go to the
experts’ course, while the rest of us
enjoyed the scenery in the forest.
furthermore, we were about to
observe a real-life example of Darwin’s
theories involving education-averse
participants, fire, and a dry forest. In
the end, the experiment was spoiled
by the supervisors.
This disappointment was compensated
by a pancake snack, which closed the
afternoon programme in the forest.
Then we plunged back into our seats
on the trailer to get back to the barn
and to what we ended with in the
morning: coffee. Of course, I welcomed
this idea (not to say that I was one of
the initiators), and not too few joined
us in our pursuit of the black ambrosia.
a few minutes later, however, the
traditional barbecue began. Demand
for all kinds of meat exceeded supply
by far, and our approved juniors of BBQ
Masters Whitney and emy struggled
to keep up.
One event followed the other and so
we fought a hard battle in the card
game ‘Toepen’ before we started off
with a pub-crawl, which was only
pursued by half of our group: some
preferred the warmth of our resting
A c t i v e M e m b e r s i n t h e t r e e s a t t h e r o p e s c o u r s e
place to the expectation of having
to wait for a bus outside in the cold.
Therefore, this night was spent in the
same way as the night before, but
it never lost anything of its charm.
Besides, nobody forgot about the
scrambled eggs and bacon at night,
although we had to do without the
latter.
The next morning dawned and we
gathered for a final breakfast. after a
cake-assassination on Harold, which
ended up in frans’ face, and the
resulting clean-up, we (all seriously
flawed by the events of the past days)
left for a relaxing visit at the local
swimming pool, which can also be
narrowed down to occupying the only
available Jacuzzi for three consecutive
hours.
Back in Tilburg, I wondered how to
survive the upcoming week, but I
certainly know that I will be asking
the same question twelve months
from now. |
Nekst 4 - June 2010 19

h o i S g o i N g t o B E r E L E g A t E d
A N d W h Y ?
f O O T B a L L S P e C I a L
in a recent working paper co-authored with Jean-Baptiste dherbecourt 1 , the question of the determinants
of promotion and relegation in European professional football leagues was investigated. this report
discusses several issues concerning promotion and relegation in European football leagues, and it gives an
overview of the most important results of our research.
Name:
Bastien Drut
Position:
PhD candidate
university:
Center Emile Bernheim
(Université Libre de
Bruxelles) &
EconomiX-CNRS
(Université Paris Ouest
Nanterre La Défense)
actually, the organisation of european sports
leagues broadly differs from the organisation
of leagues in North america. In North america,
the clubs participating in the leagues (e.g. NBa,
NHL, NfL) remain the same year after year. On
the contrary, in europe, the best clubs at the
end of the season are promoted to the superior
division and the worst clubs are relegated to
the inferior division. This type of hierarchical
structure has been applied in european football
since the creation of the english league in 1888.
a very lively debate, however, regularly takes
place on the opportunity to adopt the american
model. for instance, the biggest european clubs
frequently evoke the possibility to play in closed
leagues, both national and international.
The consequence of the opened structure is that
clubs have stronger incentives to compete in
order to stay in the elite. Indeed, in addition of the
fans’ disappointment, the relegation often leads
to human and financial drama. as the club will
receive less money from television broadcasting
rights, sponsoring, and matchday revenues 2 , it
has to sell players with high salaries or fire some
staff members (coach, assistants, etcetera). In a
certain way, the relegated club is downsized.
On the opposite, after promotion, a club can
adopt a positive development strategy: hiring
new players, construction of a new stadium
(which is a very heavy investment), etcetera. The
difference in incentives between opened and
closed leagues was studied in detail by several
authors (Noll, 2002; Szymanski and Valetti,
2005). Noll (2002) argues that the promotionrelegation
system tends to improve the general
quality of the squads in the top division as clubs
have an incentive to improve the quality of the
team in this system in order to stay in the elite.
Szymanski and Valetti (2005) show that the fear
of relegation diminishes the incentives to share
revenues 3 and increases inequalities among
teams. If the consequences of promotion and
relegation have been extensively studied in
the literature of sports economics, then these
determinants are not to our knowledge.
actually, top division clubs have to invest (e.g.
by hiring good players or by training young
players) to secure their position and to stay
better armed than the other clubs. In order
to understand this, one has to consider that
sportive performances during a season are far
from random and highly depending on wage
expenditures. The example of arsenal is rather
convincing: the club has never been relegated
to the second english division since World War II.
If the sportive ranking at the end of the season
would have been random, the probability on
not to be relegated 4 during 65 years would have
been , i.e. lower than 0.003%. another clue
is given by the work of Hoehn and Szymanski
(1999). By studying the english leagues during
the period 1978-1996, they show that the
ranking at the end of the season is highly
correlated with the average wage expenditure
relative to the mean of the clubs 5 . In other
words, if you are more able to pay your players
more than other clubs, you will be better ranked.
Of course, this does not exclude chance from a
given match (even Manchester United may lose
against a poor squad one day). In the long run,
however, wage expenditures roughly explain
the sportive results.
This being said, are wages enough to explain
promotion and relegation? We do not believe
that it is reasonable to stop the analysis at
this stage, because additional factors could
impact the team’s success such as hiring a new
coach (the adaptation to a new strategy may
imply additional costs), injuries, the collective
inexperience of the squad, the possible
mispricing of wages, etcetera. Moreover, in order
to clearly understand the football industry, one
also has to explain why some clubs have more
spending power than others. Our research
focuses on these two questions.
20 Nekst 4 - June 2010
as the variable we want to explain (i.e.
promotion or relegation) is binary, we
use a logistic model. The explanatory
variables contain the wage expenditures
and some additional variables: average
age of the players, percentage of
foreign players, dummy whether there
is a new manager. We concentrated
our study on the english and french
clubs as data on wages in other big
european Championships were not
available. for the moment, our results
are still very preliminary. Of course, wage
expenditures have a strong explanatory
power, and obviously increase promotion
probability and decrease relegation
probability. We also found that hiring
a new coach increases the relegation
probability significantly whereas it has
no significant impact on the promotion
probability. another finding is that
clubs with older players have a higher
probability to go down in the Premier
League, but not in the french league.
a possible explanation is that very rich
clubs have the possibility to detect and
hire very young and talented players
from all over the world. This has to be
complemented with other variables
though, in particular with governance
indicators.
In table 1, we expose the promotion
and relegation probabilities for the
Ligue 1 and the Ligue 2 (the first and
second divisions of the french football
league respectively) for the season
2008-2009. The model yields rather
good results as the clubs with a high
relegation probability (a high promotion
probability) are badly ranked (well
ranked). The most striking result is that
clubs are far from equal: 11 teams had
a relegation probability smaller than or
equal to 0.10 in Ligue 1. When the model
fails, i.e. when it does not correctly predict
promotion or relegation for a given
season, it is very likely that this mistake
will be corrected during the next season.
for instance, even though the two teams
with the highest relegation probability
were not relegated during the season
2008-2009, they were indeed relegated
the next season. as far as the promotion
is concerned, the two teams with the
highest promotion probability (Lens and
Montpellier) were promoted. The third
promoted club, Boulogne-sur-Mer, had a
Ligue 1 Ligue 2
Final
Final
Club Relegation Probability Ranking Club Promotion Probability Ranking
Grenoble 0.52 13 Lens 1.00 1
Le Mans 0.43 16 Montpellier 0.73 2
Nancy 0.29 15 Troyes 0.41 19
Le Havre 0.29 20 Reims 0.28 20
Valenciennes 0.28 12 Sedan 0.18 9
St. Etienne 0.26 17 Guingamp 0.16 13
Nice 0.18 9 Amiens 0.15 18
Nantes 0.17 19 Chateauroux 0.13 15
Caen 0.12 18 Metz 0.13 5
Lorient 0.10 10 Nimes 0.10 17
Toulouse 0.09 4 Boulogne 0.09 3
Auxerre 0.08 8 Angers 0.09 7
Lille 0.07 5 Ajaccio 0.09 16
Sochaux 0.06 14 Strasbourg 0.08 4
Monaco 0.04 11 Bastia 0.08 11
Rennes 0.03 7 Dijon 0.08 8
PSG 0.00 6 Brest 0.07 14
Bordeaux 0.00 1 Clermont 0.06 12
Marseille 0.00 2 Vannes 0.05 10
Lyon 0.00 3 Tours 0.04 6
Considering the fact that the best ranked clubs get the highest revenues 6 T a b l e 1
and are in this way more
able to attract talented players the following year, one can understand that a self-reinforcing
phenomenon is occurring. The richest clubs hire relatively better players, are ranked better, earn
more money, and so on. For this reason, freshly promoted clubs are unable to compete with wellestablished
clubs in the first division and do not succeed in settling durably in the elite. In European
very low promotion probability (0.09).
Nonetheless, this club was eventually
relegated to the second division at the
end of the season 2009-2010.
Considering the fact that the best
ranked clubs get the highest revenues 6
and are in this way more able to attract
talented players the following year, one
can understand that a self-reinforcing
phenomenon is occurring. The richest
clubs hire relatively better players, are
ranked better, earn more money, and
so on. for this reason, freshly promoted
clubs are unable to compete with wellestablished
clubs in the first division
and do not succeed in settling durably
in the elite. In european football
championships, there is a hard core of
clubs in the first division with a very low
probability of relegation. Indeed, we may
conclude that european football leagues
are far less opened than one might think. |
1. Dherbecourt J.-B. and B. Drut, Who will go down this
year ? The determinants of promotion and relegation
in european soccer leagues. Working Paper of
Université Libre de Bruxelles, N°09-38.
2. for professional football clubs, the revenues consist
almost exclusively of television broadcasting rights,
matchday revenues, and sponsoring.
3. In most of the major european championships
(england, Germany, france, and Italy soon), the
league negotiates the television broadcasting rights
collectively and subsequently redistributes the
proceeds to the clubs by using its own criteria.
4. Only the three worst-ranked teams at the end of the
season are relegated.
5. The r-square of the OLS regression is 0.92.
6. for instance, television broadcasting rights are
redistributed explicitly in function of sportive results.
references
Hoehn T. and S. Szymanski, 1999, The americanization
of european football. Economic Policy, vol. 28, 205-240.
Noll r., 2002, The economics of Promotion and
relegation in Sports Leagues. Journal of Sports
Economics, vol. 3(2), 169-203.
Szymanski S. and T. Valetti, 2005, Promotion and
relegation in Sporting Contests. Rivista di Politica
Economica, vol. 95(5/6), 3-39.
Nekst 4 - June 2010 21

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W i t h c r Y i N g E Y E S
e x C U r S I O N P H I L I P M O r r I S
A few weeks ago, on Wednesday 14 April to be exactly, a course excursion to the huge factory of Philip Morris
holland (PMh) in Bergen op Zoom was planned. Philip Morris is the biggest producer of tobacco in the Netherlands.
this excursion was highly recommended by Prof. Ashayeri, lecturer of the course Production Management, because
some principles, theories, and systems that were discussed during this course would be shown in practice by PMh.
In the morning, everyone who had subscribed
for the excursion to PMH was expected to be
present at the reception room of PMH at 12:30.
Most of the students gathered at Tilburg Central
Station around 11:00 in order to go by train. In my
case, it was more efficient to travel by car as this
resulted in less wasted time. Because I am writing
my bachelor’s thesis these months, each hour is
essential. The main reason was probably to stay
longer in my bed.
around 11:45 I departed from Gilze together with
a fellow student, Ludwig van den Ouweland. We
found a free parking lot on the site of PMH. as
soon as we got out of the car, we smelled tobacco.
This smell did not leave my nose until I had
taken a shower at home. We walked towards the
reception room where we met the other students.
Once the group was complete, some strict rules
for entering the factory were explained. One of
these rules was the following: everyone is allowed
to try and smoke free cigarettes at the indicated
areas inside the factory, but you may take only two
(free) cigarettes with you outside the factory. If we
violated this rule, we would be accused of theft.
Moreover, if an employee violates this rule, he
will be fired immediately. Because of these rules,
smokers have to hand in their cigarettes before
entering the factory. In this way, the company is
sure that nobody leaves the factory with stolen
cigarettes, but only with their own cigarettes,
which are returned at the reception at the end of
the day.
after we were admitted inside the factory, we were
introduced to the business by an econometrician,
who worked as a supply chain manager. It was
interesting to observe the application of theory
in practice. He described the current status of
PMH, how they became such a big factory, which
decisions they made in the past or still have to
make, and the grounds for their directions. He did
not answer all our questions, however, because
he wanted to leave some open for the case study
after the guided tour. Before we started with the
guided tour through the factory, we had to take
off our ties and put on safety shoes. We received
a headset in order to be able to hear the guide,
because it was very noisy inside the factory. The
guide showed us the whole process, from the
beginning of incoming raw tobacco to the end of
packaging the cigarettes and stuffing the pallets.
In the area where the raw tobacco is transformed
into the final tobacco that is ready for use, the
smell of tobacco was horrendous. Sometimes my
eyes were crying and breathing became very hard.
fortunately, we did not spend a lot of time in this
area. The place where they make the cigarettes
was more pleasant. Besides, the activities in this
area were more interesting as well.
Production of the cigarettes happens according
to a Just-In-Time (JIT) planning. The associated
principles have been discussed several times
during the lectures of Production Management.
Therefore, it was nice to see its application in
practice. The characteristics of JIT, like low Work-
In-Process (WIP) and small inventory levels were
clearly identifiable. as a result of practical problems,
however, JIT has not been fully implemented in
PMH. for example, some of the activities of JIT
cannot be implemented because of uncertainties
in practice. This illustrated that you should not
only have knowledge of theory, but also of the
environment in practice and its possibilities.
We finished the day with a case study. We had to
answer three current questions for the company.
Three groups, consisting of five students each,
discussed and treated these questions. The
final recommendations for each question were
presented by every group. after some final
feedback of the manager and Prof. ashayeri, the
excursion was finished: time to go home and get
a breath of fresh air! Overall, it was an interesting
and instructive excursion. Therefore, I am already
looking forward to the next activity in the field of
Operations research. |
Name:
Niels de Bresser
Nekst 4 - June 2010 23
Age:
21
Begin studies:
2007

