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SEISMIC HAZARDS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE AND ...

SEISMIC HAZARDS IN THE NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE AND ...

Stein 10/18/03 4

Stein 10/18/03 4 ANALOGY: insurance agent wants to sell his latest and fanciest policy, but has no idea what it costs or what the benefits would be. Buy it now, or wait until the costs and benefits are clear? Most people would wait - good deal now will be a good deal next year. MY VIEW: "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence" (Carl Sagan) Evidence does not demonstrate the counterintuitive propositions that earthquake hazard in the NMSZ is comparable to that in coastal California and that buildings should be built to similar (expensive) standards. RECOMMENDATION: Don't adopt IBC 2003 unless unbiased and through cost/benefit study shows that it makes sense

Stein 10/18/03 5 WHAT WE KNOW about NMSZ Small-moderate (M

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