Europe's smart power in its region and the world - Europa

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This model is being tried out most obviously in Russia at present. But competition between the models is prevalent in various manifestations and to different degrees in the countries of South Eastern and Eastern Europe. I will explain this with reference to some empirical evidence. Take Serbia first, where people face a concrete choice between the two models in the parliamentary elections on 11 May. It is a choice between a European future and the nationalism of the past. The Serbian people can choose greater freedoms, better living standards, peaceful neighbourly relations – or risk self-imposed isolation, if they choose the nationalistic authoritarianism on offer from those who reject the EU and the European way of life. The signature of the Stabilisation and Association Agreement between the EU and Serbia on Tuesday is a powerful signal to the Serbian people of their EU perspective. Kosovo is often cited in Serbian domestic debates as the reason to look towards Moscow rather than towards Brussels. This is a dangerous game, because Serbia would be the first country to suffer if Kosovo’s fragile economy and governance were to give way. Serbia needs the EU’s guiding hand to make Kosovo function, not undermining influences. Turkey is also in a state of high political tension between competing visions of the country’s future, although the alternatives have a different flavour from those in Serbia. Turkey is undergoing yet another political crisis, and the tensions in the country are multi-dimensional. Most obviously there is the cleavage between the secularists – especially the extreme rather than liberal secularists – on the one hand, and the Muslim democrats many of whom are reformed post-Islamists, on the other hand. But religion is just part of the story. There is also the social cleavage between the political and business elites of the big cities and the entrepreneurial, pious middle classes of Anatolia and other regions. Social mobility and the rise of new economic classes are a vital but often missed part of Turkey’s current development. In my view, we are not doomed to an eternal conflict between the West and the Muslim world. As we used both containment and cooperation to win the Cold War, we should today show resolve against Islamic fundamentalism and firmly contain all kinds of terrorism, while continuing to build bridges with Islam and respect universal democratic values. Turkey plays a key role in this. As Chris Patten has observed, “We haggle and barter in Brussels, but it may well be that it is in Istanbul that we shall write the next chapter in our European story”. Turkey has been negotiating its EU accession since October 2005. This was always going to be a long and winding road, on which the journey is as important as the destination. That is, the EU accession perspective serves as the anchor for reforms that help Turkey to transform itself into a more open, democratic and thus selfconfident society, committed to the values shared by all Europeans. Currently, Turkey is living through another period of political tension following the Court case against the leading political party (AKP). The reaction in the EU to this court case was one of disbelief, since court cases to close political parties are not normal in EU democracies. The EU cannot be indifferent to what happens in Turkey, as Turkey is a candidate country. Let us not paint the devil on the wall, as we don't have to do it now. But, of course, we hope that democratic principles and the rule of law will be applied in line with European standards, so as to avoid negative ramifications for Turkey's EU accession process. 6
I must admit I have, in recent days, started to re-read Orhan Pamuk's novel Snow, which provides a surrealist portrait of contemporary Turkey. I must likewise admit that I am not sure if Pamuk's novel on the tensions between hardline secularists and Muslim democrats is only a surrealist exercise, but instead more like a realistic analysis of today's Turkey. Be that as it may, I am now counting on Turkey’s strong civil society to play a key role by calling for better dialogue. It is now essential to resume the legal and democratic reforms in full and build a spirit of compromise. The revision this week of the infamous article 301 of Turkey’s penal code is a welcome step forward to ensure the freedom of expression for everybody in Turkey, but more needs to be done. Turkey is again at the crossroads and it needs a self-confident civil society to press for democracy, the rule of law and democratic secularism. Ladies and Gentlemen, Russia’s social order is leaning towards authoritarian capitalism, under the rubric “sovereign democracy”. The Russian elite tends to link capitalism and nationalism with personal affluence. European values such as the rule of law and democracy are of secondary importance. Russia is a country of great-power ambitions, and these ambitions are easier to pursue in a period of record highs in oil prices. Russia's foreign policy line has hardened under the Putin regime. I saw this clearly in my own portfolio, in the negotiations to decide Kosovo’s future status. Russia is trying to build a modern nation-state which relies on hard power. By contrast, the EU is a post-modern entity which wields a vast soft power of attractiveness, but which lacks strong sanctioning mechanisms. No wonder it is often hard to find common language. The EU remains attractive to many Russians, for its living standards, culture and open societies, and we should continue to engage with Russian civil society. Further, we should continue to promote the rule of law through our dialogue and agreements with Russia. This may help in the long run make Russia a more reliable partner. Besides a focus on the rule of law would help to reinforce trends already present within Russia. The rise of the middle class and entrepreneurs should eventually mean stronger demands for property rights and by extension, the rule of law. As Dimitri Trenin has pointed out, businessmen need freedom to do well, and the middle classes will form their political constituency. This internal dynamic may lead Russia to reform its legal system and make its political system more accountable as this is key for the rule of law to function properly. It isn’t automatic – but it may lead to this outcome. The tension between the competing models of the European way of life and authoritarian capitalism can also be seen in Ukraine. Since the Orange Revolution in 2004, the country has moved on in democratic transformation, but there are still major challenges in the reforms. The EU is committed to closer ties with Ukraine. We want to reinforce the European neighbourhood policy, in order to build closer economic relations through a deep free trade area, to strengthen political dialogue, to improve contacts between people, and to support reforms in Ukraine. The European neighbourhood policy is the foundation of our current work with Ukraine. Meanwhile, we do not prejudge the future. 7
Page 1 and 2: SPEECH/08/222 Olli Rehn EU Commissi
Page 3 and 4: Ladies and Gentlemen, I’m tempted
Page 5: But outside the EU’s borders, eve

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