Houston-Galveston Area Council 2025 Regional Growth Forecast ...

Houston-Galveston Area Council
2025 Regional Growth Forecast
The
2025
Regional
Growth Forecast
is a long-range
forecast of population,
households, and employment
for the Houston-Galveston
Metropolitan Area.

Board Members of the Houston-Galveston Area Council 2003
Chair
Hon. Andy Meyers
Commissioner
Fort Bend County
Chair Elect
Hon. Bill Welch
Councilman
City of Pasadena
Vice Chair
Hon. Greg Westmoreland
County Judge
Matagorda County
Board Members
Hon. Carolyn C. Bilski
County Judge
Austin County
Hon. James Barnett, Jr.
Mayor
City of Freeport
Home Rule Cities
Hon. Craig Doyal
Commissioner
Montgomery County
Hon. Robert Eckels
County Judge
Harris County
Hon. Chuck Engelken, Jr.
Councilperson
City of La Porte
Hon. Jerry Ericsson
Councilman
City of Friendswood
Hon. Todd Fontenot
Commissioner
Liberty County
Hon. B. J. Gaines, Jr.
Commissioner
Walker County
Hon. Pat George
Council Member
City of Conroe
Hon. Darrell Gertson
Commissioner
Colorado County
Hon. Jack Harris
Commissioner
Brazoria County
Hon. Terry Henley
Alderman
City of Meadows Place
General Law Cities
Hon. Eddie Janek
Commissioner
Galveston County
Hon. Joe Jaworski
Councilman
City of Galveston
Hon. Hamid Kantara
Councilman
City of League City
Hon. Bert Keller
Council Member
City of Houston
Hon. Chris King
Commissioner
Wharton County
Hon. Linson Landrum, Jr.
Commissioner
City of Texas City
Hon. El Franco Lee
Commissioner
Harris County
Hon. Denton McDugle
Councilman
City of Deer Park
Hon. Kay Mudd
Councilwoman
City of Iowa Colony
General Law City
Hon. Donald Murray
Councilman
City of Baytown
Hon. Kerry Neves
Councilman
City of Dickinson
Home Rule City
Hon. Owen Ralston
County Judge
Waller County
Hon. Tom Reid
Mayor
City of Pearland
Hon. Eunice Reiter
Councilwoman
City of Missouri City
Hon. Peggy Smith
Trustee
Huntsville ISD
Hon. Steed Smith
Council Member
City of Huntsville
Hon. James Thompson
Councilman
City of Sugar Land
Hon. Mike Tracy
Councilman
City of Lake Jackson
Hon. Bill Wallace
Commissioner
Chambers County
Hon. Addie Wiseman
Council Member
City of Houston

OVERVIEW: THE 2025 REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST
Since 1990, the Houston Area has experienced the
sixth largest population increase among U.S. metro
areas, nearly one million people. According to the
Houston-Galveston Area Council’s 2025 Regional
Growth Forecast, this strong growth will continue.
The metro area is expected to grow by another
three million people in the next 25 years, reaching
a population of more than 7.6 million in 2025.
H-GAC is responsible for
producing Regional
Transportation Plans (RTP)
for the Houston-Galveston
H-GAC staff prepared this
forecast using state-of-theart
modeling techniques to
better account for the way
demographic, economic and
land use factors shape the
region's growth. H-GAC also
enhanced its capabilities to
quickly integrate information
about new development into
its forecasting process.
In addition to being the primary
demographic input into
H-GAC's 2025 Regional
Transportation Plan (RTP) 1 ,
the 2025 Regional Growth
Forecast will also benefit
other public and private sector
long-range planning
efforts. Along with the summary
information presented
in this document, more
detailed forecast data is also
available. More information
on forecast data products can
be obtained from H-GAC's
web site, www.h-gac.com, or
by calling (713) 627-3200.
metropolitan area.
1 For a complete review of the region's transportation plan, see the H-GAC 2025 RTP.
2

