Climate and Weather Data to Serve Societal Needs

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Climate and Weather Data to Serve Societal Needs

Climate and Weather Data

to Serve Societal Needs

POP 0.1 degree - Bryan NCAR

CAM T341- Jim Hack NCAR/ORNL

Caspar Ammann (ammann@ucar.edu)

National Center for Atmospheric Research

NCAR


Future Climate data to

serve societal needs

• Old Dreams - New Tools

• Challenges

• complex Earth System

• challenges of scales

• computational balance

Climate services - Bridging Disciplines

• Cross-Disciplinary Modeling

• Engagement - Translational Information

“Science exists to serve human welfare. It’s wonderful to have the opportunity given us by

society to do basic research, but in return, we have a very important moral responsibility to

apply that research to benefiting humanity.” Walter Orr Roberts


A Dream in 1922

“Myriad computers are at work upon the weather of the part of the map where each

sits, but each computer attends only to one equation or part of an equation. ”

Lewis Fry Richardson, Weather Prediction by Numerical Process (1922)

3


A Dream Today?

Seamless integration of data with

reduced uncertainties

Provide sector specific climate data

4


Tools: Weather vs Climate

Outlook

Guidance

Threats

Assessments

Forecasts

Watches

Warnings &

Alert

Coordination

Forecast Lead Time

Protection of

Life & Property

Minutes

Flood Mitigation

& Navigation

Hours

Days

Space

Operation

1 Week

2 Week

Transportation

Fire Weather

Months

Initial Conditions

Hydropower

Seasons

Benefits

Agriculture

Reservoir

Control

Recreation

Years

Climate

Prediction

Weather

Prediction

Ecosystem

Energy

Health

Forecast

Uncertainty

Boundary Conditions

Climate

Change

Commerce

State/Local

Planning

Slide: Trenberth

Environment


Weather Modeling

M

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6


Climate Modeling

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Model Transformation

Mean and Variability

Surface Air Temperature

Model

El Niño-Variability

Model

Observations

SST

Observations

Observations

AR3 / AR4

AR4 / AR5

8


Seamless Past-Present-Future

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10


Temperature

2030

Averages,

Extremes


Precipitation

2030

Averages,

Extremes


CCSM Structure

CCSM Management

CCSM Scientific Steering Committee (Jim Hurrell, Chief Scientist)

CCSM Advisory Board (chair: Michele Rienecker, NASA)

Working Groups

Development

Application

Atm

Model

Ocean

Model

Land

Model

Polar

Climate

BioGeo

Chem

Chemistry

Climate

WACCM

Climate Change

PaleoClimate

Climate Variability

Software Engineering

CCSM is primarily sponsored by

the National Science Foundation

and the Department of Energy


Modeler’s Dilemma

How to allocate resources?

• Complexity

– Carbon, atmospheric chemistry, !

• Resolution

– Better local information

– Extreme events (hurricanes, etc.)

• Ensemble number

– More clearly define signal and

noise

Slide: Ron Stouffer, GFDL


Regional Earth-System Modeling

Surface Energy Fluxes Hydrology Carbon/Nitrogen Cycling

Urbanization

CLM4

Vegetation

Dynamics

Land Use & Change

Permafrost Bonan (2009)

NCAR


300

T42 2.8°

310km

IPCC AR3

1998

Global

General

Atm/Ocn

Circulation

250

Horizontal Grid Size (Km)

200

150

100

FV 2.0°

T85 1.4°

FV 1.0°

T170 0.7°

220km

160km

110km

78km

IPCC AR4

2004 4TF

Continental Scale

Flow

Carbon Cycle

+ BGC Spinups

Regional

MJO/MLC

Convergence

50

0

FV 0.5°

T340 .36°

FV 0.25°

FV 0.1°

55km

39km

28km

11km

Lawrence Buja (NCAR)

IPCC AR5

2010 500TF

CCSM Grand

Challenge

2010 1PF

Sub-Regional

Hurricanes


Probablistic Climate Simulations

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Climate Services

Bridging science to local needs

“The timely production and delivery of useful climate

data, information and knowledge to decision makers”

(NRC, 2001)

“Give me information in such a way that I can make decisions at a

local level. What does this mean for me in the next N years”

• Jargon-free, clear,

• actionable,

• expose the uncertainties

• Science-brokers/translators are important

(Pew Report “Lost in Translation”)

“Official” climate products & processes allow planners to

make major, climate-informed, infrastructure decisions

!.and stay out of court.


Downscaling : Dynamical / statistical

Winkler et al. 2011

19


Resolution Requirements: Terrain

6-mo. Total Precipitation (mm) Comparison

1 Nov. 2007-1 May 2008

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Precision WRF: WRF-Hurricane,

WRF-Chem, WRF-Health, WRF-Crop

WRF Chem predicting CO concentrations across US

based on known emissions and prevailing weather

Barth

NCAR

(Barth 2010)

NCAR


O’Malley (DOI)

different efforts

to bridge tools to needs

22


NOAA Climate Prediction

and Projections (NCPP)

Community Framework towards climate services

23


model Differences

24


NARCCAP PLAN – Phase II

A2 Emissions Scenario

GFDL

Time slice

50 km

GFDL

CGCM3

HADCM3

CCSM

CAM3

Time slice

50km

1971-2000 current Provide boundary conditions 2041-2070 future

MM5

Iowa State/

PNNL

RegCM3

UC Santa Cruz

ICTP

CRCM

Quebec,

Ouranos

HADRM3

Hadley Centre

RSM

Scripps

WRF

NCAR/

PNNL

http://www.narccap.ucar.edu

Linda Mearns / NCAR


Slide: R. Rood


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what data are of

core interest to

your community?

Local Extreme Precipitation

1900

Regional Glacier Collapse

200

3

Global Sea Level Rise

28


Access: Earth System Grid

ESG Goals

• Petabyte-scale data volumes

• Globally federated sites

• “Virtual Datasets” created through

subsetting and aggregation

• Metadata-based search and discovery

• Bulk data access

• Web-based and analysis tool access

• Increased flexibility and robustness

Current ESG Sites

http://www.earthsystemgrid.org

http://www-pcmdi.llnl.gov


Thanks! Any Questions?

... please send me your

climate data needs ...

Caspar Ammann, National Center for Atmospheric Research

email: ammann@ucar.edu

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