Fundamentals - July 2007 - Old Mutual
Fundamentals - July 2007 - Old Mutual
Fundamentals - July 2007 - Old Mutual
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FUNDAMENTALS<br />
INVESTMENT PERSPECTIVES FOR INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS<br />
Top comment<br />
Contents<br />
ECONOMIC & MARKETS UPDATE<br />
1 Global economy<br />
2 Local economy<br />
2 Global asset allocation<br />
3 Local asset allocation<br />
4 Fixed income<br />
5 Market and economic indicators<br />
INSIGHTS<br />
6 SA private equity in the spotlight<br />
SECOND QUARTER <strong>2007</strong><br />
PERFORMANCE THROUGH FOCUS<br />
Mark Gevers<br />
Head: Private Equity<br />
INSIDE OMIGSA<br />
8 New private equity fund on the way<br />
10 Performance overview – 2nd quarter <strong>2007</strong><br />
“Our second multi-manager private<br />
equity fund will provide even greater<br />
diversification than the first fund.”<br />
See page 8.<br />
www.omigsa.com
ECONOMIC & MARKETS UPDATE<br />
Commentary for the period ending 30 JUNE <strong>2007</strong>.<br />
GLOBAL ECONOMY<br />
OMIGSA view<br />
While downside risks to the US economy have not disappeared, latest data supports our long<br />
held view that a recession is unlikely in the world’s biggest economy. Global interest rate risks<br />
remain skewed to the upside as growth remains generally strong and underlying inflation risks<br />
have risen. However, we still think it unlikely that policy makers will tighten policy so aggressively<br />
as to risk a serious global downturn in 2008.<br />
- Concerns about the health of the US economy eased over the past three months as incoming data<br />
pointed to a notably better growth performance in the second quarter from the very slow 0.7% annualised<br />
growth in the first.<br />
- However, all forms of housing activity remain extremely weak. While this has had little discernable<br />
impact on the rest of the economy, it remains a risk to the US growth outlook.<br />
- US inflation has remained tame, with the closely watched CPI (excluding food and energy) easing from<br />
2.9% in September 2006 to 2.3% in May <strong>2007</strong>. However, with the labour market tight, capacity utilisation<br />
at an industry high and commodity prices still lofty, inflation risks remain.<br />
- With the economy rebounding recently and inflation risks still elevated, the US Fed continues to regard<br />
upside inflation risks as greater than downside growth risks. The Fed is unlikely to ease rates unless<br />
inflation drops further and/or the economy slows unexpectedly.<br />
- The rest of the world continues to grow strongly, with emerging Asia and the Euro-area still leading<br />
US: Growth rebounds & inflation eases<br />
120.0<br />
Industrial production<br />
Core inflation<br />
5<br />
115.0<br />
4<br />
110.0<br />
3<br />
105.0<br />
2<br />
99.5<br />
1<br />
Index<br />
95.0<br />
99 01 03 05 07<br />
99 01 03 05 07<br />
0<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
1 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
the charge and growth forecasts still being revised upwards. With inflation risks high in these areas<br />
too, a number of central banks have tightened policy further, and concerns have mounted that rates may<br />
have to rise further than expected.<br />
LOCAL ECONOMY<br />
CONTINUED<br />
OMIGSA view<br />
Chances of a further rate hike at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in August remain high.<br />
While data and event flow will likely determine what happens thereafter, we remain confident that<br />
rates will not rise further. However, rates are unlikely to be lowered anytime soon.<br />
- Strong growth, sustained worries over the large current account deficit and upside surprises to inflation<br />
dominated the local scene over the past three months. As a result, the SA Reserve Bank (SARB) was<br />
left with no option but to raise rates again in June, after leaving rates unchanged at the previous two<br />
meetings.<br />
- Data released by the Reserve Bank over the past quarter confirmed that while production growth in the<br />
economy slowed during the first quarter, consumer and investment spending growth remained buoyant<br />
– the former still growing at an real annual rate of over 7% and the latter by over 15%. As a result,<br />
the deficit on the current account remained large at 7% of GDP.<br />
- More importantly, inflation unexpectedly breached the 6% upper limit of the inflation target range and<br />
looks set to only return to inside the range later this year. To make matters worse, wage demands have<br />
increased sharply and inflation expectations are probably doing so too.<br />
- Risks to local interest rates therefore remain firmly to the upside. While there were some signs of a<br />
moderate slowdown in consumer spending during the second quarter, inflation risks are now of paramount<br />
importance to the central bank.<br />
- Early indicators for the second quarter point to a welcome slowdown in consumer spending growth.<br />
Car sales, typically the most interest rate-sensitive component of consumer spending, have declined<br />
sharply and there were also tentative signs of a slowdown in consumer credit demand, even before the<br />
National Credit Act took effect.<br />
Spending boom & large foreign trade deficit<br />
30<br />
Investment spending growth<br />
Consumer spending growth<br />
Current account balance<br />
10<br />
20<br />
5<br />
0<br />
0<br />
-5<br />
-20<br />
-30<br />
81 86 91 96 01 06<br />
% of GDP<br />
81 86 91 96 01 06<br />
-10<br />
GLOBAL ASSET ALLOCATION<br />