i N N i N g P r i Z E S W i t h
B A r r E Lt A L K i N g
T H e M O T H e r O f J a N N e K e V a N S C H I J N D e L
For the already common section ‘the Mother of ’, two editors of Nekst went to raamsdonksveer
to interview the mother of Janneke: Ella van Schijndel. She told us many stories about herself,
her youth, and Janneke’s youth.
Name:
Ella van Schijndel
residence:
Raamsdonksveer
Mother of:
Janneke van Schijndel
Begin studies:
2009
at the moment, ella lives together with her
son Bram in raamsdonksveer, which is close
to Breda. In order to get to raamsdonksveer,
we had to take the bus, which gave us a nice
trip through the beautiful countryside of
Brabant. Not only does ella currently live in
raamsdonksveer, she was also born there in
1960. When someone has lived in a certain
village for that long, it has to be a great
village. Therefore, raamsdonksveer probably
is a great village.
ella went to secondary school in Oosterhout.
after receiving her HaVO diploma, she
studied to become a neonatal intensive care
nurse. a neonatal intensive care nurse takes
care of early-born babies, who have to stay in
the hospital in an incubator. She is still doing
this work at the amphia Hospital in Breda.
at this hospital, she followed a part of her
study programme; she did another part at the
academic Medical Centre in amsterdam.
ella has done many sports in her spare time.
In the past she was a fanatical handball
player, being the goalkeeper of the team.
after Janneke’s birth, her first baby, she
stopped playing handball as it became a little
bit scary to see all the balls being thrown at
her. Then she tried a few other sports, and
concluded that spinning was the sport she
liked the most. after some problems with
her knee, however, she stopped spinning. for
a while now, ella has worked in the garden,
which she never did before as she did not like
it. Nevertheless, she found out that it is nice
to work in the garden, and now she does it
with pleasure. ella has also played in the band
Percussão for six years now. This band plays
Brazilian samba, and ella plays the Tamborim,
which is a small drum.
Because all these activities are still not
enough for ella, she also has the hobby
‘barreltalking’ (Dutch: ‘tonpraten’) since 2004.
This is a kind of cabaret in which the speaker
has to stand in a barrel. Since barreltalking
is related to carnaval, it takes place during
carnaval or one of the weeks before, during
a so-called ‘Sauwelgala’. all the speakers play
some kind of character, and for this purpose
they are dressed up in a certain costume.
ella usually borrows some clothes from
friends for her outfits, which results in very
creative outfits. There is also a competition
element: the speaker with the funniest
performance wins. Some of the characters,
which ella used for her performances, are
Nurse Prikkie, a holidaymaker and a nun. She
also did a performance with one of her two
older brothers once, who has this hobby as
well. ella is pretty good at barreltalking: she
has already won three times in a row, which
had never happened before! Besides, she was
also the first woman to win in 25 years time.
although she does not like the trophies, which
are sculptures of a man in a barrel, there are
still two of them standing in the living room.
although ella is not that much of a carnaval
partier, she has a lot to thank for it. Next to
barreltalking, she also met her husband, Jan,
during the carnaval of 1980. This resulted in
Janneke’s birth twelve years later. although
we call Janneke ‘Janneke’ all the time, this is
not the name that appeared on her passport.
This is because Jan was so happy when
Janneke was born that he started acting a bit
strange: when he went to the town hall for
Janneke’s birth registration, he accidentally
registered the name elizabeth Maria instead
of Janneke elizabeth Maria.
after Janneke was born, ella started working
less to raise Janneke. as Jan worked as a
policeman, they both had to work at irregular
times, which gave some difficulties as there
always had to be someone with Janneke. ella
24 Nekst 4 - June 2010
J a n n e k e ’ s b i r t h d a y
even worked as a standby employee
for a while, but she did not like it as she
was only called when necessary. after a
year she began to work as a permanent
employee again. fortunately, they
found a baby-sitter, which solved their
problems. Nekst was sorry to hear that
Janneke’s father passed away a few
years ago, and nowadays ella takes
care of the family by herself.
Janneke was very easy and disciplined
in her youth. ella gave us an example
about how disciplined Janneke is. In
nursery school, they had to make a
present for a teacher because she had
been employed for twelve and a half
years. Therefore, they all had to make
a chick out of paper. Because it was
easier if one child would do all the
work, Janneke was forced to do this.
although she did not like it at all, she
did it very concentrated while all the
other children were running through
the class. furthermore, Janneke and
her younger brother Bram could play
together very well. They never had a
fight. Janneke was mostly the boss over
Bram, but he did not have a problem
with that. Moreover, they both did
karate, a sport of which ella is not a fan,
since she does not like fighting sports
at all. ella likes team sports a lot more.
Nekst also wondered about ella’s
thoughts on the kind of job Janneke
will have in the future. During her
childhood, Janneke always told the
weather forecast to ella, so ella thought
she would become a weatherwoman.
Janneke herself always wrote in
friends-books that she would become a
director. In the third year of secondary
school, she already knew that she
wanted to study econometrics. ella
had expected that she would study
Chemistry. Janneke did not want to go
to medical school, because it would
have taken too much time before she
would have graduated. There is no one
in the family who has a great capacity
for mathematics. ella herself, however,
does like mathematics.
ella did not mind too much when
Janneke started living in lodges in
Tilburg. She says that it is part of your
life, and she still sees Janneke every
weekend. ella herself lived in lodges for
a while, but she did not like it. This was
because she had to live in a very small
room and with female nursery students
only. Downstairs in the same flat, the
rooms were bigger, but they were not
allowed to use these rooms because
of safety. If she would have lived in
lodges now, she would probably have
enjoyed it a lot more.
Nekst wonders whether Janneke is the
ideal daughter-in-law. They both think
differently about this. ella thinks she
is, but Janneke is not sure about that.
Their thoughts on whether ella is the
ideal mother-in-law are the same. They
both think ella is the ideal mother-inlaw,
because she is not difficult at all.
ella is not sure about the number of
grandchildren she would like to have,
but she would certainly like to have
at least one. That is something for the
future, however, because she does not
want to have grandchildren at this age.
Due to her work, she knows at what
age most people become parents.
It seems that the trend is towards
getting children at a younger age, so
maybe she has to ‘fear’ becoming a
grandmother in a little while? as a final
advice to Janneke, she says: “enjoy life,
because you do not know what will
happen in the future.” |
Text by: Has van Vlokhoven
Nekst 4 - June 2010 2

A S t h E g r E E K d E B t c r i S i S
P r E d i c t A B L E ?
C O L U M N
during the 2000s, the greek economy was one of the fastest growing in the euro zone: in the period 2000-2007,
annual gdP growth averaged 4.2%. during the past months, however, rating agencies repeatedly downgraded the
greek government. As a result, capital markets demanded increasingly higher interest rates and eventually the greek
government could no longer borrow money from capital markets. the question is: was this debt crisis predictable?
Name:
Martin Salm
Position:
Assistant Professor
Since 2000, Greece benefited from decreasing
interest rates and an influx of foreign capital in
anticipation of joining the european Monetary
Union in 2004. as of 2008, however, the Greek
economy was badly affected by the global
economic crisis as revenues from shipping
and tourism decreased. In November 2009 a
newly elected government announced that the
projected budget deficit for 2009 was around
12.7% of GDP: more than twice the previous
announced figures. It became clear that the
previous government had systematically
manipulated official statistics and underreported
budget deficits. In the end, other euro zone
members had to bail them out, after agreeing to
severe budget cuts.
Many aspects of the Greek debt crisis fit typical
patterns of previous sovereign debt crises, which
are described in a very interesting book by
Carmen reinhart and Kenneth rogoff, a former
chief economist at the International Monetary
fund. 1 In their book, reinhart and rogoff examine
typical factors that make sovereign default more
likely. a sovereign default is defined as a situation
in which a government misses a principal or
interest payment in due time. Sovereign default
is not simply a question of how much debt a
country has accumulated. Greece had a debtto-GDP
ratio of around 115% when access to
capital markets was shut off, whereas Japan pays
only 1.3% for ten year government bonds even
though it has a higher debt-to-GDP ratio. Many
other countries have defaulted with debt-to-GDP
ratios substantially below the 60% criterion of
the european growth and stability pact. However,
there are some typical patterns associated with
sovereign default. first, there seem to be some
countries that are especially prone to default.
Since independence in 1830, Greece defaulted
five times and spent almost 50% of the years in
default since independence. In contrast, the last
default on Dutch government debt was in 1814.
furthermore, sovereign default is more likely to
countries with a high ratio of external debt. for
example, up to 70% of Greek government debt
is rumoured to be held by foreigners.
Sovereign debt crises often happen after a
prolonged period of massive capital inflows
which allow the build-up of debt. The situation
then typically becomes unstable when
government revenues decrease as a result of
recession or falling prices for export goods. In
such a situation, access to capital markets can be
shut off very suddenly. Investors can lose faith
in the repayment of loans, for example because
of signs of political instability, the revelation
of scandals, or debt crises in neighbouring
countries. If interest rates become too high or
no additional money can be borrowed to repay
existing loans, governments default on their
debt. Many of these patterns fit the current
Greek crisis remarkably well.
So what happens to countries who cannot repay
their debts? The consequences can be dramatic.
Newfoundland lost its independence in 1933 to
Canada as a result of sovereign default. In many
cases, however, there is not much that creditors
can do to regain their loans. Typically, defaulting
governments are cut off from international
capital markets for some years or, more
recently, they receive emergency loans from
the International Monetary fund if they agree
to strict budget cuts and structural reforms. In
the case of Greece, the Greek government has
not defaulted on any loans yet. But prominent
economists such as Martin feldstein predict that
eventual default is almost inevitable. If defaulting
countries re-enter capital markets after some
years, they often face borrowing conditions no
worse than before the crisis. Then the cycle of
sovereign debt and default can start anew. |
1. Carmen reinhart & Kenneth rogoff, This time is different:
eight centuries of financial folly. Princeton University Press,
2009.
2 Nekst 4 - June 2010
c h A L L E N g E S i N c o N S u Lt A N c Y
a S S e T C O N S U L T a N C Y e x P e r I e N C e
Early in the morning on 11 May, we gathered at the railway station of tilburg to go to Amsterdam for the first
edition of the Asset consultancy Experience. For this first edition, 2 students were selected in total, of which
twenty were from tilburg university. in a little while, we arrived at the head office of Bain & company located
in the rembrandt tower.
Bain & Company introduced itself by means
of its logo. This logo is a compass of which
the arrow points north, but with a slight
deviation to the right. an employee explained:
“True north is a navigational point on a gyro
compass: an unchanging point of reference
and grounding, despite shifting conditions and
turbulent environments. an ordinary compass
finds magnetic north easily, but is unreliable
because of changes in magnetic north with
respect to time and location. True north never
wavers.” This explained Bain & Company in
short: a results-orientated company, looking for
real lasting improvements within companies.
The case of this company focused on the
telecom industry. Over the last decade, the
telecom industry had been growing from an
emerging market into a saturated market.
Competition had been fierce and ‘MobileCo’
had suffered as a consequence of this. Our
task was to identify the consumer types, and
to select the two most suitable consumers
for its business. Many things had to be taken
into consideration, such as the quality of the
network and the price range, but also the needs
of the consumers and their willingness to pay.
The major mistake, which was made during
the day, was the misidentification of the right
consumer types as it pertains to the size of
the market. although a certain consumer type
might be more profitable per person, this may
not hold for the entire market.
after a day of hard work, we went to Villa
ruysch to have dinner. During the dinner, we
had the opportunity to talk to the employees,
ranging from junior associates to consultants.
The evening was concluded by a nice drink in
the city centre of amsterdam. We spent the
night in the luxurious Krasnapolsky hotel,
where all students were overwhelmed by
the great variety of food to choose from for
breakfast.
McKinsey was the second company we visited
during the asset Consultancy experience. This
company presented a case about the 50%
reduction in CO2 emission of households in
europe. as most of the invited students were
economics students, this proved to be quite a
challenge. It was not only a lack of substantial
knowledge of current and (possibly) new
technologies, but also of national and eU
regulations influencing the possibilities.
Besides, the teams got a package of data that
was incomplete, thereby challenging the teams
to come up with an innovative conclusion.
Quite a few teams came up with (a part of )
the right solution, such as the stimulation of
electric cards. The classical solution of planting
more trees was mentioned by everyone, which
had indeed been proved to be correct as it
was also mentioned in the official McKinsey
report.
The asset Consultancy experience ended
with a nice dinner and a drink. after two days
of analysing problems, thinking of answers
to these problems, and presenting solutions
to several cases, the participants left tired,
but satisfied. Many of them had become
enthusiastic about consultancy and got a good
impression of both companies. |
W o r k i n g o n a c a s e
Name:
Tristan van der Wal
Nekst 4 - June 2010 27
Age:
22
Study:
International Economics
& Finance
Begin studies:
2006

Wie de top wil bereiken heeft
meer nodig dan talent.
Met talent kan de wereld aan je voeten liggen. Maar talent alleen is nooit genoeg om de top te bereiken. Daarom is de Rabobank
al jaren sponsor van toptalenten uit de sportwereld. Want wij geloven dat talent gestuurd moet worden, tot bloei moet komen,
om vervolgens met de beste begeleiding het hoogste niveau te halen. Binnen de bank doen we dat niet anders. Talent is bijzonder.
Het moet gekoesterd en ontwikkeld worden. Alleen op die manier kan jouw talent uitgroeien tot een succesvolle carrière.
Spreekt onze zakelijke en menselijke benadering ook jou aan? Groei dan mee met een bank die nationaal en internationaal fl ink aan
de weg timmert. Wil je meer weten over de Rabobank als werkgever en over de vacatures die we op dit moment hebben? Kijk dan
op www.rabobank.nl/werken.
www.rabobank.nl/werken
Carrière maken bij dé favoriete
werkgever in Nederland.
Het is tijd voor de Rabobank.
M A S t A P A S Y V i N o S A N d
A P u B t o u r
f r e S H M e N a C T I V I T Y
to all freshmen who did not show up at the last Freshmen Activity: you missed a great time! You missed a
lovely dinner at restaurant Mas tapas y Vinos as well as the nice pubs we went to afterwards. Everyone who
did show up knows what happened that evening. For the rest of you, let me tell you why you should have
gone to the last Freshmen Activity!
dinner time
We were expected at restaurant Mas Tapas
y Vinos at 18:45. When I arrived, however,
nobody was there yet. My first thought was
that I had gone to the wrong restaurant, but
after waiting for five minutes the organisers
of the evening arrived. We went inside
and got upstairs, where some tables were
reserved for us. There were already some
bread and sauces on the tables. as soon as
the last participants arrived and found their
seats, we got something to drink. after fifteen
minutes, the people seated at the first table
received their tapas. The second table could
only admire how this group was eating from
all the tapas, with their smell and appearance
making them very hungry. Ten minutes later
table two was served as well and they could
finally taste the nice tapas.
There were many different kinds of tapas.
There was fish, meat with garlic butter, salad,
and much more. everyone ate as much as he
or she could, but at the end of the dinner
a lot of tapas were still left over. It was just
too much. Besides, we had not even had the
dessert yet. Some of us got a cup of coffee,
whereas others got a tasty ice-cream or
chocolate mousse.
‘Van horen Zeggen’
after this nice dinner, we went to pub ‘Van
Horen Zeggen’, which is Dutch for ‘by hearsay’.
The freshmen Committee told us that they
had a little surprise for us. They went to the bar
and bought us little shots. We could choose
from Boswandeling, apfelkorn, and some
other beverages. It was a nice surprise! When
everyone had received his or her shot, there
was one shot left. By the time we left the pub,
however, it was gone… We sang some songs
together, drank some beers, and danced with
some girls of another association. after half
an hour the committee said we had to leave,
since the plan was to go to three pubs that
evening. Therefore, we had to leave Café Van
Horen Zeggen, even though we were having
a good time.
café Joris
We went to Café Joris, and it did not take
long to forget Café Van Horen Zeggen. In
Café Joris it was a lot of fun, maybe even
more than in the previous pub. The freshmen
Committee told us they had another surprise
for us. This time we all got a drink. Most of
us got some beer, of course. The organisers
also brought two Mexican hats, which went
from person to person. at the end of the
evening, everyone had worn at least one of
the hats for a while. There were made a lot of
photos of people doing the weirdest things.
The longer the evening lasted, the more we
enjoyed ourselves.
When it was time to go to the last pub, Café
Bolle, we decided to stay. eventually, nobody
wanted to leave Café Joris. So we bought
some more beers, danced the rest of the
evening, and went home satisfied. |
F r e s h m e n a t M a s T a p a s Y V i n o s
Name:
Marlies Veenes
Nekst 4 - June 2010 29
Age:
19
Begin studies:
2009

