Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
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<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Motivation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
Moving Forward
<strong>Climate</strong> 2.0 - Usable Science for Society<br />
The fundamental question that society is asking<br />
of climate science has dramatically changed.<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> 1.0 Is anthropogenic climate change occurring?<br />
• Classic, low-res, global climate modeling & obs systems (past 40 years)<br />
• After IPCC AR4 findings, the question is now….<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> 2.0 What is the impact of this climate change<br />
on our coupled human & natural systems?<br />
• Magnitude <strong>and</strong> speed? Direct <strong>and</strong> indirect impacts?<br />
• Adaptation <strong>and</strong> mitigation - options & limits?<br />
• Regional/Local focus on “usable” science<br />
• Interlinked Systems: Energy, Food, Water, Health, Cities, Ecosystems<br />
• Societal <strong>Impacts</strong>: GIS, extremes, climate services<br />
Addressing these much more complex, questions requires:<br />
• Vast improvements to existing climate tools ( CESM & WRF/NRCM )<br />
• Integrating new approaches, priorities, capabilities,<br />
• New collaborators & partners<br />
Image courtesy of Canada DND
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Motivation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong><br />
IPCC<br />
Bridging the Social <strong>and</strong> Physical Sciences<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
Moving Forward
CCSM4 IPCC AR5 Simulations<br />
NCAR IBM P575 “Bluefire”
Multi-decadal Regional <strong>Climate</strong> Predictions of High-<br />
Impact Weather Over North America & the Caribbean<br />
36 km<br />
4 km<br />
12 km<br />
4 km<br />
• Global Model: 3 Ensembles from 1950-2060<br />
• NRCM: 1995-2005 Obs, 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055,<br />
• 3 ensembles at 36km, 1 at 12 km, specific cases at 4 km.<br />
• Use of statistical downscaling to fill in intermediate periods<br />
NCAR<br />
Greg Holl<strong>and</strong>
NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II<br />
A2 Emissions Scenario<br />
GFDL<br />
Time slice<br />
50 km<br />
GFDL<br />
CGCM3<br />
HADCM3<br />
CCSM<br />
CAM3<br />
Time slice<br />
50km<br />
1971-2000 current Provide boundary conditions 2041-2070 future<br />
MM5<br />
Iowa State/<br />
PNNL<br />
RegCM3<br />
UC Santa Cruz<br />
ICTP<br />
CRCM<br />
Quebec,<br />
Ouranos<br />
HADRM3<br />
Hadley Centre<br />
RSM<br />
Scripps<br />
WRF<br />
NCAR/<br />
PNNL<br />
www.narccap.ucar.edu<br />
(Linda Mearns / NCAR)
N-VIA: Quantifying Societal <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
to <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> Weather Risks<br />
Policies<br />
Decisions<br />
Governance<br />
Scenarios<br />
Resource use<br />
<strong>and</strong><br />
management<br />
<strong>Impacts</strong>, outcomes,<br />
decision-making<br />
Resource<br />
management<br />
(N-VIA: NCAR - Vulnerability, <strong>Impacts</strong>, Adaptation framework)
Extreme heat vulnerability research<br />
framework<br />
(Wilhelmi <strong>and</strong> Hayden (2010)
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Motivation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Natural resources<br />
Headwaters & Working with utilities (Yates)<br />
Ecosystem impacts<br />
CSAP Health, Cities, GIS programs<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
Moving Forward
InterAmerican Development Bank<br />
Sustainable Energy & <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Initiative<br />
“Support <strong>and</strong> advance our University consortium”<br />
International WRF Training & Scenarios.<br />
Lead: University of Nebraska, Lincoln<br />
Water/Ag Olmos, Lambayeque, Peru<br />
CCSM WRF Noah WEAP
Water/Ag/Hydro Project in Peru<br />
Precipitation<br />
Temperature!!
NCAR’s Water Cycle, “Headwater’s Program”
6-mo. Total Precipitation (mm) Comparison<br />
1 Nov. 2007-1 May 2008<br />
36 km 6 km 2 km <br />
SNOTEL Obs.