OMIGSA view<br />
Global growth is likely to remain strong for the rest of the year, supporting earnings. Valuations<br />
are not stretched and we are positive on equities over the medium term. We favour emerging<br />
markets over developed markets. Despite bonds offering better value after the recent correction,<br />
we believe that globally bonds have entered a long-term secular bear market. As long-term<br />
investors, we therefore hold no global bonds.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
2<br />
<strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
CONTINUED<br />
- For local investors, the only asset classes that delivered positive returns in June were emerging market<br />
equities and SA cash.<br />
- This reinforced the dichotomy between developed market equities (up 3.2% in rands for the quarter)<br />
and emerging market equities (up 11.3% in rands for the quarter).<br />
- After a good start to the quarter, the US S&P 500 Index experienced some volatility, ending the threemonth<br />
period up 6.3% in dollars but falling 1.8% during June. This was on the back of further shakeups<br />
in the US sub-prime housing market as investors wait to see whether this will spill over into other<br />
markets.<br />
- The rand strengthened against most currencies during the quarter, dampening rand-based returns of<br />
offshore investments.<br />
- Globally, government bond yields rose sharply this quarter before partially retracing. For the period,<br />
global government bonds were down 1.7% in dollars.<br />
- The meltdown in the US sub-prime housing market claimed its first victims, with two hedge funds from<br />
Bear Stearns collapsing dramatically and needing to be bailed out. This put pressure on the financial<br />
sector. However, the fallout from this has not yet spilled over into emerging market spreads and growth<br />
assets.<br />
- Internationally, real estate was heavily affected by the increase in bond yields and ended the quarter<br />
down 6.7% in dollars according to the MSCI World Real Estate index.<br />
Emerging markets relative to world markets<br />
0.2600<br />
0.2500<br />
0.2250<br />
0.2000<br />
0.1800<br />
0.1600<br />
0.2600<br />
0.2500<br />
0.2250<br />
0.2000<br />
0.1800<br />
0.1600<br />
0.1400<br />
0.1400<br />
0.1200<br />
0.1200<br />
0.0967<br />
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 <strong>2007</strong><br />
0.0967<br />
LOCAL ASSET ALLOCATION<br />
OMIGSA view<br />
Thus far, we have seen SA equities perform in line with our base case – lower returns than last<br />
year but still positive and volatile. We remain positive on SA equities and are finding increased<br />
value after the recent correction. We are, however, taking action to reduce exposure to volatility<br />
in the asset class. We remain negative on SA bonds over the short-term, despite the recent pull<br />
back in yields. We find the short end of the curve more attractive from a risk-return perspective.<br />
We prefer property to bonds for the purposes of gaining duration, as well as from a long-term<br />
fundamental perspective.<br />
- After a promising start to the quarter, equity markets were volatile and lost ground in June; pulled down<br />
by divergent sectoral performance.<br />
- Rising interest rates put interest rate-sensitive stocks under pressure, with general retailers down 6.7%<br />
and banks 6.9% lower.<br />
- Resources were 6.8% up for the quarter. But this rally was concentrated and mainly a result of a 20%<br />
rise in BHP Billiton during the quarter.<br />
- Notwithstanding a jittery market during the quarter, the local bourse did deliver another positive return,<br />
with the ALSI up 4.3% and the SWIX up 2.6% for the period.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
3 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
- Bonds retreated further, making June the third worst month for the All Bond Index since December 2001.<br />
The index was down 2.1% in June and 1.7% for the quarter.<br />
- SA listed property, while giving up more ground than bonds in June, ended the quarter still slightly<br />
positive at 0.3%.<br />
- Thus far, an investor would rather have been in SA listed property than local bonds this year, with the<br />
All Bond Index moving sideways year-to-date and listed property delivering a healthy 16.1%.<br />
CONTINUED<br />
FIXED INCOME<br />
OMIGSA view<br />
The more negative inflation outlook exposed the grossly overvalued long end of the bond curve.<br />
Although we were surprised by the extent of the April inflation spike, we have always maintained<br />
that the 12+ maturity band of the bond curve is expensive, hence the large underweight tilt to<br />
this sector. The caution paid off, although it could be argued that yield curve normalisation had<br />
been relatively limited. Twelve-month NCDs offer very good value on a risk-adjusted basis. In the<br />
bond market, we will maintain our defensive position for now, but will be on the lookout for<br />
opportunities to reduce the underweight tilt.<br />
Bond yields retraced in reaction to negative inflation news<br />
%<br />
10<br />
3-Month rate<br />
R196<br />
31-Mar-07<br />
30-Jun-07<br />
9<br />
R153<br />
R157<br />
R186<br />
8<br />
R209<br />
7<br />
- 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30<br />
Term to maturity<br />
- Global bond yields rose in reaction to sticky inflation and the realisation that interest rates are likely<br />
to stay higher for longer.<br />
- Local April inflation data printed worse-than-expected, while a number of developments raised concerns<br />