A L L c E N t r E F o r E c A S t i N g
P r a C T I C a L r e P O r T
Surely you have called a call centre before. Everybody knows the endless reconnections to a different person,
the annoying music while you are waiting, and the inability of the call centre agents to answer your question
satisfactorily. Although it might seem simple to answer your call, the call centre world is elaborate and complicated.
during my internship at Anago, i peeked into the kitchen of a call centre in order to improve their service rate.
Name:
Mathijs Jansen
Age:
24
Begin studies:
2004
Call centres form an important part of
service-based companies. Over $300 billion is
spent on call centres worldwide. furthermore,
there are over 4 million call centre agents in
the USa, 800 thousand in the UK, and over
500 thousand in India. You can imagine that
making a good planning will reduce costs
tremendously.
In call centres, the main objective is to
minimise costs while trying to achieve a
certain service rate. This service rate can be,
for example, the percentage of calls answered
within five minutes or the percentage of
callers who do not hang up the phone while
waiting. Typically, call centres choose a service
rate of 95%. Obviously, you can easily hire a
considerable amount of people to achieve
that goal. This would, however, result in very
high costs.
Getting a high service rate against minimal
costs involves several steps. first of all, we
have to predict the number of calls for, say,
the next week. furthermore, we also need to
know how long it will take to deal with a call.
Some people will just have a simple question,
which can be answered within a minute, but
some calls could take up to ten minutes. With
this knowledge, we can estimate the number
of calls an agent can handle in an hour (the
workload). Once we have these estimates,
we can make a planning for the agents. as
the call volume is very irregular, call centres
typically employ students or other people
with a variable schedule. In that way, they
can deal with the differences in call volume
during the day. This, however, complicates
the process of making a schedule.
Due to the complexity of this problem, most
call centres subcontract these activities. This
is where anago came into the picture. anago
is a small software consulting firm based in
Houten. Their software package consists of
several modules, which can be assembled
to make an application for their customers.
for a call centre, this involves (amongst
others) a forecasting, planning, and several
reporting modules. The call centre planners
simply have to fill in the availability of the
agents, and the software will determine the
estimated number of calls, the workload, and
the planning.
My internship focused on improving the
performance of the forecasting module.
In particular when call volume showed a
seasonal pattern, current forecasts were
unreliable. Most of the data I used were from
a magazine publishing company. each month,
this company sent out invoices to their
customers to continue their subscription.
This caused an increase in call volume in the
days after the invoices. Moreover, call volume
was also different over the days. On Mondays,
call volume was significantly higher than
on fridays. This difference across days can
be seen as a separate seasonality effect.
Consequently, we have two seasonal effects,
which can amplify each other. To deal with
this effect, a new forecasting model had to
be developed.
Improving the forecasts consists of various
steps. Before we could even start forecasting,
we had to make sure the data were reliable.
The first step in this data check was finding
and correcting missing data. Due to system
failures it could happen that the system
reported zero calls for a certain time period.
for some time periods late in the evening,
however, it could happen that there were in
fact zero calls. The difficulty lies in making
a distinction between missing values and
real zero observations. This distinction was
eventually made on the assumption that call
arrivals are exponential and therefore the
30 Nekst 4 - June 2010
customers to continue their subscription. This caused an increase in call volume in the days after the invoices. Moreover, call volume was also different over
volume for a day can be seen as a draw Winters model was developed. The recent increase in the level effect. a
the days. On Mondays, call volume was significantly higher than on Fridays. This difference across days can be seen as a separate seasonality effect.
from the Poisson distribution. If we Holt-Winters model is an iterative small β makes that most of the weight
Consequently,
then compare
we have
the
two
observed
seasonal
value
effects,
with
which can amplify
model.
each
When
other. To
there
deal with
is new
this effect,
data,
a new
the
forecasting
is
model
put onto
had to be
previous
developed.
trend effects.
the probability of that value actually model parameters are updated for Because all the updating formulas are
Improving the forecasts consists of various steps. Before we could even start forecasting, we had to make sure that the data were reliable. The first step in
occurring in the Poisson distribution, the next forecast. The standard Holt- recursive, a small β makes that many
this data check was finding and correcting missing data. Due to system failures it could happen that the system reported zero calls for a certain time period.
we can identify the missing values. Winters model consists of estimates historical data are taken into account
For some time periods late in the evening, however, it could
for the
happen
level
that there
(L) of
were
the
in fact
forecast,
zero calls.
the
The difficulty
to calculate
lies in making
the
a distinction
new effect.
between
at each
missing The call values centre and real firm zero also observations. suspected This distinction trend was eventually ( T ), and made one on seasonality the assumption effect that call arrivals step all are the exponential effects and will therefore be updated the and
volume that holidays for a day can had be seen an as influence a draw from on the Poisson (S). distribution. Together If these we then three compare effects the observed make value with then the new probability forecasts of that can value be actually made.
occurring the number in the Poisson of calls. distribution, If the call we can centre identify the missing the next values. forecast. The extension of
After we is made closed sure on the a data certain were reliable Monday and (e.g. there was the no influence standard of holidays, model we could incorporated continue our forecasting Combining procedure. all the The above, forecasting we model were had
The because call centre of easter), firm also suspected how will that this holidays affect had an an influence extra on seasonality the number of calls. effect If the ( W call ). centre for is closed finally on a certain able to Monday start (e.g. forecasting. because of
to be able to deal with two seasonality patterns, and therefore an extension of the standard Holt-Winters model was developed. The Holt-Winters model This is
Easter), the calls how will in this the affect remainder the calls in the of remainder the of the simplicity, week? To test I the will implied only hypothesis, introduce we constructed the the resulted following in linear good regression forecasts, model:
an iterative model. When there is new data, the model parameters are updated for the next forecast. The standard Holt-Winters model consists which of
After we made week? sure To the test data the were implied reliable hypothesis,
and there was no forecasting influence of holidays, formula we and could one continue of the our forecasting were significantly procedure. The better forecasting than model the had
estimates for the level (L) of the forecast, the trend (T), and one seasonality effect (S). Together these three effects make the next forecast. The extension of
to be able to we deal constructed with two seasonality the following patterns, linear and therefore updating an extension formulas of the of standard the Holt-Winters model forecasts was developed. generated The by Holt-Winters the former model is
the standard model incorporated an extra seasonality effect (W). For simplicity, I will only introduce the forecasting formula and one of the updating
an iterative regression model. When model: there is new data, the model parameters model with are double updated seasonality. for the next The forecast. method. The standard figure Holt-Winters 1 shows one model forecast consists of
formulas of the Holt-Winters model with double seasonality.
forecasting
The forecasting
formula
formula
is:
is:
estimates for for some call volume. Here you can see

A M B o P L A Y S P A i N t B A L L
K O a L a
it is common practice of authors to tell first how they were approached by the editorial staff of Nekst to write
an article. usually i skip this part but this time, i think it is worth mentioning that the editors of Nekst were
unbothered by my reply stating that i was not even going to be present the entire weekend. “Just ask others
what happened,” was their very profound solution.
Name:
Ramon van Schaik
Age:
23
Begin studies:
2004
for those of you that have never heard of the
KOaLa 1 , this activity is meant for former active
members to see each other once more and to
relive old days by drinking and playing silly
games, just like they did when they were students.
The activity is organised by a special committee
of asset | econometrics. as already mentioned,
I was not present the first part of the weekend
and quite frankly, I think we can all guess what
happened. everybody had a drink or two and a
lack of resistance to booze made some rediscover
the effects of alcohol.
On the second day of the weekend, I arrived at
the scene. after a brief moment of saying hello,
the group was split in half and, lo and behold,
the newly formed red team became my enemy
in a game of paintball. This was certainly an
interesting way of making friends. Bullets flew
and people got hurt on various occasions. The
pain caused by the impact of the bullets kept
people from pretending to be rambo. Because
all this killing and dying got old after three hours,
we returned to the campsite where a magician
awaited us. He was able to fool everyone – except
for me of course, because I am too smart – after
which it was time for dinner.
F o r m e r a c t i v e m e m b e r s o f A s s e t | E c o n o m e t r i c s
Dinner was served off a barbecue, and I feel
obliged to tell something about this as well.
The meat was meaty, the sauce saucy, and some
were bragging once more with pride about their
excellence in barbecuing. Not much later, it was
time to visit a town nearby. at this point, we
broke with a tradition. Usually the group would
go to a very empty bar in a very small town with
very few inhabitants. This time, however, thanks
to the cab driver, we decided to upgrade the
activity to a slightly less empty bar in a slightly
bigger town with slightly more inhabitants. This
worked out pretty well as the party lasted until
3:00 and we were able to integrate with the locals
perfectly. Upon return at the campsite, we had
another drink or two and most of us decided to
go to sleep. and that is all there was.
all in all, I would like to thank the committee for
their hard work and now that I got reminded
of what imbeciles I had been studying with,
I hope I never have to see most of them ever
again. Nonetheless, I expect that this feeling has
probably faded away in one and a half years, by
the time the next KOaLa takes place. |
1. Loosely translated by the author: Keeping Old associates Linked automatically.
32 Nekst 4 - June 2010
g A M E o F g o o S E
r U L e S
Nekst is proud to present you the first game of goose in the history of Asset | Econometrics. You can play this
game with your friends and at the same time remember the great activities that took place during the past
year by viewing the various photos.
You can play this game with as many friends as you like. all you
need is the board game on the midpage, a die, and pieces for
all players. every player starts with his or her piece at start and
the player who has thrown the highest number with a die may
begin. from then on, the game will be played clockwise. The
players roll a die in turn and have to advance their piece on
the board by the thrown number. When a player ends up on a
field with a photo on it, the player has to perform one of the
following actions:
4. ice Skating
You fell on the ice rink, and slid to field 6.
. Après Ski drink
You have received a filled tankard, wait a turn to drink the
beer.
9. Freshmen Activity
You have eaten too many tapas, wait a turn.
14. Members day
You have decided to stay at the efteling Hotel, wait two turns.
18. Après Ski drink
You have danced on the bar, advance two fields.
19. orientation & information day
You have found the job of your dreams, throw again.
23. Asset Beer cantus
at the cantus, you were asked to become an active member,
advance to the active Members Weekend on field 31.
2 . Actuary day of tilburg
You have to do some difficult calculations, remain here until
another player arrives to take over and trade places. alternative:
solve the problem by throwing six and advance six fields.
27. Freshmen Activity
You got shot during a game of paintball, wait a turn to recover.
31. Active Members Weekend
The Tall Men of asset | econometrics measured your length,
advance two fields if you are taller than 1.75 metres, otherwise
nothing happens. (Learn more about the Tall Men in the article
about the active Members Weekend on page 18.)
32. Active Members Weekend
You fell from the ropes, go two places backward.
3 . Logistics Symposium
You have found the shortest path to the finish, advance to field
40.
41. Active Members day
You have cycled extremely fast through the caves, throw again.
42. Active Members day
You got lost in the caves, return to start.
4 . Saint Nicholas drink
You have been playing with your presents, wait a turn.
0. introduction Activity
You have been introduced to the board of asset | econometrics,
your move has been doubled.
2. Football Symposium drink
You have won the beer race, throw again.
3. game Afternoon
You still have to eat your pizza, wait a turn.
4. carnaval Volleyball tournament
You had the best outfit, advance two fields.
8. Asset Beer cantus
You lost your voice by singing too many songs, wait a turn to
recover.
9. Active Members Weekend
You have been flipped over while asleep, go ten places
backward.
The first player to end up in the goose pasture wins, but you
have to land on this field exactly. for instance, when a player is
on field 62 and throws three, the player ends up on field 61. |
Nekst 4 - June 2010 33

Y N A M E i S i N g E , L i K E t h E
K o r E A N F i S h !
e x C H a N G e r e P O r T
A couple of years ago i was just like you. i was reading Nekst in the basement of building c or the library to
avoid studying for my final exams. While reading the exchange report of a fellow econometrician, i started
wondering what it would be like to live a couple of months in another country. currently i am that exchange
student writing a report for Nekst about my experiences as an exchange student in South-Korea.
Name:
Inge Pulles
Age:
23
Begin studies:
2005
It was two years ago when I first started
considering to study abroad. at that time I
was an active member of a european student
organisation called aeGee-Tilburg, and via
this association I made some trips to other
parts of europe. I loved meeting people
from different countries and being in an
international environment. I felt like I was
ready for the next step: spending a semester
in a foreign country. There were many amazing
destinations to choose from and after a lot
of research, I decided to just follow my gut
feeling, and I applied for Yonsei University in
Seoul. I cannot describe how happy I was when
I finally got the email that I was accepted to go
on exchange. This was the beginning of one of
the best experiences in my life.
South-Korea is located in between Japan and
China. Most of you have probably heard of
this country because of the situation between
North and South-Korea or because of its
success during the World Cup of 2002 when
South-Korea managed to end fourth, being
coached by our beloved Guus Hiddink. Seoul
(pronounced: Sol) is the capital of South-
Korea, which is located only fifty kilometres
from the border with North-Korea. I left the
Netherlands one week before the semester
started to explore the city, get rid of my jetlag
and get used to the food. My first week in Seoul
was one I will never forget. I met a lot of nice
people in the hostel I was staying at and spent
my days sightseeing and my nights partying.
The Koreans that worked in the hostel were
extremely friendly and helpful, which made me
feel at home quickly. The owner of the hostel
even threw a party for my birthday, including
a beautiful birthday cake! Since I did not have
high expectations for my birthday, I could not
be happier about how it turned out to be.
Before I knew, my time as a tourist was over
and it was time to move into my (brand-new)
dorm on campus. My roommate was a Koreanamerican
girl named anna and we get along
really well. I sometimes miss my own room
and privacy, but on the other hand it is nice to
always have someone to talk to and having a
roommate can be a lot of fun. Our dorm has all
facilities a student can ever wish for, including
a small supermarket, some restaurants, a
fitness room, a travel agency, etcetera. It is
very convenient to live on campus as it takes
only five minutes to go from my room to class.
Besides, it was very easy to meet new people
at the dorm since all of us were in the same
situation at the start of the semester. I met a
lot of nice people and had an agenda full of
plans. There were also a lot of student clubs
that I joined and I signed up to teach Dutch to
Korean students in a volunteering programme.
every friday I teach two Korean students about
our language and the Dutch culture. It is a lot
of fun to teach other people my language, and
they also teach me a lot about Korean culture
in return.
Study
after a week of getting to know my fellow
exchange students and arranging some
practical stuff, my first lectures started and it
was time to start my true student life. During
the first week, we could try different courses
before making the decision on which courses
I n g e w i t h h e r f r i e n d s
3 Nekst 4 - June 2010
T h e b e a u t i f u l n a t u r e o f S o u t h K o r e a
to take. I tried several courses and finally
chose Strategic Management and
Global Competition, Business Marketing,
Investment and risk Management, and
Introduction to Korean Philosophy.
These courses are graduate courses
and count as additional courses for my
master’s programme Qf/aS back home.
The level of these courses is a bit lower
than at Tilburg University, and without
a lot of studying I managed to be one
of the best students in class during
the midterm exams. Yonsei University
is a prestigious university and proud
to be the second best university in
Korea. The university has its own Yonsei
dances and Yonsei songs, and a lot of
people walk on campus wearing Yonsei
jackets. Besides, students seem very
motivated to learn a lot during their
study time and are proud to study at
this university. My courses are taught
by Korean professors who speak english
very well, because they spent several
years studying and teaching abroad. I
am glad with the courses I have chosen,
since the professors teach the courses
with a lot of enthusiasm. although the
subjects I take are not closely related to
econometrics, I feel like I learn a lot of
theories which I can use in my future
career and life. The professors try to get
a good relationship with their students
as well. One time, my professor took our
class to a Korean restaurant for some
food and beer for lunch. During this
lunch, I had an interesting conversation
with him about Korean marketing.
another time he took us hiking up
the mountain behind our campus and
served us a typical Korean lunch.
culture
I have been living here for three
months now, and I still love living in
South-Korea. The Korean people are
extremely friendly and always willing
to help. even though not all Koreans
speak english, they do their utmost to
help you. They make you feel like they
are happy that you live in their country
and they are always interested in your
stories. In particular when they hear that
you are from the Netherlands. Koreans
love the Netherlands thanks to Guus
Hiddink. although Seoul is a city with
over ten million inhabitants, I never had
to worry about my safety or wallet as
the country is extremely safe. Because
of the confucianistic values that are
deeply rooted in this society, people
respect each other a lot more than in
Western countries. for example, young
people always rise for elderly people in
the bus or subway, and people line up
at bus stops instead of fighting their
way in. Personally, I really feel at home
here because of the way Korean people
treat foreigners and each other.
Korean people love to eat and drink.
Most of my evenings begin with a nice
dinner together with friends at one
of the restaurants close to campus,
situated in a lively area full of bars,
restaurants, and neon signs. One of
my favourite Korean types of food is
Korean barbecue, in which you cook
your own food in the middle of the
table. You do not eat your meat by
using a fork and knife, but by wrapping
the meat into a leaf of lettuce which
you eat with your hands. In particular
the unlimited Korean Barbecue
restaurants are extremely popular
amongst exchange students, since you
can eat as much meat, seafood, and
vegetables as you like for at most six
euros! after dinner it is time for some
drinking games, a couple of drinks in a
bar, karaoke at a noraebang, or a games
café. Koreans love karaoke. The city
is packed with small karaoke rooms,
called noraebangs, which have room
for two to ten people. These rooms have
one or more flat-screen televisions, a
microphone, musical instruments, and
a book full of songs to choose from.
Some noraebangs even offer free
unlimited ice cream. Noraebangs are
a great way of having fun with friends
without having strangers watching you.
Koreans take karaoke very seriously and
try to sing with all their heart.
Of course, the life of an exchange
student is way more than studying
and partying. as an exchange student,
Nekst 4 - June 2010 37

