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Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power ... - tuprints

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Appendix B: An Example on Decision Analysis<br />

Consider an <strong>in</strong>dustrial area which is supplied by a medium voltage under ground system [14].<br />

Decision must be taken about re<strong>in</strong>forcement of the power network to meet the follow<strong>in</strong>g loads:<br />

• Load <strong>in</strong>crease by exist<strong>in</strong>g consumers<br />

• Uncerta<strong>in</strong> load A which may be connected to the network at the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of year 5<br />

• Uncerta<strong>in</strong> load B which may be connected to the network at the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of year 7<br />

Occurrence degree (probability of occurrence) of establish<strong>in</strong>g loads A and B is equal to 0.7<br />

and 0.6 respectively. As a first decision, the planners must select one of the follow<strong>in</strong>g options:<br />

• Re<strong>in</strong>force the network by a double-circuit l<strong>in</strong>e on the subtransmission level with only<br />

one circuit (DCL-FC). The second circuit may be <strong>in</strong>stalled later (DCL-SC) <strong>in</strong> the<br />

plann<strong>in</strong>g period.<br />

• Re<strong>in</strong>force the network by a s<strong>in</strong>gle-circuit l<strong>in</strong>e on the subtransmission level (SCL).<br />

• Re<strong>in</strong>force the network by a medium voltage cable (MVC).<br />

Decision must be made at the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of year one, five or seven. Above decisions may be<br />

repeated later on the second or third <strong>in</strong>vestment decisions. Due to the growth of the exist<strong>in</strong>g<br />

load, the first decision can not consist of a “do noth<strong>in</strong>g” decision. The costs of expansion<br />

plans, which are discounted to the beg<strong>in</strong>n<strong>in</strong>g of year 1 with the <strong>in</strong>terest rate 6 percent, are<br />

given <strong>in</strong> table B.1. The entire decision process is described <strong>in</strong> figure B.1. In this figure each<br />

circle represents a decision node and each square represents an events node. The follow<strong>in</strong>g<br />

expansion plans can meet both load A and B:<br />

• double-circuit l<strong>in</strong>e with two circuits, and<br />

• two s<strong>in</strong>gle-circuit l<strong>in</strong>es.<br />

The follow<strong>in</strong>g expansion plans can meet either load A or B:<br />

• medium voltage cable plus double-circuit l<strong>in</strong>e with one circuits, and<br />

• medium voltage cable plus s<strong>in</strong>gle-circuit l<strong>in</strong>e.

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