about the inflation outlook.<br />
- The central bank reacted by raising the repo rate by 50 basis points (bps).<br />
- The yield curve was forced upwards, causing bonds to underperform cash by a significant margin.<br />
- The market has priced another 50 bps increase in the repo rate.<br />
- Twelve-month NCDs are still trading at relatively attractive levels, although we expect limited upward<br />
pressure in the short-term.<br />
- The correction in the bond market is well advanced and short- and medium-dated bonds are starting<br />
to offer some value.<br />
- However, further yield curve normalisation remains a risk considering uncertainty regarding the mediumterm<br />
inflation outlook, which implies potential underperformance by ultra long dated bonds (12+ maturity<br />
band of the All Bond Index).<br />
- An improved inflation outlook and/or further policy tightening may lure bulls back.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
4<br />
<strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
MARKET<br />
AS AT 30 JUNE <strong>2007</strong> DY% PE RATIO 1 MONTH %* 12 MONTH %*<br />
FTSE/JSE All Share Index 2.2 15.9 -1.0 36.9<br />
FTSE/JSE Resources Index 2.0 16.5 0.8 29.5<br />
FTSE/JSE Industrial Index 2.0 15.6 -1.3 48.9<br />
FTSE/JSE Financial Index 3.5 13.1 -4.0 33.1<br />
FTSE/JSE SA Quoted Property Index 6.2 16.2 -3.4 51.0<br />
ALBI BEASSA Bond Index -2.1 7.7<br />
STEFI Money Market Index 0.7 8.3<br />
MSCI World Index (R) -1.6 22.8<br />
MSCI World Index ($) -0.7 24.2<br />
* TOTAL RETURN INDEX PERCENTAGE CHANGE<br />
ECONOMIC INDICATORS<br />
LATEST DATA<br />
PREVIOUS YEAR<br />
EXCHANGE RATES:<br />
Rand/USD June - 07 7.04 7.15<br />
Rand/UK Pound June - 07 14.12 13.22<br />
Rand/Euro June - 07 9.53 9.09<br />
Rand/Aus$ June - 07 6.01 5.31<br />
COMMODITY PRICES:<br />
Gold Price ($) June - 07 649.65 614.25<br />
Gold Price (R) June - 07 4 590.12 4 382.84<br />
Oil Price ($) June - 07 71.80 72.85<br />
INTEREST RATES<br />
Prime Overdraft June - 07 13.00% 11.00%<br />
BA Rate June - 07 9.54% 7.40%<br />
R157 Long-bond Yield June - 07 8.49% 8.65%<br />
INFLATION:<br />
CPI (y-o-y) May - 07 6.9% 3.9%<br />
CPIX (y-o-y) May - 07 6.4% 4.1%<br />
REAL ECONOMY:<br />
GDP Growth (y-o-y) Q1 - 07 5.1% 5.0%<br />
HCE Growth (y-o-y) Q1 - 07 7.7% 6.5%<br />
(Household Consumption Expenditure)<br />
GFCF Growth (y-o-y) Q1 - 07 16.2% 11.4%<br />
(Gross Fixed Capital Formation)<br />
Manufacturing Production (y-o-y) May - 07 6.6% 5.5%<br />
(Seasonally adjusted)<br />
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS:<br />
Trade Balance (cumulative12 month) May - 07 - $9.1bn - $5.7bn<br />
Current Account (% of GDP) Q1 - 07 -7.0% -6.4%<br />
Forex Reserves (incl. gold) June - 07 $27.8bn $24.7bn<br />
(All information relates to month end.)<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
5<br />
<strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
SA private equity in<br />
the spotlight<br />
INSIGHTS<br />
Mark Gevers<br />
Head: Private Equity<br />
In what has been a spectacular growth year for the local private equity industry, investors poured<br />
some R14 billion into private equity funds in 2006, pushing funds under management in the<br />
sector up by an impressive 32% to R56.2 billion, according to the latest South African Venture<br />
Capital (SAVCA) Industry Review.<br />
OMIGSA’s Alternative Assets division has played a significant role in this growth. As one of the country’s<br />
leading funders of private equity and infrastructure transactions, it can boast a combined portfolio of<br />
investments valued at over R9 billion (as at 31 December, 2006). The division participated in some of the<br />
largest and highest-profile deals of the last 12 months.<br />
A handful of high-profile transactions have captured the media headlines, including the likes of Peermont<br />
Global, Primedia, Brandcorp, Edcon and Consol. However, industry activity has been far broader than this,<br />
with approximately R6 billion invested across 803 different transactions, excluding these big deals, SAVCA<br />
reports. Almost 80% of the investment (R3.4 billion) was into black-owned and controlled companies,<br />
continuing the dominance of black economic empowerment (BEE) transactions in the sector.<br />
Two important developments have helped to smooth the way for the excellent growth in the asset class:<br />
new amendments to capital gains tax and the unveiling of the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI)’s<br />
BEE Codes of Good Practice. Announced by Finance Minister Trevor Manuel in his February <strong>2007</strong> Budget<br />
speech, the capital gains tax changes have provided clarity on the taxation of private equity realisation<br />
gains, while the new BEE Codes have introduced specific requirements for companies that should help<br />
to further underpin the important role of private equity in financing BEE transactions.<br />
The local asset class remains very popular with international investors, as about 75% of the funds raised<br />
last year came from offshore, according to KPMG. Offshore investors are attracted to South African<br />
companies’ relatively high earnings growth prospects combined with their relatively low gearing.<br />
Although trustees of local institutions generally remain wary of investing in private equity – largely due<br />
to a lack of reliable performance data, worries over illiquidity and a lack of understanding – a recent<br />
paper has shed some light on the topic. A study examining the suitability of private equity as an investment<br />
