With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

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12,800 years ago Last great "cold snap" of the ice age, known as the Younger Dryas era, is triggered by emptying glacial lake in North America and continues for around 1,300 years before ending very abruptly 8,200 years ago Abrupt and mysterious return to ice-age conditions for several hundred years, followed by warm and stable Holocene era 8,000 years ago Storegga landslip in North Sea, probably triggered by methane clathrate releases that also bolster the warm era 5,500 years ago Sudden aridification of the Sahara 4,200 years ago Another bout of aridification, concentrated in the Middle East, causes widespread collapse of civilizations 1,200 to 900 years ago Medieval warm period in the Northern Hemisphere; megadroughts in North America 700 to 150 years ago Little ice age in the Northern Hemisphere, peaking in the 1690s 1896 Svante Arrhenius calculates how rising carbon dioxide levels will raise global temperatures 1938 Guy Callendar provides first evidence of rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, but findings ignored 1958 Charles Keeling begins continuous monitoring program that reveals rapidly rising carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
1970s Beginning of strong global warming that has persisted ever since, almost certainly attributable to fast-rising carbon dioxide emissions, accompanied by shift in state of key climate oscillations such as El Nino and the Arctic Oscillation, and increased melting of the Greenland ice sheet Early 1980s Shocking discovery of Antarctic ozone hole brings new fears of human influence on global atmosphere 1988 Global warming becomes a front-page issue after Jim Hansen's presentations in Washington, D.C., during U.S. heat wave 1992 Governments of the world attending Earth Summit promise to prevent "dangerous climate change" but fail to act decisively 1999 Warmest year on record, and probably for thousands of years, accompanied by strong El Nino and exceptionally "wild weather," especially in the tropics; major carbon releases from burning peat swamps in Borneo 2001 Government of Tuvalu, in the South Pacific, signs deal for New Zealand to take refugees as its islands disappear beneath rising sea levels 2003 European heat wave—later described as the first extreme- weather event attributable to man-made global warming—kills more than 30,000; a third of the world is reported as being at risk of drought: twice as much as in the 1970s 2005 Evidence of potential "positive feedbacks" accumulates with exceptional hurricane season in the Atlantic, reports of melting Siberian permafrost, possible slowing of ocean conveyor, escalating loss of Arctic sea ice, and faster glacial flow on Greenland
Page 1 and 2: WITH SPEED AND VIOLENCE
Page 3 and 4: We are on the precipice of climate
Page 5: CHRONOLOGY OF CLIMATE CHANGE 5 bill
Page 9 and 10: James Croll, a nineteenth-century S
Page 11 and 12: PREFACE: THE CHIMNEY The Greenland
Page 13 and 14: But even as he gazed on these dynam
Page 15 and 16: INTRODUCTION Some environmental sto
Page 17 and 18: Type II climate change became, in t
Page 19 and 20: eally dire times ahead. Having a da
Page 21 and 22: with his wife gone, he had few dist
Page 23 and 24: more than 80 percent for dark ocean
Page 25 and 26: climates, especially as regards the
Page 27 and 28: y nature. By the late 1960s he had
Page 29 and 30: TURNING UP THE HEAT A skeptic's gui
Page 31 and 32: These findings alone should be enou
Page 33 and 34: 1970s readings at night should be r
Page 35 and 36: ecause they can happen by chance; b
Page 37 and 38: The current climate models concur w
Page 39 and 40: early 2005: "By ignoring these outl
Page 41 and 42: whole communities. A thousand peopl
Page 43 and 44: drought regions and droughts to nor
Page 45 and 46: The big new discovery is that plane
Page 47 and 48: Similar switchback temperature chan
