Annex 1 - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

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Annex 1 - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Introduction

This Annex gives an overview of the variability in the ATEAM

climate and land use scenarios. Europe-wide summaries of

variability are of limited value because they do not inform us about

how the variability differs across the European environment. To

overcome this problem the variability was summarised per

Environmental Zone (EnZ). The EnZs are part of the statistically

derived Environmental Stratification (EnS) (Metzger et al., 2005)

which is used in the Vulnerability Assessment.

Comparison by Environmental Zone


For the comparison of the climate change scenarios we

followed the approach by Ruosteenoja et al. 1 and plotted mean

temperature and precipitation change against each other for

four seasons.

As can be seen from the examples on this page, there is strong

agreement between GCMs and scenarios for some EnZs and

seasons. In other cases there is considerable disagreement in

the extent of change, and for precipitation sometimes also in

the trend. In many cases the variability between GCMs is

greater than the variability between scenarios.

Alpine North Lusitanian

JUN - AUG

0 2 4 6 8

DEC - FEB

50 agreement

between

25

0

-25

GCMs /

scenarios

precipitation change (%)

0 2 4 6 8

Alpine South Mediterranean South

JUN - AUG

SEP - NOV

precipitation change (%)

SCENARIO

50

25

0

-25

considerable

variability

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

Pannonian Atlantic South

MAR - MAY

JUN - AUG

variability

between GCMs

greater than

between

scenarios

precipitation change (%)

1 Ruosteenoja, K., T.R. Carter, K. Jylhä & H. Tuomenvirta, 2003:

Future climate world regions: an intercomparison of model-based

projections for the new IPCC emissions scenarios. The Finish

50

25

0

-25

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

Environment 644, Finish Environment Institute. temperature change (°

temperature change (°

C)

C)

Comparison of climate change scenarios


Variability between land use scenarios for 2080

The variability between the SRES scenarios has been plotted in a

clustered pie chart. The area-percentage covered by the main

land uses are plotted per scenario. There are clear differences

between the scenarios and between the EnZs, as can be seen

here for the three Atlanic EnZs.

Variability between GCMs on the land use scenarios for 2080

The land use change scenarios were calculated for the all SRES

scenarios using the HadCM3 GCM data. In order to incorporate

the variability between GCMs, the A2 scenario was calculated for

all ATEAM GCMs. Clustered pie charts for the A2 scenarios

express the variability between GCMs per EnZ The variability is

not very great, as shown here for the Atlantic EnZs.

land use change

The different scenarios have very different impacts on the actual

land use change. The change in main land use types between

1990 and 2080 is plotted for the different scenarios and the

HadCM3 GCM.

Please note

The land use change scenarios are only created for the EU+

countries (EU15 + Switzerland + Norway). The statistics can

therefore only be calculated for the EU+ part of the EnZs.

Because the Pannonian EnZ covers only a very limited part of the

EU+ in was merged with the Continental EnZ for the land use

change statistics.

30

15

0

-15

-30

Atlantic North Atlantic Central Lusitanian

PIE CHARTS LEGEND LAND USE CHANGE LEGEND

land use type scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2

Comparison of land use change scenarios


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG

SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

temperature change (° C)

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080–A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type scenario

30

15

0

-15

A1

A2

B1

B2

-30

Alpine North - ALN


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG

SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

temperature change (° C)

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type scenario

30

15

0

-15

A1

A2

B1

B2

-30

Boreal - BOR


Nemoral - NEM

50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

MAR - MAY

0 2 4 6 8

SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

SCENARIO

GCM

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

30

15

0

-15

-30

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type scenario

30

15

0

-15

A1

A2

B1

B2

-30

Atlantic North - ATN


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG

SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

temperature change (° C)

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type scenario

30

15

0

-15

A1

A2

B1

B2

-30

Alpine South - ALS


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG

0 2 4 6 8

MAR - MAY

0 2 4 6 8

SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

SCENARIO

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

temperature change (° C)

30

15

0

-15

-30

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

GCM

land use type scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2

Continental - CON


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type

scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE pie chart legend

30

15

0

-15

-30

Atlantic Central - ATC


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

Please note that the land use change scenarios are only

created for the EU+ countries. The statistics can therefore only

be calculated for the EU+ part of the EnZs. Because the

Pannonian EnZ covers only a very limited part of the EU+ it

was merged with the Continental EnZ for the land use change

statistics.

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

Pannonian - PAN


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type

scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE pie chart legend

30

15

0

-15

-30

Lusitanian - LUS


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE

pie chart legend

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type scenario

30

15

0

-15

A1

A2

B1

B2

-30

Mediterranean Mountains - MDM


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type

scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE pie chart legend

30

15

0

-15

-30

Mediterranean North - MDN


50

25

0

-25

50

25

0

-25

DEC - FEB MAR - MAY SCENARIO

GCM

0 2 4 6 8

0 2 4 6 8

JUN - AUG SEP - NOV

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

0 2 4 6 8

temperature change (° C)

LAND USE CHANGE (%)

1990 - 2080

land use type

scenario

A1

A2

B1

B2

precipitation change (%)

precipitation change (%)

2080 variability

LAND USE SCENARIOS

2080-A2 variability

GCMs on LAND USE pie chart legend

30

15

0

-15

-30

Mediterranean South - MDS

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