January - August 2008 - Istra

istra.hr

January - August 2008 - Istra

World Economy

and International

Tourism

Istria, Croatia / Madrid, Spain

17 December 2009

John G.C. Kester

Chief of Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

jkester@unwto.org

January - August

2008

1


UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

Objective: monitoring

short-term evolution of

worlwide tourism

Frequency: 3 times a year

(January, June, October)

Permanent elements:

• Short term tourism data

• In focus

• UNWTO Panel of Tourism

Experts

• Economic data relevant

for tourism

35

The heartbeat of international tourism

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

30

% change over same month previous

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

199019911992 19931994199519961997 19981999200020012002 20032004200520062007 2008*2009*

-10

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

2


% change over same month previous year

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

World Tourism Performance 2008

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

Jan-August 2008:+3.7%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

20

Europe’s Performance 2008

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

% change over same month previous year

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Jan-August 2008:+1.7%

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

3


Jannuary-August 2008 growth rates by region

20

International Tourist Arrivals

variation over previous year (%)

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

6,6

2007/2006

2008 (YTD Jan-Aug)

3,7

4,9

1,7

10,5

4,3

5,0

5,6

7,0

3,2

14,5

17,3

0

World Europe Asia and the

Pacific

Americas Africa Middle East

January-August 2008 growth rates by subregion

International Tourist Arrivals

Northern Europe

Western Europe

Central & Eastern Europe

Souther/Med Europe

North-East Asia

South-East Asia

Oceania

South Asia

North Am.

Caribbean

Central Am.

South Am.

North Africa

Sub-saharan Afr.

Middle East

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20

0.3

1.2

0.4

0.4

0.9

1.7

2.7

2.9

2.1

3.3

3.0

3.5

5.2

5.2

5.6

6.2

6.9

7.5

6.4

7.2

7.9

6.9

6.5

10.6

10.1

10.5

9.4

2007/2006

2008 (YTD Jan-Aug)

12.2

14.5

17.3

4


1000

International tourism volume and receipts:

growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals

Worldwide Inbound Tourism, 1995-2007

900

800

700

International Tourist Arrivals (million)

- from 536 million in 1995 to 903 million in 2007

- average growth of 4.4% a year

600

500

400

International Tourism Receipts (US$ billion)

- from US$ 405 billion in 1995 to 856 billion in 2007

300

200

International Tourism Receipts (euro/ecu billion)

- from euro 310 billion in 1995 to 625 billion in 2007

100

0

1995 2000 2005 2007*

11

10

9

International tourism volume and receipts:

growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals

international tourist arrivals

international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

% change over previous year

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

Asian financial

and economic

crisis:

expenditure

grew slower

11S, SARS, economic

downturn: receipts

more affected

1

0

-1

-2

96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 '00/'99 '01/'00 '02/'01 '03/'02 '04/'03 '05/'04 '06/'05 '07*/'06

5


600

International tourism volume and receipts:

growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals

Europe, Inbound Tourism, 1995-2007

500

400

International Tourist Arrivals (million)

- from 311 million in 1995 to 485 million in 2007

- average growth of 3.8% a year

300

200

100

International Tourism Receipts (euro/ecu billion)

- from euro 161 billion in 1995 to 317 billion in 2007

International Tourism Receipts (US$ billion)

- from US$ 211 billion in 1995 to 434 billion in 2007

0

1995 2000 2005 2007*

11

10

9

International tourism volume and receipts:

growth in receipts close to growth in arrivals

international tourist arrivals

international tourism receipts (local currencies, constant prices)

% change over previous year

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

11S, SARS, economic

downturn: receipts

more affected

0

-1

-2

96/95 97/96 98/97 99/98 '00/'99 '01/'00 '02/'01 '03/'02 '04/'03 '05/'04 '06/'05 '07*/'06

6


Outbound: International Tourism Expenditure 2008

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25

Germany

United States

United Kingdom*

France

China*

Italy

Japan

Canada*

Russian Federation*

Korea, Republic of

-5,9

-5,4

-0,8

-0,2

2,9

1,5

5,6

5,4

5,4

5,4

7,8

8,7

8,4

10,8

2007/2006

2008 (YTD Jan-Aug)

