Climate Change Assessments and Impacts

Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Motivation
Climate Change Assessments
Climate Change Impacts
Climate Services
Moving Forward

Climate 2.0 - Usable Science for Society
The fundamental question that society is asking
of climate science has dramatically changed.
Climate 1.0 Is anthropogenic climate change occurring?
• Classic, low-res, global climate modeling & obs systems (past 40 years)
• After IPCC AR4 findings, the question is now….
Climate 2.0 What is the impact of this climate change
on our coupled human & natural systems?
• Magnitude and speed? Direct and indirect impacts?
• Adaptation and mitigation - options & limits?
• Regional/Local focus on “usable” science
• Interlinked Systems: Energy, Food, Water, Health, Cities, Ecosystems
• Societal Impacts: GIS, extremes, climate services
Addressing these much more complex, questions requires:
• Vast improvements to existing climate tools ( CESM & WRF/NRCM )
• Integrating new approaches, priorities, capabilities,
• New collaborators & partners
Image courtesy of Canada DND

Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Motivation
Climate Change Assessments
IPCC
Bridging the Social and Physical Sciences
Climate Change Impacts
Climate Services
Moving Forward

CCSM4 IPCC AR5 Simulations
NCAR IBM P575 “Bluefire”

Multi-decadal Regional Climate Predictions of High-
Impact Weather Over North America & the Caribbean
36 km
4 km
12 km
4 km
• Global Model: 3 Ensembles from 1950-2060
• NRCM: 1995-2005 Obs, 1995-2005, 2020-2030, 2045-2055,
• 3 ensembles at 36km, 1 at 12 km, specific cases at 4 km.
• Use of statistical downscaling to fill in intermediate periods
NCAR
Greg Holland

NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II
A2 Emissions Scenario
GFDL
Time slice
50 km
GFDL
CGCM3
HADCM3
CCSM
CAM3
Time slice
50km
1971-2000 current Provide boundary conditions 2041-2070 future
MM5
Iowa State/
PNNL
RegCM3
UC Santa Cruz
ICTP
CRCM
Quebec,
Ouranos
HADRM3
Hadley Centre
RSM
Scripps
WRF
NCAR/
PNNL
www.narccap.ucar.edu
(Linda Mearns / NCAR)

N-VIA: Quantifying Societal Impacts
to Climate and Weather Risks
Policies
Decisions
Governance
Scenarios
Resource use
and
management
Impacts, outcomes,
decision-making
Resource
management
(N-VIA: NCAR - Vulnerability, Impacts, Adaptation framework)

Extreme heat vulnerability research
framework
(Wilhelmi and Hayden (2010)

Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Motivation
Climate Change Assessments
Climate Change Impacts
Natural resources
Headwaters & Working with utilities (Yates)
Ecosystem impacts
CSAP Health, Cities, GIS programs
Climate Services
Moving Forward

InterAmerican Development Bank
Sustainable Energy & Climate Change Initiative
“Support and advance our University consortium”
International WRF Training & Scenarios.
Lead: University of Nebraska, Lincoln
Water/Ag Olmos, Lambayeque, Peru
CCSM WRF Noah WEAP

Water/Ag/Hydro Project in Peru
Precipitation
Temperature!!

NCAR’s Water Cycle, “Headwater’s Program”

6-mo. Total Precipitation (mm) Comparison
1 Nov. 2007-1 May 2008
36 km 6 km 2 km
SNOTEL Obs.

Vertical velocity along a cross section
1 December 2007 0500 UTC
Topography
6 km 36 km

“Pseudo-Global Warming” (PGW) Methodology
Schär et al (1996), Sato et al. (2007), Hara et al. (2008),
Kawase et al. (2009)#
1. Calculate perturbation in 10-yr monthly mean values of U, V, T, geopot.
hgt., P sfc and Q v between current and future climate periods from a CGCM
(1995-2005 and 2045-2055, SRES-A2, NCAR CCSM CGCM). #
2. Add perturbation to current analyses of atmospheric conditions (North
American Regional Reanalysis, 3-hrly) and extract regional model initial
and lateral boundary conditions#
Monthly mean of
past condition
CCSM 1995-2005
Monthly mean of
future condition
CCSM 2045-2055
Decadal monthly
perturbation of
CCSM
NARR
(initial and 3-hrly
boundary conditions)
Caveat:#
No change in transient spectra (i.e. same climate variability in the future
except for intensification of storms within the domain)#

700 mb Annual Mean Temperature
from CCSM3 (A2)
Current Climate : 1995-2005 Future Climate : 2045-2055
Future - Current
An increase of Q v is on
the order of 15-20 %