for South African pension funds (by I. Missankov, R. van Dyk, A. van Biljon, M. Hayes and W. van der<br />
Veen), presented at the Convention of the Actuarial Society of South Africa in October 2006, was generally<br />
favourable, concluding that there are certain benefits for pension funds that invest in private equity.<br />
Research on a sample set of 11 local private equity funds over a 13-year period found that they delivered<br />
a performance premium of 18% per annum (before costs) relative to the FTSE-JSE Africa All Share Index,<br />
while providing a low correlation to the performance of conventional asset classes. The private equity<br />
funds’ risk-adjusted performance was also good relative to other asset classes over the period.<br />
In terms of asset allocation, it found that if pension funds allocate up to 10% of assets to private equity<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
6 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
it improves the efficiency of a portfolio and contributes to meeting real return investment objectives.<br />
However, the regulatory maximum is currently 5% - consistent with international practice.<br />
Looking ahead, industry experts agree that competition for private equity deals will heat up even further,<br />
given the keen interest being demonstrated by foreign private equity players like Blackstone Capital and<br />
Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR). According to the latest SAVCA and Deloitte survey of private<br />
equity confidence, sentiment remains very positive regarding future industry activity.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
7 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
New private equity<br />
fund on the way<br />
Mark Gevers<br />
Head: Private Equity<br />
INSIDE OMIGSA<br />
Following on the heels of the remarkable success of the first <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Multi-Manager Private<br />
Equity Fund, OMIGSA’s Alternative Investments boutique is readying itself for the launch of its<br />
second multi-manager private equity fund, “<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Multi-Manager Private Equity Fund 2”.<br />
With the first fund closed to new investors, Fund 2 will offer the same structural advantages as<br />
its predecessor, but aims to provide an even greater diversification of fund managers, as well<br />
as unique exposure to the attractive international private equity space.<br />
FIRST FUND WOWS ITS INVESTORS<br />
The exceptional performance of our first multi-manager fund during the 13 months since inception has<br />
certainly paved the way for the success of this second fund, and helps to prove that the benefits of<br />
diversification can be achieved if invested with the right fund managers.<br />
As shown in the graph, the fund has recorded an<br />
annualised net return (after tax and performance<br />
fees) of between 54.1% and 68% since May 2006,<br />
depending on the tax status of the investor. It<br />
should be stressed that this performance measure<br />
is conservative, since we consistently use the<br />
discounted valuation methodology advocated by<br />
the European Venture Capital Association (EVCA)<br />
and endorsed by the South African Venture Capital<br />
Association (SAVCA).<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Multi-Manager Private Equity Fund 1<br />
The first Multi-Manager Fund is invested across<br />
three different funds managed by some of South<br />
Africa’s most experienced private equity managers<br />
– OMIGSA Private Equity Fund 1 (comprising about<br />
40% of the fund), Ethos Private Equity Fund V (with<br />
a target 30% weighting) and Brait Private Equity<br />
Fund IV (also targeted at 30%). While OMIGSA’s Source: OMIGSA<br />
fund features several underlying investments that<br />
are relatively mature, both Ethos and Brait have been actively building up their investments over the<br />
period.<br />
A significant driver of the excellent performance to date in the first fund has been the fact that the<br />
underlying investments have delivered strong returns from day one. These include stakes in Pepkor, one<br />
of South Africa’s largest retail chains, Foodcorp and Life Healthcare, all of which have recorded strong<br />
operational performances. These mature investments have helped to mitigate the “J-Curve” effect on<br />
cash returns common in private equity funds, in which cash returns are typically negative or low in the<br />
short-term.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
8 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
CONTINUED<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong>’s Multi-Manager Private Equity Fund 1 has also benefited from new investments by the<br />
underlying Ethos Private Equity Fund V in such companies as: Plumblink, a leading plumbing and sanitaryware<br />
merchant; retailer Moresport, which owns Sportsman’s Warehouse and Outdoor Warehouse; Kanderlane,<br />
dominant in the independent deployment of ATMs; and delisted financial services broker Alexander Forbes.<br />
Meanwhile, Brait Private Equity Fund IV has more recently participated in the buyout and delisting of<br />
Consol Glass, and acquired Nature’s Choice Holdings, a food wholesaling and logistics group. Both the<br />
Ethos and Brait funds are on four- to five-year active investment programmes that will see them buying<br />
up stakes in targeted, unlisted companies, all of which are expected to contribute “alpha” (above marketrelated<br />
returns) to the <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Multi-Manager Fund in the coming years, while also adding further<br />