22,5

20,9

14,4

17,0

22,1

19,8

* Up to June

UNWTO Panel of Experts

7


UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts’s prospects at its

lowest level since 2003

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts, World

Sep-Dec. 2008 prospects (n = 293)

18

Much

Worse

113

83

65

13

Worse Equal Better Much

Better

UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

Confidence Index

Much

better

Better

17 5

15 0

12 5

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts, World

Equal

Worse

Much

worse

10 0

75

50

25

Prospect s

Evaluat ion

T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3-

03 03 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 08

Source: World Tourism Organization

8


UNWTO World Tourism Barometer

Confidence Index - Europe

Much

better

Better

17 5

15 0

12 5

UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts, World

Equal

Worse

Much

worse

10 0

75

50

25

Prospect s

Evaluation

T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3- T1- T2- T3-

03 03 03 04 04 04 05 05 05 06 06 06 07 07 07 08 08 08

Source: World Tourism Organization

Looking at past ‘crises’

9


Tourism, economy and external shocks

World, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals

12

10

Real GDP

Tourist Arrivals

Average 1975-2000

Average 1975-2000

% change over previous year

8

6

4

2

0

-2

IMF: a global recession would take a slowdown in global growth to 3% or less

-4

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

echo of the second oil crisis /

martial law in Poland /

Falklands conflict / conflict Israel-

Lebanon

Chernobyl

disaster

Gulf War /

disintegration of

Yugoslavia

Asian Financial

Crisis

Kosovo

11S

Iraq,

SARS

Tourism, economy and external shocks

Europe, Growth of Real GDP & International Tourist Arrivals

12

10

Real GDP

Tourist Arrivals

Average 1975-2000

Average 1975-2000

% change over previous year

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

echo of the second oil crisis /

martial law in Poland /

Falklands conflict / conflict

Israel-Lebanon

Chernobyl

disaster

Gulf War /

disintegration of

Yugoslavia

Asian Financial

Crisis

Kosovo

11S

Iraq,

SARS

10


35

1991 gulf war /1990-1993 recession

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

30

% change over same month previous year

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

1990 1991 1992 1993

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

35

1991 gulf war /1990-1993 recession

Europe, Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

30

% change over same month previous year

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

11


25

Asian financial crisis

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

Asia and the pacific

% change over same month previous year

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

25

11S / Iraq war / SARS / downturn

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

% change over same month previous year

20

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

12


20

The heartbeat of international tourism

Monthly evolution of worldwide international tourist arrivals

% change over same month previous year

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009

length?

depth?

-15

Source: World Tourism Organization

…and now comes the

difficult part

13


Tourism Outlook

“limited experience with some of the main

drivers of the current conjuncture as well as

uncertainty about some specific influences

make for a particularly unclear picture.”

OECD in What is the economic outlook for

OECD countries? (sep 2008)

14


8

World, Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Longest period of sustained growth for 25 years

% change over previous year

7

6

5

4

3

2

5.1

4.9 5.0

4.6

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.0

3.6 3.7 3.7

3.7

3.5 3.4 3.5

3.6

3.7

3.3

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.0 2.0

1.5

2.0 2.2 0.9

1

0

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07'08*'09*

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

8

Advanced economies, GDP growth

However, strength is not coming from advanced economies

7

% change over previous year

6

5

4

3

2

1

0.9

1.8

4.7

4.7

4.0

4.0

3.7 3.6

3.3

3.4 3.5 3.5

2.9

3.0

2.8 3.0 3.2

3.0

2.6

2.6 2.6

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.2

0.1

0

-0.3

-1

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07'08*'09*

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

15


9

Emerging market and developing economies, GDP growth

Growth driven by emerging market and developing economies

7.9 8.0 6.6

% change over previous year

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

7.5

7.1

6.3

5.9

5.1 5.0

4.8

4.5

3.8

3.6 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.1

3.8

3.3

3.1 3.3 3.5

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

1.5 1.7

5.1

1

-1

80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07'08*'09*

Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF)

From boom to bust?

