Module Leader

ibk.ethz.ch

Module Leader

MASTER OF ADVANCED STUDIES IN

NATURAL HAZARDS MANAGEMENT

(MAS NATHAZ)

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Initiative -

HazNETH (Network for Natural Hazards at ETH Zurich)

in collaboration with the:

• Department of Civil, Environmental and Geomatic Engineering

• Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences

• Department of Agricultural and Food Science

• Department of Environmental Sciences

• Department of Earth Sciences

• Department of Mechanical and Process Engineering

• Department of Management, Technology and Economics

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Why

• Ongoing growth of population and changing

land utilization has exposed society to risks

from natural hazards

• Emissions to the environment significant

increase in frequency and magnitude of

natural hazard events in the future (climate

effect)

• Natural resources are endangered and

reducing in stock

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Motivation

• For protection of existing infrastructure and

lives against increasing risk from natural

hazards

• For decision making in respect of where (&

how) to take preventative measures

• To guarantee sustainable development

• To improve societal awareness and

management with due consideration of the

interaction between societal developments,

livelihoods, quality of the environment and

economic growth

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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To whom

Specialists from

• Engineering

• Natural /social sciences concerned with risk assessment or/and risk

management in connection with natural hazards

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Start of the programme: September 2009

Application period: January 1 – April 30, 2009

The Master will take place during the semester period

(week-blocks one week each month 8 weeks each year):

1 st year: 15.09.09 – 18.12.09 Weeks 40 – 44 – 47 – 51

22.02.10 – 04.06.10

2 nd year: 20.09.10 – 24.12.10

21.02.11 – 03.06.11

Tuition language: English

Costs: CHF 16,700.– (incl. compulsory taxes of the ETH)

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Two tracks

• Track 1) Operational natural hazards risk management

• natural hazards engineering

• atmospheric and earth sciences

• holistic understanding of natural hazards processes

• consequences modeling and engineering means to reduce

consequences

• Track 2) Strategic natural hazards risk management

• socio-economical aspects of risk management

• understanding of interrelation of societal developments and natural

hazards

• understanding of how natural hazards affect societies at different scales

• management and treatment of risks

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Didactic scheme

Both tracks will start out from the same point, by introducing to the student in a

joint module a given risk management problem from a test bed area

PURPOSE:

To identify the problem respectively setting from the perspective of operational

and strategic risk management

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Didactic scheme

• 1 st year:

• Issues related to the identification, understanding

and representation of hazards

• Exercises to the various modules (case study)

• End of the 1st year:

• Joint project work:

• To learn about the different insights gained from the

two tracks

• To set out the new aims for the second year

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Module Overview

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Didactic scheme

• 2 nd year:

• Various issues relating to risk management

• Exercises to the various modules (case study)

• End of the 2nd year:

• Joint project work:

• To achieve a holistic perspective to risk management

• To appreciate the significance of both operational and

strategic risk management

• To illustrate how the two perspectives in practice

strongly depend on each other

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Module Overview

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Case Study (1 st and 2 nd year)

Module Leader

M. H. Faber, Institute of Structural Engineering,

Group Risk and Safety

Purpose & Rationale

• To relate the material the students are taught during classes to the context of

risk management from a conceptual, analytical and practical perspective

• To provide a “portal” for the course outlining the role and relevance of the

various course components

• To set the two tracks of the course in perspective to the operational and

strategic aspects of risk management

• A specific alpine region in Switzerland with different kinds of natural hazards

and decision problems will be investigated

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Case Study (1 st and 2 nd year)

Module Themes:

• Decision making at operational level

• Identification of the relevant decision problems

• Identification of relevant risks (Risk-Screening)

• Collection and treatment of statistical data and spatial information on

different types of events

• Modeling of the exposure and the vulnerability of (protection) structures

• Establishing risk models and calculation of the risk at a specific site

• Normative decision making in regard to risk reducing measures

• Risk communication (local)

• Defining the interface between operational and strategic decision making

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Case Study (1 st and 2 nd year)

Module Themes:

• Decision making at a strategic level

• Identification of relevant problems in the strategic planning (planning of

investments and efficient budget allocation)

• Modeling of risks on a higher hierarchical level; Aggregation of risks

• Evaluation of the acceptability of risks

• Risk communication and sustainable societal decision making

• Usage of tools for the risk communication (GIS maps of the considered

National Roads, the hazards and the exposed assets)

• Hierarchical modeling by using results from the operational level (interface)

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Statistics and Probability (1 st year)

Module Leader

M. H. Faber, Institute of Structural Engineering, Group

Risk and Safety

Purpose & Rationale

• To provide a methodology for the consistent

representation of uncertainties in time and space of

hazards and risks

Presented material

• Introduction in statistics and probability

• Introduction of different types of uncertainty and how

subjectively assessed uncertainties affect e.g. the

statistical characteristics of extreme events

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Statistics and Probability (1 st year)