diversification benefits.<br />
With each of the Ethos and Brait funds closed to new investors, our Multi-Manager Private Equity Fund<br />
2 will now offer the only way for investors to gain access to the exciting potential of these, as well as<br />
other, underlying funds.<br />
NEW FUND OFFERS SIMILAR ADVANTAGES<br />
The new fund will enjoy the same structural advantages as its predecessor, helping to overcome some<br />
of the traditional drawbacks of private equity investing such as illiquidity.<br />
Thanks to its life wrapper structure on the Fairbairn platform, it offers tax advantages, while also providing<br />
investors with a leveraged facility in that their funds may be geared on a one-to-one basis.<br />
OMIGSA also provides a liquidity facility, allowing participants to sell their investment in the fund on a<br />
quarterly basis at a 5% discount to valuation. However, by its nature private equity is a long-term investment,<br />
and we encourage people to invest on that basis. After all, the real returns in private equity are unlocked<br />
when the underlying investments are sold, typically after at least a five year holding period.<br />
UNIQUE AMONG SA PRIVATE EQUITY FUNDS<br />
An exciting new feature of the second fund is that it will invest in an even more diverse array of underlying<br />
fund managers and unlisted investments. These will include OMIGSA Private Equity Funds 1 and 2, Brait<br />
Fund IV and Ethos Fund V, as well as the Lereko Metier Fund 1.<br />
To provide a small indication of their holdings, OMGISA Fund 2 already holds a stake in Oceanic Bank, a<br />
fast-growing Nigerian commercial bank, and the Lereko Metier Fund 1 has invested in IT company Datapro.<br />
To these we also expect to add between one to three more funds, of which at least one is likely to offer<br />
exposure to the rapidly growing international private equity market, an exciting prospect for local investors.<br />
With each of these funds holding between six and 10 private equity investments, investors in our Multi-<br />
Manager Fund 2 will ultimately have exposure to more than 50 different investments, including some<br />
offshore, creating an exceptionally diverse portfolio and one that will be unique in the South African<br />
private equity space.<br />
Even better news is that both minimum investment levels and costs will remain low. As with its predecessor,<br />
we are endeavouring to charge the lowest management and performance fees of any private equity multimanaged<br />
fund in the country.<br />
At the same time, the minimum required investment will be small enough to allow smaller institutions<br />
and sophisticated retail investors access to the diversification and return benefits of the asset class usually<br />
reserved for larger institutions. With such attractive features, we are very optimistic about the prospects<br />
for the new fund - both in terms of its performance and take-up by investors.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
9 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
Performance overview –<br />
2nd quarter <strong>2007</strong><br />
Thabo Dloti<br />
Chief Executive Officer<br />
INSIDE OMIGSA<br />
The JSE reached a new high of 29 510 on 20 June, but this came at the price of increased volatility<br />
for the period under review to end-June. During the first six months of the year, the total return<br />
of the FTSE /JSE All Share Index was 15.1%. This compares with an 18.8% return recorded for<br />
the first six months of last year. The index continued to climb in early <strong>July</strong>, reaching yet another<br />
historic high. As many market commentators forecast, it seems that the local market is heading<br />
for lower nominal returns this year. Nonetheless, the ALSI still ended the quarter 4.3% higher<br />
despite some volatility<br />
However, analysts have<br />
commented that the<br />
nature of these returns has<br />
changed. In the past, the<br />
rise in the market was<br />
fairly broad-based across<br />
most sectors. But much of<br />
the ALSI’s performance<br />
during the second quarter<br />
can be attributed to the<br />
resource (6.8%) and<br />
industrial (5.6%) sectors.<br />
The interest rate-sensitive<br />
sectors have been looking<br />
a bit anaemic, as a result<br />
of resurgent inflationary<br />
pressures and rising<br />
interest rates. The General<br />
30,000<br />
29,000<br />
28,000<br />
27,000<br />
26,000<br />
25,000<br />
24,000<br />
23,000<br />
22,000<br />
21,000<br />
JSE All Share (Capital Only)<br />
(30 June 2006 to 29 June <strong>2007</strong>)<br />
20,000<br />
Jun-06 Jul-06 Aug-06 Sep-06 Oct-06 Nov-06 Dec-06 Jan-07 Feb-07 Mar-07 Apr-07 May-07<br />
Retailers sector declined 6.7% during the second quarter of this year, while Financials fell 1.7%. Banks<br />
slipped 6.9% during this period.<br />
On the whole, the outlook for shares remains positive based on still sound fundamentals – but further<br />
volatility is expected for the remainder of the year.<br />
INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE REMAINS STRONG<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group SA’s (OMIGSA) Macro Strategy Investments boutique has also demonstrated<br />
its ability to deliver top performance across the risk spectrum in the institutional space.<br />
This boutique has a proven track record of delivering consistent outperformance through its active asset<br />
allocation and continues to shine in the Alexander Forbes Global Manager Watch (Large) survey for the<br />
period to end-June this year.<br />
