c - usaid

22
f3
Re lative values of age-speci fic natural ferti lity
rates.
The year 181 iE takon a s the base year because the
as as a contracnptive prevalence
population census well
survey
(uPS-81 3 was conducted in that your. Bench-mark date end
estimates
for items
(a] and c) are providod by these
two
sources.
Estimates for i tms (d] and
(e) , that have bean made a r
1081 by di fferent organ isations, aLi within a narrow range, and
have thus receivod wide acceptanco.
The situation about i tems (b) and (f) is not so clear. We
have
therefore experimented with different
sets of values of (f) ,
( e as provided by the abovewhich,
along with () , (c) , (d) and
mert ioned s ou rce , yield estimates of (b) .
Once we have found ( f] which, together with [a] to e]
broadly sati ,fy conditions of internal cana istency for 1981, the
same ( f can ba u sad as
an input for making projections for
subsequent
years.
While making consistency checks, we have to be
prepared to a Llow
for a r easonable margin
of error, because
cannot be expected
d oi.ographic dat and eastimates in Bangladesh to­
be error free. Also, we have to
choose
between two
poasible
checks of cons istency, namely
overall e CPH and unweighted average of age-speci fic CPB's,
1/7 1U . Bongarts and Potter
i.e. wheth, r u i s equal to i
(1983) have suggested this.
(ii overall CPR and weighted average of age-specific CPR's,
[ WRA) . (u] is equal to _ (HWRA 3. (ui). This
i.e. whether
i i
ca nr bea c a LLed coansGi s ten cy i n reag a rd to ~u s r s ef