George w. casey jr. - Federation of American Scientists

device from a distance without exposing themselves
to capture. Since not all IEDs are emplaced on roadways,
it is likely that alternate tactics that are used
in Mexico, such as placing the device next to a body,
would also be employed. Cartel members know that
security forces will have to react to this discovery,
making a successful strike all but certain. 16
The emplacement of an IED inside a drug bundle
is also a likely scenario. The Border Patrol is known
to simply stack these bundles together and to move
them into a warehouse or holding area after they
are found which provides numerous opportunities
for a casualty-inflicting remote detonation.
In addition, the cartels have the potential
to create more sophisticated devices
than those that have been seen in
either Iraq or Afghanistan. They have
the luxury of learning from these insurgencies
since the methodologies learned
by those who participated in fighting
U.S. forces are widely available on the
Internet. The cartels have greater financial
capabilities than the threat groups
in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they have
the money to construct devices that use
technologies that cannot currently be
defeated. The cartels would also have
a distinctly different target set, as the
Border Patrol is a paramilitary force
that is not trained in or equipped for CIED (counter-
IED) operations. The cartels would likely outpace
current CIED efforts and capabilities very quickly,
and the U.S. would find itself at a serious disadvantage
in a short time period.
In reference to the threat of IED proliferation, the
intelligence community has been limited to reactive
rather than proactive measures, and the situation
along the southern U.S. border is shaping up
to become a scenario that will be similar to what
has been seen in the past. The only thing currently
preventing the use of IEDs along the border is an
unsteady decision by the cartels. Appropriate measures
must be in place and concrete steps must be
taken to diminish any potential gain that could be
obtained from IED use if the U.S. is to avert this
threat.
The reason IEDs are employed is because they
are easy to use, effective and relatively inexpensive.
If the cartels suffer more loss than gain from their
early attempts to employ IEDs, they will be much
less willing to spend the time and money to advance
their devices and to overcome any countermeasures.
However, if the cartels experience early
success due to a lack of preparation on the part of
the U.S., they will have the opportunity and motivation
to build upon their experiences, and to adjust
their tactics and upgrade their devices, as any
countermeasures are likely to arrive piecemeal. If
early IED attacks by the cartels succeed, this kind
of tactic will be perceived as cost-effective, and will
turn what might have been a short-term threat into
a long-term one.
Protective Measures against Potential
IED Threat
A critical measure that must be implemented
is the addition of various cartels to the Declared
Terrorist Organizations list that is maintained by
the U.S. State Department. This list currently contains
no groups related to Mexico’s violence, despite
these groups meeting all the necessary criteria, as
they are an obvious threat to both U.S. citizens and
interests. 17 The parallels between the cartels and
other groups already on the list are readily identifiable,
particularly since some of their more heinous
acts of beheading, assassination, and mutilation
are identical in nature.
Adding these groups to the Declared Terrorist
Organizations list would open new avenues for the
prosecution of individuals associated with these organizations
and would provide a secondary benefit
of encouraging detained cartel members to work
against their former comrades due to the threat of
48 Military Intelligence