Hydromet monitoring and warning in the Italian Civil ... - GFDRR

Hydromet monitoring and warning in the
Italian Civil Protection Department
Paola Pagliara and Luigi D’Angelo
March 12, 2012 -World Bank, Washington DC

Hydraulic and hydrogeological risk
Tevere
Val Pola
Sarno
Quiliano creek

HAZARD
THE RISK
EQUATION
ESPOSURE
VULNERABILITY
HAZARD ESPOSURE VULNERABILITY
The probability that a phenomenon
has to occur in a given period of time
in a given area
People and things are
likely to be affected by
the event
A measure of the extent to which a community,
structure, service or geographical area is likely
to be damaged or disrupted, on account of its
nature or location, by the impact of a particular
disaster hazard

NO-REAL time
REAL time
Hydraulic and hydrogeological risk
MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENT/ BASIN AUTHORITIES
D.Lgs.152/2006 Environmental code R1: Low Risk (low social and economic damages).
CIVIL PROTECTION DEPARTMENT/ REGIONS
Dir.P.C.M. 27/02/2004
R2: Medium Risk (low damage to buildings, infrastructures
and cultural heritage without the involvement of persons).
R3: High Risk (Possible damage to persons, buildings and
infrastuctures with interruption of social-economic
activities and relevant damages to the environment).
R4: Very High Risk (Possible loss of human lives, serious
damages to buildinds, infrustructure, environment and
destruction of social-econimic activities).
National early warning system
Centres for forecasting and survaillance
Ordinary Criticity (flooding of basements, temporary and punctual traffic
problems near small watershed due to surface runoff phenomena, accidental
loss of life)
Moderate Criticity (temporary and punctual traffic problems, damages to
individual buildings or to small towns affected by slopes instability, damages to
agricultural activities, industrial and residential areas situated in floodplains,
accidental loss of life and possible widespread damage to people)
High Criticity (damages to agricultural activities, industrial and residential areas
situated near rivers and streams, damage or destruction of towns, possible loss
of life or serious injury to people)
Dir. 2007/60/CE D.Lgs.49/2010

Hazard and risk maps associated to
different return periods:
• Tr = 50,
• Tr= 200,
• Tr= 500
CIVIL PROTECTION
PLANS
Warning messages for events
associated to different return periods:
• Tr < 5,
• 5

The early warning system
Rainfall field
multifractal
disaggregation
GCM-ECMWF
25 Km / 72 - 6
COSMO-I7
7-2.8 Km / 48 - 3
G.I.S.
Warning!!
Starting emergency procedures

The national early warning system
legal framework
Italian Prime Minister Directive (27 Feb. 2004):
“Operational Guidelines for the organizational and functional handling of the
national and regional warning system on the hydro-geological and hydraulic
risk for the purposes of the Civil Protection”.
It defines:
is provided by DCP and Regions by the “Centri Funzionali” National
Network, along with the “Expert centers” involved in hazard assessment and
surveillance activities….
“Centro Funzionale” = Centre for Forecasting and Surveillance of
effects to support the civil protection Authority decisions (CFSE)
“Centro di Competenza” = Centre for Technological and Scientific
services, development and transfer (CTS)

The Italian early warning system – Dir.P.C.M.27/02/2004
CENTRES FOR FORECASTING AND SURVAILLANCE NETWORK
Announcement, monitoring and survaillance of risk
scenarios in real time
Declaration of the expected severity levels
Warning activation of operative response in real time at
different territorial levels
2 phases
1. FORECAST
2. MONITORING AND
SURVAILLANCE
2 areas
1. METEOROLOGICAL
2. HYDROGEOLOGICAL
AND HYDRAULIC

Centre for Technological and Scientific services development and transfer:
they are an important part of the national early warning system

Italian Civil Protection Department
The Italian Early Warning System
• Each Regional Center of Civil
Protection (CF) has the
responsability of meteohydrological
alerts in its
territory
• Coordination by the National
Department of Civil
Protection
• Competence centers
(National meteorological
service, Italian Space Agency
- ASI, University, Cima…)
Sharing, in real-time, Risk Scenarios

Italian Civil Protection Department
Real-time Risk Assessment & Prediction
Quasi-static information
Real-time information
R = E x V x H
• Quasi-static information: element at risks, hazard maps, etc.
• Medium and short range weather forecast
• Hydro-meteorological monitoring
• Ground effects prediction (flood, soilslip, wild fire)
• Uncertainty estimation and measure

Italian Civil Protection Department
DEWETRA is not only a way to share Data and
Model Results, but is an Operational platform to
share Standing Operating Procedures (SOPs) and
Best Practices

RT STATION OBSERVATIONS
Italian Civil Protection Department
AMC DA
NWP
HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER: INPUTS

TEMPERATURE
RAINFALL
SWE
HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER:
DATA SPATIALIZATION
METHODS

STREAM FLOW FORECASTS
FLOOD WAVE MONITORING
HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER:
FORECASTS &
MONITORING

Italian Civil Protection Department
HAVING IT ALL
TOGETHER:
ELEMENTS at RISK &
VULNERABILITY
INTEROPERABILITY
Building in real-time Risk Scenarios
RT STATIONS
Model Forecasts
Historic Floods -
UPDATE
Risk Assessment
Elements at Risk

REAL TIME assessment
Announcement,
monitoring and
survaillance of risk
scenarios
Declaration of the
expected criticity levels
Warning activation of
operative response in real
time at different territorial
levels
Civil Protection plans

Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri – Dipartimento della protezione civile
EMERGENCY PLANNING OPERATIONAL PHASES
ALERT THRESHOLDS
Hydrogeologic and hydraulic event
- Bulletin: forecast of ordinary critic situation
for storm probability.
- Warning for moderate critic situation.
- Ordinary event in progress.
- Overtaken threshold of the local alert
system on the critical sites monitored by the
control sites team (presidium).
- Warning for very critic situation
- Event with a moderate condition in progress
- Overtaken threshold of the local alert
system on the critical sites monitored by the
control sites team (presidium).
- Event with very critic situation in progress
- Overtaken threshold of the local alert
system on the critical sites monitored by the
control sites team (presidium).
OPERATIONAL
PHASES
PRE-ALERT
ALERT
PREALARM
ALARM
(EMERGENCY)
ACTIONS
The Mayor keeps in touch with the
Prefecture and the local Operations Centres
of the Province and the Region..
On site monitoring activation (presidium)
under the coordination of the responsible
for the technical and planning support
function.
Activation of the Operations Centre with a
complete configuration. Possible
evacuation.
Rescue and evacuation.

Hydraulic and hydrogeological risk
Mediterranean storms
Tuscany
Liguria
140mm/1h
520mm/8h
25/10/2011
Genoa
120mm/1h
222mm/3h
400mm/2days
05/11/2011

Flash Flood Oct. 25 th , 2011
Cinque Terre, Vara and Magra Basins

Predicted rainfall depth for Oct. 25 ° 00 UTC - 12 UTC Predicted rainfall depth for Oct. 25 ° 12 UTC - 24
UTC
Predicted rainfall depth for Oct. 12 ° 00 UTC - 24 UTC

Public bulletin: www.protezionecivile.gov.it

From NATIONAL level To REGIONAL level
Moderate severity (temporary and punctual traffic
problems, damages to individual buildings or to small towns
affected by slopes instability, damages to agricultural
activities, industrial and residential areas situated in
floodplains, accidental loss of life and possible widespread
damage to people)
High severity (damages to agricultural activities, industrial
and residential areas situated near rivers and streams,
damage or destruction of towns, possible loss of life or
serious injury to people)

From REGIONAL level To LOCAL level

efore
10 victims
Major flooding in:
• Monterosso
• Vernazza
• Brugnato
• Borghetto Vara
• Ameglia and Arcola
• Aulla and Pontermoli
• Many landslides Brugnato, Borghetto
Vara, Pignone Monterosso, Vernazza;
after
• 23 interrupted roads (250 km)
• Damage to houses, shops, businesses,
essential services such as power lines,
gas pipes, telephone lines, public
transport and private.
• Block of 4 days of the highway between
La Spezia and Sestri Levante.
• Closing of the railway line for 4 days.
• Collapse of the arch of the bridge
Colombiera.

Flash Flood Nov. 4th, 2011
Genoa

Public bulletin: www.protezionecivile.gov.it

From NATIONAL level To REGIONAL level
High severity (damages to agricultural activities, industrial
and residential areas situated near rivers and streams,
damage or destruction of towns, possible loss of life or
serious injury to people)

From REGIONAL level To LOCAL level

Predicted rainfall depth for Nov. 2 nd 00 UTC - 12 UTC
Predicted rainfall depth for Nov. 2 nd 12 UTC - 24 UTC
Predicted rainfall depth for Nov. 2 ° 00 UTC - 24 UTC

04/11/2011 - 12.00 UTC;
MSG IR
05/11/2011 - 12.00 UTC; MSG canale IR + canale IR
Enhanced + Z500 hPa +T500 hPa
06/11/2011 - 12.00 UTC; MSG canale IR + canale IR
Enhanced + Z500 hPa +T500 hPa

Rainfall aggregation
(catchments basis)
Total rainfall depth observed
during the entire event

6 victims
Major flooding in Genoa
Fereggiano Brook, Sturla Creek,
Bisagno Creek

INFORMATION DISSEMINATION
After the event
Information systems provided by the evacuation plan - “warning”
and “alarm” phases -
‣ handing out of a form with the rules to follow during warning and
alarm phases;
‣ brief messages spread by local radio and TV;
‣ use of loud-speakers to spread messages;
‣ intermittent siren wailing to let everybody know they are in the
warning phase and continuous siren wailing for the alarm phase;
‣ warning of the beginning of the alarm phase from door to door,
provided by local bodies involved in civil protection activities.
Lessons learnt
- The spread of information about the possible risk is necessary to the
growth of people consciousness of the risks related to phenomena
- The organisation of Committee of citizens allows knowing, in real time,
people needs and their priorities.

Present and future
The plan will be effective only if people have the perception of
the hazards which involve their territory.
This aim can be reached considering the following concepts:
Acceptable risk – Resilience

Italian Civil Protection Department
International Cooperation between
Italian Department of Civil Protection
and the General Directorate for Civil
Emergency, Ministry of Interior –
Republic of Albania
Program for Prediction, Prevention and
Mitigation of Forest Fire and Flood risk in
Albania

Italian Civil Protection Department
Early Warning System for Floods Application: Buna + Drin basins (Albania)
Buna
Drin

Italian Civil Protection Department
Real time Discharge forecast system
An example from an Italian basin

Italian Civil Protection Department
RApid mapPIng of Damages – RAPID - Using Italia Space
Agency's Opera Project tools applied to Cosmo-Skymed
imagery: The flooding of the plain of Skodar (Albania) from the
Buna river, Jan 2010
Delivered products:
-Fast-ready flood maps
-Detailed flood maps
-Elements at risk
-Vulnerability map
-Damage maps

Valtellina, 1987 Soverato, 2000
Sarno, 1998
Piemonte, 1994
Po, 2000
centrofunzionale.idro@protezionecivile.it