Page 49 and 50: fulfill the expectations of climate
Page 51 and 52: THE WATCHTOWER Keeping climate vigi
Page 53 and 54: etreated about 3 miles back up the
Page 55 and 56: for meat, but will sink their teeth
Page 57 and 58:
and birds. But the very highest con
Page 59 and 60:
on summer vacation from chairing an
Page 61 and 62:
There is another driver for the mel
Page 63 and 64:
ON THE SLIPPERY SLOPE Greenland is
Page 65 and 66:
For many centuries these great ice
Page 67 and 68:
lasted for a decade or more now," h
Page 69 and 70:
esults of a detailed satellite rada
Page 71 and 72:
things go wrong, it could just be d
Page 73 and 74:
The demise of the Larsen B ice shel
Page 75 and 76:
slab of ice the size of Spain at th
Page 77 and 78:
At a time when everyone else saw An
Page 79 and 80:
glaciers were responding to a rapid
Page 81 and 82:
The East Antarctic ice sheet is the
Page 83 and 84:
RISING TIDES Saying "toodle-oo" to
Page 85 and 86:
a lagoon, with the open ocean on th
Page 87 and 88:
How could such a thing have happene
Page 89 and 90:
III. RIDING THE CARBON CYCLE IN THE
Page 91 and 92:
some extent, adapted to drought. Bu
Page 93 and 94:
ains returned. The forest may recov
Page 95 and 96:
process ultimately drives winter st
Page 97 and 98:
vegetation that had fallen into the
Page 99 and 100:
Every year, farmers continue burnin
Page 101 and 102:
annual emissions from power plants,
Page 103 and 104:
escaped from western European fores
Page 105 and 106:
many anticipated. And many believe
Page 107 and 108:
Perhaps understandably, such studie
Page 109 and 110:
The entire western Siberian peat bo
Page 111 and 112:
freezing over in winter. And Euan N
Page 113 and 114:
character: it has passed to the pla
Page 115 and 116:
movements of the tree line; examini
Page 117 and 118:
There is nothing unusual about Stor
Page 119 and 120:
along the melting-point isotherm is
Page 121 and 122:
carbon dioxide seems to seesaw betw
Page 123 and 124:
"Corals could be rare on the tropic
Page 125 and 126:
THE WINDS OF CHANGE Tsunamis, megaf
Page 127 and 128:
ut even so, they could not have del
Page 129 and 130:
cattle—and primates. And among th
Page 131 and 132:
Meanwhile, pockmarks are turning up
Page 133 and 134:
een enough, he said, to melt clathr
Page 135 and 136:
The prognosis, Mienert says, is wor
Page 137 and 138:
also releases more energy, so event
Page 139 and 140:
absorbed. But that is just an avera
Page 141 and 142:
darker landscape will be more than
Page 143 and 144:
the temperature range. It showed a
Page 145 and 146:
absence—are most pronounced in de
Page 147 and 148:
Murphy took a standard climate mode
Page 149 and 150:
We can see evidence of this already
Page 151 and 152:
more sober colleagues registered ag
Page 153 and 154:
though, have some scattering effect
Page 155 and 156:
A BILLION FIRES How brown haze coul
Page 157 and 158:
now refuse to discuss the subject w
Page 159 and 160:
importance for a country entirely d
Page 161 and 162:
amounts of heat into the upper atmo
Page 163 and 164:
called oxidation. To take one examp
Page 165 and 166:
ecause the smog itself prevents ult
Page 167 and 168:
ICE AGES AND SOLAR PULSES: GOLDILOC
Page 169 and 170:
enough to freeze the carbon dioxide
Page 171 and 172:
system called Gaia. It may also exp
Page 173 and 174:
in ice sheets forming in the Northe
Page 175 and 176:
enormous hippopotami and gigantic c
Page 177 and 178:
Astronomical forces, he discovered,
Page 179 and 180:
In fact it turned out that Croll wa
Page 181 and 182:
exactly what limited it. Why, after
Page 183 and 184:
There may have been other feedbacks
Page 185 and 186:
gradually raising temperatures. The
Page 187 and 188:
collaborator Gerard Bond, a man a d
Page 189 and 190:
had done the same thing around Anta
Page 191 and 192:
feature in keeping the region warm,
Page 193 and 194:
But all this is models. What eviden
Page 195 and 196:
modelers feared. But there did seem