Module Learning Objectives

• To refresh the basic knowledge with a special emphasis on the interrelation

between statistical analysis and engineering model building

• To provide a solid understanding of model building and the associated

statistic and probabilistic representations

• To provide the basic building stones for time series analysis and statistical

analysis of spatially varying phenomena and random point in time variability

• To analyze and represent hazard events and/or uncertainties associated

with natural phenomena

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Statistics and Probability (1 st year)

Module sub-themes

• Time series analysis

• Spatial statistical analysis

• Extreme event modeling

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Risk Assessment (2 nd year)

Module Leader

M. H. Faber, Institute of Structural Engineering, Group Risk and Safety

Purpose & Rationale

• To introduce how probabilistic models are established in engineering

modeling

• To analyze complex systems

• To provide a understanding how consequences are generated

• To define different types of consequences and their importance

• To introduce an indicator based standardized system representation for

consistent and uniform risk assessments in different application areas

Presented material

• Set of tools illustrated on one example

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Risk Assessment (2 nd year)

Module Leader

M. H. Faber, Institute of Structural Engineering, Group Risk and Safety

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Risk Assessment (2 nd year)

Module Learning Objectives

• To understand how to establish probabilistic models to represent

uncertainties in engineering models concerning both time invariant and

variant phenomena

• To represent hierarchically, generically and by the use of indicators the

system composed of components and their interrelations

• To introduce the theory and application of Bayesian Probabilistic Nets

• How to assess and aggregate risks in large geographical regions

The students will be able to formulate systems representations for natural and/or

engineered systems such as to facilitate their analysis and assessment.

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Risk Assessment (2 nd year)

Module sub-themes

• Probabilistic engineering modeling

• Systems representation and hazard identification

• Bayesian Probabilistic Nets

• Large scale risk assessment based on indicators

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Consequence modeling (2 nd year)

Module Leader

M. H. Faber, Institute of Structural Engineering, Group Risk and Safety

Purpose & Rationale

• To provide the building stones for the analysis, understanding and

assessment of the consequences

• To utilize the system representation introduced in the module Risk

Assessment

• To outline how this framework facilitates the assessment of consequences

related to loss of lives, monetary losses due to damages, damages to the

qualities of the environment as well as societal consequences

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Consequence modeling (2 nd year)

Module Leader

M. H. Faber, Institute of Structural Engineering, Group Risk and Safety

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Consequence modeling (2 nd year)

Module Learning Objectives

• How to develop models for the quantification of loss of lives, economical

losses and damages to the environment

• How to differentiate between direct consequences and indirect

consequences and how to assess societal and social indirect consequences

in dependency of the perceived direct consequences

The students will be able to formulate and analyze models for the quantification

of consequences

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Consequence modeling (2 nd year)

Module sub-themes

• Loss of lives in natural disasters

• Economical losses due to damages to building and life lines

• Damages to the qualities of the environment

• Societal and social consequences

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Hazard Processes 1 (1 st year)

Module Leader

S. M. Springman, Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, Group Geotechnics

Purpose & Rationale

• To introduce groups of hazard processes in a qualitative way

• To elaborate the extent and interdependence of the hazard process groups

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Hazard Processes 1 (1 st year)

Module Learning Objectives

• To define key terminology relevant to the various hazard processes

• To identify key aspects of each natural hazard process from a range of

information resources

• To understand the relevant phenomena and processes

• To explore (mainly qualitatively) the cause and effect of each set of hazards

• To establish a common basis for communication with technical experts

The students will be able to develop a knowledge, and basic understanding of causes

and effects of different natural hazards

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Hazard Processes 1 (1 st year)

Module sub-themes

• Meteorological hazards

• Hydrological hazards

• Geotechnical / geological hazards

• Seismological / tectonic hazards

• Effects of global warming on hazards

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Hazard Processes 2 (1 st year)

Module Leader

S. M. Springman, Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, Group Geotechnics

Purpose & Rationale

• To analyze and model hazard processes in a quantitative fashion

• To understand, to predict and to determine the effects of each set of hazards on each

other

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Hazard Processes 2 (1 st year)

Module Learning Objectives

• How to understand the basics

• How to be aware of limitations of methods used (?)

• How to apply methods to (a) simple case(s) (e.g. locally or regionally)

• How to be able to judge the reliability of the data produced

• How to be able to judge the quality of meteorological information

received from meteorological experts

The students will be able to quantify the extent and interdependence of

the hazard process groups.

