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September 2012 - Fauquier County

September 2012 - Fauquier County

Fauquier County Economic Indicators I. Executive Summary Fiscal health can be measured by a myriad of factors which provide insight to current and historical economic conditions, future projections, budget preparation, and determining needs or priorities of the community. The data provided in this document is a means of presenting fiscal health characteristics in terms of current trends as a quick snapshot of the market today which can indicate where the market is moving or of historical trends to display the trends of the market over multiple fiscal or calendar years. Current trends provide context for the historical trends of the economic environment, its prolonged expansion or contraction of the market, and signs of change. The information that follows was derived from various sources including federal, state, or local government and the private sector. The information collected is based on 8 key categories for both current and historical trends: bankruptcy filings, businesses, community development fees and permit issuances, employment, environmental services tonnage data, residential sales and foreclosures, local revenues, and taxable sales. Section II of the document provides a table of key observations for both current and historical economic indicators. For current economic indicators, observations are given a rating of positive, neutral, or negative based on their impact to the economic environment. Section III of the document provides overview of the economic indicator categories with various graphs. The section is divided into two sections: current and historical economic indicators. Office of Management and Budget Page 2

Fauquier County Economic Indicators II. Trends and Analysis A. Current Economic Indicators The following table displays key observations in the review of current economic indicators. The trend for each key indicator listed below is rated by one of the following symbols: Positive trends observed; can be an indicator of market expansion - Neutral trends observed; changes can be an indicator of decline or growth Negative trends observed; can be an indicator of market contraction Category Indicator Trend Comments Community Development Community Development Community development fees Building & new residential construction permits Employment Unemployment rate - Employment Environmental Services Environmental Services Local Revenue Residential Housing Market Residential Housing Market Residential Housing Market Residential Housing Market Unemployment insurance claims - Community development fees remained relatively flat through the first quarter of FY 2013. The number of new residential construction permits continues to improve. Building permits for the first quarter of FY 2013 increased by 4% over the same period of FY 2012. The County’s unemployment rate remains one of the lowest in the State at 4.5% in August 2012 and the fifth lowest overall. September marked the lowest month of initial claims since the start of the recession. Continued claims remain stable. Landfill tonnage - Landfill tonnage remains stable. Recycling tonnage - County sales tax collections Days houses are on market Median sales price Foreclosures and short sale listings Number of homes sold - - Recycling tonnage remains stable with continued signs of slow construction and demolition recycling growth. Sales tax collections continue to rise in comparison to the same month of the prior year. August 2012 marked the 23 rd straight month of increase by month over the prior year. While the average number of days houses are on the market has decline throughout most of 2012 for the County, the County’s average is higher than other neighboring jurisdictions. Median home sale prices continue to improve, trending closer to $300,000. Foreclosure and short sale listings remain stable at a level lower than the highs of the recession. The number of home sales has stabilized to pre-recession levels with marked improvement since January. The number of homes sold has risen over 75 per month since the spring, which is highest average since the beginning of the recession or during the first-time homebuyer tax credit period. Office of Management and Budget Page 3

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