Page 197 and 198:
Then the unthinkable happened: the
Page 199 and 200:
Richard Alley, who was there handli
Page 201 and 202:
The vast inrush of cold freshwater
Page 203 and 204:
It took about 1,300 years before th
Page 205 and 206:
THE PULSE How the sun makes climate
Page 207 and 208:
If the Viking settlers had followed
Page 209 and 210:
period than it was in the early twe
Page 211 and 212:
perplexing that such a widespread e
Page 213 and 214:
What climatic events would send vas
Page 215 and 216:
event, followed by five less and le
Page 217 and 218:
Bond came up trumps again. The evid
Page 219 and 220:
TROPICAL HEAT THE FALL The end of A
Page 221 and 222:
filled mostly by leaking wadis in t
Page 223 and 224:
sun sufficient to reduce temperatur
Page 225 and 226:
idea, with plenty of adherents. Rei
Page 227 and 228:
Dust Bowl years. In 2002, it fell t
Page 229 and 230:
some places. But the rain-bearing w
Page 231 and 232:
University, two fifths of the dust
Page 233 and 234:
TROPICAL HIGH Why an ice man is rew
Page 235 and 236:
horseback onto the high slopes of t
Page 237 and 238:
ago and then moved north, becoming
Page 239 and 240:
in ice in Alaska. It is already pro
Page 241 and 242:
Mesopotamia. Its rule extended all
Page 243 and 244:
monsoon region of the Himalayas, to
Page 245 and 246:
A CHUNK OF CORAL Probing the hidden
Page 247 and 248:
heat energy than the entire atmosph
Page 249 and 250:
Through isotopic analysis, Schrag e
Page 251 and 252:
Nina events will still happen occas
Page 253 and 254:
how they possibly worked it out." P
Page 255 and 256:
famine has fallen. There are many r
Page 257 and 258:
snow on the Tibetan plateau in spri
Page 259 and 260:
AT THE MILLENNIUM: THE HEAT WAVE Th
Page 261 and 262:
temperatures and the start of the h
Page 263 and 264:
THE HOCKEY STICK Why now really is
Page 265 and 266:
dismissing Inhofe as "the single la
Page 267 and 268:
twentieth-century levels, and this
Page 270 and 271:
HURRICANE SEASON Raising the storm
Page 272 and 273:
account an increasing coastal popul
Page 274 and 275:
analysis, Gray argues, the hurrican
Page 276 and 277:
that "the contention that hurricane
Page 278 and 279:
But even if we don't yet see "super
Page 280 and 281:
OZONE HOLES IN THE GREENHOUSE Why m
Page 282 and 283:
Cambridge in 1984 to finish his pap
Page 284 and 285:
atmosphere is not quite so stable a
Page 286 and 287:
INEVITABLE SURPRISES: THE DANCE The
Page 288 and 289:
But that doesn't mean that the Arct
Page 290 and 291:
Manchester United wouldn't be playi
Page 292 and 293:
NEW HORIZONS Feedbacks from the str
Page 294 and 295:
The idea that the South may lead in
Page 296 and 297:
Like El Nino, the Arctic Oscillatio
Page 298 and 299:
has seen air temperatures rise by 5
Page 300 and 301:
The stratosphere and its influence
Page 302 and 303:
CONCLUSION: ANOTHER PLANET Over the
Page 304 and 305:
ocean floor. Until it stops. Who kn
Page 306 and 307:
In the past, if we got things wrong
Page 308 and 309:
consensus, especially in Europe, th
Page 310 and 311:
the air will flatten out. Reaching
Page 312 and 313:
view. "It makes a lot of sense to t
Page 314 and 315:
While the U.S. and Australia emit a
Page 316 and 317:
improving energy efficiency in buil
Page 318 and 319:
emissions from the projected 15.4 b
Page 320 and 321:
economist William Nordhaus suggests
Page 322 and 323:
climate change that this book has c
Page 324 and 325:
Carbon cycle The natural exchange o
Page 326 and 327:
Little ice age The period from the
Page 328 and 329:
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Where to start? In
Page 330 and 331:
superseded during 2007 by the Fourt
Page 332 and 333:
12. WILD FIRES OF B ORNEO I visited
Page 334 and 335:
22. THE BIG FREEZE The best read on
Page 336:
34. H URRICANE SEASON I spoke to Co
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With Speed and Violence Fred Pearce - Global Commons Institute

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