How Much Growth?
H-GAC has developed two forecast scenarios to provide alternatives for policy makers to use in planning.
The Moderate Scenario assumes growth that parallels the economic trends of the 1990s. The
Aggressive Scenario assumes increased growth in the region's energy sector. H-GAC is using the
Aggressive Scenario for its Regional Transportation Plan.
According to the Aggressive Scenario,
by the year 2025, the Houston metro
area will add:
Estimated Growth in the Aggressive Scenario
· 1.3 million new jobs
· 3 million new people
· 1 million new households
In terms of population, the Houston metro
area is currently the country's tenth
largest, with over 4.6 million persons.
Population of Selected U.S. Metropolitan Areas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, April 2000 CMSA Rankings
With an additional 3 million persons, the Houston metro area would have a population comparable
to the current size of the Washington, D.C. or San Francisco metropolitan areas.
3

How is Future Growth Shared Among the Eight Counties?
The 2025 Regional Growth Forecast reflects growth spurred by redevelopment in areas that are
already heavily urbanized, along with continued new development in the region's suburban areas.
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)
The forecast projects that, by 2025:
· Metro area population will grow by 64 percent.
· Fort Bend and Montgomery counties will be the fastest growing, with population
increases of over 100 percent.
· Harris County will have the greatest absolute increase, growing by nearly
2 million people.
· Even the region's slowest growing counties will experience population increases
of more than 25 percent.
4

Population, Households, and Employment Growth
(In 1,000’s)
Population
Households
Employment
5
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)

Regional Growth Patterns
H-GAC’s forecast predicts a trend of strong suburban growth around a redeveloping urban center.
This is a continuation of a pattern that emerged in the late 1990s, as confirmed by the results of the
2000 Census. Substantial population and job growth are forecasted for the core urbanized areas.
However, 67 percent of the growth in households and 59 percent of job growth are projected to
occur outside Beltway 8.
35 Miles
25 Miles
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)
Sector Level Growth Comparisons
Forecasted numbers for the above areas are exclusive of each other.
During a 25-year period, a single group of fast-growing geographic sectors accounts for one-third of all
projected population growth.
Sector Level
Average
Annual Growth
(Persons Per Year)
Total Metro Area Population Growth
(Aggregate Growth for Groups of
Similarly Shaded Sectors)
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)
Total population and employment growth by geographic sector are shown in the maps on the
following page.
6

Total Population 2000 Total Population 2025
Total Employment 2000 Total Employment 2025
7
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)

Activity Centers
Forty-one percent (41%) of the region's employment is currently located in "activity centers," such
as the Houston Central Business District (CBD) or the Uptown/Galleria area. The Forecast shows a
6 percent decrease in the share of employment
located in the region's established activity centers.
This change indicates that employment is becoming
increasingly dispersed.
The Houston CBD is projected to experience a 16
percent employment increase during the next 25
years. As a group, well-established urban centers
(Uptown/Galleria, the Medical Center, and
Greenway Plaza) are expected to experience average
employment gains of about 25 percent.
Established centers located outside of the Beltway,
(i.e., Sugar Land, West Houston, and the Clear
Lake/Nasa area) are expected to see increases in
the 50 percent range. Employment in emerging centers
(i.e., the Woodlands and the Richmond/First
Colony area) is projected to double.
Regional Activity Centers
2000-2025 Top Employment Centers
(In 1,000’s)
8

Developing the Forecast
This forecast represents H-GAC's first full-scale, small-area forecasting effort using two new modeling
resources. The first resource is a regional econometric model acquired from Regional
Economic Models, Inc. (REMI). REMI is a nationally established model that considers the economic
interaction between the region as a whole and the rest of the nation. REMI also considers how
each county's demographic profile will change over time.
The second resource is the UrbanSim model, developed by the Center for Urban Simulation and
Policy Analysis at the University of Washington. UrbanSim is designed to help metropolitan
areas study interactions between land use and the transportation network.
Using the REMI model, H-GAC produced moderate
and aggressive county-level growth scenarios
for population, households, and
employment. During the second stage of the
forecasting process, H-GAC used the UrbanSim
model to allocate the county-level results to
smaller units of geography. UrbanSim simulated
the types of residential and commercial
land development patterns that would
emerge during a 25-year period.
The model placed "new" workers and "new" jobs in locations across the region based on patterns
of household income, job type, and the region's transportation network. UrbanSim also
incorporated a wide variety of other inputs that describe potential land use for small areas.
These include property databases from county appraisal districts, as well as information about
the region's physical features.
9