Seasonal precipitation evolution over the CO
Headwaters region#
Sub-domain Average Precipitation
2001-2002 2003-2004
PGW
Current Climate
2005-2006 2007-2008

6-mo. total precipitation map from PGW and Current Climate
simulations and differences
1Nov. 2007 - 1 May 2008
Current Climate
Total precipitation
PGW
(Precipitation)
= PGW-Current
(Snow)
(Rain)
Freezing level height increased by ~173 m, leading to a decrease of the area covered by snow by ~10%.
Fraction of snow decreased by ~10% of the total grid cell precip. Fraction of rain increased by a similar amount.
The PGW run indicates higher snowfall intensity at the mountain peaks.
The increase in snow in the valleys suggests mesoscale circulation differences.

Colorado Springs Utilities IRP
75% from West Slope 25% from East Side
19

InterAmerican Development Bank
Sustainable Energy & Climate Change Initiative
Water/Ag Olmos, Lambayeque, Peru
CCSM WRF Noah WEAP

IDB International WRF Training & Scenarios.
Lead: University of Nebraska, Lincoln
WRF Training
NCAR, July 2009
Climate Scenarios
1. Mexico City - Jan 2010
2, Panama – Aug 2010
• Queretaro and Mexico: water resources land use changes, denudation of hillsides.
• Morelos:concerns that vast natural springs may have reduced
• Tabasco:increase in the number, duration, and magnitude of the floods
• Guerrero and Oaxaca: preserving their natural resources under future climate change
• Yucatan: rising sea level & reduced precipitation/increased evaporation
• Tamaulipas:impacts on agriculture and aquaculture

Continental-scale Natural Disturbances in Forests
Warmer winter and drought
Beetle infestation
Forest burned area
5 mm
Mountain Pine Beetle
Regions of identi,ied beetle infestation from
aerial surveys from 1997-2005 (in red in the left
panel) and burned area perimeters reported to
the USGS from 2001-2007 (in gray in the right
panel) for the western U.S
22

Worst combination is
beetle-killed + wildfire
Beetle-killed lodge pole
pine fueled a 473-acre
wildfire near Fraser,
Colorado, on October 4,
2010.

Focus on biogeophysical effects
• Local and watershed scale: produce
10-year (2000-2010) surface
reanalysis #
– using 1-km uncoupled High Resolution
Land Data Assimilation system
(HRLDAS) with the Noah land model #
– Examine surface fluxes, soil moisture,
snow, runoff with reanalysis with and
without disturbed forests #
• Regional-continental scale: conduct
high-resolution Weather Research
and Forecasting (WRF)/Noah LSM
regional climate simulations for
selected summer and winter months#
– Analyze precipitation and interannual
climate variability #
24

Manitou Site
Hayman Site
25

Weather, Climate and Health
Mary Hayden, Andy Monaghan
Ghana: The WX-Meningitis Project
Phoenix: An Framework of local Vulnerability
& Adaptive capacity to Extreme Heat
North America: Aedes aegyti range
expansion in the Americas
Mexico: Dengue transects

North America: Aedes aegyti range
expansion in the Americas

A village in rural Uganda
Photo courtesy of Brant Foote

Interviewing a witch doctor
Photo courtesy of Brant Foote

The treatment room
Photo courtesy of Brant Foote

Urban development and vulnerability
Paty Romero-Lankao
ADAPTE
• Cities and climate are co-evolving in a
manner that could place more populations at
risk from exposure to extreme temperature
and air pollution
• ADAPTE brings together experts from
different countries and disciplines
• Independent and combined effects of climate,
air pollution and social vulnerability on health
outcomes
• How populations are actually adapting Projected increased severity of the worst annual heat
events by 2030. CCSM-3 simulations A2 scenario
Source: Wilhelmi (2009).

NCAR GIS Program

CAPRA Example:
Costa Rican earthquake and historical hurricane
risk at canton level, using a general socioeconomic
model to assess exposed value and vulnerability.
What is Costa Rica’s risk in 2050?

Knowledge Innovation at the Science-Policy Interface

Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Motivation
Climate Change Assessments
Climate change Impacts
Climate Services
Next Steps

Climate Services:
“The timely production and delivery of useful climate
data, information and knowledge to decision makers”
(NRC, 2001)
“Give me information in such a way that I can make decisions at a local
level. What does this mean for me in the next 3-5 years”
• Jargon-free, clear,
• actionable,
• expose the uncertainties
• Science-brokers/translators are important
(Pew Report “Lost in Translation”)
“Official” climate products & processes allow planners to
make major, climate-informed, infrastructure decisions
….and stay out of court.

