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W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2 1

W o r ld O il O u tlo o k O P E C 2

World Oil Outlook 2010 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries

  • Page 3 and 4: World Oil Outlook 2010 Organization
  • Page 5 and 6: OPEC is a permanent, intergovernmen
  • Page 7 and 8: C o n t e n t s Foreword 1 Executiv
  • Page 9 and 10: Section Two Oil downstream outlook
  • Page 11 and 12: Table 3.2 Estimates of world crude
  • Page 13 and 14: Figure 5.2 Additional distillation
  • Page 15 and 16: For the global oil market, the peri
  • Page 17 and 18: are now being taken to introduce re
  • Page 19 and 20: The emergence of oil as an asset cl
  • Page 21 and 22: increasingly important issue has be
  • Page 23 and 24: in the OECD is expected in all sect
  • Page 25 and 26: such as for pipelines, amount to $2
  • Page 27 and 28: away from residual fuels to diesel
  • Page 29 and 30: technologies and technological brea
  • Page 31 and 32: 17 Executive summary
  • Page 33: Oil supply and demand outlook to 20
  • Page 36 and 37: 22 particular for small companies;
  • Page 38 and 39: 24 Noting these perceptions, the Re
  • Page 40 and 41: 26 WTI front-month price and open i
  • Page 42 and 43: 28 preparation. The financial crisi
  • Page 44 and 45: 30 Box 1.2 The world economic recov
  • Page 46 and 47: 32 are in a much better financial s
  • Page 48 and 49: 34 and 1.3 respectively by the firs
  • Page 50 and 51: 36 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 medium variant of
  • Page 52 and 53:

    38 Table 1.3 Population by urban/ru

  • Page 54 and 55:

    40 Figure Figure 1.5 1.5 Real GDP R

  • Page 56 and 57:

    42 Despite this shift towards Asia,

  • Page 58 and 59:

    44 from, for example, technological

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    46 two-thirds of its biofuels produ

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    48 Table 1.5 World supply of primar

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    50 India Ukraine Kazakhstan New Fig

  • Page 66 and 67:

    52 Figure 1.12 Natural gas reserves

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    54 Box 1.4 Shale gas: a game change

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    56 premium is maintained over a lon

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    58 While large hydropower plants re

  • Page 74 and 75:

    60 the greatest growth of 3.3% p.a.

  • Page 76 and 77:

    62 Figure 1.17 Figure 1.17 Changes

  • Page 78 and 79:

    64 Figure 1.18 Growth in oil demand

  • Page 80 and 81:

    tion 66 1.0 0.5 0 Figure 1.21 Figur

  • Page 82 and 83:

    68 Oil supply Oil supply in the med

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    70 2009 to 30.6 mb/d by 2014. The m

  • Page 86 and 87:

    72 Figure 1.27 Incremental OPEC and

  • Page 88 and 89:

    74 Figure 1.30 Non-OPEC oil supply,

  • Page 90 and 91:

    76 Figure 1.33 Cumulative upstream

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    78 However, cumulative emissions ar

  • Page 95 and 96:

    Chapter 2 O i l d e m a n d b y s e

  • Page 97 and 98:

    Table 2.1 Vehicle and passenger car

  • Page 99 and 100:

    Figure 2.3 Figure 2.3 Passenger car

  • Page 101 and 102:

    In order to capture the correspondi

  • Page 103 and 104:

    Commercial vehicles The global stoc

  • Page 105 and 106:

    transmissions, tyres, the use of li

  • Page 107 and 108:

    efficiencies and higher biofuels pe

  • Page 109 and 110:

    Figure 2.8 Figure 2.8 Growth in oil

  • Page 111 and 112:

    Table 2.5 Oil demand in aviation in

  • Page 113 and 114:

    Western Europe Figure North 2.9 Ame

  • Page 115 and 116:

    The Reference Case outlook for oil

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    ethylene, only a modest petrochemic

  • Page 119 and 120:

    Figure 2.13 Oil demand in other ind

  • Page 121 and 122:

    Table 2.8 Oil demand in other indus

  • Page 123 and 124:

    Table 2.9 Oil demand in residential

  • Page 125 and 126:

    growth in sea trade will continue a

  • Page 127 and 128:

    key trends in sectoral demand are c

  • Page 129 and 130:

    asis, especially in developing Asia

  • Page 131 and 132:

    Chapter 3 O i l s u p p l y The ove

  • Page 133 and 134:

    Table 3.1 Medium-term non-OPEC crud

  • Page 135 and 136:

    edevelopments of the Rubiales heavy

  • Page 137 and 138:

    Although oil production in Russia f

  • Page 139 and 140:

    production levels. This can be view

  • Page 141 and 142:

    finding oil. The successful applica

  • Page 143 and 144:

    Box 3.2 After Deepwater Horizon: im

  • Page 145 and 146:

    levels, and to meet this it is clea

  • Page 147 and 148:

    crude and NGLs in India remains clo

  • Page 149 and 150:

