Identifying marine protected areas for seabirds in UK ... - JNCC - Defra
Identifying marine protected areas for seabirds in UK ... - JNCC - Defra
Identifying marine protected areas for seabirds in UK ... - JNCC - Defra
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Ben Dean<br />
<strong>Identify<strong>in</strong>g</strong> <strong>mar<strong>in</strong>e</strong> <strong>protected</strong> <strong>areas</strong> <strong>for</strong><br />
<strong>seabirds</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>UK</strong> offshore waters<br />
Kerst<strong>in</strong> Kober,<br />
Andy Webb, Ilka W<strong>in</strong>, Mark Lewis, Sue O’Brien, L<strong>in</strong>da J Wilson and James B Reid<br />
Presented by L<strong>in</strong>da J Wilson<br />
<strong>JNCC</strong>, Aberdeen, <strong>UK</strong>
Background<br />
• Role of <strong>JNCC</strong>’s Seabirds at Sea team<br />
• SPAs: Special Protection Areas (Birds Directive)<br />
• SPAs to be designated <strong>for</strong> all <strong>UK</strong> <strong>seabirds</strong><br />
(except black guillemot)
A difficult task...<br />
• Number of species:<br />
petrels<br />
northern fulmar<br />
shearwaters<br />
Cory’s shearwater<br />
great shearwater<br />
sooty shearwater<br />
Manx shearwater<br />
storm petrels<br />
European storm-petrel<br />
Leach’s storm-petrel<br />
gannets<br />
northern gannet<br />
cormorants<br />
great cormorant<br />
European shag<br />
skuas<br />
po<strong>mar<strong>in</strong>e</strong> skua<br />
arctic skua<br />
long-tailed skua<br />
great skua<br />
gulls<br />
Mediterranean gull<br />
little gull<br />
black-headed gull<br />
common gull<br />
lesser black-backed gull<br />
herr<strong>in</strong>g gull<br />
Iceland gull<br />
glaucous gull<br />
great black-backed gull<br />
black-legged kittiwake<br />
terns<br />
Sandwich tern<br />
common tern<br />
arctic tern<br />
auks<br />
common guillemot<br />
razorbill<br />
little auk<br />
Atlantic puff<strong>in</strong><br />
• Different seasons<br />
31 species x relevant seasons = 57 assessments!<br />
• Size of area<br />
British fisheries limits = 750,000km 2
Alex Brown<br />
Kerst<strong>in</strong> Kober<br />
Available data?<br />
• <strong>UK</strong>-wide new survey not feasible<br />
analysis of exist<strong>in</strong>g data<br />
• The ESAS database<br />
• From 1978, >2 million records
Analysis steps<br />
1. Creation of density maps<br />
2. Hotspot identification<br />
3. Which hotspots qualify as SPAs?
1. Fill<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the gaps:<br />
Spatial <strong>in</strong>terpolation<br />
more weight<br />
?<br />
less weight<br />
• Krig<strong>in</strong>g – weights determ<strong>in</strong>ed by <strong>in</strong>herent spatial<br />
autocorrelation <strong>in</strong> the data
Log number of observations<br />
1. Fill<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the gaps:<br />
Poisson krig<strong>in</strong>g<br />
• Predictions based on Poisson distribution<br />
• Particularly suitable <strong>for</strong> zero-<strong>in</strong>flated data<br />
• Takes account of heterogeneous ef<strong>for</strong>t<br />
10000<br />
1000<br />
100<br />
10<br />
1<br />
0 0-10 10-20 20-30 30-40 More<br />
Density
Neil Gold<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Mike Brown<br />
1. Fill<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> the gaps:<br />
Results<br />
Shetland<br />
• Output:<br />
seabird density surfaces<br />
per species and season<br />
St Kilda<br />
Sula Sgeir<br />
Bass Rock<br />
Ailsa Craig<br />
Grassholm
Laurie Campbell<br />
2. Where are the hotspots?<br />
Getis-Ord Gi*<br />
• Indicates how high and clustered densities are
Neil Gold<strong>in</strong>g<br />
2. Where are the hotspots?<br />
Results<br />
Gi* output,<br />
Breed<strong>in</strong>g gannet<br />
• Maps of Gi* per species and season<br />
• Thresholds<br />
<strong>for</strong> example:<br />
- top 5% Gi*<br />
- top 1% Gi*
Annette Cutts<br />
3. Hotspots SPAs<br />
Which hotspots meet SPA guidel<strong>in</strong>es?<br />
• Two ma<strong>in</strong> guidel<strong>in</strong>es:<br />
(1) m<strong>in</strong>imum numbers<br />
(2) regularly present<br />
Top 1% highest density, aggregated <strong>areas</strong> (Gi*)
Overview<br />
Raw ESAS data<br />
Cont<strong>in</strong>uous<br />
density maps<br />
Hotspots<br />
Hotspots qualify<strong>in</strong>g<br />
as SPAs<br />
Poisson<br />
krig<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Getis-Ord Gi*<br />
SPA guidel<strong>in</strong>es
Possible SPAs?<br />
But there are gaps...<br />
• Species<br />
• Geographical range<br />
• Seasons<br />
Northern gannet,<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Great skua, breed<strong>in</strong>g<br />
Common guillemot,<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g<br />
European shag,<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g and w<strong>in</strong>ter<br />
Atlantic puff<strong>in</strong>,<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g<br />
...Further th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g required<br />
• Why are there gaps?<br />
• How can we address this?<br />
Manx shearwater,<br />
breed<strong>in</strong>g
Kerst<strong>in</strong> Kober<br />
Andy Webb<br />
Thanks to everybody who contributed to this work!<br />
• All contributors to the ESAS database<br />
• Highland statistics<br />
• Funded by <strong>Defra</strong>
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