Compensated Reduction of Deforestation

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Compensated Reduction of Deforestation

ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Solving the Climate Puzzle:

The Crucial Role of

Compensated Reduction of

Tropical Deforestation

Annie Petsonk, International Counsel

apetsonk@environmentaldefense.org


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Topics to be covered

• Big picture: Where do global emissions need

to go, and how can Compensated Reduction

of Tropical Deforestation (“CR(

CR”) ) help?

• Case Study: Brazil

• Outlook: If Compensated Reduction

Moves Forward – and If It Doesn’t

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

The Big Picture

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Miami

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

80

Global Emissions: Business-as-Usual Forecast Compared to Emissions

Pathways for Limiting Warming to 2 Degrees and 2.5 Degrees C.

70

2°C: 1.5% decline/yr

60

2.5°C: 1.5% decline/yr

Gt CO2e/yr

50

40

30

20

10

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

80

70

60

Global Emissions: Business-as-Usual Forecast by Region

Emissions from Trop. Def.

Developing Countries

OECD & Trans. Economies

2°C: 1.5% decline/yr

2.5°C: 1.5% decline/yr

Gt CO2e/yr

50

40

30

20

10

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Gt CO2e/y r

80

70

60

50

40

30

Total Emissions: US-CAP Enacted 2008; US Starts 2013; China/India Start 2018

Emissions from Trop. Def.

Rest of Developing Countries

China & India

Rest of OECD & Trans. Economies

United States

2°C: 1.5% decline/yr

20

10

0

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Compensated Reduction of Deforestation:

Reductions 2008-2012 2012 would be compensated in the Post- 2012 Carbon Market

30000

25000

Baseline: 20.000 km 2

Reduction of

Deforestation

20000

15000

10000

5000

77/88 *

88/89

89/90

90/91

Source: INPE 2003, IPAM

* Decade mean

** Biennium mean

91/92

92/94 **

94/95

95/96

96/97

97/98

98/99

99/00

00/01

01/02

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

% reduction of deforestation = ~ 5%

Post-2012 Carbon

Market

Avoided Emission: mean of 12 Million Tons C/yr

Reductions in deforestation 2008-2012 would be

compensated in the post-2012 Carbon Market

Ref: Tropical Deforestation & Climate Change, Moutinho & Schwartzman, eds. (IPAM 2005)

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Case Study: Brazil

The New Zero Deforestation Pact

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

The launching of the Pact at the National

Congress Oct 3 rd , 2007

Marina Silva,

Amapá, Mato

Grosso,

Amazonas &

Acre

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Remaining Forests

Forest

Deforested

Non-forest

Indigenous r.

Int. protection

Sustainable use

Military


Cattle ENVIRONMENTAL Net P. Value DEFENSE (2007-2037)

U$ 900

U$ 0


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Outlook: If Compensated

Reduction Moves Forward

– and If It Doesn’t

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Outlook

Compensated Reduction of Deforestation

– Old problems of baselines, additionality, , leakage,

permanence have been addressed: national

baselines, satellite monitoring, carbon insurance

– CR a top-tier tier issue for Bali climate treaty talks

– Developing countries signaling interest in joining

carbon markets

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

CR Tons: Impact On

Carbon Markets

• Marginal Cost, Carbon Supply, Carbon

Demand, and Market Prices

• Latest Research

• “Crowding Out”: : Price Caps vs. Supply

Increases

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Outlook, Cont’d.

• Tropical Forest Tons Crucial Bridge to Low-

Carbon Future

• ACSA (Lieberman-Warner bill) opens narrow

channel

• Broader channel urgently needed

• If we don’t t save the forests, they will

disappear – with potentially catastrophic

impacts on the climate

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

For more information:

www.environmentaldefense.org/CR

apetsonk@environmentaldefense.org

202-387

387-35003500

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

60.0

Global Emissions (1990-2050)

Gt CO2e/yr

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

If a project can earn

credits by reducing

emissions below

Business-as-Usual in an

uncapped developing

country…

10.0

0.0

Non-Annex I BAU

Annex I w/reductions

…and if industrialized country

emissions are capped…

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

60.0

Global Emissions (1990-2050)

Gt CO2e/yr

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

. . . then trading the

credits lets the

capped nation’s

emissions increase,

with no reduction in

global emissions.

10.0

0.0

Non-Annex I BAU

Annex I w/reductions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

60.0

Global Emissions (1990-2050)

Gt CO2e/yr

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

10.0

0.0

Non-Annex I BAU

Annex I w/reductions

Applying a mandatory

multiplier to transfers

of credits from

uncapped countries,

e.g., a requirement

that two tons be

tendered for every ton

of credit used. . .

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role


ENVIRONMENTAL DEFENSE

60.0

Global Emissions (1990-2050)

Gt CO2e/yr

50.0

40.0

30.0

20.0

. . . and retiring the

additional credits,

boosts the likelihood

that trading with

uncapped nations

yields a global benefit.

10.0

0.0

Non-Annex I BAU

Annex I w/reductions

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Tropical Forests’ Crucial Role

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