    In the long-term, several constrain

  • Page 151 and 152:

    Table 3.7 Long-term biofuel supply

  • Page 153 and 154:

    Chapter 4 U p s t r e a m c h a l l

  • Page 155 and 156:

    oad factors that are, to a consider

  • Page 157 and 158:

    An attempt to quantify the possible

  • Page 159 and 160:

    Figure 4.2 Cumulative OPEC investme

  • Page 161 and 162:

    Figure 5.4 Figure 4.3 (6.10.10) IHS

  • Page 163 and 164:

    Though resources are plentiful, oil

  • Page 165 and 166:

    The development of the producer-con

  • Page 167:

    Oil downstream outlook to 2030

  • Page 170 and 171:

    156 Changes are also likely to mate

  • Page 172 and 173:

    158 implemented, with the majority

  • Page 174 and 175:

    160 Figure 5.1 Distillation capacit

  • Page 176 and 177:

    162 via pipelines from Kazakhstan a

  • Page 178 and 179:

    164 280,000 b/d. A further two-phas

  • Page 180 and 181:

    166 Despite the high number of anno

  • Page 182 and 183:

    168 capacity, the trend toward the

  • Page 184 and 185:

    170 and alkylation. Projections ind

  • Page 186 and 187:

    172 that projected in the Reference

  • Page 188 and 189:

    174 would be more than 5 mb/d, as a

  • Page 190 and 191:

    176 It appears the present situatio

  • Page 192 and 193:

    178 These trends are clearly visibl

  • Page 194 and 195:

    180 ethanol supply and an overall d

  • Page 196 and 197:

    182 Figure 5.7 Figure 5.7 Crude dis

  • Page 198 and 199:

    184

  • Page 200 and 201:

    186 Asia- Pacific US & Canada Europ

  • Page 202 and 203:

    188 period after 2015, however, a d

  • Page 204 and 205:

    190 Figure 6.4 Maximum gasoline sul

  • Page 206 and 207:

    192 before mid-2011. The diesel sul

  • Page 208 and 209:

    194 East. However, more will be nee

  • Page 210 and 211:

    196 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 F

  • Page 212 and 213:

    198 the diesel yields from these st

  • Page 214 and 215:

    200 Figure 6.7 Expected surplus/def

  • Page 216 and 217:

    202 Figure 6.8 Global capacity requ

  • Page 218 and 219:

    204 crude slate quality and the cur

  • Page 220 and 221:

    206 Figure 6.11 Desulphurization ca

  • Page 222 and 223:

    208 this is subject to revisions if

  • Page 224 and 225:

    210 • To what degree will governm

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    212 Figure 8.2 Figure 7.2 Refinery

  • Page 228 and 229:

    214 For the entire forecast period,

  • Page 230 and 231:

    216 Figure 9 .1 Figure 8.1 Inter-re

  • Page 232 and 233:

    218 Figure 8.3 Major crude exports

  • Page 234 and 235:

    220 Latin America Africa FSU Middle

  • Page 236 and 237:

    222 0 2009 2030 2009 crease substan

  • Page 238 and 239:

    224 0 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 Figu

  • Page 240 and 241:

    226 In the midst of this capacity g

  • Page 242 and 243:

    228 the recession discouraged scrap

  • Page 244 and 245:

    230 further if investors see an opp

  • Page 246 and 247:

    232 Capacity competition - expansio

  • Page 248 and 249:

    234 gasoline. Should it become comm

  • Page 250 and 251:

    236 comprehensive and developed ETS

  • Page 252 and 253:

    238 trade scheme that would have em

  • Page 254 and 255:

    240 emissions by 25% versus 1990 le

  • Page 256 and 257:

    242 Implications for the refining s

  • Page 258 and 259:

    244 non-carbon regime regions. Thus

  • Page 260 and 261:

    Footnotes

  • Page 262 and 263:

    248 18. http://www.world-nuclear.or

  • Page 264 and 265:

    Annex A

  • Page 267 and 268:

    ACES American Clean Energy and Secu

  • Page 269 and 270:

    mpg Miles per gallon MR1 General Pu

  • Page 271 and 272:

    257 Annex A

  • Page 273:

    OPEC World Energy Model (OWEM) defi

  • Page 276 and 277:

    262 Bahamas Haiti Barbados Honduras

  • Page 278 and 279:

    264 Indonesia Solomon Islands Kirib

  • Page 280 and 281:

    Annex C

  • Page 283 and 284:

    US & Canada United States of Americ

  • Page 285 and 286:

    Djibouti St. Helena Ethiopia Sudan

  • Page 287 and 288:

    Asia-Pacific OECD Pacific Australia

  • Page 289 and 290:

    Major data sources

  • Page 291 and 292:

    American Petroleum Institute Baker

  • Page 293 and 294:

    International Fuel Quality Centre I

  • Page 295 and 296:

    World Oil World Resources Institute

  • Page 298:

    OPEC Secretariat Helferstorferstras

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