UrbanSim Land Use Data
UrbanSim divides the
region into 1000 x 1000
square foot "gridcells."
Information from a variety
of sources is used to
classify these gridcells into different land
development categories.
Public Review and Forecast Updates
The H-GAC Forecast Advisory Committee provided oversight throughout the process of developing
the 2025 Regional Growth Forecast. The committee is comprised of representatives from the
region's eight metropolitan counties who have expertise in analyzing demographic, economic, and
development trends. Before adoption, the forecast was made available for review and comment
by elected officials and the general public. The 2025 Regional Growth Forecast was presented to
and formally accepted by H-GAC's Board of Directors on May 20, 2003.
The current forecast is the result of an ongoing, data-intensive process that relies on representatives
from member governments sharing their local expertise and providing information and insight into the
trends that shape the region. H-GAC will produce regular updates to the forecast as information is
provided about new transportation infrastructure improvements, new residential, and commercial
development projects, or any constraints on future land use.
Updates to the forecast will be posted on H-GAC’s web site, www.h-gac.com.
10

11
2000 Houston Regional Analysis Zone (RAZ) Index Map

2000 Houston Regional Analysis Zone (RAZ) Index
Small Area Analysis
In order to analyze the growth anticipated in smaller geographical areas, the eight-county region has
been divided into 199 “Regional Analysis Zones” (RAZ). Forecast results at the RAZ-level are provided
in the following tables and maps.
Harris County
H-GAC will provide regular updates to these results as new small area data
becomes available.
12

Montgomery County
Galveston County
Waller County
Chambers County
Fort Bend County
Liberty County
Brazoria County
13

Population Distribution 2000
2000 and 2025 Population Distribution grouped by Regional
Analysis Zone (RAZ). RAZs are geographic units used for transportation
planning purposes. Inset shows the Harris County
area in greater detail.
Population Distribution 2025
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)
14

Household Distribution 2000
2000 and 2025 Household Distribution grouped by Regional
Analysis Zone (RAZ). RAZs are geographic units used for transportation
planning purposes. Inset shows the Harris County
area in greater detail.
Household Distribution 2025
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)
15

Employment Distribution 2000
2000 and 2025 Employment Distribution grouped by Regional
Analysis Zone (RAZ). RAZs are geographic units used for transportation
planning purposes. Inset shows the Harris County
area in greater detail.
Employment Distribution 2000
Source: H-GAC Regional Growth Forecast (Aggressive)
16

H-GAC Forecasting Staff
Jingke Chen, Senior Demographer/GIS Analyst
Thomas Coats, Senior Planner/Demographer/GIS Analyst
Richard DeBose, Forecasting Program Manager
Greg Deurdulian, Demographer/GIS Analyst
Todd Schmidt, Demographic Intern
Jeff Taebel, AICP, C&E Planning Manager
H-GAC Forecast Advisory Committee
Bala Balachandran
Admin. Manager, Long-Range Planning
City of Houston Planning and Development
J. Curtiss Brown, Jr.
Director of Community Services
Galveston County
Larry Buehler
Business Development and Retention
Brazoria County Partnership
Theresa DeBose
Senior Business Analyst
CenterPoint Energy
Perri L. D'Armond
Vice President of Development
Greater Fort Bend Economic Dev. District
Jesse Hegemeier, P.E.
County Engineer
Fort Bend County Engineer's Office
Steven Jennings
Executive Director
Harris County Central Technology Center
Mike Kubik
Director of Communications
Chambers County
Dennis Mabe
Appraisal Operations Specialist
Harris County Appraisal District
Pat Miller
Director of Property Transactions
Montgomery County Appraisal District
Madan Mangal
Division Manager
City of Houston Planning and Development
Carol Nixon, P.E.
District Director of Transportation Planning
Texas Department of Transportation
Chris Olavson
Senior Planning Manager
Parsons Brinckerhoff Quade & Douglas
Vincent L. Sanders
Sr. Transportation Systems Planner
Metropolitan Transit Authority
C.A. (Skip) Kasdorf III
Manager of Research
Greater Houston Partnership
Houston-Galveston Area Council
The preparation of this document was financed in part by grants from the Federal Highway Administration, the Federal Transit Administration, and the Texas Department of
Transportation. The contents of this report do not constitute a standard, specification or regulation. The policies, findings, and recommendations contained in this document do not
necessarily represent the views of the agencies identifed above.
17

Houston-Galveston Area Council
P.O. Box 22777
Houston, TX 77227-2777
www.h-gac.com

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Houston, Texas 77227-2777
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