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Protection/prevention measures (2 nd year)

Module Leader

S. M. Springman, Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, Group Geotechnics

Purpose & Rationale

• To present methods of preventing and protecting against relevant natural

hazards

Module Learning Objectives

• How to become aware of the different categories of prevention and

protection measures

• How to know which type of measure to consider for a set of practical cases,

including requirements for spatial, temporal, dimensional information

• How to understand the interaction between the hazards and the measures

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Protection/prevention measures (2 nd year)

Module sub-themes

• Prevention measures (to stop hazard occurring)

• Limited (passive) protection measures

• Guiding protection measures

• Stopping protection measures

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Data acquisition and mapping (1 st year)

Module Leader

L. Hurni, Institute of Cartography, Group Cartography

Purpose & Rationale

• To acquire raw data concerning natural hazard phenomena, processes and

related information such as topographic data

• To acquire data using specific satellite/aerial and terrestrial sensors and

sensor networks, the data storage, management and access in

multithematic databases

• To focus on (field) mapping of natural hazard processes and danger zones

• To model, visualize and analyse natural hazard processes in a GIS

environment

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Data acquisition and mapping (1 st year)

Module Learning Objectives

• How to know about major methods and technologies of data acquisition,

modeling and management in databases and GIS

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Data acquisition and mapping (1 st year)

Module sub-themes

• Data acquisition of Natural Hazard data using specialized terrestrial sensors

and sensor networks I and II

• Geodetic data acquisition (Terrestrial and air-borne methods) I and II

• Introduction to Photogrammetry and Optical Remote Sensing

• Introduction to Microwave Remote Sensing and Airborne laser scanning

• Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing Data

• Natural Hazard Mapping (field mapping and cartography)

• Natural Hazard Mapping II and III

• Database and GIS modeling

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Societal & cultural aspects in risk management (1 st year)

Module Leader

K. Seeland, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Group Society,

Environment & Culture

Purpose & Rationale

• To introduce to the salient features of the Human-Environment-System in all

its relations to environmental decision making

• To look at the role of societal institutions, governance systems and cultural

perceptions of hazards and risks connected to or based on cultural values

• To achieve introspections into the subtle foundations of decision making

processes in various cultural settings

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Societal & cultural aspects in risk management (1 st year)

Case study analyses

• How risk management is based upon social patterns

of reasoning, behaviour, social action and cultural traditional and beliefs

Module Learning Objectives

• To understand how deeply the assessment and management of hazards

and risks is rooted in cultural traditions and societal patterns of risk

perception and decision making

• To communicate this understanding and knowledge to decision makers

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Societal & cultural aspects in risk management (1 st year)

Module sub-themes

• Farmers decisions and risk management in drought and water scarcity

conditions for food production

• Risk prevention and governance

• Risk insurance

• Nature & Environment

• Religious dimensions of hazard & risk management

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Planning, Preparedness and Early Warning (2 nd year)

Module Leader

A. Kos, Geological Institute, Group Engineering Geology

Purpose & Rationale

• To look at the non-structural aspects of risk reduction

• To understand theoretically and practically the role of land use planning,

early warning, emergency response and recovery in reducing natural risks

and building societal resilience

Module Learning Objectives

• To understand the fundamentals of preparedness, response and recovery

• To design a damage reduction strategy for a natural hazard scenario

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Planning, Preparedness and Early Warning (2 nd year)

Module sub-themes

• Land use planning and management as a tool for risk reduction

• Government policy, regulation and legal frameworks in risk reduction

• Principles of people-centred Early Warning systems

• International policy frameworks for risk reduction and National level risk

reduction platforms

• Emergency planning and response, information management and logistics

• Relief, reconstruction of infrastructure and recovery of livelihood

• Application to case study

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Decision Making and Perception in Risk Management

(2 nd year)

Module Leader

M. Siegrist, Institute for Environmental Decisions, Group Consumer Behavior

Purpose & Rationale

• To analyze people’s risk perception related to natural hazards

• To analyze factors that influence people’s decision to implement or not to

implement precautionary measures

• To define economic and psychological decision making models

Module Learning Objectives

• How to be able to consider social and human aspects in the decision

making process

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Decision Making and Perception in Risk Management

(2 nd year)

Module sub-themes

• Risk perception and decision making

• Risks from an economic perspective

• Decision Engineering

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Damages to the built environment (2 nd year)

Module Leader

T. Vogel, Institute of Structural Engineering,

Group Structural Engineering-Structural Design and Conservation

Purpose & Rationale

• To discuss the impact on normal buildings, special structures and lifelines

• To introduce basic concepts of vulnerability assessment and explanation of

existing building codes and standards

• To introduce recent natural disasters and discussion of their impacts, related

to the existing hazard assessments and codes for the area

Montag, 9. März 2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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Damages to the built environment (2 nd year)

Module sub-themes

• Vulnerability of buildings

• Vulnerability of lifelines

• Vulnerability of special structures

• Damage caused by wind

• Damage caused floods

• Damage caused by mass movements

• Damage caused by earthquakes

09.03.2009 D-BAUG / Institute of Structural Engineering / MAS NATHAZ

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