In this moderate risk category, the segregated funds managed by this boutique ranked among the top three<br />
over one, three and five years (see graph on page 11).<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
10 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
OMIGSA Macro Strategy Investments vs.<br />
AF Global Manager Watch (Large) - Returns to 30.06.07<br />
12 Months<br />
3 Years<br />
5 Years<br />
Investec<br />
38.0%<br />
Allan Gray<br />
36.4%<br />
Allan Gray<br />
26.9%<br />
OMIGSA<br />
34.3%<br />
OMIGSA<br />
35.7%<br />
Oasis<br />
24.4%<br />
Oasis<br />
34.0%<br />
Prudential<br />
35.2%<br />
OMIGSA<br />
24.0%<br />
Allan Gray<br />
33.9%<br />
Investec<br />
34.8%<br />
Prudential<br />
23.5%<br />
RMBAM<br />
32.8%<br />
Coronation<br />
34.8%<br />
RMBAM<br />
23.3%<br />
Prudential<br />
31.6%<br />
Oasis<br />
34.2%<br />
Cadiz Af rican Harvest<br />
23.2%<br />
Coronation<br />
31.5%<br />
Cadiz African Harvest<br />
33.9%<br />
Coronation<br />
23.1%<br />
Sanlam<br />
31.4%<br />
RMBAM<br />
33.3%<br />
Investec<br />
23.0%<br />
Stanlib<br />
30.4%<br />
Sanlam<br />
33.3%<br />
Sanlam<br />
22.0%<br />
Metropolitan<br />
29.8%<br />
Stanlib<br />
33.0%<br />
Metropolitan<br />
21.3%<br />
Cadiz African Harvest<br />
29.8%<br />
Metropolitan<br />
32.9%<br />
Stanlib<br />
20.7%<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%<br />
Source: Alexander Forbes Asset Consultants<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%<br />
Macro Strategy Investments has also demonstrated its ability to deliver exceptional performance in the<br />
conservative fund space with its Profile Stable Growth Fund ranked second in the Alexander Forbes Global<br />
Manager Watch (Conservative) survey over the one year period to end-June <strong>2007</strong>. This fund does not yet<br />
have a three year track record within the survey. In addition, Macro Strategy Investments has a more<br />
conservative offering in this space with Profile Capital, which is targeted at beating cash returns.<br />
The more aggressively positioned Profile Pinnacle Fund is ranked in the top two over three years and is<br />
the top performing fund over both one and five years in the Alexander Forbes Global Manager Watch<br />
(Dynamic) survey.<br />
Profile Pinnacle Fund vs AF Global Manager Watch<br />
(Dynamic) - Returns to 30.06.07<br />
12 Months<br />
3 Years<br />
5 Years<br />
OMIGSA<br />
(Pinnacle)<br />
34.1%<br />
Coronation<br />
36.4%<br />
OMIGSA<br />
(Pinnacle)<br />
25.0%<br />
Momentum<br />
32.3%<br />
Coronation<br />
31.1%<br />
OMIGSA<br />
(Pinnacle)<br />
35.6%<br />
Coronation<br />
23.9%<br />
Stanlib<br />
31.0%<br />
Stanlib<br />
35.2%<br />
RMBAM<br />
22.8%<br />
RMBAM<br />
30.6%<br />
SY mmETRY<br />
34.1%<br />
Stanlib<br />
22.7%<br />
IS<br />
30.5%<br />
Allan Gray<br />
29.4%<br />
Momentum<br />
33.1%<br />
SY mmETRY<br />
22.7%<br />
Metropolitan<br />
29.3%<br />
RMBAM<br />
32.4%<br />
SMM 70<br />
22.2%<br />
SMM 70<br />
28.9%<br />
Metropolitan<br />
32.3%<br />
Momentum<br />
21.4%<br />
SYmmETRY<br />
28.1%<br />
Investec<br />
27.0%<br />
SMM 70<br />
32.0%<br />
Metropolitan<br />
20.5%<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%<br />
Source: Alexander Forbes Asset Consultants<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%<br />
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
11 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
Consistent outperformance is what matters to the long-term investor and Macro Strategy Investments has<br />
proven that it can deliver attractive returns, whatever the investor’s risk preference.<br />
RETAIL PERFORMANCE - WHETHER YOU LIKE IT MILD, MEDIUM OR HOT<br />
A number of unit trust funds managed by OMIGSA are top quartile performers in their respective Association<br />
of Collective Investments (ACI) categories over various periods ended 30 June <strong>2007</strong>. These funds range<br />
across the risk spectrum, providing clients with a choice of top performing funds whether they like their<br />
investments mild, medium or hot.<br />
CONTINUED<br />
Local fund returns - 3 Years to 30 June <strong>2007</strong><br />
The graph displays annualised returns for all local <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> unit trust funds over three years (where the fund has<br />
been in existence for a minimum of three years). Nominal returns have been impressive across the board, with equity<br />
funds leading the performance ranking due to the bull market.<br />
MILD (RISK RATINGS 1 & 2)<br />
Our “mild” category includes risk ratings 1 and 2, based on <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong>’s rating scale of 1 to 5. These funds<br />
are aimed at investors seeking capital protection, a regular income stream or some (but not primarily)<br />
capital growth. The funds are often popular with older investors, in or nearing retirement.<br />
The <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Income Fund (risk rating 1) is ranked second in its category over both two- and three-year<br />
periods. It aims to pay out a high regular income without putting the investor's money at undue risk. This<br />
fund has delivered a return of 8.3% per year over a three-year period.<br />
The <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Enhanced Income and Real Income funds (both risk rating 2) are aimed at the more<br />
aggressive income investor and include limited exposure to riskier assets, such as property or equities.<br />
These funds fall into the Fixed Income Varied Specialist category and may therefore not be ranked against<br />