2008: volatility and quickly changing conditions

6 months ago

• high energy and

commodity prices

• inflation

• high interest rates

• record high euro

now

• credit crisis

• slowdown /

negative growth /

recession

• unemployment

16


Interest rate Federal Reserve and ECB (% ) Euribor 1 month (% )

8.0

7.5

United States

7.0

6.5

Euro area

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Source: Federal Reserv e and European Central Bank (ECB)

6.0

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

Euribor 1 mnth

0.5

0.0

1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Banco de España based on European Banking Federation

Crude Oil Spot Price Brent (daily) US$ per barrel Inflation, European Union (% )

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 09*

Source: US Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration

Source: International Monetary Fund

Exchange rate euro to US dollar (US$ per €) Unemployment rate, Eurozone (% )

1.70

1.60

1.50

1.40

1.30

1.20

1.10

1.00

0.90

0.80

0.70

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08* 09*

Source: De Nederlandse Bank

Source: International Monetary Fund

Growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), constant prices

7

6

2008 2009

5

4

3

2

-1

Italy

France

Germany

Euro area

United States

Advanced economies

World output

Spain

CIS excluding Russia

Russia

Central and eastern Europe

Emerging and developing ec.

Other advanced economies

Canada

United Kingdom

Japan

1

0

-2

Source: International Monetary Fund

17


“a slowdown is necessary to

rectify the excesses of a boom”

Crisis is global, but impact varies

Measures needed for advanced and emerging economies

Priorities:

• stabilising financial system and get it running again

• restore trust / restore confidence

• avoid damage in healthy sectors

• reactivate economy

Action need to be:

• coordinated

• keep playing field level

• avoid market distortion

18


Impact on tourism

Unlike major previous crises, such as 9/11 and SARS,

the current downturn does not impact so much on the

desire to travel.

The major concern is about whether one can afford to

travel,

or wants to spend on travel, given the uncertain

economic situation.

As in previous crises

- Closer to home travel, including domestic travel, to be

favoured;

- Repeat visitors, independent travellers, special interest and

visiting friends and relatives (VFR) expected to be more

resilient;

- Decline in length of stay and expenditure, more pronounced

than volume;

- Value for money destinations (exchange rates)

- Concentration on cost in order to maintain competitive edge

19


World Tourism Performance in 2008

and Outlook 2009…

Between 2004 and 2007 international tourist arrivals…

- grew at 7% a year (Europe 4.6%)

- well above the 4% long-term average (Europe 3.0%)

- boosted by a buoyant economy and pent-up demand

- after 2001-2003 turbulent period > economic

downturn, 11S, terrorism attacks, wars in Afghanistan

and Iraq and SARS

million

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast

World

International Tourist Arrivals

Tourism 2020 Vision forecast

Actual 1995-2007

536 mn

903 mn

1.0 bn

1.6 bn

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

20


million

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

Actual trend vs. Tourism 2020 Vision forecast

Europe

International Tourist Arrivals

Tourism 2020 Vision forecast

Actual 1995-2007

311 mn

484 mn

527 mn

717 mn

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

21


World

Europe

International Tourism Forecast 2009

Asia and the Pacific

Americas

Africa

Middle East

2008 full year

estimates

2-3%

1-2%

2-3%

4-5%

3-5%...?

9-15%...??

Forecast 2009

0-2%

0-2%

0-2%

1-3%

2-6%...?

3-8%...??

Crisis paradox: it makes structural underlying

weaknesses and threats more visible

- sustainability issues

- aging stock and need to regeneration

- energy dependence

- climate change adaptation and mitigation

- competitiveness, human resources and cost structure

- low occupancy of accommodation and strong seasonality

- need for product development

- insufficient market differentiation

- need for more and more effective marketing and promotion

- cooperation and coordination

22


Not all suffer…

Thank you very much for your attention!

World Tourism Organization

www.unwto.org

John Kester

Market Trends, Competitiveness and Trade in Tourism Services Section

email: jkester@unwto.org

23

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines