Market Opportunities for African Agriculture - International Food ...

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LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Some basic facts about Sub-Saharan Africa....................................................... 3 Table 2: World and Sub-Saharan countries total and agricultural exports, 1981-2000.... 7 Table 3: Composition of exports from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1980, 1990, and 1997 ........ 9 Table 4: World and SSA exports of agriculture by major product categories................ 10 Table 5: Sub-Saharan African (SSA) major agricultural export commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................................... 12 Table 6: Sub-Saharan African (SSA) major agricultural import commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................................... 13 Table 7: Export of fish and fishery products from SSA: 1981-2000.............................. 21 Table 8: Summary of food safety restrictions of fish exports to the European Union ... 23 Table 9: Value of cut flower exports to the EU by top 12 countries (Real a million US dollars)................................................................................ 26 Table 10: Export of cut flowers and foliage from Kenya and Uganda by volume ('000 tons)......................................................................................................... 26 Table 11: Comparison of capital and operating costs of floriculture between Uganda and other competing countries ......................................................................... 28 Table 12: Sub-Saharan African major food crop demand and supply -- 1996-2000 annual average.................................................................................................. 31 Table 13: Ratio of wholesale maize prices to import parity price: 1994-2002................. 32 Table 14: Baseline projection of meat and cereal production, demand and net imports in Sub Saharan Africa ..................................................................................... 35 Table 15: Summary of projected annual growth rate of meat, maize and all cereal production, and demand in Sub-Saharan Africa .............................................. 36 Table 16: Description of the world CGE model’s scenarios ............................................ 44 Table 17: Agricultural growth scenarios: Sub-Saharan Africa macro results .................. 45 Table 18: Agricultural growth scenarios: Sub-Saharan Africa sector results................... 46 Table 19: Multipliers of the world CGE model simulations............................................. 48 Table 20: Change in SSA Land Returns and Wage Rate -- Normalized by consumer price index........................................................................................................ 53 Table 21: Comparison of the IMPACT and CGE model results ...................................... 58 iii
LIST OF APPENDIX TABLES Appendix I Table 1: East African major agricultural export commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................ 69 Appendix I Table 2: East African major agricultural import commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................ 70 Appendix I Table 3: West African major agricultural export commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................ 71 Appendix I Table 4: West African major agricultural import commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................ 72 Appendix I Table 5: Southern African major agricultural export commodities 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................ 73 Appendix I Table 6 Southern African major agricultural import commodities, 1996-2000 annual average ............................................................ 74 Appendix I Table 7: Baseline projection of meat and cereal production, demand and net imports in the four Sub-Saharan African regions............. 75 Appendix I Table 8: Projected annual growth rate of meat, maize and all cereal production, and demand in northern Sub-Saharan Africa ............ 76 Appendix I Table 9: Projected annual growth rate of meat, maize and all cereal production, and demand in central and western Sub-Saharan Africa ............................................................................................ 77 Appendix I Table 10: Projected annual growth rate of meat, maize and all cereal production, and demand in Southern Sub-Saharan Africa............ 78 Appendix I Table 11: Projected annual growth rate of meat, maize and all cereal production, and demand in eastern Sub-Saharan Africa............... 79 Appendix I Table 12: Agricultural growth scenarios: Southern Africa macro results ..... 80 Appendix I Table 13: Agricultural growth scenarios: Mozambique macro results..... 81 Appendix I Table 14: Agricultural growth scenarios: Uganda macro results .............. 82 Appendix I Table 15: Agricultural growth scenarios: southern Africa sector results ...... 83 Appendix I Table 16: Agricultural growth scenarios: Mozambique sector results .......... 84 Appendix I Table 17: Agricultural growth scenarios: Uganda sector results................... 85 Appendix II Table 1: Agricultural exports from Mozambique, 1981-2000 .................... 87 Appendix II Table 2: Producer and export Prices of Cashew Nuts in Nampula, Mozambique, 1996-1999 .............................................................. 89 Appendix II Table 3: Agricultural exports from Uganda, 1981-2000............................. 92 Appendix II Table 4: Agricultural exports from Kenya, 1981-2000............................... 98 Appendix II Table 5: Change in Kenya’s value of fish exports, 1996-2000 ................. 102 iv
Page 1 and 2: DSGD DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1 MARKET
Page 3: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We wish to thank t
Page 8 and 9: LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Monthly a
Page 10 and 11: imports 25 percent of its food grai
Page 13 and 14: MARKET OPPORTUNITIES FOR AFRICAN AG
Page 15 and 16: Table 1—Some basic facts about Su
Page 17 and 18: We begin with a review of broad tre
Page 19 and 20: Table 2—World and Sub-Saharan cou
Page 21 and 22: Table 3—Composition of exports fr
Page 23 and 24: This is mainly because of a signifi
Page 25 and 26: Staples Non-traditional Traditional
Page 27 and 28: impact on export earnings and incom
Page 29 and 30: ooms of the 1970s, but the trends f
Page 31 and 32: produced by smallholders, resulting
Page 33 and 34: Table 7—Export of fish and fisher
Page 35 and 36: Table 8—Summary of food safety re
Page 37 and 38: flowers and foliage to the EU. The
Page 39 and 40: The emergence and growth of the Ken
Page 41 and 42: SUMMARY Currently, the agricultural
Page 43 and 44: Table 12—Sub-Saharan African majo
Page 45 and 46: Besides the demand-side constraint,
Page 47 and 48: percent. However, because rapid gro
Page 49 and 50: pace, by 4.15 percent per year thro
Page 51 and 52: equivalent to 9 to 11 percent of ma
Page 53 and 54: esult in increased imports of lives
Page 55 and 56: this study is to evaluate African c
Page 57 and 58:
In this scenario, where non-traditi
Page 59 and 60:
more employment opportunities for u
Page 61 and 62:
of SSA (4 percent). No additional p
Page 63 and 64:
d. Combining high growth livestock
Page 65 and 66:
output (Table 20). Because the chan
Page 67 and 68:
This increase in TFP in the transpo
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scenarios, we find that some countr
Page 71 and 72:
Per capita annual growth of cereal
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Figure 3—Impact of TFP growth on
Page 75 and 76:
too long to make a significant cont
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particularly important, and better
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Franco, M., and R. Godoy. 1993. “
Page 81 and 82:
Staples Non-traditional Traditional
Page 83 and 84:
Page 85 and 86:
Page 87 and 88:
Appendix I Table 7—Baseline Proje
Page 89 and 90:
Appendix I Table 9—Projected annu
Page 91 and 92:
Appendix I Table 11—Projected ann
Page 93 and 94:
Appendix I Table 13—Agricultural
Page 95 and 96:
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Appendix II Table 1—Agricultural
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and in 1998 Mozambique contributed
Page 103 and 104:
from 56.5 percent in 1981-83 to 40.
Page 105 and 106:
Uganda has distinct competitive adv
Page 107 and 108:
Victoria and their Natural Carrying
Page 109 and 110:
Macroeconomic Policies In 1991, tax
Page 111 and 112:
Appendix II Table 4—Agricultural
Page 113 and 114:
inappropriate seeds and fertilizers
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i.e. upgrading equipments and labor
Page 117 and 118:
9. Ghana 10. Guinea 11. Guinea-Biss
Page 119:
21. Sugar 22. Processed food produc
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