other unit trust funds in this sector. They have exceeded their respective benchmarks over the one-year<br />
period and have delivered in excess of money market returns for those income investors who were willing<br />
to accept higher risk. The Enhanced Income Fund and the Real Income Fund have delivered one-year returns<br />
of 11.7% and 12.1% respectively.<br />
The Galaxy Defensive Fund of Funds (also risk rating 2) has proved popular with more conservative<br />
investors who still want to achieve inflation-beating long term growth. It is easy to see why – as<br />
this fund is ranked among the top three funds in its sector over one, two, three and five years for<br />
the period ended 30 June <strong>2007</strong>.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
12<br />
<strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
CONTINUED<br />
MEDIUM (RISK RATING 3)<br />
Our “medium” category is based on risk rating 3, within <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong>’s rating scale of 1 to 5. These funds<br />
are aimed at investors seeking a moderate income stream and long-term capital growth. They tend to<br />
offer investors access to multiple asset classes, and tend to be less volatile than equity-only funds.<br />
The <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Balanced Fund (risk rating 3) invests across equities, bonds, property and cash with<br />
a bias towards equities offering longer term value rather than those with more cyclical returns. As<br />
this balanced portfolio offers exposure to all sectors of the market, it has a lower risk profile than<br />
a pure equity fund. The Balanced Fund has been a top quartile performer over both one- and twoyear<br />
periods ending 30 June <strong>2007</strong>, delivering returns in excess of 32% a year over both these periods.<br />
The <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Dynamic Floor Fund (risk rating 3) strives for long-term capital growth as well as<br />
some level of capital protection. This fund uses a quantitative risk model to profit from a rising share<br />
market and aims to protect against capital losses in a weak market. The fund invests across shares,<br />
bonds and cash – moving from shares into fixed interest investments when the fund's value drops<br />
below a predetermined “floor”. This fund falls into the ACI’s Absolute Targeted category and may<br />
therefore not be ranked. However, this fund has far outstripped its benchmark of CPI +4% over one,<br />
two- and three-year periods, delivering a return of 10.8% over the one-year period. It is notable that<br />
this fund has outstripped its benchmark by an average of 6.8% a year since inception in November<br />
2002, delivering a return of 14.5% a year.<br />
HOT (RISK RATINGS 4 & 5)<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> offers a number of aggressive asset allocation and equity-only funds, which have a risk<br />
rating of 4 or 5, that have delivered top performance for the period to end-June this year. These funds<br />
aim for long-term capital growth and may be quite volatile in the short term.<br />
The <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Flexible Fund (risk rating 4) is ranked first in its sector over three years and delivered<br />
a return of 36.1% a year over this period. This fund achieves its performance objectives, firstly, by<br />
actively moving between these asset classes to take advantage of changing economic and market<br />
conditions and, secondly, through focused stock selection based on in-house research. The asset<br />
manager is free to move between asset classes and the fund’s only asset allocation constraint is a<br />
maximum offshore holding of 15%.<br />
Two of the funds in the extensive Domestic Equity General sector have also achieved top quartile<br />
rankings. The <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Growth Fund (risk rating 4) is a top quartile performer over both one- and<br />
five years while the <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> High Yield Opportunity Fund (risk rating 4) is a top performer over<br />
both five- and seven years, but is currently closed to new investment. These funds delivered 44.6%<br />
and 40.2% respectively over the one-year period.<br />
For those who like it extra hot by playing a specific market sector, a number of <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong>’s specialist<br />
equity funds have also fared exceptionally well. Refer to www.oldmutualunittrusts.co.za for more<br />
detail on the performance of these funds.<br />
A LITTLE INTERNATIONAL FLAVOUR<br />
We are happy to report that a number of the unit trusts managed by <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Asset Managers<br />
(UK) (OMAM UK) have also fared exceptionally well in their respective sectors. International exposure<br />
helps in building a well-diversified portfolio. An offshore investment reduces portfolio risk through<br />
geographic diversification, while also lowering emerging market and currency risk. It also provides<br />
exposure to companies or industries not available locally.<br />
One of the funds that has fared exceptionally well is the <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> International Growth Fund of<br />
Funds which is ranked in the top quartile of its sector over one, two, three, five and seven years (risk<br />
rating 4, but please note risk rating does not take currency risk into account). This fund invests and<br />
actively moves between a spread of international equity, bond and money market unit trusts. The<br />
