(David Viner) (PDF)

The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!
Climate Change
and Tourism:
The Future,
Now!
Dr David Viner
Programme Area Leader
Climate Change
British Council
david.viner@britishcouncil.org

Corporate Outcomes
Increase understanding of the case for tackling climate change
Increase support for the achievement and implementation of international
agreements that address the threats of climate change
Strengthen relationships and networks which lead to action on climate
change mitigation and adaptation
Our corporate outcomes
Will be addressed by interlinking and interdependent strands
Facilitate Mutual Understanding
and Knowledge of Climate Change
Strands
Develop Shared
Values
Promote Joint Action through
Creativity and Innovation

Climate Change Science and its Impacts
The
Sun
Greenhouse gases
trap some outgoing
Longwave Radiation
Atmospheric dust particles
reflect some incoming radiation
Incoming
Shortwave
Radiation
Earth emits energy
back to Space as
Longwave Radiation
The
Earth
Sun’s Energy warms the Earth’s surface

Climate Change Science and its Impacts
IPCC AR4 April 07
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations
of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of
snow and ice, and rising global mean sea level

The Current State of
the Climate
Changes in Global Mean
Temperature, Sea level and
Northern Hemisphere Snow
Cover
Climate Change Science and its Impacts

Climate Change Science and its Impacts
IPCC AR4 April 07
Paleoclimate information supports the interpretation that the warmth of the
last half century is unusual in at least the previous 1300 years. The last time
the polar regions were significantly warmer than present for an extended
period (about 125,000 years ago), reductions in polar ice volume led to 4 to 6
metres of sea level rise.

CO 2
Change in carbon dioxide,
methane and nitrous oxide
concentrations and radiative
forcing
over last 10,000 years,
and (inset) from 1750-2005
[Figure SPM-1].
CH 4
Increase since 1750 is
unprecedented in record
CO 2 radiative forcing has
increased by 20% in last 10
years
N 2 O

Climate Change Science and its Impacts
21st C mid estimate
780
21st C low estimate
580
21st C high estimate
Current carbon dioxide concentrations are geologically incredible.
380
360
(d) Vostok
Current Level
CO2 concentration (ppm)
340
320
300
280
260
240
220
200
180
400
300
200
100
0
Age (kyr BP)

Interdependence
World
Markets
Global
Sustainability
Conventional
Development
Consumerism
Community
National
Enterprise
Local
Stewardship
Autonomy

Climate Change Science and its Impacts

Climate Change Science and its Impacts

Climate Change Science and its Impacts

Ocean Acidification
Climate Change: Science and Impacts

The Climate and its Impacts
Flooding
Climate Change Science and its Impacts

Climate Change Science and its Impacts
Climate Change: Just for the future?
Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003
(Schär et al. 2004,
Nature, 427,
332-336)

Climate Change Science and its Impacts
Swiss Temperature Series 1864-2003
Estimation of Return Periods
10 y
10 y
1000 y
100 y
mean
100 y
1000 y
Extremely
unlikely
event
(Schär et al. 2004,
Nature, 427,

Climate and its Impacts
Tourism
Major International Flows (millions)
Climate Change Science and its Impacts
The Search for
the 4 S’s
Sun
Sea
Sand
Security!

The Climate and its Impacts
Tourism
The Tourism Comfort Index - TCI
A refined version of Mieczkowksi (1985) Index
Uses:
Mean temperature;
Maximum temperature;
Vapour Pressure (humidity);
Total precipitation (rainfall);
Sunshine hours;
Wind.
The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!
The TCI can be constructed for a given site, region or the
world.
Work undertaken with Bas Amelung, ICIS, Maastricht

The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!
1961-90 2050s 2080s 2020s
Tourism Comfort Index, Summer (JJA)

Climate change is an additional
stress factor
to already existing development,
sustainability issues and impacts!

Adaptation and Mitigation
The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!
Tourists:
Go elsewhere, more selective, more knowledgeable, reduce travel!!
Operators:
Local (destination): Depends on size, adapt product, close down -
livelihoods! Local mitigation responses.
Industry:
Source country, large operators, change product, different locations, more
knowledgeable, selective investment, sustainability awareness and planning.
Government:
Destination Investment, sustainable (sensible) planning, integration issues,
where does tourism fit in the overall economy.
Investment in local product, limit outbound tourism expansion.
International and national policies.

Discussion #1
The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!
Climate change and tourism have bi-directional impacts on each other.
Is tourism industry aware of climate change, and at what scale.
Lack of incentives to implement adaptation and mitigation strategies.
Need intervention from Government and raised awareness.
Most SMEs do not have capacity to adapt to climate change.
Different response between, tourists, local operators in destinations,
operators in source countries
International mitigation policies will have an impact upon tourism.

Discussion #2
The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!
Climate Change Impacts occur as a result of a number of complex
relationships: There is a need to identify the interrelationships at
individual locations; Need to take into account wider issues (i.e social
changes, impacts elsewhere, etc.).
There is a need for adaption at all scales, in terms of political; societal; and
physical structures.
There is a pressing need for the implementation of joined up climate
change mitigation and adaptation policies at all levels.
The adaptation costs of the industry (at all scales) need to be accounted
for as well as the costs of climate change mitigation policies.
Climate, climate change and climate change policies are overlooked by
tourism planners.

Off to the Beach!
The Environment, Climate and Tourism: They are Changing!!