Climate Services:
“Official” climate products & processes allow planners to make major,
climate-informed, infrastructure decisions…. and stay out of court.
• Decision makers are being approached by many consultants,
but can’t tell good from bad
• How to define ‘official’ or ‘certified’ processes?
• What metrics would regions/sectors have for success?
• What baselines are needed and who creates them
• Effective quantification & communication of uncertainty and applicability?
• Issued ≠ perfect (e.g. NWS weather forecasts)
• WH OSTP/CEQ: not 1 big center, nor many new small centers,
-> interface between existing data centers and local knowledge expertise
• Connecting existing public & private sector data and decision networks?
• Roles and Responsibilities –
NOAA operations and research, NCAR research, private industry –
• Structure still under development, yet decisions are being made NOW

Climate Services in US:
NOAA Climate Services (NCS):
• Tom Karl (NCDC) & Chet Koblinsky (CPO) interim leads
• Sep. Nat’l Academy of Public Administration (NAPA) report,
Affirmed NOAA as lead agency
Suggested realignment of existing groups
• Six Regional Climate directors named (at NWS centers)
• RISAs (Regional Integrated Science & Assessments)
• Sep. Vision/Mission draft, draft Implementation plan,
1. Climate impacts on water resources
2. Coasts and climate resilience
3. Sustainability of marine ecosystems
4. Changes in extremes in weather and Climate
5. Informing climate policy

US Climate Services beyond NOAA:
Dept of Interior
• New Climate Science Centers ( including one at CSU)
• MOU with NOAA on Climate Services
• Reclaimation: Statistical & Dyamical Downscaling products.
Other Agencies
• EPA, NASA, USDA, DOE, DOD, FAA etc
NCAS and upcoming National Climate Assessment
• Nat’l Climate Change Adaptation Task Force report
• Climate Services and Information Roundtable
International
• Numerous national climate services offices being set up, usually
connected with national weather service offices
• WMO High-level Taskforce - Global Framework for Climate Services
(GFCS). Report due out next year.
• International climate services director's workshop in Fall 2011
• Of great interest to international aid and development agencies

Climate Services at NCAR:
• RAL’s ‘Science in Service to Society” programs
• New CCSM end-user applications working group
• Obs data and WRF downscaling products at the forefront
• NARCCAP multi-model approach being accepted
• Data systems (Earth System Grid) to be linked to GIP
• Pilot project with Water Utilities Climate Alliance
Opportunities
• Increasing focus on “applicable climate science”
• UCAR universities input to climate adaptation studies
• End-to-end systems: Science->Decision making
• Great need for capacity building, curricula & training
Risks
• As a research org, how to stay out of operations (& court)
• Doing a credible job in a challenging political and budget env

Climate Services Pilot Project
• Pilo@ng U@lity Modeling Applica@ons (PUMA)
• NOAA/NCAR Collabora@on with WUCA
• Pilot project on large-­‐scale water availability and
storm / waste water drainage.
• What climate products do WUCA members need?
Global -> Regional -> Hydrology -> Decision Mgt
CESM WRF LSM WEAP/LEAP
SoCal Water Reserves
WUCA: Water Utilities Climate Alliance
• Denver Water,
• Metropolitan Water District of Southern California,
• NYC Department of Environmental Protection,
• Portland Water Bureau and
• San Diego County Water Authority,
• San Francisco Public Utilities Commission,
• Seattle Public Utilities
• Southern Nevada Water Authority.

Climate Change Assessments and Impacts
Motivation
Climate Change Assessments
Climate Change Impacts
Climate Services
Moving Forward

Moving Forward
• Keep focus on building NCAR’s Social Science program
• Build partnerships in the Social Sciences community
• Collaborations with non-traditional NCAR partners
CDC, IDB/ADB/WB, USAID, UN
• Update CSAP Strategic Plan
Current plan reflects old structure
NCAR

Spin, Science and Climate Change
“Climate Change
is undeniable”
“Climategate”
4 Core Conclusions from Climate Science
1. Climate Change is occurring.
2. Main cause is human activity.
3. Changes in climate are already
harming humans & the environment.
4. Harm is like to grow to higher levels
w/o extensive Adaptation & Mitigation
Robust results, independent of hacked
emails or minor errata in the IPCC report
“Society has three choices: Mitigate, Adapt or Suffer”
John Holdren (US Science Adviser)