Vertical velocity along a cross section<br />
1 December 2007 0500 UTC<br />
Topography<br />
6 km 36 km
“Pseudo-Global Warming” (PGW) Methodology <br />
Schär et al (1996), Sato et al. (2007), Hara et al. (2008), <br />
Kawase et al. (2009)#<br />
1. Calculate perturbation in 10-yr monthly mean values of U, V, T, geopot.<br />
hgt., P sfc <strong>and</strong> Q v between current <strong>and</strong> future climate periods from a CGCM<br />
(1995-2005 <strong>and</strong> 2045-2055, SRES-A2, NCAR CCSM CGCM). #<br />
2. Add perturbation to current analyses of atmospheric conditions (North<br />
American Regional Reanalysis, 3-hrly) <strong>and</strong> extract regional model initial<br />
<strong>and</strong> lateral boundary conditions#<br />
Monthly mean of<br />
past condition<br />
CCSM 1995-2005<br />
Monthly mean of<br />
future condition<br />
CCSM 2045-2055<br />
Decadal monthly<br />
perturbation of<br />
CCSM<br />
NARR<br />
(initial <strong>and</strong> 3-hrly<br />
boundary conditions)<br />
Caveat:#<br />
<br />
No change in transient spectra (i.e. same climate variability in the future<br />
except for intensification of storms within the domain)#
700 mb Annual Mean Temperature<br />
from CCSM3 (A2)<br />
Current <strong>Climate</strong> : 1995-2005 Future <strong>Climate</strong> : 2045-2055<br />
Future - Current<br />
An increase of Q v is on<br />
the order of 15-20 %
Seasonal precipitation evolution over the CO<br />
Headwaters region#<br />
Sub-domain Average Precipitation<br />
2001-2002 2003-2004<br />
PGW<br />
Current <strong>Climate</strong><br />
2005-2006 2007-2008
6-mo. total precipitation map from PGW <strong>and</strong> Current <strong>Climate</strong><br />
simulations <strong>and</strong> differences<br />
1Nov. 2007 - 1 May 2008<br />
Current <strong>Climate</strong><br />
Total precipitation<br />
PGW<br />
(Precipitation)<br />
= PGW-Current<br />
(Snow)<br />
(Rain)<br />
Freezing level height increased by ~173 m, leading to a decrease of the area covered by snow by ~10%.<br />
Fraction of snow decreased by ~10% of the total grid cell precip. Fraction of rain increased by a similar amount.<br />
The PGW run indicates higher snowfall intensity at the mountain peaks.<br />
The increase in snow in the valleys suggests mesoscale circulation differences.
Colorado Springs Utilities IRP<br />
75% from West Slope 25% from East Side<br />
19
InterAmerican Development Bank<br />
Sustainable Energy & <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Initiative<br />
Water/Ag Olmos, Lambayeque, Peru<br />
CCSM WRF Noah WEAP
IDB International WRF Training & Scenarios.<br />
Lead: University of Nebraska, Lincoln<br />
WRF Training<br />
NCAR, July 2009<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Scenarios<br />
1. Mexico City - Jan 2010<br />
2, Panama – Aug 2010<br />
• Queretaro <strong>and</strong> Mexico: water resources l<strong>and</strong> use changes, denudation of hillsides.<br />
• Morelos:concerns that vast natural springs may have reduced<br />
• Tabasco:increase in the number, duration, <strong>and</strong> magnitude of the floods<br />
• Guerrero <strong>and</strong> Oaxaca: preserving their natural resources under future climate change<br />
• Yucatan: rising sea level & reduced precipitation/increased evaporation<br />
• Tamaulipas:impacts on agriculture <strong>and</strong> aquaculture
Continental-scale Natural Disturbances in Forests<br />
Warmer winter <strong>and</strong> drought<br />
Beetle infestation<br />
Forest burned area<br />
5 mm<br />
Mountain Pine Beetle<br />
Regions of identi,ied beetle infestation from <br />
aerial surveys from 1997-2005 (in red in the left <br />
panel) <strong>and</strong> burned area perimeters reported to <br />
the USGS from 2001-2007 (in gray in the right <br />
panel) for the western U.S<br />
22
Worst combination is<br />
beetle-killed + wildfire<br />
Beetle-killed lodge pole<br />
pine fueled a 473-acre<br />
wildfire near Fraser,<br />
Colorado, on October 4,<br />
2010.