Did you know…
… 1 in 7 children is too thick.
… 1 in 5 children do not play outside.
… In Dutch cities a child currently has 4m 2 area to play,
while a car has 10m 2 .
Support the Johan Cruyff Foundation
Giro 14.14
De Cruyff Foundation supports and creates projects that encourage sports
and games, always for the long term and in close cooperation with relevant
parties and the youth themselves. The Cruyff Foundation does that by
realizing Cruyff Courts (public playgrounds so that children regain their
playgrounds), by supporting sport projects for children with a disability and
by organizing unique sports events.
For more information:
www.cruyff-foundation.org
you try to travel as much as possible
and experience things you would
otherwise have never experienced. Last
month, I went to Shanghai with two
friends from australia and america.
We went to the World expo, where
we visited pavilions of countries from
all over the world. These pavilions are
architectural masterpieces filled with
art, gadgets, and objects representing
a certain country. The World expo is
really impressive, and it felt like a world
journey in one day. a couple of weeks
ago, around Queen’s Day, the Prime
Minister of the Netherlands, Jan Peter
Balkenende, visited South-Korea. He
gave a lecture at our university and there
was a Queen’s Day reception organised
by the Dutch embassy in South-Korea.
I attended both events with a couple
of other Dutch exchange students. We
enjoyed a very humorous speech of
the Prime Minister, some real Dutch
food, and even spotted some famous
people like Pierre van Hooijdonk and
W h a t a n i c e o u t f i t !
Jean-Marie Pfaff, who were present to
lobby for the World Cup 2018 in the
Netherlands and Belgium.
Nature
Besides that, I have done a lot of
sightseeing inside and outside Seoul.
Korea is known for its beautiful nature
and hiking in the mountains is one
of the favourite activities of Koreans
during the weekends. Hiking is the
perfect way to escape from the busy
city life, and get some fresh air. Koreans
take hiking seriously and dress up like
they are about to climb the Mount
everest. for a ´walking LeDdie´ 1 like
me, this is a great way to spend the
weekends. I also spent a weekend in a
Buddhist temple to experience what
life is like as a monk, and to learn more
about Buddhism. During this weekend,
a monk taught us a lot about Buddhism
and Buddhist rituals such as how to
pray and how to do the 108 bows (at
4:00 in the morning!). There was also
time for meditation and reflection on
your life. all in all, it was a weekend I
will never forget.
Currently I am only halfway my exchange
experience, since I am planning to
spend my summer travelling around
asia. So far, my exchange story is one
with positive aspects only. Of course
you miss your family and friends as well
as your life in Tilburg a bit, but the new
things that you get from living abroad
definitely make up for this. I made a lot
of friends from all over the world and
experienced things I would have never
experienced at home. My friends here
are a mixture of Koreans and students
from other countries, and I learned a lot
from all of them. a funny story about
Korean people is that they all tend to
remember me and my name, since my
name means ´carp´ in Korean. So every
time I introduce myself and notice that
the other person is struggling with
pronouncing my name, I add: “Inge, you
know, like the Korean fish?” Therefore,
a lot of Koreans remember my name
whereas I still have difficulties with
remembering all the names of the
people I meet. Besides, Korean names all
seem quite similar to me. furthermore,
the meaning of my name is a good way
of breaking the ice when meeting new
people too.
I think being on exchange is a nice
way to get to know another country
and learn more about the world and
yourself. I am glad that I chose to go
to South-Korea, since it is not a typical
holiday destination and I would have
probably never thought about visiting
this country otherwise. for all you guys
reading this report and wondering if an
exchange would be something for you:
just go for it! I promise you that you will
never regret it. |
1. former member of the organising committee
of the National econometricians Day 2008, who
completed the Nijmeegse Vierdaagse in 2009.
Nekst 4 - June 2010 39

tAYiNg FAithFuL to Your currENt
PArtNEr or LooKiNg For A NEW dAtE?
e C O N O M I C B U S I N e S S W e e K S T I L B U r G
returning from a two-week holiday after the final round of exams, i was eager to start in the Economic
Business weeks tilburg (EBt). After studying two semesters for the master in Quantitative Finance and
Actuarial Sciences at tilburg university, company cases and informal activities promised to offer some
change in my daily life.
Name:
Lars Knuth
Age:
23
Begin studies:
2009
My schedule for the first week stated:
opening with the comedian Bob MacLaren
on Monday, assessment centre training one
day later, and a case by De Lage Landen on
friday. after the weekend, I subscribed for
the presentation by ING, got accepted for
the workshop by ecorys, and completed my
list of activities with an informal activity
provided by Syngenta.
Bob MacLaren, a comedian from New
Zealand, gave a thirty-minute impression
of his show, which was not only funny, but
also well-connected to the activities during
the eBT. The subsequent drink took place in
a very nice atmosphere. Together with the
assessment centre training the following
day, this formed a very good start of the eBT
2010. The stadium of the first league football
team in Tilburg, Willem II, was the location for
the assessments. The participants of the day
were welcomed in a great conference centre
with a cup of coffee or tea. after that, a well
L u n c h a t D a n t e b u i l d i n g
diversified programme started, for which
the participants were divided into eight
groups. The three rounds of assessments
first brought me to a group assessment, in
which we dealt with a social dilemma game.
If all three teams worked together, everyone
would be better off. Who will get most of the
limited resources, when the interest of your
own group contradicts with the collective
interest? The next two rounds brought me
into an interview and a role-play situation,
in which a volunteer of our group acted as
a boss who had to tell a professional actor
in the role of an employee that he was not
doing his work sufficiently. Would the guy
have the personality to handle the stress
of the situation? In this case, very good
communication and management skills are
needed and trained.
Similar to the assessment centre day, the case
day lasted a full day. The case provided by De
Lage Landen brought us into the position of
40 Nekst 4 - June 2010
D i n n e r a t t h e e n d o f t h e d a y
company strategists within De Lage
Landen. What decisions should be
made in times of limited funding, but
with ample business opportunities?
Partners turned out to be of great
importance as the provider of leasing,
business, and consumer finance
solutions. On the one hand, you
have the opportunity to stay in old
partnerships with partners struggling
with the financial crisis. On the other
hand, you have the opportunity
to enter new partnerships, since
the financial crisis created unique
opportunities as a major competitor
went bankrupt. This left big former
clients without a partner that, for
example, offered leasing solutions.
Or is it a better idea to enter several
small partnerships instead of one
giant project, because risk can be
reduced through diversification in
this way? The capital, however, is
provided by the mother company
rabobank, which is funding projects
only if there is substantial return
potential. The day ended with a
pub quiz and a luxurious dinner
consisting of five courses, wine, and
live piano music. Unfortunately, our
company representatives had to
leave before the quiz. Before that,
they gave us the exclusive tip that
we could apply for the International
Management Traineeship, for
which two spots were available for
suitable candidates during the early
assessment weekend.
In my case, the following week
started with a presentation by ING.
Some employees introduced us to
the company, talked about personal
experiences, and informed us about
career opportunities. after the last
presentations and workshops had
been held, an informal drink took
place. During this drink, snacks like
tomatoes filled with shrimps were
served and a variety of drinks was
available. This gave us the perfect
opportunity to get into touch with
company representatives in an
informal way. This was the time to get
to know what a typical day at work
looks like, whether it is hard to get a
job, and whether the working hours
are in line with ones future goals. I
used this opportunity on Tuesday in
particular after my workshop with
ecorys.
To be honest, before I informed
myself about ecorys to write a good
motivation letter for the eBT, I did not
know that this company existed. Now
I am glad, however, that I took the
chance to get to know the company,
since it made a very professional
impression and offers great projects
especially for students in economics.
The case brought us into a situation
in which we had to advise several
parties on the question whether
Schiphol should satisfy the increasing
demand for flights by moving to
an artificial island in the North Sea
or whether they should stay at the
current place with limited growth
potential.
My personal highlight was at the
same time my last event during the
eBT: the golf clinic with Syngenta.
five participating companies
selected ten applicants each, with
whom they were going to spend
the day. My group was instructed
by a professional US golf coach,
who taught us the basic techniques
of golf. Besides, a competition was
on its way, in which everyone could
show his or her recently acquired
skills. During the entire day, we
were given the opportunity to talk
to the two company representatives
of Syngenta. Sunny and warm
weather combined with great fellow
participants, committed and nice
company representatives, and a very
interesting company resulted in a
great day. |
Nekst 4 - June 2010 41

h A r i N g K N o W L E d g E
B U S I N e S S I N T e r V I e W T O W e r S W a T S O N
on a beautiful morning in May we arrived at the office of towers Watson in Eindhoven. We were
welcomed by Marnix ceelaert, consultant at towers Watson. We asked him about his work and
his daily life at the office.
Name:
Marnix Ceelaert
Age:
32
Position:
Consultant
M arnix (32) currently spends for t y hours
a week at the office of Towers Watson.
Since a few months, however, he and
his girlfriend Silvia became the happy
parents of a girl named amber. This
means that from 1 June onwards M arnix
will star t work ing one day per week less.
Besides his family and his job, M arnix
also spends time on his hobbies. He likes
spor ts ver y much, especially playing
tennis. He also likes going on holiday
with Silvia. M arnix: “ The past years, we
combined our holidays with the Olympic
G ames. We visited the Olympics in
athens, the Winter G ames in Turin, and
the Olympics in Pek ing. The atmosphere
was absolutely great!”
the road to towers Watson
Since primar y school M arnix always
liked numbers and calculations. “In
secondar y school I liked the combination
of mathematics and economics a lot, so
I star ted my studies in econometrics at
Tilburg University. ” During his studies,
M arnix worked as a student assistant.
He liked explaining maths to other
people and sharing his k nowledge with
younger students. In his work he again
finds himself sharing k nowledge when
he explains how to deal with a problem
to his younger colleagues or when he
explains the solutions found by his team
to clients.
During his studies, M arnix was an ac tive
member of asset | econometrics ( TeV at
that time). a few years later, he became
secretar y of the board in the academic
year 1998-1999. He got to k now a lot of
companies during the ac tivities of the
association, and the work each company
does: “I noticed I liked work ing with
clients and advising them, so it was an
obvious choice to star t work ing at a
consultanc y company. ”
One of the companies Marnix got to k now
via our association was Towers Watson. He
saw that this was a ver y young and informal
organisation: “I think that I am ver y close
to the average age already, being 32 years
old!” he says. These two characteristics,
combined with the contents of the work
at Towers Watson, made Marnix decide
to star t his internship there. He liked the
company ver y much, so he stayed as a
junior consultant.
Projec t Work
each project at Towers Watson is done
by three people: a junior consultant, a
consultant, and a senior consultant. as a
junior consultant, you work on detailed
calculations and have contact with a
client mostly by telephone and email. The
consultant guides the junior consultant
when he needs help and checks the
calculations he or she made. The senior
consultant is the one who is responsible for
the project in the end. While growing in the
company, you get more responsibility and
more contact with the clients. “ This way of
work ing is strongly related to the quality
standards we want to meet,” Marnix tells
us. “ We make use of a do – check – review
procedure: one person executes the work,
one person checks what the executer
has done, and a third person does not
look at the details anymore, but judges
whether this truly solves the client ’s
problem.” Currently, Marnix is work ing as a
consultant, and therefore checks the work
of the junior consultant. “ What I like most
of this structure, is that the teams consist
of different people for each client, which
means that you work with many different
42 Nekst 4 - June 2010
people. a big advantage of this is
that junior consultants learn from
various people, and consultants
share their k nowledge with several
junior consultants.”
type of projec ts
Marnix works on projects closely
related to pensions. He has over
twenty clients. His clients are
enterprises and pension funds.
“an enterprise pays the pensions
of its employees and the pension
fund executes these pension
arrangements,” he explains.
as a consultant at Towers Watson
you do not work at the client ’s
office. You do visit the client when
you have to make sure that Towers
Watson will get the order, and
after wards to discuss the results
you have found. Never theless, when
you work on the project, you stay at
the office of Towers Watson. “all the
k nowledge is present at the office,
just as the models are.” Marnix
tells us. “especially when you are a
junior consultant, it is good to have
people around who can help you. In
this way, you can learn from each
other, and the k nowledge within
the company grows.”
towers Watson
In Januar y, Watson Wyatt and
Towers Perrin merged to become
Towers Watson. This means that
two companies have to become
one. To accomplish this, there
are several work groups in which
former employees of Watson Wyatt
as well as former employees of
Towers Perrin take place. Marnix
also takes place in one of these
groups. “ The goal of such groups
is to create one view on a cer tain
topic within the whole company,”
Marnix explains. “Before, Watson
Wyatt and Towers Perrin might have
had different opinions on several
topics, but now we need one view
for the whole company. Since two
k now more than one, this can only
improve our views. as there is one
representative from ever y office in
this group, this is also a good way
of sharing k nowledge.”
Towers Watson consists of three
sections: retirement Solutions, risk
& financial Ser vices, and Talent &
rewards. Marnix works in retirement
Solutions, where pensions are ver y
impor tant. at the risk & financial
Ser vices depar tment, there is a focus
on investments and insurances.
The third par t, Talent & rewards,
works on the broader pack age of
conditions of employment, which
contains more than pensions.
“ Towers Watson distinguishes itself
from other companies in two ways.
first of all, we want to introduce
new ideas, solutions, and products,”
Marnix explains. “fur thermore, the
client is the key in ever y project.
Our relationship with the client
is ver y impor tant.” Therefore, you
do not only need to be good at
calculations, you should also have
the right social sk ills and be able
to present your results and write a
repor t.
Spare time within towers Watson
There are several activities for the
employees within Towers Watson.
ever y two years the employees at
the office in eindhoven go away
“All the knowledge is
present at the of fice.”
for a weekend and enjoy a lot of
activities. They also go out for dinner,
go car ting, or do other fun activities
during the year. Besides that, there
are also activities organised for the
whole company. foremost, there is
an annual par ty, but that is not all.
“Something which was ver y typical
for Watson Wyatt was a music quiz.
almost two-thirds of the employees
par ticipated in this quiz. It was
organised by a few colleagues, who
chose a theme. each team had to
come up with a team name and had
to come to the quiz all dressed up.”
the future
In the future, Marnix would like to
stay at Towers Watson. “I feel ver y
comfor table at this company and
would like to grow fur ther within
the organisation. I would like to
have more contact with clients in
the future. My close future is here
at Towers Watson, because they still
offer me enough challenges and
things to learn.” |
Tex t by : Marleen Balver t
Nekst 4 - June 2010 43

towerswatson.nl
Towers Watson.
Een helder perspectief
voor concrete oplossingen.
Towers Perrin en Watson Wyatt zijn nu samen Towers Watson. Een wereldwijde
onderneming met een eenduidige focus op klanten en hun succes.
U kunt vertrouwen op 14.000 ervaren professionals die over zowel lokale als
internationale expertise beschikken. Onze aanpak is gebaseerd op samenwerking en
betrouwbare analyses. Wij bieden een helder perspectief dat uw specifieke situatie
koppelt aan het grotere geheel. Zo leiden wij u naar betere bedrijfsresultaten.
Towers Watson. Duidelijk resultaat.
Benefits | Risk and Financial Services | Talent and Rewards
©2010 Towers Watson. Alle rechten voorbehouden.
i N t r o d u c t i o N F i N A N c E i N P r A c t i c E
e x C U r S I O N O r T e C f I N a N C e
on Wednesday 19 March, three employees of ortec Finance came to tilburg university to tell the freshmen something
about Asset Liability Management. At first, the idea was to visit the office in rotterdam, but since there were a lot of
subscriptions, we had to change plans. it is yet unknown whether the large amount of subscriptions was caused by
the bonus point on your exam or by the subject. i can assure you that the latter option holds for me!
after entering the room ten minutes late
(someone nicked steel wires from the train
tracks, so I had some delay), the afternoon
began. I was just in time to hear that two of the
guest speakers had studied econometrics, so I
reckoned that this case might be something I
could be doing for a living in a few years.
The first hour, our guest speakers introduced
some new terms such as ‘duration’ and ‘hedging’,
which we had to understand before we could
continue with the software provided by Ortec
finance. During this explanation, the ‘crew’ of
Ortec actively interacted with the students, and
they even rewarded people who gave the right
answers with a small prize!
after a short break, we were ready to get
started with our assignment. Using the
software provided by Ortec, we had to advise
a pension fund regarding their investments.
The students were divided into groups of six
to eight persons, each with its own laptop. We
received an assignment about a pension fund
with a bad starting position. Our advice should
help them reach their objectives as well as give
them some space for the final decision to be
made by the company itself. Most of us could
handle the software quite quickly, whereas
it usually takes other people a few years of
I n t r o d u c t i o n o f t h e c a s e
training before they understand it, as an Ortec
employee told us.
Then the most exciting moment of the
afternoon came: we were put to the test. all
groups were thinking and discussing lively over
which portfolio to choose and how to obtain
the best solution to the problem. During the
case, candy bars were put on the teacher’s desk
to keep our energy levels sufficiently high.
What most groups did not realise, however, was
that they had to prepare a speech to inform the
board of the pension fund about their results.
Therefore, a lot of groups ran out of time. after
having heard ten short pitches of about a
minute, the board chose three of the speakers
to present their plans. It was astonishing to see
that everybody nearly had the same answer, but
they presented their answers in very different
ways.
In the end, you might say that all we did that
afternoon was putting numbers into a computer.
It may be true, but when you think about the
numbers we put in and the definitions we
learned during the course Introduction finance,
you will notice that those two are closely
related. The overall conclusion: the excursion,
which was not really an excursion, was a nice
activity to attend. |
Name:
Joris Blonk
Nekst 4 - June 2010 4
Age:
17
Begin studies:
2009

