# Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power ... - tuprints

Transmission Expansion Planning in Deregulated Power ... - tuprints

2 Transmission Expansion Planning Approaches 6

flow is as below [9]-[11]:

• Run the probabilistic load flow for the existing network and given PDFs of loads for

the planning horizon, and compute the technical criteria such as the probability of

violating line flow limits and voltage limits.

• Suggest some expansion plans based on the computed technical criteria.

• Add each of the suggested plans to the network separately, run the probabilistic load

flow, and compute the technical criteria for each plan.

• Select the final plan based on the technical criteria and economic analysis.

2.1.1.2 Probabilistic Based Reliability Criteria

The algorithm of transmission expansion planning using probabilistic based reliability criteria

is as bellow [12]-[13]:

• Suggest some expansion plans by analyzing the existing network.

• Add each of the suggested expansion plans to the network separately, and compute the

reliability criteria such as expected energy not supplied, expected number of load

curtailment, and expected duration of load curtailments for each plan using Monte

Carlo simulation.

• Select the final plan based on the reliability criteria and economic analysis.

2.1.1.3 Scenario Technique

Scenario technique and decision analysis are more general and can be used for the planning of

any system. The algorithm of expansion planning using scenario techniques is as below [14]-

[22]:

• Determining the set of probable future scenarios. A scenario is a set of outcomes or

realizations of all uncertainties. The scenarios must be defined so that to cover all nonrandom

uncertainties.

• Determining the occurrence probability or occurrence degree of future scenarios.

• Determining the set of possible solutions (expansion plans).

• Selecting a cost function to measure the goodness of expansion plans.

• Selecting the final plan using one of the following criteria:

1. Expected cost criterion: this criterion selects the plan that minimizes the expected

cost over different scenarios [14]-[16], [19], [22], i.e.:

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