Data Validation

ilr.uni.bonn.de

Data Validation

CAPRI

CAPRI

CAPRI-Dynaspat project

Data Validation

Jan Kubat (VUZE), Tomas Ratinger (IPTS), Adam Was (SGGW)

26-27 February 2007

Brussels

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

1


CAPRI

Introduction

CAPRI

• Partners from NMS

• Ex-post 1995-2004

• Baseline validation

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

2


CAPRI

Partners from NMS

CAPRI

• Dynaspat partners and subcontractors

– Czech Republic – VÚZE Prague

– Slovakia

–Poland

– Hungary

• Experts invited to join/ new members

– Slovenia

– Latvia

– Lithuania

– Romania

– Bulgaria

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

3


CAPRI

EX-post data validation

CAPRI

Ex-post data 1995-2004

Validation of CoCo and CAPREG data

– Sources of national data:

• Official statistics

• FADN data

• Expert knowledge (in few cases)

– Country level, NUTS-2 level

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

4


CAPRI

EX-post data validation

CAPRI

th. ha

LEVL POTA

2000

1800

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

YIELD OCER

kg/ha

10000

9000

90 91 92 93 94 95

8000

96 97 98 99 0 1 2

7000

years

NNRAWDAT NNCOMCON

6000

statPL

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0

90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2

years

NNRAWDAT NNCOMCON statPL

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

5


CAPRI

Ex-post validation

CAPRI

1975 -1998 1998 - present

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

6


CAPRI

Ex-post validation

CAPRI

• Limited availability of data from official

sources.

• Difficult for the NUTS-2 level

– Regional EAA hardly available (2-3 years only)

FINALY:

Data availability was not longer important

issue

– Eurostat was much further then expected

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

7


CAPRI

Baseline validtion

CAPRI

Baseline 2013 validation:

–Baseline provided by Bonn Team

Validation by all partners (Nov’ 2006)

–Country level

–Activity levels

(Crop‘s areas and heard sizes)

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

8


CAPRI

Baseline validation – results 1

OK

Accetable

Opposite trend or stability

Big gap - national and model data

CAPRI

Code Comodity CZ PL SK HU SI LT LV BG RO EE

SWHE Soft wheat ■ ■ ▼ ▼ ▼■ ▲■ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲

DWHE Durum wheat ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼■

RYEM Rye and meslin ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼

BARL Barley ▲■ ▲ ▼■ ▼ ▼■ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

OATS Oats ▲ ▼■ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼■ ▲

MAIZ Grain maize ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▲ ▲

OCER Other cereals ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲

PARI Paddy rice ▼ ▲ ▼

RAPE Rape ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲▲ ▲▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲

SUNF Sunflower ▼■ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲▲ ▲

SOYA Soya ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲

OLIV Olives for oil ▼

OOIL Other oils ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲

PULS Pulses ▼■ ▼■ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ■ ▼ ▲

POTA Potatoes ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▼ ▼■ ▼

SUGB Sugar beet ▼■ ■ ▼■ ■ ■ ▼■ ■ ■ ▼ ▼

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

9


CAPRI

Baseline validation – results 2

OK

Accetable

Opposite trend or stability

Big gap - national and model data

CAPRI

Code Comodity CZ PL SK HU SI LT LV BG RO EE

TEXT Flax and hemp ▼ ▼■ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

TOBA Tobacco ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ■

OIND Other industrial crops ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼

TOMA Tomatoes ▼ ▼▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ■ ▼ ▼

OVEG Other vegetables ▼ ▼▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼

APPL Apples pears and peaches ▼ ■ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

OFRU Other fruits ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

CITR Citrus fruits

TAGR Table grapes ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

TABO Table olives

TWIN Wine ■ ▼ ▼ ■ ▲ ▼

NURS Nurseries ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲

FLOW Flowers ▲ ▲ ■ ▲ ■ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼

OCRO Other crops ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲■ ▲

MAIF Fodder maize ▼ ▲▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼■ ▲ ▲ ▲■ ▲

ROOF Fodder root crops ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲

OFAR Fodder other on arable land ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲■ ■ ▼ ▼

GRAS Gras and grazings ▲ ▼■ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼■ ▲

SETA Set aside idling

NONF Non food production on set aside

FALL Fallow land ▼■ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ■ ▲ ▲

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

10


CAPRI

Baseline validation – results 3

CAPRI

OK

Accetable

Opposite trend or stability

Big gap - national and model data

Code Comodity CZ PL SK HU SI LT LV BG RO EE

DCOW Dairy cows ▼ ■ ▼■ ▼ ▼ ▼■ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼

SCOW Suckler cows ▲ ▲■ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ■

BULF Male adult fattening ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲■ ▼

HEIF Heifers fattening ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼■ ▼

HEIR Heifers breeding ▼ ■ ▼ ▼ ▲■ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼

CAMF Calves fattening male ▼■ ▲■ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲■ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲

CAFF Calves fattening female ▼■ ▲■ ▲ ■ ▲■ ▲■ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲

CAMR Calves raising male ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼■ ▼

CAFR Calves raring female ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▼ ▲■ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼

PIGF Pig fattening ▼ ▲ ▼■ ▼ ▼■ ▲■ ▼ ■ ▼ ▼

SOWS Sows for piglet production ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▼■ ▼ ▼ ■ ▼ ▼

SHGM Sheep and goat for milk ▲ ▲■ ▲■ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ■ ▲

SHGF Sheeop and goat fattening ■ ▲■ ▼■ ■ ▲ ▲■ ▲ ■ ▼ ▲

HENS Laying hens ■ ■ ▲■ ■ ▼ ▲ ▲ ■ ▼ ▼

POUF Poultry fattening ▲ ▲■ ▲ ■ ▼ ▼ ▲ ■ ▼ ▼

OANI Other animals ▲ ▲ ■ ▲ ▲ ▲ ■ ▲ ■

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

11


CAPRI

• Sugar beet

Baseline validation –

corrections

– In some cases exceed quota limit – has been

corrected

CAPRI

• Fallow land

– payments increased demand for land (PL) –

problem of trend extrapolation

• Beef & dairy sector

– Numbers of animals do not correspond with „the

nature“ – explained by international trade

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

12


CAPRI

CAPRI

Thank You for attention

CAPRI DYNASPAT final meeting, Brussels, 26-27 February 2007

13

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