hE PAiN ANd SAcriFicES For oNE
JoiNt goAL MAKE roWiNg BEAutiFuL
THe PaSSION Of GIJS IJSeBaerT, rUBeN MaK, aND STaN VaN WOrKUM
the freshman light-weight team of student association t.S.r. Vidar consists of eight rowers.
three of them are students in Econometrics. For gijs, ruben, and Stan, this year consisted
almost entirely of rowing and studying. they train seven times a week and row in a competition
once every two weeks.
Name:
Gijs IJsebaert
Name:
Ruben Mak
Name:
Stan van Workum
for ruben, race rowing was a conscious
choice. In the first year that he joined
Vidar, he did not want to row in the
league. race rowers have to make several
sacrifices such as going to bed before
midnight and not being allowed to drink
alcohol. He thought drinking beer was
too beautiful and he did also not want to
miss any par ties because of going to bed
early. Never theless, as the pre-trainings
became increasingly intensive, he star ted
to like the team coherence and the idea of
giving ever ything to achieve something.
Unfor tunately, his decision to focus on
rowing came a little too late: he just did
not make it through the selection. This
year, he was determined to join the team,
and eventually got through the selections.
Stan was convinced of going all the way
for the race team from the moment he
joined Vidar. Gijs really liked rowing from
the beginning, although he had not made
the decision to join the team until the last
moment. None of them has ever regretted
his decision for a single moment.
training sessions and matches
The year star ted with two training sessions
a week. This quickly became four times
a week, and increased fur ther over time.
from November on, they train seven times
a week. These training sessions sometimes
consisted of five ver y intensive minutes,
whereas other sessions consisted of
two times three quar ters, which is ver y
tough as well and a good way of training
your endurance and mental strength.
Nowadays, they still have these two
types of training. They do not only train
in a boat on the water, but also indoors
on the ergometer (an indoor rower). The
selection for the race team in the winter
was based on their techniques in the boat
and (mostly) on their per formances on
ergometers. When all rowers had officially
been selected to be par t of the freshman
light-weight team, they star ted to train for
the matches. Until December, they were
building up endurance and power. The first
championship they par ticipated in was
the Dutch indoor rowing championship
on ergometers. This was also the first
championship they won.
“It is not just rowing:
it is a way of life.”
During spring, they improved their
technique and began with the league. all
the matches in this league are against
other freshman light-weight teams from
other student associations. The matches
take place once ever y two weeks during
the weekends. During a match weekend,
they par ticipate in matches for the league
on Saturdays. On Sundays, it is all or
nothing in order to win the ´blik´, the
trophy for that day. Winning a ´blik´ is
something special, because the status of a
team changes from beginner to newcomer
as soon as a team receives its first ´blik´.
So far, they per formed quite well in the
competition. Never theless, they are not
4 Nekst 4 - June 2010
ranked first or second, but four th.
This was mainly caused by some
unlucky events. for example, ruben
caught a crab on the 250 metres
lane once. This means that an oar
blade gets stuck in the water and
the water pushes the blade away.
In that case, the rower loses his oar
as it gets behind the back of the
rower. The entire team had to stop
rowing in order to get the oar in the
right position. In par ticular on the
250 metres, this caused too much
delay to still set a high-ranked
result. Unfor tunately, there were
some more of these events, such as
crashing into a buoy and another
boat. Never theless, the team
per forms quite stable lately, ending
in the top three ever y match.
Sacrifices to be par t of the team
Being this devoted to rowing, the
men of the freshman light-weight
team have to make some sacrifices.
They have to keep track of their
weight, because people in the boat
are not allowed to weigh more than
70 kilos on average and no more
than 72.5 kilos per person. for this
purpose they have to keep track of
their food pattern. They have to eat
enough carbohydrates and not too
much salt or fat. additionally, they
have to go to bed before midnight
and are not allowed to drink
alcohol. Moreover, training seven
times a week takes a considerable
amount of time. Gijs estimates this
to be thir ty hours a week, which
cannot be spent on their studies.
“It is not just rowing: it is a way of
life.” Never theless, it is impor tant
to obtain a diploma, but rowing
remains something unique. Besides,
races have no resit.
Of course, the boat can get damaged
during a match. To pay for repairing,
transpor t, and other costs, the race
rowers have to work some hours.
When we star ted the inter view, Gijs
P a s s i n g t h e f i n i s h l i n e
arrived later than the others. This
was because he had to give a clinic
to some children from secondar y
school, who trained for a school
rowing competition. Other hours
can be made by giving classes,
helping during open days, or ser ving
at special occasions. Moreover, T.S.r.
Vidar is the only student association
in which the boats are repaired by
its own members. Other associations
have someone on duty to do this.
the beauty of rowing
In their opinion, rowing would
not be this beautiful, if it did not
take such sacrifices. according to
the three men, the beauty of race
rowing lies in the discipline, the pain
during the match, and the feeling
when passing the finish line. During
a match, ever yone is extremely
tensed and they have to get the
most out of their selves. according
to Gijs, you are terrified of yourself
because you cause yourself so much
pain during a match. as you dare to
do yourself so much pain, however,
winning is the most beautiful thing
in the world.
They all agree that pushing yourself
to the limit as well as the sacrifices
they make for one purpose make
race rowing a beautiful spor t. It is
not the achievement in itself, but
the effor ts it takes to succeed, which
gives the ultimate satisfaction.
Due to the hard work to prepare for
the matches, it is ver y disappointing
if you do not finish first. In par ticular,
if it happens because of unlucky
events over which you have no
control. In this way, however, they
learn to deal with rough misfor tunes.
race rowing also provided these
men with some other skills. first
of all, they developed social skills
by spending much time together.
Secondly, they obtained much
perseverance and they learned how
to focus completely on one goal. The
collective goal is most impor tant,
which currently is to row as good
as possible and to become third
in the final ranking. really giving
ever ything to achieve something
is quite unique. It is what makes
rowing such a valuable experience.
Nekst asked the rowers whether
they would recommend other
people to take par t in a race rowing
team. according to them, it is one’s
own choice as it is something you
should find out for yourself. Some
will not like it, and some will not be
able to. If you are willing to make
the effor t, however, the return will
be immeasurable. |
Tex t by : Dimphy Hermans
Nekst 4 - June 2010 47

N t E L L i g E N t S E N S o r N E t W o r K S
B E c o M E A F F o r d A B L E
S C I e N T I f I C a r T I C L e T N O
When you travel from the hague to Amsterdam, you will pass almost fifty detection loops in the road and,
on top of that, you will be registered by a lot of cameras. the data collected by these sensor networks can
be very useful. therefore, you will pass a multiple of the current number of sensors while making the same
ride in ten years.
Name:
Karin van Kranenburg
Name:
Erik Fledderus
Name:
Thomas Bachet
Sensor networks have developed rapidly into an
established phenomenon in our society through
the past years. Sensor networks contribute to
improvements in several fields these days: from
health care to agriculture and horticulture, and
from traffic management to guarding national
security. The costs of sensor networks are
expected to decrease in the upcoming years,
while the revenues are expected to increase.
This will result in a more frequent application
of sensor networks. This prognosis is based on
several political, social, economic, and technical
developments. In this article, a number of
influential technological trends will be discussed.
These technological trends have an influence on
sensor networks and its costs: miniaturisation,
power harvesting, and growing intelligence. In
the social field, we will see that ‘user generated
content’ also plays a role in sensor networks. all
of these developments will eventually lead to
the establishment of ‘smart dust’.
Miniaturisation
By applying innovative techniques, we succeed in
making equipment smaller. Think of the creation
of the mainframe to the development of a PDa.
already in 1965 Gordon Moore predicted that the
number of transistors on a computer chip would
double each year because of technological
improvements. also in the field of photography,
we see that cameras become smaller and CCDs
get a higher resolution. In the world of sensor
networks, miniaturisation plays an important
role. The sizes of several parts of a sensor
network, like the sensor itself, the batteries, the
processors, and the (wireless) communication
modules, decrease drastically. at the same time,
we see that accomplishments increase, while the
price remains the same or even decreases. Next
to that, miniaturisation results in operational
advantages, like an easier implementation.
Power harvesting
Power harvesting is a collection of techniques
by which energy is withdrawn from its direct
environment. The most well-known form of
power harvesting is the solar cell, in which light
is being transformed into energy with the help
of photovoltaic cells. Next to transforming light
into energy, there are many forms of power
harvesting, like the transformation of radio waves,
vibrations, differences in temperature, and wind
into energy. Sensor networks form an interesting
field to apply these techniques in. By making use
of power harvesting techniques, sensor networks
can meet their own energy demands.
increasing intelligence
Through the years, sensor networks evolved from
a simple network of measuring instruments into
an ‘intelligent’ network that, next to carrying out
measurements, interprets these measurements
and executes actions. for example, increased
intelligence of sensor networks can be observed
in security. a simple burglar alarm detects
whether a person is penetrating into a building
and subsequently triggers an alarm. all the
buildings at a business site have their own
burglar alarm. To secure the site as a whole, a
security officer regularly walks around at the site.
In addition, cameras are used which are guarded
by a security officer from a distance. The security
officer recognises suspicious patterns he sees on
the tapes and knows when he has to be alert. In
the future, this ‘pattern recognition’ will be taken
over by intelligent sensor networks. These kinds
of systems can enlarge the safety and reduce
labour costs. With the increasing intelligence, it
will also be possible to let the sensor networks
execute actions themselves. an example is
the device that proportionates the amount of
cars entering the highway at an approach. The
induction loops in the highway measure the
speed of each passing vehicle. By adding a piece
of ‘intelligence’, a general view of traffic intensity
before and after the approach can be obtained.
Thereafter, the system determines the desired
interval for the vehicles to enter the highway.
The device is put into operation without the
need of human interaction as soon as a (serious)
48 Nekst 4 - June 2010
traffic jam occurs. Intelligence in sensor
networks will create new possibilities.
Next to that, more and more human tasks
can be taken over, which means that costs
can be reduced significantly. Nonetheless,
a lot of money still needs to be invested in
order to develop this intelligence.
user generated Sensor data
Traditionally, professional organisations
focussed on generating content and the
user was only a buyer. Nowadays, the
situation is slowly changing into a model
in which the user generates the content.
D a t a f r o m p a c h u b e . c o m
This trend, the so-called development of
‘User Generated Content’, can be mainly
found in the media. for example, the
photos of the bomb attacks in London
in 2005 could be found sooner via flickr
than via the traditional media. also in
the field of sensor networks, the first
appearances of user generated content
start to pop up. On the website pachube.
com users get the opportunity to share
data collected with their own sensors, like
weather stations and energy meters. at
the moment, this development is scarcely
out of the egg, but it is not unimaginable
that user generated content is going to
play a major role in intelligent sensor
networks. In that case, it will be possible
to create a widely used sensor network
at low costs, provided that it is made
attractive and easy to participate in such
a network.
Smart dust
In the trends described above we have
seen that the parts in a sensor network
will become small, meet their own energy
demand, communicate wireless, and
get more intelligent. eventually, sensor
modules will be developed that can
organise themselves into an intelligent
sensor network and will become so small
and cheap that they can be scattered
as ‘smart dust’. In this way, it becomes
incredibly simple to implement an
intelligent sensor network. Next to the
possibilities that arise from this, it is also
important to take the disadvantages
into account. a loss of privacy is one of
them. Solutions have to be found for the
protection of one’s privacy.
In the research field, the first samples of
smart dust have already been created,
and cost only 25 cents per sensor module.
Not only the cost price of the sensor
modules is being optimised by means
of smart dust, the installation costs will
be very low as well. as more and more
sensor modules will be scattered, it is no
problem if a part of the modules starts
to malfunction: the sensor network will
reorganise itself and its performance will
remain the same. This means that even
the maintenance costs will decrease
dramatically. In the end, the investment
in the intelligence of the sensor network
will be the largest cost factor.
iJkdijk
The IJkdijk is a recent example in which
a sensor network is applied. This is a trial
dike developed by a consortium of Dutch
governmental and research institutions
and companies, in which a sensor
network has been integrated. The most
important function of the sensor network
is measuring the condition of the dike.
With the measured data, the status within
the dike can be monitored continuously,
and one can intervene in an early stage
in case of a (threatening) failure. The
management of the dike becomes more
effective because of this sensor network.
Catastrophes due to dike failures, like
in Wilnis in 2003 where the dike had
become too dry or in Stein in 2004 where
the dike was full of water because of a
broken water pipe, can be prevented by
such a sensor network.
M o d e l o f t h e I J k d i j k
Possibilities for the Netherlands
Based on the above, we can draw several
conclusions:
• Sensor networks become affordable: in
some areas we see an actual decrease in
the costs of sensor networks: the parts
become cheaper and the installation
and exploitation simpler. In other areas
we see a development comparable to
computers: the price remains the same,
but the possibilities increase.
• The application possibilities increase:
because of several technological
developments, in particular
miniaturisation and power harvesting,
sensor networks can be applied much
easier. In the future, they can even be
scattered as ‘smart dust’. Because of
increasing intelligence, the additional
value of sensor networks becomes large
and human tasks can be replaced.
• Intelligent sensor networks become
accessible for application within a large
number of sectors: intelligent sensor
networks are being used in many fields,
from horticulture and health care to
traffic management and security.
altogether, the development of intelligent
sensor networks has begun: the range of
applications leads to use at a large scale,
which consequently results in a positive
influence on the affordability and
stimulates the development of innovative
techniques. |
Note: this report has been published before in TM-05.
Nekst 4 - June 2010 49