Focus on biogeophysical effects<br />
• Local <strong>and</strong> watershed scale: produce<br />
10-year (2000-2010) surface<br />
reanalysis #<br />
– using 1-km uncoupled High Resolution<br />
L<strong>and</strong> Data Assimilation system<br />
(HRLDAS) with the Noah l<strong>and</strong> model #<br />
– Examine surface fluxes, soil moisture,<br />
snow, runoff with reanalysis with <strong>and</strong><br />
without disturbed forests #<br />
• Regional-continental scale: conduct<br />
high-resolution Weather Research<br />
<strong>and</strong> Forecasting (WRF)/Noah LSM<br />
regional climate simulations for<br />
selected summer <strong>and</strong> winter months#<br />
– Analyze precipitation <strong>and</strong> interannual<br />
climate variability #<br />
24
Manitou Site<br />
Hayman Site<br />
25
Weather, <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>and</strong> Health<br />
Mary Hayden, Andy Monaghan<br />
Ghana: The WX-Meningitis Project<br />
Phoenix: An Framework of local Vulnerability<br />
& Adaptive capacity to Extreme Heat<br />
North America: Aedes aegyti range<br />
expansion in the Americas<br />
Mexico: Dengue transects
North America: Aedes aegyti range<br />
expansion in the Americas
A village in rural Ug<strong>and</strong>a<br />
Photo courtesy of Brant Foote
Interviewing a witch doctor<br />
Photo courtesy of Brant Foote
The treatment room<br />
Photo courtesy of Brant Foote
Urban development <strong>and</strong> vulnerability<br />
Paty Romero-Lankao<br />
ADAPTE<br />
• Cities <strong>and</strong> climate are co-evolving in a<br />
manner that could place more populations at<br />
risk from exposure to extreme temperature<br />
<strong>and</strong> air pollution<br />
• ADAPTE brings together experts from<br />
different countries <strong>and</strong> disciplines<br />
• Independent <strong>and</strong> combined effects of climate,<br />
air pollution <strong>and</strong> social vulnerability on health<br />
outcomes<br />
• How populations are actually adapting Projected increased severity of the worst annual heat<br />
events by 2030. CCSM-3 simulations A2 scenario<br />
Source: Wilhelmi (2009).
NCAR GIS Program
CAPRA Example:<br />
Costa Rican earthquake <strong>and</strong> historical hurricane<br />
risk at canton level, using a general socioeconomic<br />
model to assess exposed value <strong>and</strong> vulnerability.<br />
What is Costa Rica’s risk in 2050?
Knowledge Innovation at the Science-Policy Interface
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Motivation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> change <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
Next Steps
<strong>Climate</strong> Services:<br />
“The timely production <strong>and</strong> delivery of useful climate<br />
data, information <strong>and</strong> knowledge to decision makers”<br />
(NRC, 2001)<br />
“Give me information in such a way that I can make decisions at a local<br />
level. What does this mean for me in the next 3-5 years”<br />
• Jargon-free, clear,<br />
• actionable,<br />
• expose the uncertainties<br />
• Science-brokers/translators are important<br />
(Pew Report “Lost in Translation”)<br />
“Official” climate products & processes allow planners to<br />
make major, climate-informed, infrastructure decisions<br />
….<strong>and</strong> stay out of court.
<strong>Climate</strong> Services:<br />
“Official” climate products & processes allow planners to make major,<br />
climate-informed, infrastructure decisions…. <strong>and</strong> stay out of court.<br />
• Decision makers are being approached by many consultants,<br />
but can’t tell good from bad<br />
• How to define ‘official’ or ‘certified’ processes?<br />
• What metrics would regions/sectors have for success?<br />
• What baselines are needed <strong>and</strong> who creates them<br />
• Effective quantification & communication of uncertainty <strong>and</strong> applicability?<br />
• Issued ≠ perfect (e.g. NWS weather forecasts)<br />
• WH OSTP/CEQ: not 1 big center, nor many new small centers,<br />
-> interface between existing data centers <strong>and</strong> local knowledge expertise<br />
• Connecting existing public & private sector data <strong>and</strong> decision networks?<br />
• Roles <strong>and</strong> Responsibilities –<br />
NOAA operations <strong>and</strong> research, NCAR research, private industry –<br />
• Structure still under development, yet decisions are being made NOW
<strong>Climate</strong> Services in US:<br />
NOAA <strong>Climate</strong> Services (NCS):<br />
• Tom Karl (NCDC) & Chet Koblinsky (CPO) interim leads<br />
• Sep. Nat’l Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) report,<br />
Affirmed NOAA as lead agency<br />
