Land Use Scenarios - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

pik.potsdam.de

Land Use Scenarios - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

PRELUD

E

PRospective Environmental analysis

of Land Use Development in Europe

-1-

[TGR/THE] -


PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

Scenarios & Policy Life Cycle

PRELUDE

Problem

signalled

Problem

recognised

Measures

taken

Problem

controlled

Public awareness / Policy attention

Scenarios

Distance to

target

-2-

[TGR/THE] -


EEA Scenarios & Outlooks

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Distance-to-Target

• policy simulation / evaluation

• what-if …?, trend analyses

• quantitative analyses

Scenario Analysis

• policy agenda setting

• emerging issues, surprises

• qualitative analyses

Experts, Data &

Modelling

Projections, Outlooks

(short-term)

Stakeholders

& Experts

Scenarios, Story & Simulation

(long-term)

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

2000 2010 2020

☺ Issue


European Land Use Change Scenarios

The main driving forces behind land use change

are climate change, population growth and

technical and economic development,

particularly of the transport and agriculture

sectors.

-3-

[TGR/THE] -


Why Land Use Scenarios?

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

First Expert Meeting (Jun 2002)

Second Expert Meeting (Nov 2002)

Project Definition (2003)

-4-

[TGR/THE] -


The PRELUDE Project

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Project aim:

To expore plausible long-term developments in land

use and their effects on the environment.

The land use scenarios to be developed will provide

a context against which the potential of

(environmental) policy initiatives can be judged.

-5-

[TGR/THE] -


The Project Team

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Prelude EEA Team

• Overall coordination & implementation

EEA Advisory Committee

• Advises and supports the EEA team

Facilitation & scenario building (External support)

• Advises and Facilitates the stakeholder process

Scenario analysis & modelling (External support)

• Develop the supporting quantitative analyses

-6-

[TGR/THE] -


Approach

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Current

Situation

Land use type A

Land use type B

Land use type C

Future

...

(1) What Changes?

...

(2) Where?

...

(3) Env. Impacts?

-7-

[TGR/THE] -


Scenario Development

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

EEA

Experts

‘Story-and-Simulation‘

14

Quant. Scen.

12

Stakeholders

10

8

6

4

2

0

2000 2010 2020

Qual. Scen

Land Use

☺ Biodiv.


European Land Use Change Scenarios

The main driving forces behind land use change

are climate change, population growth and

technical and economic development,

particularly of the transport and agriculture

sectors.

The environmental impactsof land use change

are complex, and may affect air quality, water

quality and quantity, landscape structure and

biodiversity …

Data &

Modelling

Group(s)

-8-

[TGR/THE] -


Stakeholder Panel

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

A selected group of

stakeholders invited to

develop scenarios with us.

POLICY

EU-level authorities

National-level authorities

International Organisation

_

Group composition:

3

2

9

RESEARCH/SCIENCE__

Natural Sciences

Social Sciences

Information Technology

6

14

3

4

10

Policy

Research

Interest Groups

Independants

INTEREST GROUPS

Business/Industry

Agriculture/Forestry

NGOs: Nature, Culture, …

INDEPENDANTS

__

__

-9-

[TGR/THE] -


PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

Stakeholder Panel Workshop

PRELUDE

-10-

[TGR/THE] -


PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

From Stories to Simulations

PRELUDE

Scenario

Stories

Translate

Drivers

& Rules

Modelling

Land Use

& Impacts

-11-

[TGR/THE] -


PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

‘Straight-Forward Modelling‘

PRELUDE

Scenario

Stories

Drivers

(words to numbers)

Spatial Patterns

(allocation ‘rules‘)

Quantified change

land use

Land Use

Maps

Environm.

Impacts

-12-

[TGR/THE] -


‘Borrow & Approximate‘

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Scenario

Stories

Drivers

(words to numbers)

Spatial Patterns

(allocation ‘rules‘)

Quantified change

land use

Land Use

Maps

Environm.

Impacts

-13-

[TGR/THE] -


‘Overlaying Known Maps‘

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Scenario

Stories

Drivers

(words to numbers)

Spatial Patterns

(allocation ‘rules‘)

Quantified change

land use

Land Use

Maps

Environm.

Impacts

-14-

[TGR/THE] -


Mix Different Approaches

PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

Scenario

Stories

Drivers

(words to numbers)

Spatial Patterns

(allocation ‘rules‘)

Quantified change

land use

Land Use

Maps

Environm.

Impacts

-15-

[TGR/THE] -


PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe

PRELUDE

-16-

[TGR/THE] -

More magazines by this user
Similar magazines