h o o t i N g P o o L
f O O T B a L L C O L U M N
the usual way to make it through the upcoming Football World cup is organising a pool: fill out the results of
the matches in a large sheet, and the person who, according to a usually incomprehensible algorithm, gave
the best prediction wins the stake. there are roughly two ways to participate in such a pool: an economic, in
which one tries to maximise profit, and an epicurean, in which one tries to maximise fun.
Name:
Hans van Maanen
Profession:
Freelance Scientific
Journalist
Of course, the first strategy is the most
straightfor ward for football specialists.
Based on former championships, precise
calculations of relative strengths, and a
huge amount of self-confidence, football
specialists believe they can fill out the
pool in such a way that they win the big
money.
for econometricians, the best strategy is: no
participation. Indeed, this was the advice
of Michel van de Velden, econometrician
from rotterdam, at the football Symposium
organised by asset | econometrics. The
scores are too unpredictable to allow for
a winning strategy. This is apparent in the
results of so-called football specialists in
pools: a random strategy works equally
well. even in this case, there is no
difference between a football specialist
and a monkey.
However, the social pressure to participate
in a pool can be so high that even
econometricians cannot escape. In this case,
it is probably most rational to fill out 0-0
for every match, due to the small number
of goals in World Cup events. It might look
somewhat strange and unsociable, but if
you say you are an econometrician, then
you can probably count on some leniency.
rather, one should look at the problem
from a completely different point of
view, and choose for a strategy that does
not try to maximise financial profit, but
psychological profit. Odds immediately
become a lot better.
for example, take a look at the so-called
postpone strategy. This strategy tries
to let the chance of winning last as
long as possible. It will be clear that the
econometrician, predicting 0-0, has a bad
day as soon as the first goal has been
made. The postpone strategy tries to
postpone this moment, for example by
predicting 2-2 instead. Only if one of the
teams scores three times or the end of
the match approaches in an even-steven
of 0-0, expectations will falter. Someone
who expects few goals might choose a
result of 1-1, whereas someone who is
very optimistic about the number of goals
might pick 3-3.
If, in spite of the statistics, you still think
you have some knowledge about football,
you might want to choose a variation of
the postpone strategy in which you predict
the most probable maximal result instead
of making the most probable prediction. If
needed, you can even add one goal to the
expected results from football specialists.
a third possibility is the so-called counter
strategy. In a football pool, most Dutch
people let Holland win. again, social
pressure can be very high on this occasion.
Nevertheless, it is clear that in case Holland
looses, you will lose twice. The counter
strategy obviates this by predicting the
opposite of what one hopes, especially in
emotionally charged matches. Of course,
we hope that Holland will win all the
matches, but if the Dutch team loses, you
still have a chance to win the pool. This
strategy is less useful for people who do
not care one way or another.
In the end, nothing stops us from using all
psychological strategies simultaneously.
for example, use the postpone strategy for
meaningless matches, and use the counter
strategy for emotionally charged matches.
as long as we have fun. |
0 Nekst 4 - June 2010
t u E S d AY 1 J u N E A t 2 1 : 3 0 ,
c A F é Q W i B u S
a S S e T P U B Q U I Z
Before going to the Asset Pubquiz, i had had a meeting back in my home town. i had to hurry to be
on time as this meeting took longer than expected. Luckily, the dutch railways cooperated this time
and i entered the pub at half past nine sharp.
There were about ten people from asset
| econometrics who had subscribed for
this quiz. a lot of people from other asset
associations were present as well. anyway,
the first thing we checked when entering
the pub was the team arrangement. Nobody
knew who their fellow team members were
going to be, because every group consisted
of five people and therefore two groups from
asset | econometrics could be formed.
Meanwhile, it was half-time during the
football match Netherlands-Ghana of which
the first half was a real drama. Given that this
friendly match was definitely not going to be
as spectacular as the World Cup, we focused
H ow many square kilometres is Russia?
on preparing for the upcoming question
bomb by stimulating our brains with some
cold reproduced and fresh harvested barley.
Then, after thirty minutes or so, the quiz
started. We picked a spot in the front of the
pub, such that everything would be clearly
visible and audible. We received the answer
paper and were ready to go.
Questions and categories
The categories were really diverse: from music
to topography and from the english language
to general knowledge. a lot of these questions
were pretty hard, but usually at least one
member of the group knew how to come to a
(semi-)correct answer. for example, how many
square kilometres is russia? This was a typical
question that nobody really knew, but after
some thinking we divided the question into
two sub-questions. We estimated the size of
the Netherlands and determined how many
times the Netherlands would fit into russia.
after a minute of discussion we all agreed on
26 million kilometres and later on it became
clear that this guess was very close to the
correct answer. On the other hand, there
were a lot of questions that could not be
discussed. I think this was the only downside
of the quiz.
In the meantime, the second half of the
friendly football match was played and
apparently this half had been much better
according to the score of 4-1. Talking about
scores, how were we doing?
Scores
Our team was not as strong as I had hoped,
since we ended 11th of a total of 16 groups.
Because we were ranked 4th together with
five other teams in the break and ended up
being 11th, it was only little conciliation
that the Dutch football team had won with
outstanding numbers. Of course everyone
had already forgotten about the loss after ten
seconds, because the positive atmosphere
during a pubquiz is what it is all about and
this atmosphere was surely present during
the asset Pubquiz. a nice evening of drinking,
laughing, and answering questions makes a
human hungry and therefore, as a closure of
a beautiful evening, we walked to the best
dönershop in Tilburg and ate a delicious
durum combined with the always holy garlic
sauce. after this late-night dinner, we grabbed
our bicycles and went home. |
Name:
Patrick Kuijpers
Nekst 4 - June 2010 1
Age:
21
Begin studies:
2007

N d t h E W o r L d c h A M P i o N
F o o t B A L L W i L L B E …
f O O T B a L L S Y M P O S I U M a N D D r I N K
on 28 April, Asset | Econometrics organised a symposium about football. Football? is that not the sport in
which 22 players run mindlessly over the pitch? is that not the sport about which millions of ‘inside’ analysts
have mutually exclusive opinions? is there actually a scientific component of football? An English proverb
tells us: ‘What happens on the pitch, stays on the pitch!’ So is this not true? i was very curious to find out.
Name:
Tim Boonen
Age:
23
Begin studies:
2005
The first thing that immediately attracted my
attention was the amount of male students.
Therefore, the null hypotheses that football
is a men’s thing cannot be rejected. The
symposium was opened with a short video
about the impossible goal by roberto Carlos
(Brazil). afterwards, the chairman of the
symposium, Dr Martin van Tuijl, opened the
symposium with a summation of the best
sport results of (former) Tilburg University
students.
The first speaker was Prof. Dr Gerard Sierksma
from Groningen University. He explained
the main econometric tools that are used
in speed-skating and football. He explained
that the technological development in sports
makes it hard to compare different types of
sport. Therefore, he mainly discussed tools
within sports. for instance, he used a Linear
Programming framework to determine
the ‘optimal’ speed-skaters to send to the
Olympic Games. This model was surprisingly
simple. Moreover, it was interesting to
A l o t o f m a l e s t u d e n t s a t t h e F o o t b a l l S y m p o s i u m
see how extensive the current software is
for scouting youth footballers. Based on
simulations, the model determines the best
children for his team.
The second speaker was Dr Michel van de
Velden. He is an expert in football gambling.
He explained how his model would predict
the outcomes of the matches. The model
was only based on data of past tournaments.
Surprisingly, scoring a lot of goals was
considered as unexpected and therefore
never used as a prediction. furthermore,
contrary to actual results, he expected many
draws due to the fact that he compared
offensive and defensive results for both
teams. His main advice was that if you would
like to score best in a World Cup pool, you
should not gamble on unexpected results.
“The main feature of unexpected outcomes
is that you cannot expect them.”
after the break, it was time for the parallel
sessions. One parallel session, given by Hans
2 Nekst 4 - June 2010
P a n e l d i s c u s s i o n
van Maanen, was about the surprising
link between sex, soccer, and statistics.
He showed some major flaws in rather
fancy articles on this subject. Most
articles are just wrong, since the data
have been misused. for instance,
an article states that good football
results have a positive influence on
the amount of children born nine
months after. However, this turned
out to be untrue and hence we do
not have to be afraid of a babyboom
in enschede (i.e. home city of the
National Champion) next winter.
The speaker in the other session
was Dr Loek Groot. He talked about
statistics in american team sports. He
explained that most competitions are
set up in such a way that the strongest
team has an 80% chance of winning.
The last speakers were Iwan van Duren
and Pieter Nieuwenhuis, an employee
of Hypercube. They explained the
practical use of econometrics in
football. essentially, they introduced
the Q-score, which is a ranking that
is mainly used in chess. The system
calculates the strength of a team based
on past results. By using this method,
it is possible to find good bets and
therefore make a lot of money. In the
past, its performance was very good.
Moreover, this score successfully
predicted that f.C. Twente would
become the new National Champion.
furthermore, it showed that Barcelona
is the best team in europe nowadays.
The symposium was closed with a lively
panel discussion. Typically, all experts
had different favourites for the next
World Cup. Based on this note, the title
of the symposium (and this article) is
misleading. Nonetheless, the use of
econometric techniques in football
really surprised me. I think I will bet
on Holland as World Champion.
after the symposium, a drink
took place. first, we watched the
exciting football match between
f.C. Barcelona and f.C. Inter Milano
together. Important to note, we
found out that the professionals at
the symposium falsely expected f.C.
Barcelona to win. afterwards, there
was a beer race. Here, typically, the
male students were willing to show
their talents, but there were also
female students participating in the
beer race. In a very short period of
time, many litres of beer were drunk
by six teams. I participated as a
substitute in a female team, but I was
not capable to let them win anymore.
after all, winning is not so important,
right? eventually, the winner of the
beer race was team ‘Drink Beer, Think
Beer’, which consisted of third year
students only. The drink lasted until
2:00 and was certainly a nice way of
concluding a perfect day. |
Nekst 4 - June 2010 3

o N F E S S i o N S o F A W i c K E d M i N d
S e C r e T a C T I V I T Y
it is over. i can finally sleep. No longer i have to stay awake to plan my next kill. No longer i have to
stay awake to survive. My nightmares are gone and i am no longer haunted by wicked thoughts. Why
did i have to experience so much suffering? to win the title of King of gotcha in the Secret Activity
of Asset | Econometrics.
the rules
although I was indeed a merciless
killer from 13 april until 26 april, I
nonetheless had to obey several rules
if I was to win the Secret activity. The
most important rule dictated that you
were only allowed to kill one specific
target at a time. Therefore, everyone
received a participant card (with one’s
own name on it) and a target card (with
the name of the person you had to kill
on it). In case you killed your target, you
would receive his or her participant and
target card, indicating who your next
victim would be. You did not have to
hand over the target cards of the people
you already killed though. a water gun
was the only weapon you were allowed
to use, and it should be filled with water
only, so no other liquids like ketchup or
beer. furthermore, participants could
not be killed inside the buildings of
Tilburg University nor if they wore
clothes with the asset | econometrics
logo visible. During the information
session on Monday 12 april, the board
explained that the one who killed most
econometricians would win; being dead
or alive on the final day of the activity
would only be considered in case of
a tie. Besides, the sequence of targets
had been designed in a circular way
such that you would never have to kill
yourself before all other participants had
been killed. Nonetheless, I still wanted to
know whether it would be possible to
commit suicide. Unfortunately, this was
not allowed.
the game
at the end of the information session,
everyone received an envelope with his
or her participant and target card inside.
I waited with opening the envelope
until I was completely sure that there
were no other people around. The black
letters on the red card showed the
name elske Leenaars. She would be my
first, but definitely not my last victim. It
was therefore not very remarkable that,
exactly a week later, I entered her room to
obtain my next target card (#1). My next
target was Senna Jansing, and I would
personally make sure that she would be
knockin’ on Gotcha-heaven’s door the
next morning. I certainly succeeded in
that mission (#2). It turned out that Senna
had already killed Joep Olde Juninck, so I
had luckily murdered a direct opponent
as we had both killed one person. Now
I had to assassinate Bart Kruize, who
was not hard to kill as I already noticed
that he is not a born criminal (#3). Bart
informed me that my next target would
be Marleen Veldhuijzen. “Be wary, cause
she is very hard to kill,” Bart advised me.
Well, I am sure that he did not know what
I was capable of at that time!
Nonetheless, I had to interrupt my killing
spree as I had to work on my Bachelor’s
thesis as well. even a serial killer has
a life, you know! Besides, I found out
that another participant, Dieuwertje
Verdouw, was awfully sadistic as well
and she began to form a serious threat
to both my score and my life. Therefore,
I went to my lectures on irregular times,
took detours when travelling from one
building to another, and most of all I
never stopped running. Unfortunately,
even those actions could not save me
from Dieuwertje’s evil plans. Maybe it
was a coincidence or maybe not, but
I bumped into Dieuwertje while I was
cycling home. Luckily, I was able to stop
at a safe distance. Dieuwertje shouted:
“Why so scared? I will not hurt you!” But
I had already made my decision and
eventually she left. Biking home after
that incident was definitely the most
thrilling thing that happened those
weeks.
Since I was now sure who hunted me, I
could plan my next move. after a quick
look at Marleen’s schedule, however, I
concluded that I would not shed any
more blood that week, since Marleen did
not have to follow any more lectures for
the upcoming days and was untraceable
for me. Therefore, I decided to embrace
life again and went to all my classes the
next day. after a presentation about
insurances by ernst & Young, we were
invited to a drink at the esplanade
building. Since we had to walk from
the Warande building to the esplanade
building, two board members granted
me immunity. as soon as we got outside,
Sander Vromen ran towards me and shot
me right in my face. Luckily I was granted
immunity, but a feeling of surprise
overwhelmed me: not Dieuwertje! I did
not have much time to think, however,
because I had to go to the esplanade
building. Nonetheless, I was now aware
of the seriousness of the game: I can die.
I looked at her. She had not died from the
first gunshot, so I shot her twice (#4). She
handed over her participant and target
card. It had become a routine for me. I
knew that she was not an active player,
but she could at least have killed this
target. I mean, come on! Jeroen Dalderop.
Do you need an easier target? although
it took me some time to prepare this kill,
I slaughtered him within a few seconds
(#5). He told me I had to shoot Wilbert
Kistemaker. Wilbert had become famous
by slaying Dennis, who was the likely
4 Nekst 4 - June 2010
winner of this game from the start. fame,
however, would not make someone win
this game. Only cold bodies would do.
It was friday already, and I was in first
place with a total of five kills. It was on
this day that Geert alkema helped me
fitting the pieces together. We found out
that Dieuwertje indeed had to kill me,
but she got killed by Sander just before
he attacked me.
the King
On the last day of the Secret activity,
I took Wilbert’s life (#6). as I decided
not to kill my next target, Geert, the
game was over. Therefore, with a total
of six kills, I won the title of King of
Gotcha, and received a beautiful award:
a golden water gun. I hope that asset |
econometrics will organise such a great
activity again next year. after all, I like to
play a game...
Victim #1: Elske alias Sticker girl
I gave elske the nickname Sticker Girl,
because she always walked around with
the asset | econometrics logo visible
on her coat by sticking a sticker on it.
Therefore, I waited a few days before
making my first move. On Thursday, I
waited until she left the astrics room and
followed her by bike on her way home. I
kept a too large distance, however, and
soon she got out of sight. I biked around
for half an hour, but without result.
On Monday, I planned my final action.
failure was not an option. I went over to
M e a t w o r k
Nekst 4 - June 2010
her house at 21:00, and asked a random
girl on the street to ring her doorbell. I
explained her that I wanted to perform
a practical joke (if only she had known
what kind of joke…), and she simply
had to ask elske to fill out a short survey.
Without any suspicion, elske opened the
door. I immediately jumped in front of
her, aimed at her stomach, and killed her
with a single shot. In contrast to what
I expected, she smiled and asked me
inside. In her room, she handed over her
participant and target card.
Victim #2: Senna alias My Breakfast
I wanted to kill Senna as soon as possible.
Therefore, I checked her schedule and
discovered that she would already have
a lecture on Tuesday morning. for that
reason, I got up early and biked to the
university without a proper breakfast.
Not that I needed breakfast, since Senna
would be a nice alternative. I waited for
her in front of the Koopmans building
for almost twenty minutes. eventually,
I saw Senna parking her bike at the
Warande building. I ran up to her and
my shot instantly killed her. I think she
will never park her bike in front of the
Warande building again.
Victim #3: Bart alias the Layman
Bart turned out to be a layman when it
comes to Gotcha: he is just not a born
criminal. I knew that Bart had to go from
the Prisma building to the Cobbenhagen
building between 10:30 and 10:45.
Therefore, I waited for him in front of the
promotion stands near the library. I even
helped with distributing flyers for the
football Symposium while I was waiting
there. after a few minutes, Bart showed
up in the distance, and as he drew near
me, I said: “Would you like to have a flyer
or do you want to die?” He apparently
preferred dying as he got shot without
a fight.
Victim #4: Marleen alias the Blonde
Marleen, a blonde girl from the first year,
was my fourth target. I coincidentally
saw her walking towards the Dante
building on Thursday. Since my water
gun was not loaded, I had to wait
until she would come outside. In the
meantime, I checked her schedule and
realised I had totally forgotten to look
at her tutorials the other day. I waited
near the exit of the Dante building for
about half an hour, and eventually she
came out of the classroom. I quickly hid
behind a counter and followed her like a
ghost. as soon as we were outside, I shot
her. Strangely enough, she just walked
on. Stupid water gun! Therefore, I shot
her again, and this time she died.
Victim # : Jeroen alias Lazy Boy
Jeroen did not care about the game at all,
so I called him the Lazy Boy. I thought it
would be a nice idea to let him know what
this game was really about. Therefore,
I sent him a text message suggesting
that there were major problems within
his committee, and that he should come
to the astrics room immediately. He
thought that one of the board members
had sent the text message and promised
to be there within an hour. although it
took him longer than an hour to arrive
at the esplanade building, I killed him
without any difficulties.
Victim # : Wilbert alias Mister Fame
My last victim was famous for killing
Dennis, so I had to act wisely. I planned
to kill him after one of his lectures.
Unfortunately, he got out of sight while
everyone was leaving the classroom.
When I was walking to the esplanade
building, however, I suddenly detected
Wilbert in the crowd. for the last time,
my wicked thoughts took control and
commanded my feet to run towards
Wilbert. He saw me approaching, but he
did not move an inch. I leaped upon him
and successfully killed him. He quietly
said: “The game is over, frans.” I replied:
“No it is not. It ends at 15:00 and it is now
12:30.” Wilbert responded: “In that case,
you indeed killed me.” Of course I did. |
Text by: Frans Fonville