Suggested realignment of existing groups<br />
• Six Regional <strong>Climate</strong> directors named (at NWS centers)<br />
• RISAs (Regional Integrated Science & <strong>Assessments</strong>)<br />
• Sep. Vision/Mission draft, draft Implementation plan,<br />
1. <strong>Climate</strong> impacts on water resources<br />
2. Coasts <strong>and</strong> climate resilience<br />
3. Sustainability of marine ecosystems<br />
4. <strong>Change</strong>s in extremes in weather <strong>and</strong> <strong>Climate</strong><br />
5. Informing climate policy
US <strong>Climate</strong> Services beyond NOAA:<br />
Dept of Interior<br />
• New <strong>Climate</strong> Science Centers ( including one at CSU)<br />
• MOU with NOAA on <strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
• Reclaimation: Statistical & Dyamical Downscaling products.<br />
Other Agencies<br />
• EPA, NASA, USDA, DOE, DOD, FAA etc<br />
NCAS <strong>and</strong> upcoming National <strong>Climate</strong> Assessment<br />
• Nat’l <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Adaptation Task Force report<br />
• <strong>Climate</strong> Services <strong>and</strong> Information Roundtable<br />
International<br />
• Numerous national climate services offices being set up, usually<br />
connected with national weather service offices<br />
• WMO High-level Taskforce - Global Framework for <strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
(GFCS). Report due out next year.<br />
• International climate services director's workshop in Fall 2011<br />
• Of great interest to international aid <strong>and</strong> development agencies
<strong>Climate</strong> Services at NCAR:<br />
• RAL’s ‘Science in Service to Society” programs<br />
• New CCSM end-user applications working group<br />
• Obs data <strong>and</strong> WRF downscaling products at the forefront<br />
• NARCCAP multi-model approach being accepted<br />
• Data systems (Earth System Grid) to be linked to GIP<br />
• Pilot project with Water Utilities <strong>Climate</strong> Alliance<br />
Opportunities<br />
• Increasing focus on “applicable climate science”<br />
• UCAR universities input to climate adaptation studies<br />
• End-to-end systems: Science->Decision making<br />
• Great need for capacity building, curricula & training<br />
Risks<br />
• As a research org, how to stay out of operations (& court)<br />
• Doing a credible job in a challenging political <strong>and</strong> budget env
<strong>Climate</strong> Services Pilot Project <br />
• Pilo@ng U@lity Modeling Applica@ons (PUMA) <br />
• NOAA/NCAR Collabora@on with WUCA <br />
• Pilot project on large-‐scale water availability <strong>and</strong> <br />
storm / waste water drainage. <br />
• What climate products do WUCA members need?<br />
Global -> Regional -> Hydrology -> Decision Mgt<br />
CESM WRF LSM WEAP/LEAP<br />
SoCal Water Reserves<br />
WUCA: Water Utilities <strong>Climate</strong> Alliance<br />
• Denver Water,<br />
• Metropolitan Water District of Southern California,<br />
• NYC Department of Environmental Protection,<br />
• Portl<strong>and</strong> Water Bureau <strong>and</strong><br />
• San Diego County Water Authority,<br />
• San Francisco Public Utilities Commission,<br />
• Seattle Public Utilities<br />
• Southern Nevada Water Authority.
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong> <strong>and</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
Motivation<br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Assessments</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong><br />
<strong>Climate</strong> Services<br />
Moving Forward
Moving Forward<br />
• Keep focus on building NCAR’s Social Science program<br />
• Build partnerships in the Social Sciences community<br />
• Collaborations with non-traditional NCAR partners<br />
CDC, IDB/ADB/WB, USAID, UN<br />
• Update CSAP Strategic Plan<br />
Current plan reflects old structure<br />
NCAR
Spin, Science <strong>and</strong> <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong><br />
“<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong><br />
is undeniable”<br />
“<strong>Climate</strong>gate”<br />
4 Core Conclusions from <strong>Climate</strong> Science<br />
1. <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> is occurring.<br />
2. Main cause is human activity.<br />
3. <strong>Change</strong>s in climate are already<br />
harming humans & the environment.<br />
4. Harm is like to grow to higher levels<br />
w/o extensive Adaptation & Mitigation<br />
Robust results, independent of hacked<br />
emails or minor errata in the IPCC report<br />
“Society has three choices: Mitigate, Adapt or Suffer”<br />
John Holdren (US Science Adviser)
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