one-year return of this fund is 17.1% (in rand terms).<br />
So whether your investment preference is mild, medium or hot, whether you prefer local flavour or<br />
some foreign spice, you’ll find OMIGSA geared towards delivering excellent performance.<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group<br />
13 <strong>Fundamentals</strong> - <strong>July</strong> <strong>2007</strong>
CONTACT US<br />
Mike van Heerden<br />
Senior Executive<br />
Business Development (SA)<br />
Tel: (021) 509-5082<br />
mvheerden@omigsa.com<br />
SOURCES<br />
Standard & Poor’s Fund Services, Inet-Bridge and OMIGSA. Lump sum investments to the end of June <strong>2007</strong>, distributions reinvested<br />
and NAV-NAV prices used (i.e. initial charges excluded). Total expense ratio figures are annualised for 6 months to end June <strong>2007</strong>. Unit<br />
trusts are generally medium- to long-term investments. The value of your units may go down as well as up and past performance is no<br />
indication of future growth. Fluctuations or movements in exchange rates may cause the value of underlying international investments<br />
to go up or down. Unit trusts can engage in borrowing and scrip lending. The fund’s TER reflects the percentage of the average Net<br />
Asset Value of the portfolio that was incurred as charges, levies and fees related to the management of the portfolio. During the phasein<br />
period Total Expense Ratios do not include information gathered over a full year. A higher TER does not necessarily imply a poor<br />
return, nor does a low TER imply a good return. The current TER cannot be regarded as an indication of future TERs. A schedule of fees<br />
and charges and maximum commissions is available from the company/intermediary. The daily price is based on the current value of<br />
the fund’s assets plus income (minus expenses) divided by the number of units in issue. Specialist equity funds may hold greater risk<br />
as exposure limits to a single security may be higher. A fund of funds unit trust invests only in other collective investment schemes,<br />
which may levy their own charges. A feeder fund portfolio is a portfolio that, apart from assets in liquid form, consists solely of units<br />
in a single portfolio of a collective investment scheme. Certain funds may be capped to enable them to be managed in accordance with<br />
their mandates.<br />
FUND MANAGERS AND TOTAL EXPENSE RATIO<br />
Fund TER Boutique Fund Manager<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Income 0.86% Fixed Income Jennifer Sheehy<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Enhanced Income 1.14% Fixed Income Wikus Furstenberg<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Real Income 1.38% Macro Strategy Investments Peter Brooke<br />
Galaxy Defensive Fund of Funds 1.68% SYmmETRY Multi-Manager Manager selection and<br />
monitoring by SYmmETRY<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Balanced Fund 1.34% Macro Strategy Investments Peter Brooke<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Dynamic Floor Fund 1.70% Absolute Return Investments Garth Taljard<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Flexible Fund 1.41% Macro Strategy Investments Peter Brooke<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Growth Fund 1.15% Select Equity Investments Richard Hasson<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> High Yield Opportunity Fund 1.43% Value Investments Boutique Michael Schröder<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> International Growth Fund of Funds 2.69% OMAM UK* Tracy Lander<br />
* Not part of the OMIGSA structure<br />
Thabo Dloti<br />
Chief Executive Officer<br />
Tel: (021) 504-7375<br />
tdloti@omigsa.com<br />
Jerry Mnisi<br />
Senior Executive<br />
Business Development (SA)<br />
Tel: (011) 217-1751<br />
jmnisi@omigsa.com<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group (South Africa) (Pty) Limited is a licensed financial services provider, FSP 604, approved by the Registrar of Financial Services Providers<br />
(www.fsb.co.za) to provide intermediary services and advice in terms of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services Act 37 of 2002. Reg No 1993/003023/07<br />
<strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group is a wholly owned subsidiary of <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> (South Africa Limited). The investment portfolios may be market-linked or policy based.<br />
Investors’ rights and obligations are set out in the relevant contracts. Market fluctuations and changes in rates of exchange or taxation may have an effect on the<br />
value, price or income of investments. Since the performance of financial markets fluctuates, an investor may not get back the full amount invested. Past performance<br />
is not necessarily a guide to future investment performance. Information and opinions have been compiled or arrived at by <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group (South<br />
Africa) (Pty) Limited - OMIGSA - from sources believed to be reliable, but OMIGSA does not accept liability for any loss arising from the use hereof nor makes<br />
any representation as to their accuracy or completeness. Any underlying research or analysis has been procured by OMIGSA for its own purposes and may have<br />
been acted on by OMIGSA or an associate for its or their own purposes. <strong>Old</strong> <strong>Mutual</strong> Investment Group (South Africa) (Pty) Limited , P.O. Box 878, Cape Town, 8000,<br />
<strong>Mutual</strong>park, Jan Smuts Drive, Pinelands, 7405.<br />
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