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EXchANgE StudENtS ABout WorLd cuP
a N I N T r O D U C T I O N
Because of the FiFA World cup in South Africa, Nekst
decided to give the exchange students at tilburg
university a chance to explain why their country should
be the next World champion. Furthermore, they will
introduce you to the way in which the World cup is
followed in their home country. they were also given the
opportunity to comment on the dutch madness and did
so with gratitude.
first of all, the word ‘football’ as you
know it in europe has a different
meaning in australia. We use it to
refer to rugby football as well as
australian rules football. Only in
third place do we use it when talking
about the sport that will be played
in South africa this summer. In my
Jane Stanley
opinion, australia will not win the
fIfa World Cup. australia is simply
A u s t r a l i a
inhabited by imported people, so
how could we? To be honest, I do not
know a lot about our national team; what is actually the colour of
their shirts? at home, I usually watch football with my friends on
television, although I like playing football myself a lot more. I have
no idea about the way people feel about the World Cup in my home
country, but the Dutch are certainly a lot more enthusiastic.
even though the Italian national
football team won the previous
World Cup (and is the current World
Champion), I am not sure whether
we will win this year. I actually think
that we were just lucky last time. The
next World Champion will probably
be Brazil or Spain. Of course I will
Stefano ridulfo watch the World Cup. We support
our team by means of our national
I t a l y
flag instead of wearing the colours
of our team; we only wear blue shirts
in the stadium. I heard that the Dutch bet on their favourite team
in football pools. Back in Italy, I am going to bet on my favourite
team as well.
I am actually from Scotland, but we
do not participate in the World Cup.
Therefore, I support england as it
is closest to Scotland. I especially
like Wayne rooney of the england
national football team. I think that
Germany, Brazil, and Spain will
have a fair chance on winning the
Matt Leon
World Cup. I usually watch football
at home with my friends. The
E n g l a n d
madness about football is rather
modest in our country compared
to the Netherlands. Nevertheless, we also support our team by
wearing T-shirts, which are white with a Union Jack on it. In my
opinion, your country will at least reach the quarter finals.
Unfortunately, Hungary has
already been beaten in the
enikö Gargya
qualifying rounds, although we
tried our best. Our current team
is not that good, albeit we have
some good players playing abroad
such as Balázs Dzsudzsák. I usually
watch the matches with my two
brothers, and we will probably
support Spain, france, and the
H u n g a r y
Netherlands. I noticed that the
Dutch people are very enthusiastic
about the World Cup with all their orange flags, shirts, and so on.
The people in Hungary were never that excited about it; perhaps
because the disappointment of losing will be less this way. I like
both watching and playing football; I even played a match in
Tilburg against some Dutch students.
I think Germany will not win the
World Cup. Our team is not as
strong as it used to be, since the
players have had ample time to
train. furthermore, the strikers
and midfielders are currently in
a bad condition and most of all,
Ballack will not be able to play
andreas Selk for Germany. I think Spain or
South africa will win instead. In
G e r m a n y particular, South africa is very
motivated to win and will possibly
be able to make gold out of crap; this country is not bad at all. I
will definitely try to watch all the matches.
Nekst 2 4 - June december 2010 2009 7

A i r Y t A L E S F r o M M At h E M At i c S
S P e C I a L
We assume that econometricians like mathematics, in particular nice mathematics. in most courses, you
are bombed with laws and theorems. Let me present you another law. this law is more or less part of the
mathematical fairy tales though. these so-called informal mathematics or folk theorems always have a
happy end and some things just seem too good to be true. in fact, you will see that this is indeed the case.
Name:
Mirjam Groote
Schaarsberg
Age:
24
Begin studies:
2008
Mathematical folklore; in physics your
teacher probably told you a stor y about
Isaac Newton’s discover y of gravitation
due to an apple landing on his head, or
archimedes lying in his bath tub thinking
“eUreKa” as he discovered buoyancy.
Other folk mathematics involves real
laws, techniques or theorems that evolve
in the world of mathematics, but have
never actually been printed. There is one
mathematician who wrote down some of
these obser vations and called those the
Strong Law of Small Numbers (Guy, 1988).
Not to be confused with the one you study
in your statistics courses: the Strong Law
of Large Numbers.
richard Guy states: “ There are not enough
small numbers to meet the many demands
made of them.” Like the author of the
humorous paper mentions himself, he
could not really find a proper way of
stating his theorem. His feeling is that
any given small number appears in far
more contexts than may seem reasonable,
leading to a lot of apparently surprising
coincidences in mathematics, simply
because small numbers appear so often
and yet are so few in number.
The paper contains 35 examples with
unexpected coincidences when it comes
to small numbers. The question is whether
this also holds for larger numbers. Guy
wants to show that these ‘coincidences’
occur due to the smallness of the
numbers. Whether a number is small, is
not clearly defined: just small enough for
mathematical coincidences to occur. Like
the law of large numbers, these numbers
are just sufficiently large to apply the law.
Some basic facts about small numbers:
- Ten percent of the first 100 natural
numbers are square numbers;
- a quar ter of those natural numbers are
primes;
- all natural numbers smaller than 10 are
prime powers, except for the number 6.
You can verify these facts by yourself quite
easily.
for an example of Guy ’s law, draw a circle
and put n points on that circle. randomly
draw different chords (lines) between
those points, such that the points are
connected. If you count the number of
regions that appear because of these lines,
you will find a surprising straightfor ward
connection with the size of n (see figure
1).
If you count correctly, you will find
the sequence 2 n-1 . for larger numbers,
however, this does not hold. You can find
an expression for the number of regions
in the circle with n dots, but this is a little
more involved than in case of our example
with small numbers (use euler ’s formula).
The strong law of small numbers is simply
proven by intimidation. for ever y example,
Guy asks you, as a reader, whether it also
holds for larger numbers. eventually, he
explains why these coincidences occur
and what happens for larger sizes of n.
although there is no direct proof, the
examples are quite convincing, and he
shows many nice proper ties of integer
numbers. Besides, not all the examples
hold for small numbers only.
Consider the sequence of positive integers
(star ting from 1), delete ever y second
number (the even numbers), and form the
par tial cumulative sum of the remaining
numbers. In this way, you get a sequence
of squares.
8 Nekst 4 - June 2010
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
1 4 9 16 25 36
Or in three steps: delete the third integer, take the partial
sums, then delete the second number and look again at
the partial sums. In this case, you obtain the following:
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 3 7 12 19 27 37 48 61
1 2 3 8 4 5 6 7 27 8 9 10 64 11 12 13 125
1 3 7 12 19 27 37 48 61
Instead 1 of squares, 8 we 27 find cubes. 64 We can also find 125 fourth
powers: delete every fourth integer, then every third
partial sum, then every second partial sum, and take a
look at the remaining partial sums. The results are as
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
follows:
1 3 6 11 17 24 33 43 54 67
1 4 2 3 4 5 15 6 32 7 8 9 65 10 108 11 12 13 175
1 3 6 11
16
17 24 33
81
43 54 67
256
1 4 15 32 65 108 175
1 16 81 256
These are examples of Moessner ’s process (1951). for
those of you who would like to explore this further in
english, I refer to Long (1982).
Let us conclude with another convincing example. The
following numbers are primes:
31 331 3331 33331 333331 3333331
F i g u r e 1 : R e g i o n s i n t h e c i r c l e s f o r n = 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5
Moreover, 33333331 is a prime as well. However,
333333331 = 17 x 19607843 (as the expression states),
is obviously not a prime. Indeed, some things just seem
too good to be true, and this strong law only holds for
sufficiently small numbers.
Note that this Strong Law of Small Numbers should not
be confused with the law of small numbers, which may
refer to the Poisson distribution. This is its alternative
name, because it describes the number of occurrences
of an event that happens rarely even though it has
a lot of opportunities to take place. The law of small
numbers could also refer to hasty generalisation based
on insufficient evidence.
You can see for yourself whether or not you are convinced
by the evidence, but be warned (by richard Guy): “You
cannot tell by looking!” |
references
Guy, r.K. (1988). The Strong Law of Small numbers, American Mathematical
Monthly, 95, 697-712.
Long, C.T. (1982). Strike it out – add it up, Mathematical Management, 66,
273-277.
Moessner, a. (1951). eine Bemerkung über die Potenzen der natürlichen
Zahlen, S.-B. Math.-Nat. Kl. Bayer. akad. Wiss., 29, 14-353b.
Nekst 4 - June 2010 9

t i S L i K E r A i N o N Y o u r
A N N o u N c E M E N t d r i N K
f O O T B a L L T O U r N a M e N T a N D a N N O U N C e M e N T D r I N K
Wednesday 9 June had been an exciting day for a lot of people. Not only the results of the elections
for the dutch house of representatives would be announced, but also the candidate board of Asset |
Econometrics for the academic year 2010-2011. And then there was also the yearly Asset | Econometrics
Football tournament.
Name:
Bart van Schuppen
Age:
20
Begin studies:
2008
although the weather was not as good as we
had hoped it to be on this morning, many
econometricians gathered at the fields of
TSVV Merlijn for the last activity of asset |
econometrics this academic year: the football
Tournament. eight teams competed against
each other to prove that they were best, take
the prize home, and earn everlasting glory
within our association. Last year, a team of
teachers participated and even won the
tournament. Unfortunately, the students did
not get the chance to take revenge on them,
since the teachers were on a trip and could
therefore not join the tournament. Good for
them, since no team would have let them
win the tournament again.
after a few rounds of matches, a lovely
lunch, and unfortunately some rain as well,
it was time for the knockout rounds to take
place. The teams playing against each other
became more balanced and some matches
were even decided by a penalty shootout.
eventually the most important match of the
day was about to begin. albeit the raining
became heavier, many students watched the
final match of the day. after twenty minutes
of excitement, ‘Team Zâes’ turned out to
be the winner of the asset | econometrics
football Tournament 2010. Congratulations!
Playing football all day long had made
all of us hungry, so we were glad that the
barbecue was planned right after the football
tournament. even more econometricians
(those who did not join us during the
tournament) arrived to have dinner with us.
although the weather conditions were not
ideal for barbecuing, a few members of our
association proved to master the barbecuing
skills even under these circumstances. I
would like to thank them for their efforts
during the evening.
around half past seven, everybody had gone
home in order to change clothes and get
ready for the most exciting part of the day:
the announcement Drink. During this drink,
the candidate board of asset | econometrics
would be announced. The drink was wellvisited
by members of our association,
boards and candidate boards of other asset
associations, and many others who were
curious about the candidate board.
around 23:00 the announcement movie
started. at first sight, it seemed like we were
looking at the results of the elections of
that day, but then it turned out that a new
political party had joined the elections and
got five seats: asset | econometrics. five seats
for five board members. One by one, several
(dubbed) political big-shots announced
the candidate board: Claudia rommens,
ad van Herpen, Bart Kruize, elske Leenaars,
and Bart van Schuppen (yours truly) are
looking forward to a great year of leading
the association. Before the candidate board
could be congratulated, the current board
had to do some kind of test. During the past
year, the four women of the current board
had become ‘Harold’s Harem’. To prove that
they were a real harem, the women had to
dress correctly and then prove that they
were able to do the limbo dance. They very
well succeeded in doing so.
for the candidate board, it was a great
evening with loads of handshakes, nice
conversations, and meeting a lot of new
people. I enjoyed it a lot and hope that
everyone else has had a great night too.
after a lot of free beers, it was time to leave
the pub. It was a fantastic closure of the
academic year and an even better start of
my time as a candidate chairman! |
0 Nekst 4 - June 2010
ShouLd thE FootBALL WorLd cuP 2018 BE
hELd iN thE NEthErLANdS ANd BELgiuM?
O P I N I O N P O L L
the Football World cup 2010 in South Africa has started. in the meanwhile, several countries are already
competing for being the host of the Wc 2018. one of these countries is the Netherlands. the Netherlands
would like to organise the Wc 2018 together with the southern neighbours, Belgium. But would that be
positive for the dutch citizens? Nekst asked four econometricians for their opinion.
Joep olde Juninck (First year student)
Before I replied to this poll, I had never really thought about the
possibility that we, the Netherlands, would organise a World
Cup. So my first reaction was: why not? It would be a great
opportunity, in particular for such a small country as we are,
to organise this worldwide and well-known event. Of course,
there are some disadvantages as well: it will be expensive
to organise and if we would not get chosen to organise the
event, we might lose face as a country. Nonetheless, these
disadvantages are in no way comparable to the advantages
of organising this event. If we would organise the World
Cup, it is not only beneficial to the economy and tourism,
it will also give us the opportunity to show the world that
we are not a small backwater country. even more important,
we can all enjoy the great ambiance during the World Cup
itself. Looking at the advantages and disadvantages, the
Netherlands should, in cooperation with Belgium or maybe
even on its own, host the fIfa World Cup 2018!
thomas geelen (Second year student)
Should the Netherlands and Belgium organise the football
World Cup in 2018? Yes, I think we should organise the World
Cup. I think that getting the World Cup to the Netherlands
and Belgium will have a positive influence on the view of the
rest of the world on the Netherlands. furthermore, organising
a World Cup might cost money, but the countries will regain
parts due to tax income raised by the extra tourists a World
Cup attracts. You can also take advantage of the newly built
infrastructures in the future. furthermore, organising the
event together with Belgium is a good plan as well, since
our country is too small to organise a World Cup on its own.
We have already had positive experiences with Belgium in
organising large football tournaments, i.e. Uefa european
football Championship 2000. Besides, organising the World
Cup will also create some employment in the Netherlands
and Belgium in the upcoming years.
Manon geertsen (Master student)
If the Holland-Belgium bid will be organised, it will be the
most sustainable World Cup in history. Belgium and the
Netherlands are the perfect candidates for restricting the
ecological footprint as the matches will be played on so-called
fields of dreams. furthermore, Belgium and the Netherlands
are located centrally, which makes these countries wellaccessible.
Organising the World Cup will be a stimulant
for the development of football, but it will also be a good
impulse for our economy. During the World Cup, the focus
will be, besides on football of course, on social responsibility.
Different foundations have been founded in Belgium and the
Netherlands for helping children to exercise sports, like the
Johan Cruyff foundation.
Mohammed chahim (PhD student)
after a successful european Championship in 2000, Belgium
and the Netherlands will again try to organise a prestigious
tournament on their home soil. In 2005, the Netherlands were
the host country for the second largest fIfa tournament,
the World Youth Championship. The organisation of both
tournaments was flawless. Since the Netherlands do not have
enough stadiums with a capacity over 45,000 spectators, we
asked Belgium to join us. for Belgium, it is clear why they
want to be a co-organiser: it seems that this is the only way
for them to participate in such a tournament. Both countries
are currently preparing a bid for 2018, and even the great
prophet Johan Cruijf has agreed to become an ambassador. I
think it would be great for both countries to become a host,
since the event has been proven to be beneficial to a country.
for example, it has a positive impact on employment, tourism,
and infrastructure. The only big uncertainty is: will Belgium
exist in 2018? |
Nekst 4 - June 2010 1

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of innovator?
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in het actuariaat. Heb je er de inhoud voor, dan wacht je een
prachtige carrière op het snijvlak van zakelijk en maatschappelijk
belang. Inclusief een aantrekkelijk salaris, interessante opleidingen
en een prettige balans tussen werk en privé. Klinkt goed?
Klopt. Lees meer over je kansen op www.pggm.nl/werkenbij
Stagiair
Junior actuarieel medewerker
De toonaangevende afdeling Actuariaat & Asset Liability
Management van PGGM bestaat uit 25 professionals. Jonge
mensen, die advies uitbrengen over de meest uiteenlopende
kwesties. Wat wordt bijvoorbeeld ons financiële beleid? Hoe
‘houdbaar’ is een pensioencontract? Wat is de beste methode
van verslaglegging en welk verzekeringsproduct heeft echt
toegevoegde waarde? Maar ook: wat moet de invloed van het
solidariteitsprincipe zijn? Al met al heb je tal van mogelijkheden.
Je kunt beginnen met een (afstudeer)stage. Of je kiest gelijk
voor de functie van junior actuarieel medewerker. In beide
gevallen doe je snel een schat aan kennis en ervaring op.
En je krijgt alle ruimte voor initiatief. Dus: ben je bijna of
net klaar met je studie actuariaat, wiskunde of econometrie?
Bel (030) 277 85 43 voor meer informatie. Direct solliciteren
is natuurlijk ook een optie. Stuur je reactie met cv naar
PGGM, Human Resources, t.a.v. Martine Gersen, Postbus
117, 3700 AC Zeist, of per mail naar solliciteren@pggm.nl.
www.pggm.nl/werkenbij
Johan van Arkel, PGGM
h Y S t E r i A
C O L U M N
on 4 May, my television was on showing ‘remembrance of the dead’ (dutch: dodenherdenking). After two
minutes of silence, a confused man screamed out of frustration. Before long, there was talk of a bomb and
thousands of people started fleeing in terror, trampling other people on their way to safety: to kill or be
killed. As a side note, news reports mentioned there was never any cause for panic.
In my life I have witnessed several historical
events live on television. My earliest memory
of such an event is about the Chernobyl
disaster. That memory is probably false, since
I was about to turn three that summer. I am
certain that several years later I watched
the fall of the Berlin Wall on television, a
prelude to the fall of the Soviet Union. This
was shortly followed by the Second Gulf
War (1990-1991), and the abolishment of
apartheid in South africa (1994).
Of course, the biggest event has been
the attack on the World Trade Center. I
remember seeing the second building of
the Twin Towers collapse as well as watching
replays of the aeroplane striking that tower
moments earlier. after the initial shock, I
picked myself up and went to a lecture. It
was my first month at Tilburg University.
The next day, there was plenty of debate
on television about the new reality we were
now suddenly living in. as always, life went
on.
Two more historical events have been added
recently: remembrance of the Dead and a
plane crash near Tripoli. In the latter case
a plane crashed for reasons yet unknown,
but terrorism has been ruled out. One little
boy miraculously survived. Given the media
attention, it is obvious that this plane crash
was something extraordinary. In my view,
even 9/11 got less attention. Whatever it
made it so special eluded me.
fortunately, there are two groups in our
society that are a lot smarter than the
ordinary econometrician: journalists and
politicians. The immediate importance of
these events on the future of the world did
not remain unclear to them. Within minutes
we were shown images of local rescue
workers all day. These people were asked
about all facets of the crash, but none of
them had any answers. Undeterred, similarly
clueless local people were interviewed. Of
course, all of this ‘important’ information
was broadcasted again and again as if it
was news.
The little boy must have possessed vital
information that was urgently needed to
prevent a Third World War. even before
the anesthetic had properly worn off, the
injured infant was subjected to interviews
about the crash that killed his parents and
brother, something which he was unaware
of at that moment. Had this interview been
conducted by an army officer, then it would
have been a war crime under the Geneva
Conventions. a treatment you would not
even subject your worst enemy to. The
interview, however, was done by a journalist,
so it was all right.
Politicians immediately grasped the
consequences of the crash. even before
the news had reached the Dutch citizens,
the most prominent politicians had
convened and came to the conclusion that
it was impossible to continue working.
all politicians had to remain on standby
to reassure the nation that they could
not provide any information as well.
Campaigning for the elections stopped
due to the impossible conditions the new
reality imposed on them. Once again, this
new reality did not introduce itself to the
ordinary people. for them, it could have
been just another plane crash.
This takes us back to the beginning. It
seems that our society has changed after
9/11. exaggerated responses have become
the norm. after all, it looks like there is only
one confused man who got it right. |
Name:
Gerwald van Gulick
Position:
PhD Candidate
Nekst 4- June 2010 3

i N A N c i A L i N S i g h t S
f I N a N C e M O N I T O r I N G C O M M I T T e e
As a former treasurer of Asset | Econometrics, i have the honour to fulfil a task that has belonged to former
treasurers for a long time now: being a proud member of the Finance Monitoring (FiMo) committee. Stefan
damen, thomas geelen, Bart Kruize, Paul Peters, and yours truly form the FiMo committee for this year, and
we have been given an important task: we have to check the financial business of our association.
Name:
Kay Mennens
Age:
23
Begin studies:
2004
The committee is not an official committee
compared to, for example, the Drinks &
activities or active Members Weekend
committee. The importance of our work,
however, is very close to the importance
of these committees, albeit somewhat less
visible to the members of the association.
I will use this opportunity to sketch a
typical controlling session, and make
you somewhat more aware of what is
happening behind the scenes.
as you might know, money plays an
important role within the association.
Invoices are sent and received, activities
are paid for, members pay fees for
participating, barrels of beer are bought at
the pub, etcetera. The task of the treasurer
is doing the bookkeeping and making sure
that the money is spent according to plan.
Moreover, the treasurer has to make sure
that all the invoices that have been sent
out will actually be paid. In the end, the
treasurer has to report his or her work and
the General Members Meeting (GMM) has
to confirm the presented matter. The fiMo
Committee acts as the eyes of the GMM by
checking the validity of the numbers and
has insight in the entire bookkeeping.
The committee organises three to four
sessions per year, usually taking place in
the evenings: mainly because there are not
a lot of members at the astrics room in the
evenings, but also because some members
of the committee already have a job or do
not live in Tilburg anymore.
after a pizza or some Mensa food, the big
files with the bank account statements,
receipts, received invoices, and sent
invoices are taken out and compared
carefully with the bookkeeping documents
provided by the treasurer. It is important
to check whether all the amounts on the
invoices have been booked correctly and
whether the treasurer has not fiddled with
the numbers. It is also important to check
whether, for example, advertisements in
Nekst have been invoiced correctly, so
the association will actually receive the
money.
Due to some efficient teamwork, we usually
accomplish this task within a few hours. at
the end of the session, we formulate some
points of action for the treasurer, ranging
from chasing counterparties (so they will
pay their outstanding invoices) to booking
some amounts to different accounts.
The treasurer has usually done a good
job and the advice to the GMM will be a
positive one. Together we can make sure
that everything within the association is
done correctly and according to the rules.
In this way, the GMM can be comfortable
with the presented numbers. |
G e n e r a l M e m b e r s M e e t i n g
4 Nekst 4 - June 2010
N o N o g r A M
P U Z Z L e
For this edition, Nekst has again made a challenging puzzle for you. this time you can run your
thoughts over a nonogram. A nonogram is a Japanese puzzle in which, pixel by pixel, a picture
grows underneath your pencil.
The cells in the grid below have
to be painted black or left blank,
according to the numbers given
at the top or left hand side of the
grid. Note that the grey area in the
bottom left corner is not par t of
the grid. eventually, the coloured
pixels reveal a hidden picture. In
this puzzle, the numbers indicate
how many unbroken lines of filled-
Nekst 4 - June 2010
5
7
1 7
3 7
5 7
5 5
4 3
16
16
15
13
8 5
8 7
7 2
7 1
7
7
6
1 6
3 7
5 7
9 7
4 8 8
2 15
1 14
6 5
5 5
2 4
3 3
3 5
3 7
4 7
4 7
4 5
3 3
3
7
5
4
0
in squares have to be drawn in each
row or column. for example, a clue
of ‘4 8 3’ means that there are sets of
four, eight, and three filled squares
– in that order – with at least one
blank square between successive
groups.
When you have finished the
nonogram, you can hand it in at
the asset | econometrics room or
send your solution to Nekst@asseteconometrics.nl
until 1 September
2010. The mathematics contest
of the previous edition is won by
ger wald van gulick. He can pick
up a crate of beer or a pie (Dutch:
vlaai) at the asset | econometrics
room. for the winner of this puzzle,
the same prize will be waiting. |
4 1 2 3
2 4 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 10 4 6 6 6 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 5 7 7
3 3 3 4 4 4 3 2 3 3 3 4 5 4 9 21 20 25 25 26 20 6 10 10 9 6 6 4 3 3 2 1 7 5 3

u A t S c h !
r e M a r K a B L e Q U O T e S
Fortunately, the editorial staff of Nekst received many quotes over the past months. Maybe you will even
know who made the mystery quatsch? if so, please mail your solution to Nekst@Asset-Econometrics.nl to win
a nice prize! of course, you can still mail all remarkable quotes you have heard to this email address as well!
English Quotes
Mr Vermeulen while handing out the test results: “If you
were a wine, I would say that you are from a good year.”
Mr Van den akker during a lecture of the course Life
Insurance: “Then we have a row vector,” moves hand in
vertical direction. “and a column vector,” moves hand in
horizontal direction.
dutch Quotes
Harold van Heijst: “Ik heb de hik.” Marleen Balvert: “Zeg het
alfabet eens achterstevoren op.” Harold: “Z, x, ehm…”
Whitney Pattinaja loopt met een gitaartas op haar rug. elske
Leenaars: “Waarom heb jij een piano op je rug?”
Dieuwertje Verdouw: “Is dat bierflesje dicht of vol?”
Dhr. Vermeulen tijdens een hoorcollege Inleiding
econometrie: “Deze bèta is vetjes, net als deze y.” Gegiechel
in de zaal. Studenten: “Dat noemen wij dikgedrukt, hoor.”
Dhr. Vermeulen tijdens het daaropvolgende college: “Ik
heb het nagevraagd aan arthur van Soest en het mag ook
‘vetgedrukt’ zijn.”
Harold van Heijst: “Het was een bedrijf met een D. ehm…
L’Oréal!”
Stèphanie van Breda: “Dan hebben sommigen een
voorsprong en sommigen een nasprong.”
Claudia rommens kijkt naar een wedstrijdverslag van
Humberto Tan op tv: “Werkt hij nog voor tv dan?”
Na gestrand te zijn in Dordrecht, besluit emile van elen de
trein terug te nemen naar Tilburg. Later belt Mathijs Jansen
met emile. Linda Vos vraagt vervolgens aan Mathijs: “Was
emile al terug in Tilburg?” Mathijs: “Ja, die staat nu net op
het spoor in Tilburg.”
Dieuwertje Verdouw: “Ik heb heel veel decibel in mijn
stem!”
Marleen Balvert: “Wat vieren we eigenlijk met Pinksteren?”
Stèphanie van Breda: “Is Pinksteren niet negen maanden
voor kerst?”
frans fonville: “Mijn vader heeft mijn zus ook met de auto
naar het buitenland gebracht.” Marleen Balvert: “Helemaal
naar amerika?”
Harold van Heijst op het KOaLa wanneer hij terugkomt van
het stappen: “er was ook een blonde tweeling! eentje was
20 en de ander 22.”
ramon van Schaik vraagt vervolgens verbaasd: “20 en 22?”
Harold van Heijst: “Het was een erg lange bevalling.”
Marleen Balvert tijdens een bestuursvergadering: “anders
plannen we de LeD twee weken eerder dan 13 maart, dus
op 31 februari.”
Mystery Quatsch
“Oei, ik ben vergeten een pak melk in de koelkast te zetten!
Zuur…”
The previous Myster y Quatsch was made by Mr Talman
and has been solved by geer t Alkema. He can pick up
his prize at the asset | econometrics room.
Nekst 4 - June 2010
g r A d u A t E S
T O C O N C L U D e
over the past months, the following econometricians obtained their master’s degree. Asset | Econometrics
would like to congratulate:
Name: Mathijs Jansen
Title: Call Centre forecasting
Supervisors: Dr Boldea, Dr Drost
Name: Li Ying Ya
Title: The effect of aging of industrial employment
share – evidence from the european Union
Supervisors: Dr Salm, Dr Klein
Name: Nicole van reij
Title: Managing market risks for Dutch insurers
Supervisors: Dr Laeven, Dr Charlier
Name: Siawash Safavi Nic
Title: forecasting Bond returns Using Jumps in
Intraday Prices
Supervisors: Prof. Dr Werker, Prof. Dr Melenberg
Name: annick Traa
Title: an application of variable neighborhood
search for minimizing noise annoyance
around Schiphol airport
Supervisors: Dr Peeters, Prof. Dr Kant
P L A N N i N g
T O C O N C L U D e
tuesday 31 August
General Members Meeting and Drink
During the academic year 2010-2011, a new board will lead
our association. During the General Members Meeting on 31
august, the board of 2009-2010 will present this new board.
furthermore, the new board will present its policy and budget
for the academic year 2010-2011. afterwards there will be a
drink, so everybody will get the opportunity to congratulate
the new board.
Monday September
Tilburg University Cantus
after the success of last year, the next academic year will
again be opened by the Tilburg University Cantus in the
evening of 6 September 2010. for those who have always
enjoyed the asset Beer Cantus or have good memories of
the cantus during the TIK week, the TUC is a great way to sing
and drink beer together with hundreds of other students.
Name: Tim Thijssen
Title: eye for investment? Three repeat Sales
regression analysis on art
Supervisors: Prof. Dr Melenberg, Prof. Dr rennenboog
Name: Ties Wagemans
Title: Don’t disable your company
Supervisors: Prof. Dr fleuren, Prof. Dr Das
Name: Thomas Zelders
Title: a generator for risk neutral scenario’s of
credit risky portfolios
Supervisors: Dr Charlier, Prof. Dr Schumacher
Name: Louis raes
Title: Macro finance, large datasets and the
bond yield conundrum
Supervisors: Prof. Dr eiffinger, Dr Mahieu
Name: Suzuki Takamasa
Title: Stability of the average Tree solution for
line graph Games
Supervisors: Prof. Dr Talman, Prof. Dr Borm
Second week of September
Introduction Activity
each academic year a group of new freshmen enters the
world of econometrics. To welcome them and let them get
in touch with asset | econometrics, the association organises
the Introduction activity, which means a day full of games.
for this day, active members can subscribe as a volunteer or
join the barbecue at the end of the day.
Wednesday 13 up until 20 october
Study Tour to Moscow
In October a group of 18 econometricians will travel to the
beautiful city of Moscow, where they will visit several cultural
highlights. Besides that, the students will visit Lomonosov
Moscow State University and some companies.
Nekst 4 - June 2010 7

t i c K E r S o N h o L i d AY
S U M M e r P H O T O C O N T e S T
Nekst is excited to announce the third Asset | Econometrics photo contest. this year, the contest will gather
photos from all over the world of you and the beautiful ‘i love Astrics’ stickers®, which you can pick up at room
E110. the most original photo will win a pie or a crate of beer.
The rules are simple: send a photo that clearly shows you
and the ‘I love astrics’ sticker® to Nekst@asset-econometrics.
nl. The submission deadline is 1 September 2010. Several
photos will be published in the next edition of Nekst.
rules for entry
- entries must be sent in before 1 September 2010 at 23:59
via Nekst@asset-econometrics.nl.
- It is forbidden to edit your submission with Photoshop or
any other photo-editing program.
- all members of asset | econometrics and the department of
econometrics & Or may join the competition.
- entries should show both the ‘I love astrics’ sticker® and the
person who enters the contest.
- entries in which the ‘I love astrics’ sticker® has been
clearly mistreated will be reported to the board of asset |
econometrics.
Yo u a n d t h e s t i c k e r s h o u l d b e c l e a r l y v i s i b l e
- entries without a genuine ‘I love astrics’ sticker® will not be
considered.
- entries in which, besides yourself, members of the editorial
staff of Nekst are visible will receive bonus points.
- It is not allowed to send photos by mail unless received in a
cerise envelope sprayed with female perfume.
- It is forbidden to edit your submission by manual cut-andpaste
techniques and subsequently sending in a scanned
copy of your design.
- entries received exactly on 1 September 2010 at 23:59 will
get bonus points.
- entries will be assessed on originality by this year’s and
next year’s editors-in-chief of Nekst.
- No correspondence will be entered into.
- entering a submission to this competition constitutes
acceptance of the rules. |
D o NOT mistreat the ‘I Love Astrics’ sticker®
8 Nekst 4 - June 2010
DSF
Merit Award
Do you have
what it takes?
Duisenberg school of fi nance stands for top education and research
in fi nance. A premier private fi nance school located in the heart of
Europe with world class faculty and direct links to industry leaders
in the world of fi nance.
4 Merit Scholarship Awards worth 90% of the tuition each will be
awarded to selected candidates applying for any one of the DSF Master’s
programmes. The application deadline is Monday 2 August 2010.
Visit our website www.dsf.nl for more detailed information on our
specifi c Degree programmes and Financial Aid opportunities.
for leaders in fi nance
DSF Degree programmes
• MSc in Risk Management
• MSc in Corporate Finance
and Banking
• MSc in Finance and Law
• LLM in Finance and Law
• MPhil/PhD in Finance
Eligible candidates must
• be a graduate from a
DSF partner University
- University of Amsterdam
- VU University
- Erasmus University or
- Tilburg University
• graduate before
September 2010
• be accepted to DSF
before August 2010

We consider teamwork as the cornerstone of our business
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For our Analyst Program, NIBC is looking for university
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