Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

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Anticipatory Learning for Climate Change Adaptation and Resilience

NEW YORK UNIVERSITY

Acknowledgements


Adaptation as Learning

for Resilience

Challenges:

• Theoretical

• Methodological

Anticipatory Learning:

Learning about the future before impacts

are apparent


Learning Loops and Cycles

Nodes of reflection (Source: Hartanto et al. 2003: 64) Nested adaptive cycles (Folke 2006;

after Gunderson and Holling 2002)


Iterative Adaptive Learning

Tschakert & Dietrich, E&S, 2010

Co-production of

(new) knowledge:

Channels for

information

exchange

Narrative imagination,

experimentation

Understanding

risks and costs

Providing

safety nets

Engage with unknown

yet conceivable risks

Evolving awareness

of climate and

other changes

Dynamic plan for

dealing with uncertainties

Tschakert and Dietrich. Ecology & Society (2010)


Anticipatory Capacity

Tschakert, Tamminga, Prins, Dietrich, Biermann, Hoadley, Crane 2009


IPCC Projections for Africa

Anomalies (percent deviation) of mean monthly precipitation (mm) for June/July/August using daily data down-scaled

from three GCMs for the period 2080-2099 (from Hewitson and Crane 2006 in Christensen et al. 2007).


Case Study Areas


Anticipatory Capacity:

Community Level

Leadership

Anticipation (vision)

Working together (unity)

Environmental awareness

Agency (freedom of speech)

Learning from the past (culture)

Agents of change

Monitoring change

Leadership

Anticipation (vision)

Working together (unity)

Environmental awareness

Agency (freedom of speech)

Learning from the past (culture)

Agents of change

Monitoring change


Anticipatory Capacity:

Gender Perspectives


Walking Journeys


Historical Matrices on

Climate Extremes

Extreme rainfall events

Year(s) Period(s) Communities Negative impacts Positive impacts

Akyeamfour

Bowiri Anyinase

Odomase

Xedzodzoekope

Structures

destroyed

Fields and crops

destroyed

1960s 2 wks in June x x x x

1962 - x x

1966 - x x

1976 - x x x x

1979 - x x x x x

1984 - x x

1989 - x x x x x x x x x

1991 All Year x x x x

1992 27-Apr x x

1992-96 - x x x

1995 July-October x x x x x x x

2000 - x x x

2006 August x x x

Landslides

Human diseases

Animal diseases

Hunger

Deaths

Other

Abundant fish

Abundant Food

Better Yields

Other


Climate Change

Mental Models


Environmental Monitoring


Drivers of Change

No. Changes Driving forces Occurrence Origin Control

Destruction of breeding sites

(mangroves, coral reefs)

Slowly Both Control

1 Fishery decrease

Illegal fishing

(dynamite, small nets)

Slowly Both Control

Poor fishing tools

(no fishing boats, no big nets)

Slowly Both No Control

2

Population

increase

Immigration Rapidly Both No Control

High fertility rate

Rapidly

Inside the

community

Control

3 Rainfall decrease

4

Infrastructure

changes

Deforestation Slowly Both No control

Weather changes

Good governance

Abruptly

Slowly

Outside the

community

Inside the

community

No control

Control

5

Governance

Improvements

Education (radio, television) Slowly Both Control

Transparency

Abruptly

Inside the

community

Control

Democracy Abruptly Both Control


Scenario Buildling


Active Agents of Change

Fabricius et al. 2007

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